Saul Garcia
P
Binghamton Rumble Ponies
+0.3
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'0" / 180 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.5 · 2028
ERA4.40
FIP4.40
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%24.2%
BB%11.9%
K-BB%12.3%
IP48
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2028
K†6060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Mets 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 11 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 7.50 | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | FCL Mets | 14 | 2 | 31 | 147 | 46 | 23 | 1 | 21.3% | 19.6% | 0.9% | 4.94 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 25 | 10 | 80 | 355 | 106 | 52 | 3 | 22.2% | 17.3% | 0.8% | 5.04 | 3.87 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 24 | 13 | 71 | 334 | 86 | 42 | 3 | 18.6% | 15.4% | 1.4% | 5.05 | 4.26 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 38 | 0 | 48 | 202 | 76 | 27 | 3 | 29.3% | 15.2% | 1.8% | 1.70 | 3.53 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 4 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 9 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | 10.80 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | NYM | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 49 | 24 | 5 | 24.2% | 11.9% | 2.7% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 53 | 232 | 58 | 26 | 7 | 25.0% | 11.3% | 3.2% | 5.00 | 3.99 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 51 | 23 | 6 | 24.6% | 10.8% | 2.7% | 4.30 | 4.23 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 50 | — | 50 | 211 | 52 | 21 | 6 | 24.9% | 10.2% | 2.7% | 4.20 | 4.13 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 50 | — | 50 | 211 | 53 | 21 | 6 | 25.0% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 4.16 | 4.12 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 50 | — | 50 | 209 | 52 | 21 | 6 | 25.0% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 4.13 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 51 | 21 | 6 | 25.0% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 4.16 | 4.16 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 50 | 21 | 6 | 24.8% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.21 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 48 | 20 | 6 | 24.6% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 4.24 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 46 | 20 | 6 | 24.4% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 4.34 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 43 | — | 43 | 181 | 44 | 19 | 5 | 24.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.43 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 41 | 19 | 5 | 23.8% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.53 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 39 | — | 39 | 164 | 39 | 18 | 5 | 23.5% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 4.57 | 4.64 | +0.1 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 36 | 17 | 5 | 23.1% | 11.2% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 33 | 17 | 5 | 22.6% | 11.5% | 3.4% | 4.81 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 110 | 25 | 241 | 1095 | 251 | 178 | 15 | 22.9% | 16.3% | 1.3% | 4.55 | 3.95 | +3.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 91 | 21 | 200 | 907 | 208 | 148 | 12 | 22.9% | 16.3% | 1.3% | 4.55 | 3.95 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Saul Garcia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 24.2% | 11.9% | 2.7% | — | 4.16 | 24.9% | 14.5% | 149 | -0.24 | — | — | — |
| Donovan Benoit R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.58 | 25.3% | 12.4% | 1.9% | .284 | 4.43 | 17.6% | 4.3% | 138 | +0.85 | 3.58 | 183 | 93 |
| Stephen Jones R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.60 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 2.0% | .304 | 4.61 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.01 | 3.60 | 246 | 93 |
| Austin Smith R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 92 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 4.11 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.20 | 4.01 | 142 | 92 |
| Justin Yeager R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.59 | 26.6% | 12.3% | 2.1% | .281 | 3.93 | 25.4% | 12.6% | 103 | +0.34 | 3.29 | 201 | 92 |
| Jacob Dorris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.10 | 26.9% | 12.4% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.58 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 88 | +0.48 | 4.10 | 130 | 92 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 3.95 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 96 | -0.00 | 3.37 | 134 | 90 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 3.00 | 24.2% | 12.6% | 70 | -1.56 | 2.12 | 117 | 90 |
| Kyle Marman R 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.97 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .270 | 5.16 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 71 | +1.19 | 3.97 | 117 | 90 |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 90 |
| Hunter Dula R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.90 | 22.0% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .340 | 4.56 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 91 | +0.66 | 3.90 | 132 | 89 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2027 · 3.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.71 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .239 | 5.62 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.91 | 3.71 | 325 | 89 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.48 | 27.7% | 12.1% | 2.2% | .291 | 4.31 | 19.4% | 6.5% | 183 | +0.83 | 3.48 | 290 | 89 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.48 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 1.6% | .316 | 4.40 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 109 | +0.92 | 3.48 | 142 | 89 |
| Peyton Williams R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.66 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.87 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.21 | 3.66 | 123 | 89 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .261 | 3.88 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 114 | -0.55 | 3.82 | 142 | 89 |
| Logan VanWey R 2027 · 4.41 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.41 | 23.9% | 14.0% | 2.8% | .301 | 4.39 | 26.1% | 10.7% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 143 | 89 |
| Cole Gordon R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.10 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .243 | 5.19 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.09 | 4.10 | 112 | 88 |
| Ray Gaither R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.86 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.5% | .314 | 4.51 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.35 | 4.05 | 164 | 88 |
| Cre Finfrock R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.69 | 23.0% | 11.7% | 3.7% | .278 | 6.32 | 16.7% | -8.5% | 36 | +1.63 | 4.27 | 103 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.6M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.0M |
| Totals | $6M | $12M | +$5M | ||