Douglas Orellana
P
Binghamton Rumble Ponies
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 196 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 90 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126117vR 108
ERA4.74
FIP4.74
K%23.3%
BB%15.2%
K-BB%8.1%
ROS IP90
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 128 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Mets 2 | 17 | 0 | 19 | 102 | 14 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 9.3% | 24.5% | -15.2% | 2.7% | 8.05 | 6.92 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Mets 2 | 17 | 0 | 19 | 102 | 14 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.7% | 19.6% | -5.9% | 2.0% | 8.05 | 6.15 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 6 | 42 | 179 | 63 | 28 | 2 | 43% | 3.0 | 24.9% | 17.5% | 7.4% | 1.6% | 4.25 | 4.10 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 6 | 42 | 179 | 63 | 28 | 2 | 43% | 3.0 | 35.2% | 15.6% | 19.6% | 1.1% | 4.25 | 2.72 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 23 | 18 | 89 | 395 | 112 | 50 | 9 | 78% | 3.9 | 21.0% | 14.9% | 6.0% | 1.9% | 4.53 | 4.27 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 23 | 18 | 89 | 395 | 112 | 50 | 9 | 78% | 3.9 | 28.4% | 12.7% | 15.7% | 2.3% | 4.53 | 3.58 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 13 | 9 | 39 | 163 | 49 | 18 | 1 | 69% | 3.0 | 23.1% | 12.7% | 10.4% | 0.5% | 1.86 | 3.00 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 13 | 9 | 39 | 163 | 49 | 18 | 1 | 69% | 3.0 | 30.1% | 11.0% | 19.0% | 0.6% | 1.86 | 2.30 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 1 | 52 | 218 | 63 | 30 | 2 | 2% | 1.3 | 24.0% | 14.7% | 9.2% | 0.9% | 2.96 | 3.46 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 1 | 52 | 218 | 63 | 30 | 2 | 2% | 1.3 | 28.9% | 13.8% | 15.1% | 0.9% | 2.96 | 2.91 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 29 | 0 | 38 | 168 | 45 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.7% | 12.4% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.70 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | NYM | 86 | 0 | 90 | 380 | 88 | 58 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 8.1% | 2.4% | 4.74 | 4.74 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | NYM | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 8.1% | 2.4% | 4.74 | 4.74 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 128 | 548 | 133 | 77 | 13 | — | — | 24.3% | 14.0% | 10.3% | 2.4% | 4.73 | 4.64 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 23.3% | 15.2% | 8.1% | 2.4% | 4.74 | 4.36 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 87 | 0 | 91 | 385 | 91 | 52 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 13.5% | 10.0% | 2.4% | 4.59 | 4.53 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 87 | 0 | 91 | 385 | 91 | 50 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 13.0% | 10.6% | 2.5% | 4.52 | 4.48 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 85 | 0 | 90 | 379 | 89 | 49 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 12.8% | 10.7% | 2.5% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 40 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 13.5% | 10.0% | 2.4% | 4.59 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 61 | 34 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 13.0% | 10.6% | 2.5% | 4.52 | 4.48 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 70 | 38 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 12.8% | 10.7% | 2.5% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 164 | 0 | 172 | 727 | 172 | 95 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 13.1% | 10.5% | 2.5% | 4.53 | 4.13 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 200 | 110 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 13.1% | 10.5% | 2.5% | 4.53 | 4.13 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 137 | 34 | 279 | 1225 | 263 | 189 | 21 | 25% | 2.0 | 21.5% | 15.4% | 6.1% | 1.7% | 4.09 | 4.17 | +4.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 98 | 24 | 200 | 877 | 189 | 135 | 15 | 25% | 2.0 | 21.5% | 15.4% | 6.1% | 1.7% | 4.09 | 4.17 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Douglas Orellana (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.74 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 2.4% | — | 4.51 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 272 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Andrew Politi R 2025 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.56 | 22.6% | 13.0% | 1.3% | .274 | 4.52 | 23.4% | 13.0% | 144 | +0.96 | 3.45 | 292 | 85 |
| Eric Cerantola R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.74 | 25.8% | 17.0% | 3.1% | .245 | 3.95 | 26.8% | 13.8% | 111 | -0.79 | 3.53 | 281 | 84 |
| Gabriel Ponce R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.73 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 3.1% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 161 | 83 |
| Carlos Contreras R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.30 | 22.2% | 15.6% | 2.0% | .271 | 4.65 | 11.9% | 2.4% | 40 | +0.35 | 4.30 | 107 | 83 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.71 | 22.7% | 13.6% | 1.5% | .270 | 4.00 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 108 | +0.29 | 3.58 | 169 | 83 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.88 | 22.4% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .327 | 4.57 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 163 | -0.31 | 3.44 | 224 | 83 |
| Peter Tago R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.73 | 24.4% | 14.0% | 1.7% | .303 | 3.43 | 23.6% | 8.3% | 39 | -0.30 | 3.24 | 207 | 82 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.18 | 22.1% | 15.2% | 1.9% | .314 | 4.59 | 18.2% | 2.0% | 53 | +0.41 | 4.18 | 103 | 82 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 82 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.21 | 19.5% | 14.2% | 1.7% | .287 | 4.49 | 19.3% | 10.3% | 169 | +0.28 | 3.81 | 233 | 82 |
| Craig Schlitter R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.76 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .298 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 4.2% | 171 | -0.32 | 4.07 | 222 | 82 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 22.4% | 13.6% | 2.4% | .331 | 4.29 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 105 | +0.06 | 3.44 | 213 | 82 |
| Pat Light R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.34 | 20.9% | 14.5% | 2.1% | .270 | 4.39 | 16.4% | 2.8% | 110 | +0.05 | 4.11 | 172 | 82 |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.2% | .293 | 7.95 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.39 | 4.55 | 155 | 81 |
| Jacob Webb R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.50 | 19.8% | 15.3% | 2.1% | .283 | 4.49 | 19.0% | 8.6% | 139 | -0.01 | 3.34 | 252 | 81 |
| Wyatt Olds R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.59 | 24.7% | 16.1% | 2.8% | .284 | 4.92 | 24.4% | 9.4% | 110 | +0.33 | 2.39 | 372 | 81 |
| Todd Van Steensel R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.69 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 1.9% | .294 | 3.33 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 157 | -0.36 | 2.87 | 223 | 80 |
| Antonio Knowles R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.9% | 15.1% | 2.3% | .250 | 3.13 | 21.9% | 13.9% | 61 | -1.38 | 2.73 | 218 | 80 |
| Shane Broyles R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.95 | 24.3% | 15.3% | 1.8% | .328 | 3.42 | 26.4% | 17.1% | 108 | -0.53 | 3.10 | 218 | 80 |
| Max Alba R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.24 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .290 | 5.06 | 17.4% | 10.5% | 207 | +0.82 | 4.24 | 262 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 90 | 23.5% | 13.7% | 0.94 | 4.59 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |