Juan Amarante — OGILVIE

Juan Amarante P Jersey Shore BlueClaws

Age 22 LHP 5'10" / 197 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122130vR 139

ERA5.55

FIP5.55

K%15.2%

BB%13.9%

K-BB%1.3%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	15	0	29	118	40	10	1	0%	1.9	23.1%	10.6%	12.5%	1.4%	2.79	3.26	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	15	0	29	118	40	10	1	0%	1.9	33.9%	8.5%	25.4%	0.8%	2.79	1.82	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	10	9	28	117	37	18	0	90%	2.8	21.5%	19.2%	2.3%	0.0%	2.86	3.72	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	10	9	28	117	37	18	0	90%	2.8	21.5%	19.2%	2.3%	0.0%	2.86	3.72	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	10	9	28	117	37	18	0	90%	2.8	31.6%	15.4%	16.2%	0.0%	2.86	2.39	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	11	73	318	86	37	8	50%	3.3	18.9%	14.3%	4.7%	3.3%	4.56	5.10	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	11	73	318	86	37	8	50%	3.3	18.9%	14.3%	4.7%	3.3%	4.56	5.10	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	11	73	318	86	37	8	50%	3.3	27.0%	11.6%	15.4%	2.5%	4.56	3.69	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	17	77	335	74	31	5	94%	4.3	15.9%	11.1%	4.8%	1.8%	4.34	4.15	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	17	77	335	74	31	5	94%	4.3	15.9%	11.1%	4.8%	1.8%	4.34	4.15	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	17	77	335	74	31	5	94%	4.3	22.1%	9.3%	12.8%	1.5%	4.34	3.23	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	27	7	58	248	71	31	4	26%	2.1	21.2%	14.7%	6.5%	2.4%	3.43	4.48	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	27	7	58	248	71	31	4	26%	2.1	21.2%	14.7%	6.5%	2.4%	3.43	4.48	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	PHI	6	1	7	28	11	3	0	17%	1.2	39.3%	10.7%	28.6%	0.0%	2.57	1.14	—
2026	22	A RAW	PHI	2	0	1	9	2	1	0	0%	0.7	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	13.50	2.63	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	PHI	19	6	49	211	58	27	4	32%	2.6	27.5%	12.8%	14.7%	1.9%	3.28	3.44	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	PHI	68	0	72	302	52	38	9	0%	1.1	17.1%	12.7%	4.5%	2.9%	5.29	5.21	-0.5
2028	24	MLB MLE	PHI	70	0	73	310	56	37	9	0%	1.0	18.2%	11.9%	6.3%	2.8%	5.09	5.01	-0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	PHI	71	0	74	314	59	36	9	0%	1.0	18.9%	11.4%	7.4%	2.8%	4.96	4.89	-0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	PHI	71	0	74	314	60	36	9	0%	1.0	19.2%	11.3%	7.8%	2.8%	4.89	4.86	-0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	PHI	70	0	73	309	59	35	9	0%	1.0	19.1%	11.4%	7.7%	2.9%	4.89	4.89	-0.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	PHI	68	0	71	300	57	35	9	0%	1.0	19.0%	11.6%	7.5%	3.0%	4.94	4.98	-0.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	PHI	65	0	68	286	54	34	9	0%	1.0	18.8%	11.8%	7.0%	3.1%	5.04	5.11	-0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	PHI	61	0	64	269	50	33	9	0%	1.0	18.4%	12.1%	6.4%	3.3%	5.19	5.29	-0.5
2027	23	MLB CTX	PHI	33	0	35	148	25	19	4	0%	1.1	17.1%	12.7%	4.5%	2.9%	5.29	5.21	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	PHI	49	0	51	215	39	26	6	0%	1.0	18.2%	11.9%	6.3%	2.8%	5.09	5.01	-0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	PHI	57	0	60	253	48	29	7	0%	1.1	18.9%	11.4%	7.4%	2.8%	4.96	4.89	-0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	PHI	62	0	65	274	53	31	8	0%	1.0	19.2%	11.3%	7.8%	2.8%	4.89	4.86	-0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	PHI	63	0	66	279	53	32	8	0%	1.0	19.1%	11.4%	7.7%	2.9%	4.89	4.89	-0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	PHI	62	0	65	274	52	32	8	0%	1.0	19.0%	11.6%	7.5%	3.0%	4.94	4.98	-0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	PHI	60	0	63	266	50	31	8	0%	1.1	18.8%	11.8%	7.0%	3.1%	5.04	5.11	-0.4
2034	30	MLB CTX	PHI	57	0	60	253	47	31	8	0%	1.1	18.4%	12.1%	6.4%	3.3%	5.19	5.29	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		444	0	466	1968	368	231	59	0%	1.1	18.7%	11.7%	7.0%	3.0%	5.02	4.64	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	158	99	25	0%	1.1	18.7%	11.7%	7.0%	3.0%	5.02	4.64	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		92	44	265	1136	218	154	24	48%	2.9	19.2%	13.6%	5.7%	2.1%	3.88	4.35	-3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	33	200	858	165	116	18	48%	2.9	19.2%	13.6%	5.7%	2.1%	3.88	4.35	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Amarante (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.55	15.2%	13.9%	2.9%	—	5.03	18.1%	6.1%	219	-0.52	—	—	—
Estevan Gonzalez L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	23	SW	4.77	14.1%	10.7%	2.8%	.322	4.86	14.7%	0.1%	130	+0.09	4.58	195	86
Alex Winkelman L 2016 · 4.44 FIP	22	SW	4.44	15.8%	14.7%	1.5%	.344	3.77	18.8%	6.5%	181	-0.67	3.40	246	83
Lane Ratliff L 2017 · 6.08 FIP	22	SP-	6.08	12.0%	12.8%	4.3%	.344	3.25	15.9%	7.7%	80	-2.83	2.85	109	82
Scott Squier L 2015 · 5.28 FIP	22	SW	5.28	12.2%	11.2%	3.3%	.362	4.06	13.9%	7.9%	234	-1.22	3.29	276	82
Andrew Faulkner L 2015 · 4.74 FIP	22	SP-	4.74	18.0%	12.8%	2.8%	.290	4.06	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.68	3.70	252	82
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	81
Victor Payano L 2015 · 6.06 FIP	22	SP-	6.06	14.8%	16.5%	3.9%	.287	4.82	20.5%	7.0%	225	-1.24	3.78	341	81
Austin Davis L 2015 · 4.83 FIP	22	SW	4.83	14.7%	12.4%	2.5%	.259	2.97	23.3%	15.8%	151	-1.86	2.19	486	81
Tom Windle L 2015 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	12.3%	13.0%	1.7%	.304	4.33	18.0%	6.8%	159	-0.30	3.68	330	80
Ryan Lawlor L 2016 · 4.52 FIP	22	SP-	4.52	16.1%	15.8%	1.4%	.264	2.42	25.5%	15.1%	119	-2.10	2.24	201	80
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.32	17.8%	4.0%	148	-0.55	4.79	193	80
Parker Rigler L 2017 · 6.33 FIP	22	SP-	6.33	13.8%	13.3%	5.0%	.318	4.59	14.5%	4.0%	140	-1.74	4.59	192	79
Edwin Escobar L 2015 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	9.6%	11.9%	3.9%	.268	4.28	13.7%	4.9%	122	-1.68	4.28	218	78
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	77
Gabriel Noguera L 2017 · 4.41 FIP	21	SP-	4.41	15.6%	15.0%	1.3%	.231	5.01	14.2%	2.1%	95	+0.60	4.41	174	77
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	77
Jack Patterson L 2018 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP-	4.72	14.7%	8.0%	3.4%	.299	3.10	19.4%	7.9%	80	-1.62	3.10	127	77
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	76
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	76
Adam Laskey L 2021 · 6.39 FIP	23	SP-	6.39	16.0%	21.0%	3.6%	.383	3.25	20.1%	10.5%	188	-3.14	3.12	310	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	69	18.3%	11.9%	1.14	5.08
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41