Saul Garcia — OGILVIE

Saul Garcia P Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 33 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%24.9%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%9.9%

ROS IP34

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 1	5	0	6	28	11	4	0	0%	1.2	39.3%	14.3%	25.0%	0.0%	7.50	1.59	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mets 1	5	0	6	28	11	4	0	0%	1.2	39.3%	14.3%	25.0%	0.0%	7.50	1.43	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	14	2	31	147	46	23	1	14%	2.2	21.3%	19.6%	1.7%	0.9%	4.94	4.27	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	FCL Mets	14	2	31	147	46	23	1	14%	2.2	31.3%	15.6%	15.6%	0.7%	4.94	2.78	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	10	80	355	106	52	3	40%	3.2	22.2%	17.3%	4.9%	0.9%	5.04	3.89	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	10	80	355	106	52	3	40%	3.2	22.2%	17.3%	4.9%	0.9%	5.04	3.89	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	10	80	355	106	52	3	40%	3.2	29.9%	14.6%	15.2%	0.8%	5.04	2.89	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	13	71	334	86	42	3	54%	3.0	18.6%	15.4%	3.2%	1.5%	5.05	4.30	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	13	71	334	86	42	3	54%	3.0	18.6%	15.4%	3.2%	1.5%	5.05	4.30	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	13	71	334	86	42	3	54%	3.0	25.7%	12.6%	13.2%	0.9%	5.05	3.00	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	48	202	76	27	3	0%	1.3	29.3%	15.2%	14.1%	1.8%	1.70	3.52	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	48	202	76	27	3	0%	1.3	29.3%	15.2%	14.1%	1.8%	1.70	3.52	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	48	202	76	27	3	0%	1.3	37.6%	13.4%	24.3%	1.5%	1.70	2.43	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	47	0	55	225	71	21	8	0%	1.2	25.6%	10.0%	15.6%	4.6%	3.62	4.73	—
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	47	0	55	225	71	21	8	0%	1.2	25.6%	10.0%	15.6%	4.6%	3.62	4.73	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	NYM	44	0	50	209	66	19	8	0%	1.1	31.6%	9.1%	22.5%	3.8%	3.99	3.69	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	NYM	3	0	5	16	5	2	0	0%	1.7	31.2%	12.5%	18.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.04	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	NYM	63	0	66	278	70	36	7	0%	1.0	25.2%	13.1%	12.2%	2.7%	4.55	4.47	+0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYM	63	0	67	281	72	33	8	0%	1.1	25.5%	11.9%	13.6%	2.7%	4.39	4.30	+0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYM	63	0	67	281	72	33	8	0%	1.1	25.6%	11.7%	13.9%	2.7%	4.32	4.28	+0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYM	62	0	66	277	71	32	8	0%	1.1	25.5%	11.7%	13.8%	2.7%	4.32	4.32	+0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	NYM	61	0	64	269	68	32	8	0%	1.0	25.4%	11.9%	13.5%	2.8%	4.37	4.40	+0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	NYM	28	0	29	122	31	16	3	0%	1.0	25.2%	13.1%	12.2%	2.7%	4.55	4.47	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYM	43	0	45	190	48	23	5	0%	1.0	25.5%	11.9%	13.6%	2.7%	4.39	4.30	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYM	50	0	53	224	57	26	6	0%	1.1	25.6%	11.7%	13.9%	2.7%	4.32	4.28	+0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYM	53	0	56	236	60	28	6	0%	1.1	25.5%	11.7%	13.8%	2.7%	4.32	4.32	+0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	NYM	54	0	57	241	61	29	7	0%	1.1	25.4%	11.9%	13.5%	2.8%	4.37	4.40	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		228	0	239	1009	257	121	28	0%	1.0	25.5%	11.9%	13.5%	2.7%	4.37	3.96	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	215	101	23	0%	1.1	25.5%	11.9%	13.5%	2.7%	4.37	3.96	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		153	25	291	1291	300	199	23	16%	1.9	23.2%	15.4%	7.8%	1.8%	4.27	4.08	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		105	17	200	887	206	136	16	16%	1.9	23.2%	15.4%	7.8%	1.8%	4.27	4.08	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Saul Garcia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	24.9%	14.9%	2.7%	—	4.35	25.4%	13.2%	199	-0.38	—	—	—
Tyler Schimpf R 2019 · 4.04 FIP	23	SU	4.04	24.3%	15.9%	1.8%	.300	5.63	24.1%	7.1%	58	+1.59	3.37	126	89
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	88
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	88
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	88
Ryan Sublette R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	23	SU	3.74	27.3%	14.6%	2.0%	.301	5.29	19.7%	2.0%	149	+1.55	3.74	203	88
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	87
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	87
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	87
Andrew McInvale R 2021 · 4.92 FIP	24	SU	4.92	26.4%	16.3%	3.6%	.278	5.66	20.3%	5.0%	58	+0.74	4.92	103	87
Jackson Kelley R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SU	3.80	26.5%	13.1%	2.3%	.313	3.65	21.6%	10.7%	165	-0.15	3.21	218	86
Luis Ramirez R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	23	SU	4.68	23.1%	15.9%	2.8%	.278	3.71	24.0%	11.4%	53	-0.97	3.71	104	86
Donovan Benoit R 2022 · 3.58 FIP	23	SU	3.58	25.3%	12.4%	1.9%	.284	4.43	17.6%	4.3%	138	+0.85	3.58	183	86
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	86
Jake Gilbert R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SU	4.14	22.1%	15.2%	1.8%	.314	4.65	18.2%	2.0%	53	+0.51	4.14	103	86
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	86
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	86
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	85
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	85
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.17	18.2%	4.9%	93	-0.19	3.20	213	85
Jacob Dorris R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	26.9%	12.4%	3.2%	.295	4.58	19.2%	8.8%	88	+0.42	4.16	130	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	60	25.4%	12.3%	1.05	4.42
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68