Khristian Guevara

Khristian Guevara P ACL Reds

Age 22 LHP 6'3" / 150 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 18 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104112vR 120

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

K%22.1%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%11.8%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	8	2	20	84	22	3	2	25%	2.5	17.8%	4.5%	13.3%	3.6%	3.60	4.12	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	8	2	20	84	22	3	2	25%	2.5	26.2%	3.6%	22.6%	2.4%	3.60	2.65	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	13	9	45	193	38	17	2	69%	3.5	13.4%	11.0%	2.4%	1.6%	4.17	4.23	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	13	9	45	193	38	17	2	69%	3.5	19.7%	8.8%	10.9%	1.0%	4.17	3.12	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	12	2	30	140	17	14	7	17%	2.5	8.3%	12.5%	-4.2%	6.6%	4.85	7.60	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	12	2	30	140	17	14	7	17%	2.5	8.3%	12.5%	-4.2%	6.6%	4.85	7.60	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	12	2	30	140	17	14	7	17%	2.5	12.1%	10.0%	2.1%	5.0%	4.85	6.44	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	CIN	17	0	18	76	17	8	2	0%	1.1	22.1%	10.3%	11.8%	3.0%	4.58	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	CIN	19	0	20	84	19	8	3	0%	1.1	23.0%	9.6%	13.4%	3.0%	4.45	4.39	+0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	CIN	10	0	10	42	10	4	1	0%	1.0	23.0%	9.6%	13.4%	3.0%	4.45	4.39	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	10	4	1	0%	1.1	23.0%	9.6%	13.4%	3.0%	4.45	4.01	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	81	20	0%	1.1	23.0%	9.6%	13.4%	3.0%	4.45	4.01	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		33	13	95	417	52	42	15	39%	2.9	12.6%	10.2%	2.4%	3.7%	4.26	5.34	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		69	27	200	878	110	89	32	39%	2.9	12.6%	10.2%	2.4%	3.7%	4.26	5.34	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Khristian Guevara (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	22.1%	10.3%	3.0%	—	4.39	23.0%	13.4%	20	-0.19	—	—	—
Matt Osterberg L 2021 · 3.88 FIP	22	SW	3.88	20.2%	12.3%	1.7%	.255	4.04	15.6%	9.3%	274	+0.16	3.70	294	84
Felix Doubront L 2010 · 4.00 FIP	22	SW	4.00	20.4%	8.8%	2.7%	.312	4.02	21.6%	11.6%	323	+0.02	3.44	719	80
Brad Mills L 2010 · 4.22 FIP	25	SW	4.22	18.4%	12.2%	2.0%	.273	5.37	19.8%	7.7%	18	+1.15	4.22	243	78
Josh Hendrickson L 2019 · 3.80 FIP	21	SW	3.80	21.8%	6.7%	3.1%	.250	4.67	19.3%	10.9%	110	+0.87	3.80	368	77
Josh Simpson L 2021 · 4.57 FIP	23	SW	4.57	23.5%	11.5%	3.6%	.290	3.26	33.2%	19.8%	102	-1.31	2.95	256	77
Jack Patterson L 2018 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP-	4.72	14.7%	8.0%	3.4%	.299	3.10	19.4%	7.9%	80	-1.62	3.10	127	76
Dante Biasi L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SW	4.91	21.5%	12.6%	3.7%	.251	5.70	19.3%	2.3%	153	+0.79	4.91	224	76
Adrian Gusman L 2015 · 3.41 FIP	23	SW	3.41	16.5%	6.6%	1.6%	.280	3.68	15.0%	7.2%	63	+0.27	2.94	141	76
Jose Alvarez L 2013 · 5.02 FIP	24	SW	5.02	18.0%	8.7%	4.2%	.294	2.98	20.4%	14.8%	124	-2.04	2.78	414	75
Lucas Knowles L 2021 · 3.90 FIP	23	SW	3.90	20.5%	12.9%	1.6%	.366	4.22	18.5%	9.4%	177	+0.32	3.37	308	75
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.25	20.9%	9.7%	219	-0.35	2.32	362	75
Alex Cornwell L 2022 · 3.76 FIP	23	SW	3.76	18.9%	7.3%	2.4%	.382	3.79	16.4%	8.4%	311	+0.03	3.16	381	75
Dana Eveland L 2006 · 4.00 FIP	22	SP-	4.00	22.7%	9.9%	2.8%	.385	3.97	14.8%	4.3%	212	-0.03	2.42	544	74
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	74
Sonny Vargas L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	20	SP-	4.54	21.0%	10.1%	3.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	165	73
Harry Gustin L 2024 · 3.91 FIP	22	SU	3.91	20.7%	11.0%	2.1%	.331	4.33	22.9%	12.7%	109	+0.42	3.70	152	73
Juliandry Higuera L 2017 · 3.87 FIP	22	SU	3.87	20.0%	9.4%	2.3%	.358	4.64	13.8%	-0.3%	43	+0.77	3.87	197	73
Logan Darnell L 2014 · 4.78 FIP	25	SP-	4.78	19.6%	7.1%	4.4%	.338	4.10	13.4%	6.1%	262	-0.68	3.16	454	73
Jordan Fowler L 2022 · 4.98 FIP	23	SW	4.98	17.0%	5.8%	4.7%	.276	4.08	13.2%	5.3%	70	-0.90	4.08	124	73
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	73