Brody Fowler

P FCL Braves

Age 23 RHP ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.6 · 2030

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1147ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX3 levels	19	12	75	5.26	5.37	23.1%	7.8%	—	K 15.1% · BB 7.1% · FIP 7.25
2027PROJ	23	MLBATL	—	—	0	4.91	4.91	17.6%	7.4%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBATL	4	4	25	4.77	4.72	19.2%	7.4%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBATL	6	6	37	4.66	4.61	20.2%	7.4%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsDustin McGowan (age 23) · Nick Fraze (age 23) · Nick Payero (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

K%17.6%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%10.2%

Proj IP47

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	12	75	334	77	26	19	63%	4.0	15.1%	7.1%	8.0%	8.2%	5.26	7.25	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	12	75	334	77	26	19	63%	4.0	15.1%	7.1%	8.0%	8.2%	5.26	7.25	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	12	75	334	77	26	19	63%	4.0	23.1%	7.8%	15.3%	5.7%	5.26	5.37	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.6%	7.4%	10.2%	3.6%	4.91	4.91	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	ATL	9	9	59	250	48	18	9	100%	6.6	19.2%	7.4%	11.8%	3.5%	4.77	4.72	+0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	ATL	9	9	56	237	48	17	8	100%	6.2	20.2%	7.4%	12.8%	3.5%	4.66	4.61	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	ATL	9	9	56	236	49	18	8	100%	6.2	20.6%	7.4%	13.2%	3.4%	4.60	4.56	+0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	ATL	9	9	54	230	48	17	8	100%	6.0	20.7%	7.5%	13.2%	3.5%	4.60	4.60	+0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	ATL	8	8	52	218	45	17	8	100%	6.5	20.6%	7.7%	12.9%	3.6%	4.65	4.68	+0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	ATL	8	8	48	201	41	16	8	100%	6.0	20.3%	7.9%	12.4%	3.7%	4.75	4.81	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	ATL	4	4	25	106	20	8	4	100%	6.2	19.2%	7.4%	11.8%	3.5%	4.77	4.72	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	ATL	6	6	37	156	31	12	5	100%	6.2	20.2%	7.4%	12.8%	3.5%	4.66	4.61	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	ATL	7	7	44	186	38	14	6	100%	6.3	20.6%	7.4%	13.2%	3.4%	4.60	4.56	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	ATL	7	7	46	194	40	15	7	100%	6.6	20.7%	7.5%	13.2%	3.5%	4.60	4.60	+0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	ATL	7	7	46	194	40	15	7	100%	6.6	20.6%	7.7%	12.9%	3.6%	4.65	4.68	+0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	ATL	7	7	43	182	37	14	7	100%	6.1	20.3%	7.9%	12.4%	3.7%	4.75	4.81	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		39	39	242	1023	208	77	36	100%	6.2	20.4%	7.6%	12.8%	3.5%	4.66	4.28	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	172	64	30	100%	6.3	20.4%	7.6%	12.8%	3.5%	4.66	4.28	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		19	12	75	334	50	24	28	63%	4.0	15.1%	7.1%	8.0%	8.2%	5.26	7.25	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	32	200	887	134	63	73	63%	4.0	15.1%	7.1%	8.0%	8.2%	5.26	7.25	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Braves · 40 IPFIP 4.63 → 6.68 (+2.05)K% 26.0% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.99%	—	×0.680	17.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.34%	—	×1.250	9.18%
HR / BF /BF	5.08%	÷1.000	×1.400	7.12%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.63 → 6.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAugusta GreenJackets · 27 IPFIP 6.43 → 8.10 (+1.67)K% 15.3% → 11.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.25%	—	×0.740	11.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.39%	—	×1.180	4.00%
HR / BF /BF	7.63%	÷1.000	×1.300	9.92%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.43 → 8.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Rome Emperors · 8 IPFIP 4.62 → 6.05 (+1.44)K% 33.3% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.770	25.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	23.08%	—	×1.150	26.54%
HR / BF /BF	2.56%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.21%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.62 → 6.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brody Fowler (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	17.6%	7.4%	3.6%	—	4.63	20.0%	12.6%	171	-0.28	—	—	—
Dustin McGowan R 2005 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.6%	8.3%	3.4%	.286	3.65	19.1%	10.3%	308	-0.97	3.36	690	89
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.69	18.1%	10.4%	162	+0.20	3.86	278	89
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	88
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	88
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	88
Cha Seung Baek R 2004 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP-	4.77	14.4%	7.2%	3.6%	.288	3.95	15.7%	10.0%	108	-0.82	3.35	280	86
Jake Odorizzi R 2013 · 3.80 FIP	23	SP-	3.80	18.0%	6.6%	2.5%	.281	3.84	22.3%	15.2%	525	+0.04	3.16	1,246	85
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	83
Tim Redding R 2001 · 4.88 FIP	23	SP-	4.88	22.1%	9.6%	4.4%	.321	4.34	15.1%	6.6%	350	-0.54	3.97	822	83
Matthew DeRosier R 2017 · 3.89 FIP	23	SP-	3.89	16.6%	6.6%	2.5%	.294	5.67	15.1%	6.0%	57	+1.78	2.72	200	83
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	83
Sergio Mitre R 2004 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	15.2%	7.8%	2.5%	.357	4.16	13.2%	6.5%	250	+0.00	3.55	602	82
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	82
Brandon Maurer R 2013 · 4.72 FIP	23	SP-	4.72	17.4%	6.7%	4.1%	.339	3.21	20.5%	14.5%	190	-1.51	3.08	394	82
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	81
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	81
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.42	20.6%	11.4%	217	-0.41	3.07	280	81
Clay Chandler R 2017 · 4.97 FIP	23	SP-	4.97	18.3%	6.0%	4.8%	.319	4.89	14.8%	8.8%	293	-0.08	4.49	328	81
Kyle Scott R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	22	SP-	4.12	17.7%	8.2%	2.7%	.269	3.94	15.9%	4.3%	42	-0.18	3.94	138	81
Andrew Good R 2003 · 5.29 FIP	23	SP-	5.29	14.5%	4.5%	5.2%	.269	5.27	14.7%	7.4%	41	-0.02	5.27	107	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	53	19.9%	7.5%	1.37	4.70
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Juan Carlos Oviedo ('14)	1.9	56	18.9%	8.0%	1.16	4.28
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*
Bob Patterson ('85-'98, 4 WAR*)	3.1	51	23.0%*	6.7%*	1.32*	4.33*