Junior William — OGILVIE

Junior William P Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 187 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 21 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.86

FIP4.86

K%21.3%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%9.2%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 1	16	1	30	118	27	9	1	6%	1.9	15.6%	9.5%	6.0%	1.3%	1.50	3.71	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	DSL Rays 1	16	1	30	118	27	9	1	6%	1.9	22.9%	7.6%	15.3%	0.8%	1.50	2.63	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	0	12	48	13	1	1	0%	1.4	27.1%	2.1%	25.0%	2.1%	2.19	2.22	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	0	12	48	13	1	1	0%	1.4	27.1%	2.1%	25.0%	2.1%	2.19	2.29	—
2023	23	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	34	0	46	214	60	39	1	0%	1.4	20.7%	21.5%	-0.8%	0.6%	3.69	4.38	—
2023	23	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	34	0	46	214	60	39	1	0%	1.4	20.7%	21.5%	-0.8%	0.6%	3.69	4.38	—
2023	23	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	34	0	46	214	60	39	1	0%	1.4	28.0%	18.2%	9.8%	0.5%	3.69	3.32	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	39	175	46	18	4	0%	1.2	20.3%	10.8%	9.5%	3.4%	4.38	4.61	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	39	175	46	18	4	0%	1.2	20.3%	10.8%	9.5%	3.4%	4.38	4.61	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	39	175	46	18	4	0%	1.2	26.3%	10.3%	16.0%	2.3%	4.38	3.46	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	36	0	49	211	57	25	2	0%	1.4	21.1%	13.4%	7.7%	1.2%	4.04	3.66	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	36	0	49	211	57	25	2	0%	1.4	21.1%	13.4%	7.7%	1.2%	4.04	3.66	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	A+ RAW	TB	26	0	34	142	40	15	2	0%	1.3	28.2%	10.6%	17.6%	1.4%	3.21	2.83	—
2026	26	AA RAW	TB	10	0	15	69	17	10	0	0%	1.5	24.6%	14.5%	10.1%	0.0%	5.87	2.86	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	TB	45	0	47	200	43	24	6	0%	1.1	21.5%	11.9%	9.6%	3.1%	4.83	4.84	-0.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	TB	44	0	46	194	42	23	6	0%	1.0	21.5%	11.8%	9.7%	3.1%	4.85	4.89	-0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	TB	42	0	44	185	40	22	6	0%	1.0	21.4%	11.9%	9.5%	3.3%	4.92	4.99	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	TB	16	0	17	72	15	9	2	0%	1.1	21.5%	11.9%	9.6%	3.1%	4.83	4.84	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	TB	26	0	27	114	25	13	4	0%	1.0	21.5%	11.8%	9.7%	3.1%	4.85	4.89	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	TB	30	0	31	131	28	16	4	0%	1.0	21.4%	11.9%	9.5%	3.3%	4.92	4.99	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		72	0	75	318	68	38	10	0%	1.0	21.5%	11.9%	9.6%	3.2%	4.87	4.54	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	181	101	27	0%	1.1	21.5%	11.9%	9.6%	3.2%	4.87	4.54	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		127	1	177	766	156	106	12	1%	1.4	20.4%	13.8%	6.6%	1.6%	3.46	4.00	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		144	1	200	867	177	119	14	1%	1.4	20.4%	13.8%	6.6%	1.6%	3.46	4.00	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Junior William (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	21.3%	12.1%	3.0%	—	4.90	21.5%	9.6%	137	+0.04	—	—	—
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	88
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	87
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	87
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	87
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	87
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	87
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	86
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	85
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	84
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	84
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	84
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	84
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	83
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	83
Matt Wivinis R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	19.5%	12.2%	1.5%	.262	5.95	14.5%	6.2%	17	+2.11	1.61	124	83
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	82
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	82
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	82
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	82
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	40	21.5%	11.9%	1.21	4.86
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22