Saul Garcia
P
Binghamton Rumble Ponies
Age 23
RHP
6'0" / 180 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 34 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.41
FIP4.41
K%24.2%
BB%11.9%
K-BB%12.3%
ROS IP34
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Mets 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 39.3% | 14.3% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 7.50 | 1.59 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Mets 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 39.3% | 14.3% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 7.50 | 1.43 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | FCL Mets | 14 | 2 | 31 | 147 | 46 | 23 | 1 | 14% | 2.2 | 21.3% | 19.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 4.94 | 4.23 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | FCL Mets | 14 | 2 | 31 | 147 | 46 | 23 | 1 | 14% | 2.2 | 31.3% | 15.6% | 15.6% | 0.7% | 4.94 | 2.78 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 10 | 80 | 355 | 106 | 52 | 3 | 40% | 3.2 | 22.2% | 17.3% | 4.9% | 0.7% | 5.04 | 3.80 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 10 | 80 | 355 | 106 | 52 | 3 | 40% | 3.2 | 29.9% | 14.6% | 15.2% | 0.8% | 5.04 | 2.89 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 13 | 71 | 334 | 86 | 42 | 3 | 54% | 3.0 | 18.6% | 15.4% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 5.05 | 4.52 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 13 | 71 | 334 | 86 | 42 | 3 | 54% | 3.0 | 25.7% | 12.6% | 13.2% | 0.9% | 5.05 | 3.00 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 48 | 202 | 76 | 27 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.3% | 15.2% | 14.1% | 1.7% | 1.70 | 3.48 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 48 | 202 | 76 | 27 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 37.6% | 13.4% | 24.3% | 1.5% | 1.70 | 2.43 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 31 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 51 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.7% | 8.4% | 20.3% | 3.3% | 3.41 | 3.57 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | NYM | 32 | 0 | 34 | 142 | 34 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 2.7% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | NYM | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.2% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 2.7% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 68 | 286 | 85 | 28 | 8 | — | — | 29.8% | 9.7% | 20.1% | 2.7% | 3.90 | 3.99 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 24.2% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 2.7% | 4.41 | 4.03 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 33 | 0 | 34 | 145 | 36 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 10.8% | 13.8% | 2.7% | 4.31 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 33 | 0 | 35 | 147 | 37 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 10.2% | 14.7% | 2.7% | 4.21 | 4.14 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 33 | 0 | 35 | 147 | 37 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.0% | 10.1% | 14.9% | 2.7% | 4.16 | 4.13 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 33 | 0 | 34 | 145 | 36 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 10.1% | 14.8% | 2.8% | 4.17 | 4.17 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 32 | 0 | 33 | 141 | 35 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 10.3% | 14.6% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.25 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 10.8% | 13.8% | 2.7% | 4.31 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 24 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 10.2% | 14.7% | 2.7% | 4.21 | 4.14 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 30 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 10.1% | 14.9% | 2.7% | 4.16 | 4.13 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 31 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 10.1% | 14.8% | 2.8% | 4.17 | 4.17 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 10.3% | 14.6% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.25 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 120 | 0 | 126 | 531 | 132 | 54 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 10.3% | 14.6% | 2.7% | 4.21 | 3.81 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 210 | 86 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 10.3% | 14.6% | 2.7% | 4.21 | 3.81 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 137 | 25 | 271 | 1210 | 284 | 188 | 18 | 18% | 2.0 | 23.4% | 15.5% | 7.9% | 1.5% | 4.29 | 3.92 | +4.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 101 | 18 | 200 | 894 | 209 | 139 | 14 | 18% | 2.0 | 23.4% | 15.5% | 7.9% | 1.5% | 4.29 | 3.92 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Saul Garcia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 24.2% | 11.9% | 2.7% | — | 4.17 | 24.9% | 14.5% | 104 | -0.24 | — | — | — |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.21 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.19 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 142 | 90 |
| Jacob Dorris R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.86 | 26.9% | 12.4% | 2.7% | .295 | 4.59 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 88 | +0.73 | 3.86 | 130 | 89 |
| Donovan Benoit R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.53 | 25.3% | 12.4% | 1.8% | .284 | 4.38 | 17.6% | 4.3% | 138 | +0.85 | 3.53 | 183 | 88 |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.13 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -1.03 | 2.74 | 367 | 87 |
| Justin Yeager R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.58 | 26.6% | 12.3% | 2.1% | .281 | 3.98 | 25.4% | 12.6% | 103 | +0.40 | 3.21 | 239 | 87 |
| Josh White R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.45 | 24.5% | 11.4% | 1.8% | .319 | 2.79 | 31.3% | 20.1% | 109 | -0.66 | 1.95 | 232 | 87 |
| Shane Broyles R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.90 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.59 | 25.7% | 14.5% | 159 | -0.31 | 3.10 | 218 | 87 |
| Ryan Shreve R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.24 | 25.9% | 11.8% | 1.5% | .257 | 4.32 | 17.8% | 8.6% | 182 | +1.08 | 3.24 | 290 | 87 |
| Jackson Kelley R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.84 | 26.5% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .313 | 3.92 | 21.1% | 9.9% | 138 | +0.08 | 3.80 | 190 | 87 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.48 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .261 | 4.12 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 138 | -0.36 | 3.77 | 166 | 87 |
| Cole Gordon R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.4% | .243 | 5.20 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.04 | 4.16 | 112 | 87 |
| Kyle Marman R 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.98 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .270 | 5.27 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 71 | +1.29 | 3.98 | 117 | 86 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 86 |
| Colby Morris R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 86 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 4.09 | 19.8% | 9.0% | 134 | +0.14 | 3.24 | 172 | 86 |
| Tanner Jacobson R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.08 | 22.8% | 13.8% | 2.1% | .313 | 4.97 | 21.1% | 5.4% | 115 | +0.89 | 4.08 | 168 | 86 |
| Owen Holt R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .258 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.63 | 3.89 | 145 | 86 |
| Peyton Williams R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.53 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 1.8% | .311 | 5.00 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.47 | 3.53 | 123 | 85 |
| Luke Bell R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .295 | 5.85 | 13.1% | 1.3% | 66 | +1.96 | 3.89 | 110 | 85 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2028 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 85 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 34 | 24.8% | 10.6% | 1.06 | 4.25 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Cam Bedrosian ('21) | 6 | 45 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 0.97 | 3.68 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |
| Wade Davis ('21) | 6 | 53 | 27.3% | 10.4% | 0.90 | 3.77 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |