Juan Amarante — OGILVIE

Juan Amarante P Jersey Shore BlueClaws

+0.1 WAR

Age 22 LHP 5'10" / 197 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.8 · 2029

ERA4.60

FIP4.60

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%20.9%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%10.7%

IP71

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.8peak

2029

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	DSL Phillies White	15	0	29	118	40	10	1	23.1%	10.6%	1.7%	2.79	3.40	+0.5
2023	19	ROK	DSL Phillies Red	10	9	28	117	37	18	0	21.5%	19.2%	0.0%	2.86	3.72	+0.4
2024	20	A	Clearwater Threshers	22	11	73	318	86	37	8	18.9%	14.3%	3.2%	4.56	5.09	-0.0
2025	21	A	Clearwater Threshers	18	17	77	335	74	31	5	15.9%	11.1%	1.8%	4.34	4.14	+0.8
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	A+	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	3	0	6	28	4	4	0	—	—	—	4.76	—	—
ROS	22	MLB	PHI	13	13	71	299	62	31	9	20.9%	10.2%	2.9%	4.60	4.60	+0.4
2026 Total	22	MLB	PHI	—	—	76	327	66	35	9	20.4%	10.6%	2.6%	4.61	4.26	+0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	23	MLB	PHI	13	13	73	310	68	30	9	21.9%	9.5%	2.9%	4.47	4.41	+0.5
2028	24	MLB	PHI	14	14	75	318	72	29	9	22.6%	9.1%	2.8%	4.36	4.29	+0.7
2029	25	MLB	PHI	14	14	76	321	74	29	9	23.0%	8.9%	2.8%	4.27	4.22	+0.8
2030	26	MLB	PHI	14	14	76	321	75	28	9	23.2%	8.8%	2.8%	4.23	4.20	+0.8
2031	27	MLB	PHI	14	14	76	319	74	28	9	23.2%	8.9%	2.9%	4.22	4.21	+0.7
2032	28	MLB	PHI	14	14	74	314	73	28	9	23.2%	8.9%	2.9%	4.23	4.24	+0.7
2033	29	MLB	PHI	13	13	73	307	71	28	9	23.0%	9.0%	2.9%	4.26	4.28	+0.6
2034	30	MLB	PHI	13	13	70	298	68	27	9	22.8%	9.1%	3.0%	4.31	4.34	+0.6
2035	31	MLB	PHI	12	12	68	287	65	26	9	22.6%	9.2%	3.1%	4.38	4.42	+0.5
2036	32	MLB	PHI	12	12	65	276	62	26	9	22.3%	9.4%	3.1%	4.45	4.50	+0.4
2037	33	MLB	PHI	11	11	62	263	58	25	9	22.0%	9.6%	3.2%	4.54	4.60	+0.3
2038	34	MLB	PHI	59	—	59	250	54	24	8	21.6%	9.8%	3.3%	4.64	4.71	+0.2
2039	35	MLB	PHI	56	—	56	236	50	24	8	21.3%	10.0%	3.4%	4.76	4.83	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			68	37	213	916	170	121	18	18.5%	13.3%	2.0%	4.02	4.31	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—			64	35	200	861	160	114	17	18.5%	13.3%	2.0%	4.02	4.31	+2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Amarante (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.60	20.9%	10.2%	2.9%	—	4.31	22.5%	13.3%	225	-0.29	—	—	—
Evan Shawver L 2026 · 4.28 FIP	22	SW	4.28	18.8%	10.6%	2.6%	.289	4.77	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.49	4.09	219	95
Nate Peterson L 2027 · 4.45 FIP	23	SW	4.45	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	4.96	17.1%	5.7%	161	+0.51	4.32	236	94
Keylan Killgore L 2026 · 4.24 FIP	22	SW	4.24	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	161	92
Kyle Twomey L 2026 · 4.07 FIP	22	SW	4.07	17.6%	10.5%	2.1%	.298	3.95	14.8%	6.9%	68	-0.12	3.95	141	92
Will Mabrey L 2026 · 4.26 FIP	22	SW	4.26	18.5%	12.6%	2.1%	.256	4.29	19.2%	7.0%	46	+0.03	4.26	112	91
Joe Kemlage L 2027 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	19.4%	13.5%	2.2%	.278	5.32	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.91	4.41	128	91
Connor Oliver L 2027 · 4.35 FIP	23	SW	4.35	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.49	18.6%	0.1%	50	+2.14	4.35	129	90
Christian MacLeod L 2027 · 4.51 FIP	23	SW	4.51	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.36	20.4%	7.2%	170	-0.15	3.87	236	90
Felix Carvallo L 2026 · 4.52 FIP	22	SW	4.52	17.7%	13.0%	2.3%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	4.52	132	90
Bailey Horn L 2027 · 4.96 FIP	23	SW	4.96	19.7%	12.7%	3.5%	.300	4.72	22.7%	9.5%	152	-0.24	3.96	265	89
Shane McCain L 2027 · 4.31 FIP	23	SW	4.31	19.8%	9.7%	3.0%	.324	4.65	16.6%	10.0%	125	+0.34	4.31	201	89
Caden Monke L 2026 · 5.47 FIP	22	SW	5.47	18.9%	12.8%	4.3%	.323	5.37	19.0%	-0.3%	51	-0.10	5.37	118	88
Dante Biasi L 2027 · 4.91 FIP	23	SW	4.91	21.5%	12.6%	3.7%	.251	5.64	19.3%	2.3%	153	+0.73	4.91	224	88
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2026 · 4.47 FIP	22	SW	4.47	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.91	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.56	2.97	146	88
Daniel Stumpf L 2028 · 4.26 FIP	24	SW	4.26	20.8%	11.5%	2.6%	.268	3.50	22.5%	15.3%	123	-0.76	1.84	238	88
Ryne Slack L 2027 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	18.8%	9.0%	2.6%	.293	4.99	15.4%	2.5%	142	+0.91	4.08	212	88
Russell Smith L 2027 · 5.20 FIP	23	SW	5.20	16.0%	10.4%	3.9%	.272	4.61	21.2%	7.8%	107	-0.59	3.98	175	87
Cam Alldred L 2027 · 4.61 FIP	23	SW	4.61	18.1%	11.0%	3.0%	.323	4.24	18.5%	7.9%	132	-0.37	3.70	332	87
R.C. Orlan L 2028 · 3.91 FIP	24	SW	3.91	21.0%	10.9%	2.2%	.326	4.61	17.2%	5.0%	119	+0.70	1.71	206	87
Sam Weatherly L 2026 · 4.04 FIP	22	SW	4.04	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.10	4.04	158	85

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.8M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.5	$3M	+$2M
Totals		$6M		$19M	+$14M