Douglas Orellana

Douglas Orellana P Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 196 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION59 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.64

FIP4.64

K%22.9%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%8.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5055

CMD3040

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 2	17	0	19	102	14	20	2	0%	1.1	9.3%	24.5%	-15.2%	2.7%	8.05	6.92	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Mets 2	17	0	19	102	14	20	2	0%	1.1	13.7%	19.6%	-5.9%	2.0%	8.05	6.15	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	6	42	179	63	28	2	43%	3.0	24.9%	17.5%	7.4%	1.7%	4.25	4.16	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	6	42	179	63	28	2	43%	3.0	35.2%	15.6%	19.6%	1.1%	4.25	2.72	—
2023	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	23	18	89	395	112	50	9	78%	3.9	21.0%	14.9%	6.0%	2.3%	4.53	4.50	—
2023	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	23	18	89	395	112	50	9	78%	3.9	21.0%	14.9%	6.0%	2.3%	4.53	4.50	—
2023	21	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	23	18	89	395	112	50	9	78%	3.9	28.4%	12.7%	15.7%	2.3%	4.53	3.58	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	13	9	39	163	49	18	1	69%	3.0	23.1%	12.7%	10.4%	0.6%	1.86	3.07	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	13	9	39	163	49	18	1	69%	3.0	23.1%	12.7%	10.4%	0.6%	1.86	3.07	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Brooklyn Cyclones	13	9	39	163	49	18	1	69%	3.0	30.1%	11.0%	19.0%	0.6%	1.86	2.30	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	1	52	218	63	30	2	2%	1.3	23.6%	13.6%	10.0%	1.0%	2.96	3.37	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	1	52	218	63	30	2	2%	1.3	23.6%	13.6%	10.0%	1.0%	2.96	3.37	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	1	52	218	63	30	2	2%	1.3	28.9%	13.8%	15.1%	0.9%	2.96	2.91	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	45	0	59	261	71	33	7	0%	1.3	22.0%	13.9%	8.1%	3.2%	5.16	4.77	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	45	0	59	261	71	33	7	0%	1.3	22.0%	13.9%	8.1%	3.2%	5.16	4.77	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	NYM	45	0	59	261	71	33	7	0%	1.3	27.2%	12.6%	14.6%	2.7%	5.16	3.88	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	NYM	6	0	6	27	6	4	1	0%	1.1	22.9%	14.1%	8.8%	2.4%	4.64	4.64	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	NYM	—	—	66	288	77	37	8	—	—	26.8%	12.8%	14.0%	2.7%	5.11	4.76	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	NYM	87	0	91	385	90	49	9	0%	1.0	23.3%	12.7%	10.6%	2.4%	4.51	4.46	+0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYM	87	0	91	385	90	47	10	0%	1.0	23.4%	12.3%	11.1%	2.5%	4.45	4.42	+0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	NYM	85	0	90	379	88	46	10	0%	1.1	23.3%	12.1%	11.2%	2.6%	4.45	4.45	+0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	NYM	83	0	87	367	85	45	10	0%	1.0	23.2%	12.2%	11.0%	2.7%	4.49	4.53	+0.0
2031	29	MLB MLE	NYM	79	0	83	351	80	44	10	0%	1.1	22.9%	12.4%	10.5%	2.8%	4.59	4.66	-0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	NYM	74	0	78	330	81	39	10	0%	1.1	24.6%	11.9%	12.7%	3.0%	4.58	4.57	-0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	NYM	38	0	40	169	39	21	4	0%	1.1	23.3%	12.7%	10.6%	2.4%	4.51	4.46	+0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYM	58	0	61	258	60	32	6	0%	1.1	23.4%	12.3%	11.1%	2.5%	4.45	4.42	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	NYM	67	0	70	296	69	36	8	0%	1.0	23.3%	12.1%	11.2%	2.6%	4.45	4.45	+0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	NYM	70	0	73	308	71	38	8	0%	1.0	23.2%	12.2%	11.0%	2.7%	4.49	4.53	+0.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	NYM	70	0	73	308	71	38	9	0%	1.0	22.9%	12.4%	10.5%	2.8%	4.59	4.66	-0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	NYM	67	0	70	296	73	35	9	0%	1.0	24.6%	11.9%	12.7%	3.0%	4.58	4.57	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		369	0	387	1634	383	200	44	0%	1.0	23.5%	12.2%	11.2%	2.7%	4.51	4.14	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	198	103	23	0%	1.1	23.5%	12.2%	11.2%	2.7%	4.51	4.14	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		153	34	300	1318	284	202	27	22%	2.0	21.5%	15.3%	6.2%	2.0%	4.23	4.33	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		102	23	200	878	189	134	18	22%	2.0	21.5%	15.3%	6.2%	2.0%	4.23	4.33	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Douglas Orellana (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	22.9%	14.1%	2.4%	—	4.44	23.3%	11.0%	272	-0.20	—	—	—
Andrew Politi R 2019 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	22.6%	13.0%	1.4%	.274	4.33	23.4%	13.0%	144	+0.71	3.38	292	86
Mason Vinyard R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	24	SU	3.73	22.7%	13.6%	1.5%	.270	4.67	19.3%	5.9%	147	+0.94	3.60	207	85
Todd Van Steensel R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	22.5%	11.6%	2.0%	.294	3.31	19.3%	6.5%	157	-0.48	2.87	223	84
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	84
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	84
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.22	28.3%	14.7%	112	-0.80	3.17	173	84
Carlos Contreras R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	22.2%	15.6%	2.0%	.271	4.46	11.9%	2.4%	40	+0.17	4.29	107	84
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	84
Aaron Kurcz R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	22.4%	13.6%	1.9%	.331	4.05	16.1%	8.0%	105	+0.07	3.31	213	84
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	23.9%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	84
Peter Tago R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	24	SU	3.65	24.4%	14.0%	1.5%	.303	3.44	23.6%	8.3%	39	-0.21	3.26	207	84
Matt Keating R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	22	SU	4.34	23.3%	14.8%	2.4%	.346	4.63	23.2%	9.1%	157	+0.29	3.38	222	83
Trevor Holloway R 2021 · 3.44 FIP	24	SU	3.44	21.9%	11.7%	1.3%	.266	4.55	17.9%	6.1%	43	+1.11	3.44	112	83
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	83
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	83
Pat Light R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	20.9%	14.5%	2.1%	.270	4.37	16.4%	2.8%	110	+0.03	4.10	172	83
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	83
Jake Gilbert R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SU	4.14	22.1%	15.2%	1.8%	.314	4.65	18.2%	2.0%	53	+0.51	4.14	103	83
Tyler Vogel R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	22	SU	4.93	23.4%	14.3%	3.6%	.305	4.48	19.1%	6.1%	135	-0.45	3.84	200	82
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	87	23.4%	12.5%	1.01	4.53
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91