Douglas Orellana
P
Binghamton Rumble Ponies
+0.3
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 196 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.4 · 2027
ERA4.42
FIP4.42
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.0%
BB%12.4%
K-BB%10.6%
IP52
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2027
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Mets 2 | 17 | 0 | 19 | 102 | 14 | 20 | 2 | 9.3% | 24.5% | 2.7% | 8.05 | 6.92 | -0.4 |
| 2022 | 20 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 14 | 6 | 42 | 179 | 63 | 28 | 2 | 24.9% | 17.5% | 1.7% | 4.25 | 4.14 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 21 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 23 | 18 | 89 | 395 | 112 | 50 | 9 | 21.0% | 14.9% | 2.2% | 4.53 | 4.45 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 13 | 9 | 39 | 163 | 49 | 18 | 1 | 23.1% | 12.7% | 0.6% | 1.86 | 3.09 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 41 | 1 | 52 | 218 | 63 | 30 | 2 | 24.0% | 14.7% | 1.0% | 2.96 | 3.49 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 4 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 9 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 8.31 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | NYM | 52 | — | 52 | 217 | 50 | 27 | 5 | 23.0% | 12.4% | 2.4% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 56 | 238 | 59 | 29 | 5 | 24.7% | 12.1% | 2.2% | 4.72 | 4.08 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 51 | 25 | 5 | 23.4% | 11.3% | 2.4% | 4.33 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 52 | 24 | 5 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.5% | 4.29 | 4.25 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 52 | 24 | 6 | 23.6% | 11.0% | 2.5% | 4.28 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 51 | 24 | 6 | 23.5% | 11.0% | 2.6% | 4.29 | 4.30 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 50 | — | 50 | 210 | 49 | 23 | 5 | 23.4% | 11.1% | 2.6% | 4.32 | 4.34 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 47 | 23 | 5 | 23.2% | 11.2% | 2.7% | 4.37 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 45 | 22 | 5 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 2.7% | 4.43 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 43 | 22 | 5 | 22.7% | 11.5% | 2.8% | 4.51 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 43 | — | 43 | 180 | 40 | 21 | 5 | 22.4% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 4.60 | 4.66 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 41 | — | 41 | 171 | 38 | 20 | 5 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 3.0% | 4.70 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 38 | — | 38 | 162 | 35 | 20 | 5 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 4.82 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 36 | — | 36 | 151 | 32 | 19 | 5 | 21.2% | 12.3% | 3.2% | 4.94 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 112 | 34 | 245 | 1078 | 236 | 170 | 18 | 21.9% | 15.8% | 1.7% | 4.07 | 4.16 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 91 | 28 | 200 | 879 | 192 | 139 | 15 | 21.9% | 15.8% | 1.7% | 4.07 | 4.16 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Douglas Orellana (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 23.0% | 12.4% | 2.4% | — | 4.26 | 23.5% | 12.4% | 156 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Luis Ramirez R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.73 | 24.0% | 12.6% | 1.9% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 104 | 94 |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.51 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.1% | .293 | 7.98 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.47 | 4.42 | 155 | 93 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.00 | 22.4% | 13.6% | 2.0% | .331 | 4.03 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 105 | +0.03 | 3.31 | 213 | 93 |
| Todd Van Steensel R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.78 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 2.0% | .294 | 3.31 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 157 | -0.47 | 2.87 | 223 | 92 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.74 | 22.7% | 13.6% | 1.5% | .270 | 4.00 | 22.6% | 8.2% | 94 | +0.26 | 3.60 | 154 | 92 |
| Zack Jones R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.56 | 23.9% | 14.0% | 1.3% | .280 | 3.63 | 28.1% | 10.9% | 57 | +0.07 | 2.56 | 109 | 91 |
| Max Alba R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.50 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .290 | 4.91 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 162 | +0.41 | 4.50 | 217 | 91 |
| Peter Tago R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.66 | 24.4% | 14.0% | 1.5% | .303 | 3.44 | 23.6% | 8.3% | 39 | -0.22 | 3.26 | 207 | 91 |
| Craig Schlitter R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.61 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 2.7% | .298 | 4.70 | 14.7% | 4.2% | 171 | +0.09 | 4.23 | 222 | 91 |
| Tommy Kahnle R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.17 | 23.8% | 14.8% | 2.2% | .284 | 2.58 | 30.9% | 21.0% | 165 | -1.59 | 1.53 | 433 | 90 |
| Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.58 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 2.9% | .341 | 4.72 | 15.7% | 4.0% | 343 | +0.14 | 4.04 | 404 | 89 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 89 |
| Johnny Barbato R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.65 | 22.4% | 11.2% | 1.8% | .282 | 4.58 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 105 | +0.93 | 2.57 | 304 | 89 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.91 | 22.4% | 14.2% | 3.5% | .327 | 4.68 | 22.3% | 12.1% | 127 | -0.23 | 3.38 | 188 | 89 |
| Drew Rasmussen R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.64 | 24.6% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .312 | 3.22 | 22.7% | 16.2% | 237 | -0.42 | 1.21 | 538 | 89 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.10 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.74 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.64 | 4.10 | 105 | 89 |
| Bud Jeter R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.71 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 1.3% | .318 | 3.65 | 21.4% | 10.4% | 101 | -0.06 | 3.12 | 226 | 89 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.2% | .288 | 3.83 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | -0.03 | 3.40 | 134 | 88 |
| Shane Broyles R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 24.3% | 15.3% | 1.9% | .328 | 3.62 | 26.4% | 17.1% | 108 | -0.40 | 3.30 | 218 | 88 |
| Trevor Holloway R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.44 | 21.9% | 11.7% | 1.3% | .266 | 4.55 | 17.9% | 6.1% | 43 | +1.11 | 3.44 | 112 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.8M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.3M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.0M |
| Totals | $5M | $8M | +$3M | ||