Douglas Orellana

P Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 196 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #846

ETA2028FG ETA2026MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	A+NYM	13	9	39	1.86	2.30	30.1%	11.0%	—	K 23.1% · BB 12.7% · FIP 3.07
2025	23	MIX2 levels	41	1	52	2.96	2.91	28.9%	13.8%	—	K 23.8% · BB 13.6% · FIP 3.35
2026	24	AANYM	45	0	59	5.16	3.91	27.2%	12.6%	—	K 22.0% · BB 13.9% · FIP 4.77
2027PROJ	25	MLBNYM	67	0	70	4.87	4.87	22.9%	14.2%	-0.3
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBNYM	30	0	31	4.80	4.79	23.2%	13.7%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBNYM	42	0	44	4.78	4.79	23.2%	13.4%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Command40FB velo50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsNolan Riggs (age 25) · Kevin Kopps (age 25) · Nick Ernst (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 109

ERA4.87

FIP4.87

K%22.9%

BB%14.2%

K-BB%8.7%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5055

CMD3040

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 2	17	0	19	102	14	20	2	0%	1.1	9.3%	24.5%	-15.2%	2.7%	8.05	6.92	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Mets 2	17	0	19	102	14	20	2	0%	1.1	13.7%	19.6%	-5.9%	2.0%	8.05	6.15	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	6	42	179	63	28	2	43%	3.0	24.9%	17.5%	7.4%	1.7%	4.25	4.16	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	6	42	179	63	28	2	43%	3.0	35.2%	15.6%	19.6%	1.1%	4.25	2.72	—
2023	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	23	18	89	395	112	50	9	78%	3.9	21.0%	14.9%	6.0%	2.3%	4.53	4.50	—
2023	21	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	23	18	89	395	112	50	9	78%	3.9	28.4%	12.7%	15.7%	2.3%	4.53	3.58	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	13	9	39	163	49	18	1	69%	3.0	23.1%	12.7%	10.4%	0.6%	1.86	3.07	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	13	9	39	163	49	18	1	69%	3.0	23.1%	12.7%	10.4%	0.6%	1.86	3.07	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Brooklyn Cyclones	13	9	39	163	49	18	1	69%	3.0	30.1%	11.0%	19.0%	0.6%	1.86	2.30	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	1	52	218	63	30	2	2%	1.3	23.8%	13.6%	10.2%	1.0%	2.96	3.35	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	1	52	218	63	30	2	2%	1.3	23.8%	13.6%	10.2%	1.0%	2.96	3.35	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	1	52	218	63	30	2	2%	1.3	28.9%	13.8%	15.1%	0.9%	2.96	2.91	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	45	0	59	261	71	33	7	0%	1.3	22.0%	13.9%	8.1%	3.2%	5.16	4.77	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	45	0	59	261	71	33	7	0%	1.3	22.0%	13.9%	8.1%	3.2%	5.16	4.77	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	45	0	59	261	71	33	7	0%	1.3	27.2%	12.6%	14.6%	2.7%	5.16	3.91	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	NYM	67	0	70	296	68	42	8	0%	1.0	22.9%	14.2%	8.7%	2.8%	4.87	4.87	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYM	67	0	70	296	69	40	8	0%	1.0	23.2%	13.7%	9.6%	2.8%	4.80	4.79	-0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	NYM	66	0	69	291	68	39	8	0%	1.0	23.2%	13.4%	9.8%	2.9%	4.78	4.79	-0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	NYM	64	0	67	282	65	38	8	0%	1.0	23.1%	13.3%	9.8%	3.0%	4.81	4.85	-0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	NYM	61	0	64	270	62	36	8	0%	1.0	22.9%	13.5%	9.4%	3.1%	4.90	4.97	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYM	30	0	31	131	30	18	4	0%	1.0	23.2%	13.7%	9.6%	2.8%	4.80	4.79	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	NYM	42	0	44	186	43	25	5	0%	1.0	23.2%	13.4%	9.8%	2.9%	4.78	4.79	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	NYM	49	0	51	215	50	29	6	0%	1.0	23.1%	13.3%	9.8%	3.0%	4.81	4.85	-0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	NYM	50	0	52	220	50	30	7	0%	1.0	22.9%	13.5%	9.4%	3.1%	4.90	4.97	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		169	0	177	748	173	100	22	0%	1.0	23.1%	13.4%	9.7%	3.0%	4.83	4.48	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	195	113	25	0%	1.1	23.1%	13.4%	9.7%	3.0%	4.83	4.48	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		153	34	300	1318	284	202	27	22%	2.0	21.6%	15.3%	6.2%	2.0%	4.23	4.33	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		102	23	200	878	189	134	18	22%	2.0	21.6%	15.3%	6.2%	2.0%	4.23	4.33	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Douglas Orellana (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.87	22.9%	14.2%	2.8%	—	4.81	23.2%	9.7%	206	-0.06	—	—	—
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	85
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	84
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	84
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	84
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	84
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	83
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	24	SU	4.59	24.1%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	83
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	83
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	83
Carter Loewen R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	23.1%	15.0%	2.2%	.312	4.16	20.0%	11.9%	23	-0.10	2.67	145	82
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	82
Sean Isaac R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	25	SW	4.20	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	82
Layne Somsen R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.5%	12.5%	1.3%	.265	4.00	19.9%	6.7%	92	+0.26	3.66	154	82
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	82
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.17	28.8%	15.2%	112	-0.85	3.14	173	82
Eric Cerantola R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	24	SW	4.65	25.7%	16.6%	2.9%	.245	3.74	26.2%	15.9%	100	-0.91	3.37	270	82
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.49	14.0%	6.3%	162	+0.26	3.81	291	82
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	25	SU	4.61	20.9%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.12	24.4%	7.6%	107	-0.49	3.92	311	82
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	82
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.24	23.5%	12.2%	22	+0.82	4.42	152	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	23.1%	13.6%	1.13	4.83
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30