David Rodriguez — OGILVIE

David Rodriguez P ACL Royals

Age 22 LHP 5'11" / 152 lbs ROK peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 18 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98106vR 114

ERA4.24

FIP4.24

K%21.1%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%13.7%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL KC Stewart	13	0	24	102	19	6	2	0%	1.8	12.7%	7.4%	5.3%	2.4%	3.00	4.25	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL KC Stewart	13	0	24	102	19	6	2	0%	1.8	18.6%	5.9%	12.7%	2.0%	3.00	3.35	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Blue	12	0	29	111	35	3	1	0%	2.4	21.4%	3.4%	18.1%	1.4%	1.84	2.48	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Blue	12	0	29	111	35	3	1	0%	2.4	21.4%	3.4%	18.1%	1.4%	1.84	2.48	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Blue	12	0	29	111	35	3	1	0%	2.4	31.5%	2.7%	28.8%	0.9%	1.84	1.46	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	10	9	40	156	35	12	0	90%	4.0	15.3%	9.6%	5.6%	0.0%	2.25	3.03	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	10	9	40	156	35	12	0	90%	4.0	15.3%	9.6%	5.6%	0.0%	2.25	3.03	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Ventura	10	9	40	156	35	12	0	90%	4.0	22.4%	7.7%	14.7%	0.0%	2.25	2.25	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	8	4	26	110	32	5	2	50%	3.3	19.8%	5.7%	14.1%	2.7%	2.39	3.64	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	8	4	26	110	32	5	2	50%	3.3	19.8%	5.7%	14.1%	2.7%	2.39	3.64	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	8	4	26	110	32	5	2	50%	3.3	29.1%	4.5%	24.5%	1.8%	2.39	2.23	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	5	1	9	48	9	10	1	20%	1.8	—	—	—	—	7.00	—	—
YTD	22	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	5	1	9	48	9	10	1	20%	1.8	—	—	—	—	7.00	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	KC	5	1	9	48	9	10	1	20%	1.8	18.8%	20.8%	-2.1%	2.1%	7.00	5.30	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	KC	36	0	37	158	35	11	5	0%	1.0	22.0%	7.2%	14.8%	2.9%	4.17	4.12	+0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	KC	17	0	18	76	17	6	2	0%	1.1	22.0%	7.2%	14.8%	2.9%	4.17	4.12	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	0	18	78	17	6	2	0%	1.0	22.0%	7.2%	14.8%	2.9%	4.17	3.74	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	185	65	22	0%	1.1	22.0%	7.2%	14.8%	2.9%	4.17	3.74	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		48	14	129	527	91	42	8	29%	2.7	17.3%	8.1%	9.3%	1.5%	2.66	3.49	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	22	200	819	142	66	12	29%	2.7	17.3%	8.1%	9.3%	1.5%	2.66	3.49	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.24	21.1%	7.4%	2.9%	—	4.12	22.0%	14.8%	37	-0.12	—	—	—
Josh Hendrickson L 2019 · 3.80 FIP	21	SW	3.80	21.8%	6.7%	3.1%	.250	4.67	19.3%	10.9%	110	+0.87	3.80	365	87
Adrian Gusman L 2015 · 3.41 FIP	23	SW	3.41	16.5%	6.6%	1.6%	.280	3.68	15.0%	7.2%	63	+0.27	2.94	141	82
Jacques Pucheu L 2019 · 3.06 FIP	22	SW	3.06	19.2%	8.4%	0.9%	.292	4.49	20.6%	8.4%	99	+1.43	3.06	134	80
Sam Long L 2016 · 3.26 FIP	21	SW	3.26	20.7%	9.8%	1.2%	.371	3.85	21.3%	13.1%	97	+0.59	3.10	446	78
Jordan Fowler L 2022 · 4.98 FIP	23	SW	4.98	17.0%	5.8%	4.7%	.276	4.08	13.2%	5.3%	70	-0.90	4.08	124	78
Cameron Ming L 2018 · 3.80 FIP	22	SU	3.80	17.7%	7.1%	2.4%	.308	5.54	14.3%	4.9%	49	+1.74	3.80	111	78
Juliandry Higuera L 2017 · 3.87 FIP	22	SU	3.87	20.0%	9.4%	2.3%	.358	4.64	13.8%	-0.3%	43	+0.77	3.87	197	77
Christian Torres L 2016 · 3.30 FIP	22	SW	3.30	16.8%	8.9%	0.9%	.297	3.01	16.2%	9.0%	141	-0.29	2.75	172	77
Franklin Dacosta L 2022 · 4.40 FIP	22	SW	4.40	19.0%	7.9%	3.5%	.272	6.32	17.0%	-2.0%	16	+1.92	2.83	247	76
Jake Drehoff L 2015 · 3.95 FIP	23	SW	3.95	16.0%	5.9%	2.6%	.326	4.83	17.8%	6.8%	81	+0.88	3.95	153	76
Alex Cornwell L 2022 · 3.76 FIP	23	SW	3.76	18.9%	7.3%	2.4%	.382	3.81	16.2%	8.2%	311	+0.05	3.16	381	76
Matt Osterberg L 2021 · 3.88 FIP	22	SW	3.88	20.2%	12.3%	1.7%	.255	4.04	15.6%	9.3%	274	+0.16	3.70	294	75
Josh Simpson L 2021 · 4.57 FIP	23	SW	4.57	23.5%	11.5%	3.6%	.290	3.29	32.8%	19.4%	102	-1.28	3.04	255	75
Luis Cepeda L 2023 · 4.19 FIP	22	SW	4.19	18.0%	6.0%	3.4%	.450	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	115	75
Jack Patterson L 2018 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP-	4.72	14.7%	8.0%	3.4%	.299	3.10	19.4%	7.9%	80	-1.62	3.10	127	74
Andy Fisher L 2019 · 3.20 FIP	23	SU	3.20	22.8%	4.5%	2.6%	.242	3.66	23.5%	8.7%	89	+0.46	3.13	167	74
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	74
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	73
Jack Owen L 2021 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	4.2%	.359	4.22	16.0%	8.7%	201	-0.36	3.44	221	73
Shane McCain L 2015 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	19.8%	9.7%	3.0%	.324	4.75	16.6%	10.0%	125	+0.41	4.34	201	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	21.7%	7.3%	1.12	4.19
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21