Amilcar Chirinos

P Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 235 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	AHOU	24	35	4.15	2.09	26.2%	6.7%	—	K 19.4% · BB 7.9% · FIP 2.90
2025	23	MIX2 levels	46	52	4.85	3.72	28.1%	12.1%	—	K 22.1% · BB 13.5% · FIP 4.44
2026	24	AAHOU	49	57	3.32	3.68	31.7%	18.5%	—	K 25.7% · BB 20.4% · FIP 4.60
2027PROJ	25	MLBHOU	35	37	5.05	5.05	24.1%	16.6%	-0.2
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBHOU	21	22	4.96	4.95	24.2%	15.8%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBHOU	30	32	4.93	4.94	24.1%	15.4%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsCJ Weins (age 23) · Maikel Cleto (age 25) · Caleb Simpson (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.05

FIP5.05

K%24.1%

BB%16.6%

K-BB%7.5%

Proj IP37

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros	6	0	10	39	13	3	0	0%	1.7	33.3%	7.7%	25.6%	0.0%	2.61	1.26	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Astros	6	0	10	39	13	3	0	0%	1.7	33.3%	7.7%	25.6%	0.0%	2.61	1.45	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL HOU Orange	12	7	31	122	46	12	1	58%	2.6	25.6%	12.3%	13.3%	1.3%	1.44	3.18	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL HOU Orange	12	7	31	122	46	12	1	58%	2.6	37.7%	9.8%	27.9%	0.8%	1.44	1.73	—
2023	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	17	10	60	267	61	35	3	59%	3.5	16.9%	15.5%	1.4%	1.5%	4.20	4.44	—
2023	21	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	17	10	60	267	61	35	3	59%	3.5	22.8%	13.1%	9.7%	1.1%	4.20	3.47	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	24	0	35	149	39	10	1	0%	1.4	19.4%	7.9%	11.4%	0.8%	4.15	2.90	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	24	0	35	149	39	10	1	0%	1.4	19.4%	7.9%	11.4%	0.8%	4.15	2.90	—
2024	22	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	24	0	35	149	39	10	1	0%	1.4	26.2%	6.7%	19.5%	0.7%	4.15	2.09	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	52	231	65	28	6	0%	1.1	22.1%	13.5%	8.6%	2.7%	4.85	4.44	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	52	231	65	28	6	0%	1.1	22.1%	13.5%	8.6%	2.7%	4.85	4.44	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	52	231	65	28	6	0%	1.1	28.1%	12.1%	16.0%	2.6%	4.85	3.72	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	49	0	57	243	77	45	4	0%	1.2	25.7%	20.4%	5.3%	2.0%	3.32	4.60	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	49	0	57	243	77	45	4	0%	1.2	25.7%	20.4%	5.3%	2.0%	3.32	4.60	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Corpus Christi Hooks	49	0	57	243	77	45	4	0%	1.2	31.7%	18.5%	13.2%	1.6%	3.32	3.68	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	HOU	35	0	37	156	38	26	4	0%	1.1	24.1%	16.6%	7.5%	2.7%	5.05	5.05	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	HOU	49	0	51	217	52	34	6	0%	1.0	24.2%	15.8%	8.4%	2.8%	4.96	4.95	-0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	HOU	48	0	50	213	51	33	6	0%	1.1	24.1%	15.4%	8.7%	2.8%	4.93	4.94	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	HOU	21	0	22	93	22	15	3	0%	1.0	24.2%	15.8%	8.4%	2.8%	4.96	4.95	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	HOU	30	0	32	135	33	21	4	0%	1.1	24.1%	15.4%	8.7%	2.8%	4.93	4.94	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		52	0	55	230	56	36	6	0%	1.0	24.1%	15.6%	8.6%	2.8%	4.94	4.57	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	205	132	22	0%	1.1	24.1%	15.6%	8.6%	2.8%	4.94	4.57	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		154	17	245	1051	232	152	18	11%	1.6	22.1%	14.5%	7.6%	1.7%	3.71	3.99	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		126	14	200	857	189	124	14	11%	1.6	22.1%	14.5%	7.6%	1.7%	3.71	3.99	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Amilcar Chirinos (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.05	24.1%	16.6%	2.7%	—	4.95	24.2%	8.6%	102	-0.10	—	—	—
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	88
Maikel Cleto R 2014 · 4.24 FIP	25	SU	4.24	23.2%	15.2%	2.1%	.256	3.45	25.4%	14.5%	106	-0.79	2.59	185	88
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	87
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	87
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	86
Eduardo Herrera R 2024 · 4.13 FIP	24	SU	4.13	25.5%	15.7%	2.2%	.284	4.44	16.7%	-5.0%	31	+0.31	4.13	127	86
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	86
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	86
Carter Loewen R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	23.1%	15.0%	2.2%	.312	4.16	20.0%	11.9%	23	-0.10	2.67	145	85
Christopher Troye R 2024 · 5.46 FIP	25	SU	5.46	24.2%	17.0%	4.1%	.282	5.61	19.1%	-3.8%	30	+0.15	3.42	158	85
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	85
LJ McDonough R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	22.6%	16.7%	2.3%	.385	4.85	20.0%	2.8%	90	+0.31	4.16	127	84
Matt Blackham R 2018 · 3.93 FIP	25	SU	3.93	24.9%	15.7%	1.7%	.236	4.81	25.9%	12.0%	80	+0.88	2.08	187	84
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	84
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	84
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	84
Kyle Wilcox R 2019 · 5.16 FIP	25	SU	5.16	25.1%	21.2%	2.7%	.310	5.57	25.1%	-1.5%	13	+0.41	2.78	310	83
Craig Brooks R 2018 · 3.95 FIP	25	SU	3.95	23.4%	15.1%	1.7%	.260	5.58	31.1%	15.9%	59	+1.63	3.23	229	83
Evan Johnson R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	23.6%	17.6%	2.4%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	83
Brad Boxberger R 2013 · 4.40 FIP	25	SU	4.40	25.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.296	3.54	32.3%	22.2%	152	-0.86	2.63	478	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	24.1%	15.9%	1.07	4.97
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*