Brock Porter — OGILVIE

Brock Porter P Hub City Spartanburgers

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 208 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION76 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.68

FIP5.68

K%19.8%

BB%17.5%

K-BB%2.2%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 82 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3030

CMD4040

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	21	21	69	293	95	42	1	100%	3.3	24.0%	16.9%	7.1%	0.4%	2.47	3.44	—
2023	20	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	21	21	69	293	95	42	1	100%	3.3	24.0%	16.9%	7.1%	0.4%	2.47	3.44	—
2023	20	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	21	21	69	293	95	42	1	100%	3.3	32.4%	14.3%	18.1%	0.3%	2.47	2.36	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	7	19	101	18	24	2	88%	2.4	12.1%	24.6%	-12.4%	2.4%	6.98	6.50	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	7	19	101	18	24	2	88%	2.4	12.1%	24.6%	-12.4%	2.4%	6.98	6.50	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	7	19	101	18	24	2	88%	2.4	17.8%	23.8%	-5.9%	2.0%	6.98	6.31	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	68	294	79	40	8	0%	1.6	19.6%	15.5%	4.2%	3.5%	3.03	5.30	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	68	294	79	40	8	0%	1.6	19.6%	15.5%	4.2%	3.5%	3.03	5.30	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	68	294	79	40	8	0%	1.6	26.9%	13.6%	13.3%	2.7%	3.03	4.07	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	23	1	76	352	90	60	9	4%	3.3	19.9%	19.4%	0.6%	3.2%	4.01	5.61	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	23	1	76	352	90	60	9	4%	3.3	19.9%	19.4%	0.6%	3.2%	4.01	5.61	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	TEX	18	1	59	271	69	43	7	6%	3.3	25.5%	15.9%	9.6%	2.6%	3.81	4.38	—
2026	23	AA RAW	TEX	5	0	17	81	21	17	2	0%	3.5	25.9%	21.0%	4.9%	2.5%	4.67	4.92	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	TEX	5	0	5	22	4	4	1	0%	1.0	19.8%	17.5%	2.2%	3.0%	5.68	5.68	-0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	82	374	94	64	10	—	—	25.2%	17.1%	8.2%	2.6%	4.12	5.61	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TEX	73	0	77	324	67	49	10	0%	1.1	20.7%	15.3%	5.4%	3.0%	5.39	5.30	-0.6
2028	25	MLB MLE	TEX	74	0	78	328	70	45	10	0%	1.1	21.2%	13.8%	7.4%	3.0%	5.16	5.06	-0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	TEX	74	0	78	328	71	44	10	0%	1.1	21.6%	13.5%	8.0%	3.0%	5.05	5.00	-0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	TEX	73	0	76	323	70	44	10	0%	1.0	21.6%	13.5%	8.1%	3.0%	5.02	5.02	-0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	TEX	71	0	74	313	67	43	10	0%	1.0	21.5%	13.7%	7.8%	3.1%	5.07	5.10	-0.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	TEX	68	0	71	299	64	42	10	0%	1.0	21.2%	13.9%	7.3%	3.3%	5.17	5.23	-0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	TEX	63	0	67	281	59	40	10	0%	1.1	20.9%	14.2%	6.7%	3.5%	5.32	5.41	-0.6
2027	24	MLB CTX	TEX	31	0	33	139	29	21	4	0%	1.1	20.7%	15.3%	5.4%	3.0%	5.39	5.30	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	TEX	50	0	52	220	47	30	6	0%	1.0	21.2%	13.8%	7.4%	3.0%	5.16	5.06	-0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	TEX	59	0	62	262	56	35	8	0%	1.1	21.6%	13.5%	8.0%	3.0%	5.05	5.00	-0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	TEX	62	0	65	274	59	37	8	0%	1.0	21.6%	13.5%	8.1%	3.0%	5.02	5.02	-0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	TEX	63	0	66	279	60	38	9	0%	1.0	21.5%	13.7%	7.8%	3.1%	5.07	5.10	-0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	TEX	61	0	64	270	57	38	9	0%	1.0	21.2%	13.9%	7.3%	3.3%	5.17	5.23	-0.5
2033	30	MLB CTX	TEX	58	0	61	258	54	37	9	0%	1.1	20.9%	14.2%	6.7%	3.5%	5.32	5.41	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		384	0	403	1703	362	236	53	0%	1.1	21.3%	13.9%	7.4%	3.1%	5.15	4.77	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	179	117	26	0%	1.1	21.3%	13.9%	7.4%	3.1%	5.15	4.77	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		94	29	233	1040	210	188	25	31%	2.5	20.2%	18.1%	2.2%	2.4%	3.51	5.00	-3.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		81	25	200	891	180	161	21	31%	2.5	20.2%	18.1%	2.2%	2.4%	3.51	5.00	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brock Porter (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.68	19.8%	17.5%	3.0%	—	5.12	21.2%	7.0%	232	-0.56	—	—	—
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	88
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	85
Cole Percival R 2022 · 5.21 FIP	23	SU	5.21	15.4%	14.5%	2.9%	.297	4.27	17.9%	5.9%	182	-0.94	3.58	327	82
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	82
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	82
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	82
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	82
Kris Hall R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	18.3%	17.8%	1.5%	.281	7.01	12.7%	-7.8%	34	+2.38	4.63	106	82
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	81
Will McAffer R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	22	SU	4.68	20.4%	18.1%	1.8%	.270	5.96	18.5%	-4.0%	77	+1.28	4.68	133	81
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	80
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	79
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	79
Dylan Heid R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SU	4.70	21.6%	16.9%	2.4%	.287	3.33	22.6%	9.0%	103	-1.37	2.66	135	79
Jared Kelley R 2023 · 5.03 FIP	21	SW	5.03	18.9%	19.4%	1.9%	.365	4.90	16.4%	0.7%	99	-0.13	4.25	250	78
Jon Keller R 2016 · 5.48 FIP	23	SW	5.48	15.3%	20.9%	1.9%	.265	3.84	8.9%	-2.9%	15	-1.64	3.64	156	78
Cole Aker R 2019 · 5.60 FIP	22	SW	5.60	19.5%	20.6%	2.8%	.239	6.17	12.0%	-9.9%	28	+0.57	3.60	147	78
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.17	18.2%	4.9%	93	-0.19	3.20	213	78
David Trexler R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	17.7%	13.4%	2.4%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.18	4.44	100	78
Luis Ledo R 2018 · 5.51 FIP	23	SU	5.51	17.1%	17.6%	3.0%	.329	3.65	20.8%	8.0%	85	-1.86	3.27	376	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	73	21.1%	14.4%	1.19	5.22
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22