Kenni Gomez
OF Fayetteville Woodpeckers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | A+/AHOU | 453 | .267/.335/.403 | 7 | 20 | 53 | — | .205/.259/.305 |
| 2025 | 20 | A+HOU | 365 | .232/.276/.349 | 6 | 22 | 19 | — | .175/.204/.255 |
| 2026 | 21 | AA/A+/A/ROKHOU | 316 | .205/.298/.313 | 4 | 23 | 26 | — | .155/.225/.231 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBHOU | 426 | .182/.232/.263 | 4 | 14 | 38 | -1.0 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 23 | MLBHOU | 99 | .192/.243/.288 | 1 | 3 | 47 | -0.5 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL HOU Blue | — | 122 | 102 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 28 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 294 | 405 | 500 | 905 | 206 | 366 | 23 | 15 | 397 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | FCL Astros | — | 61 | 53 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 208 | 311 | 321 | 632 | 113 | 231 | 20 | 10 | 294 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | — | 86 | 81 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 31 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 272 | 314 | 358 | 672 | 86 | 429 | 36 | 3 | 304 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 367 | 328 | 87 | 23 | 4 | 6 | 34 | 83 | 3 | 13 | 8 | 265 | 340 | 415 | 754 | 149 | 336 | 23 | 9 | 336 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | — | 365 | 341 | 79 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 100 | 1 | 22 | 7 | 232 | 276 | 349 | 625 | 117 | 307 | 27 | 5 | 278 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 68 | 65 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 215 | 250 | 308 | 558 | 92 | 326 | 32 | 1 | 251 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | — | 48 | 48 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 229 | 229 | 354 | 583 | 125 | 303 | 29 | 0 | 256 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 131 | 111 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 30 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 189 | 308 | 207 | 515 | 18 | 256 | 23 | 13 | 253 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK | FCL Astros | — | 69 | 54 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 23 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 204 | 377 | 500 | 877 | 296 | 286 | 33 | 22 | 384 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL HOU Blue | — | 122 | 107 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 34 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 178 | 273 | 280 | 553 | 103 | 236 | 28 | 11 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 61 | 55 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 145 | 230 | 200 | 430 | 55 | 180 | 26 | 7 | 196 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 86 | 82 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 41 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 207 | 244 | 280 | 525 | 73 | 388 | 48 | 2 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 367 | 338 | 69 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 110 | 3 | 13 | 8 | 204 | 263 | 311 | 574 | 107 | 286 | 30 | 7 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 365 | 349 | 61 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 134 | 1 | 22 | 7 | 175 | 204 | 255 | 459 | 80 | 258 | 37 | 3 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 68 | 65 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 185 | 221 | 262 | 482 | 77 | 307 | 40 | 1 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 48 | 48 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 167 | 167 | 271 | 438 | 104 | 262 | 38 | 0 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 131 | 116 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 41 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 155 | 246 | 172 | 419 | 17 | 229 | 31 | 9 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 69 | 60 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 117 | 232 | 283 | 515 | 167 | 208 | 48 | 13 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL HOU Blue | — | 122 | 107 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 34 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 178 | 273 | 280 | 553 | 103 | 236 | 28 | 11 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL HOU Blue | — | 122 | 102 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 28 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 294 | 405 | 500 | 905 | 206 | 366 | 23 | 15 | 397 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 61 | 55 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 145 | 230 | 200 | 430 | 55 | 184 | 26 | 7 | 196 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Astros | — | 61 | 53 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 208 | 311 | 321 | 632 | 113 | 231 | 20 | 10 | 294 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 453 | 420 | 86 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 151 | 5 | 20 | 10 | 205 | 259 | 305 | 564 | 100 | 305 | 33 | 6 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 453 | 409 | 109 | 25 | 5 | 7 | 37 | 114 | 5 | 20 | 10 | 267 | 335 | 403 | 738 | 137 | 352 | 25 | 8 | 330 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 365 | 349 | 61 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 134 | 1 | 22 | 7 | 175 | 204 | 255 | 459 | 80 | 266 | 37 | 3 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ RAW | Asheville Tourists | — | 365 | 341 | 79 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 100 | 1 | 22 | 7 | 232 | 276 | 349 | 625 | 117 | 307 | 27 | 5 | 278 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 4 teams | — | 316 | 289 | 46 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 119 | 4 | 23 | 4 | 159 | 229 | 235 | 464 | 76 | 256 | 38 | 7 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A RAW | 4 teams | — | 316 | 278 | 57 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 33 | 89 | 4 | 23 | 4 | 205 | 298 | 313 | 611 | 108 | 285 | 28 | 10 | 281 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL HOU Blue | — | 122 | 107 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 34 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 178 | 273 | 280 | 553 | 103 | 236 | 28 | 11 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 61 | 55 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 145 | 230 | 200 | 430 | 55 | 180 | 26 | 7 | 196 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 453 | 419 | 86 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 151 | 5 | 20 | 10 | 205 | 259 | 305 | 565 | 100 | 305 | 33 | 6 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 365 | 349 | 61 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 134 | 1 | 22 | 7 | 175 | 204 | 255 | 459 | 80 | 258 | 37 | 3 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 4 teams | — | 316 | 287 | 46 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 119 | 4 | 23 | 4 | 160 | 229 | 237 | 466 | 77 | 246 | 38 | 7 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 453 | 419 | 86 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 151 | 5 | 20 | 10 | 205 | 259 | 305 | 565 | 100 | 305 | 33 | 6 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 365 | 349 | 61 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 134 | 1 | 22 | 7 | 175 | 204 | 255 | 459 | 80 | 258 | 37 | 3 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 4 teams | — | 316 | 287 | 46 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 119 | 4 | 23 | 4 | 160 | 229 | 237 | 466 | 77 | 246 | 38 | 7 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | HOU | 0% | 426 | 398 | 72 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 142 | 3 | 14 | 4 | 182 | 232 | 263 | 495 | 81 | 268 | 33 | 5 | 225 | 38 | -31 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +9 | -1.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | HOU | 34% | 287 | 267 | 51 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 93 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 189 | 241 | 284 | 525 | 95 | 270 | 32 | 6 | 237 | 47 | -18 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +6 | -1.3 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | HOU | 34% | 99 | 93 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 32 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 192 | 243 | 288 | 531 | 96 | 275 | 32 | 5 | 239 | 47 | -6 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 99 | 93 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 32 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 194 | 242 | 290 | 533 | 97 | 283 | 32 | 5 | 239 | 38 | -6 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 611 | 119 | 26 | 7 | 7 | 33 | 210 | 7 | 20 | 7 | 195 | 245 | 295 | 539 | 100 | 284 | 32 | 5 | 239 | 38 | -41 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -3.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1814 | 1682 | 306 | 58 | 13 | 21 | 104 | 617 | 17 | 99 | 33 | 182 | 237 | 269 | 506 | 87 | 271 | 34 | 6 | 224 | 38 | -34 | +2 | +0 | -3 | +11 | -2.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 603 | 111 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 37 | 221 | 6 | 35 | 12 | 184 | 238 | 275 | 514 | 91 | 273 | 34 | 6 | 224 | 38 | -44 | +2 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -3.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 131 PAwOBA .249 → .197 (−52)K% 22.9% → 31.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.90% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 31.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.98% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 9.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.53% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.46% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.967 | ×1.015 | 21.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.47% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.967 | ×1.015 | 2.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.967 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.
Result: wOBA .249 → .197; ISO .018 → .014; BABIP .256 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKFCL Astros · 69 PAwOBA .375 → .237 (−138)K% 33.3% → 48.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 48.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 21.74% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 13.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 9.68% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 7.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.68% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 6.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 6.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 4.58% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.68% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 7.44% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .375 → .237; ISO .296 → .190; BABIP .286 → .208. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 68 PAwOBA .244 → .206 (−38)K% 32.4% → 39.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.35% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 1.47% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 1.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.94% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.050 | 2.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.93% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.050 | 20.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.30% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.050 | 8.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 2.30% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .244 → .206; ISO .092 → .076; BABIP .326 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Asheville Tourists · 48 PAwOBA .248 → .187 (−61)K% 29.2% → 38.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.17% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 38.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.59% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 18.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 7.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 2.66% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .248 → .187; ISO .125 → .093; BABIP .303 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Asheville Tourists · 365 PAwOBA .272 → .197 (−74)K% 27.4% → 36.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.40% | ÷0.977 | ×1.310 | — | — | 36.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.21% | ÷1.016 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.042 | 3.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.27% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.042 | 0.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.99% | ÷0.984 | ×0.870 | ×0.965 | ×1.042 | 19.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.47% | ÷1.095 | ×0.780 | ×0.965 | ×1.042 | 5.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.83% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.965 | ×1.042 | 0.79% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.49% | ÷1.297 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.042 | 1.76% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 159, 1B 97, 2B 119, 3B 80, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.
Result: wOBA .272 → .197; ISO .117 → .078; BABIP .307 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 367 PAwOBA .329 → .253 (−76)K% 22.6% → 30.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.62% | ÷1.020 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.26% | ÷1.024 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 6.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.82% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.04% | ÷1.038 | ×0.920 | ×0.965 | ×1.045 | 19.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.39% | ÷1.132 | ×0.830 | ×0.965 | ×1.045 | 6.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.63% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.965 | ×1.045 | 1.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.45% | ÷1.118 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 1.83% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 108, 2B 126, 3B 80, K 104, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.
Result: wOBA .329 → .253; ISO .149 → .111; BABIP .336 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Asheville Tourists · 86 PAwOBA .296 → .219 (−77)K% 36.0% → 47.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.05% | ÷0.991 | ×1.310 | — | — | 47.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.49% | ÷0.977 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.050 | 2.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.33% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.050 | 1.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.00% | ÷0.988 | ×0.870 | — | ×1.050 | 33.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.00% | ÷1.079 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 3.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.050 | 1.79% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.00% | ÷1.073 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.050 | 1.72% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 98, 2B 116, 3B 100, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .296 → .219; ISO .086 → .060; BABIP .429 → .388. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Astros · 61 PAwOBA .287 → .196 (−91)K% 19.7% → 26.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.67% | ÷1.058 | ×1.440 | — | — | 26.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.84% | ÷1.007 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 6.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.28% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 2.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.95% | ÷1.014 | ×0.820 | ×0.961 | ×1.022 | 17.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.939 | ×0.720 | ×0.961 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | ×0.961 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.88% | ÷1.379 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 2.82% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 176, 1B 103, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 112, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.
Result: wOBA .287 → .196; ISO .113 → .063; BABIP .231 → .180. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).