Andrew Morris

P Minnesota Twins

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 195 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.6 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX3 levels	26	24	133	2.37	2.41	24.5%	5.9%	—	K 19.8% · BB 6.2% · FIP 2.88
2025	23	AAAMIN	21	19	95	4.09	3.62	22.4%	7.0%	—	K 19.2% · BB 6.3% · FIP 3.61
2026	24	MIX2 levels	66	5	81	4.11	3.00	21.2%	7.2%	1.5	K 21.5% · BB 7.2% · FIP 3.04
2027PROJ	25	MLBMIN	50	0	53	3.84	3.69	22.4%	6.8%	0.6
2028PROJ88% MLB	26	MLBMIN	54	0	57	3.81	3.74	22.5%	6.8%	0.6
2029PROJ91% MLB	27	MLBMIN	45	0	47	3.83	3.81	22.5%	7.0%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.988First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$0.7M2031Arb-2$0.8M2032Arb-3$0.8M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

xwOBA vs80

K%45

Form6.85 ERA (proj 3.84) · K 16.5% (proj 22.4%) · BB 10.1% (proj 6.8%) ▼▼ last 90d · 24 IP through Oct 27

CompsDavid Phelps (age 25) · Shohei Tomioka (age 25) · Brock Stewart (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9789vR 81

ERA3.84

FIP3.69

K%22.4%

BB%6.8%

K-BB%15.6%

Proj IP64

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.4

Whiff%

p3423.0%

p4521.5%

xwOBA vs

p800.283

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.988 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Arb-1	$0.7M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.4M
2031	Arb-2	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.1M
2032	Arb-3	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$8M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	17	84	357	79	19	4	94%	4.7	16.6%	6.2%	10.4%	1.4%	2.88	3.23	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	17	84	357	79	19	4	94%	4.7	22.1%	5.3%	16.8%	1.1%	2.88	2.52	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	24	133	542	133	32	6	92%	5.1	19.8%	6.2%	13.7%	1.2%	2.37	2.88	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	24	133	542	133	32	6	92%	5.1	19.8%	6.2%	13.7%	1.2%	2.37	2.88	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	24	133	542	133	32	6	92%	5.1	24.5%	5.9%	18.6%	1.1%	2.37	2.41	—
2025	23	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	21	19	95	398	89	28	11	90%	4.5	19.2%	6.3%	12.9%	2.4%	4.09	3.61	—
2025	23	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	21	19	95	398	89	28	11	90%	4.5	19.2%	6.3%	12.9%	2.4%	4.09	3.61	—
2025	23	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	21	19	95	398	89	28	11	90%	4.5	22.4%	7.0%	15.3%	2.8%	4.09	3.62	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	5	81	349	74	25	5	8%	1.2	21.5%	7.2%	14.3%	1.5%	4.11	3.04	+1.5
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	5	81	349	74	25	5	8%	1.2	21.5%	7.2%	14.3%	1.5%	4.11	3.04	+1.5
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	66	5	81	349	74	25	5	8%	1.2	21.2%	7.2%	14.0%	1.4%	4.11	3.00	+1.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			64	3	74	321	69	23	5	5%	1.2	21.5%	7.2%	14.3%	1.6%	4.40	3.05	+1.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	MIN	50	0	53	224	50	15	5	0%	1.1	22.4%	6.8%	15.6%	2.3%	3.84	3.69	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIN	61	0	64	272	61	19	6	0%	1.1	22.5%	6.8%	15.7%	2.3%	3.80	3.73	+0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIN	49	0	52	219	49	15	5	0%	1.1	22.5%	7.0%	15.5%	2.4%	3.82	3.80	+0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIN	44	0	46	196	44	14	5	0%	1.1	22.3%	7.1%	15.2%	2.6%	3.88	3.91	+0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIN	37	0	39	163	35	12	4	0%	1.0	21.7%	7.4%	14.3%	2.7%	4.00	4.08	+0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	MIN	29	0	30	128	27	10	4	0%	1.0	21.0%	7.7%	13.3%	2.9%	4.17	4.29	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIN	54	0	57	241	54	16	6	0%	1.1	22.5%	6.8%	15.7%	2.4%	3.81	3.74	+0.6
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIN	45	0	47	198	45	14	5	0%	1.0	22.5%	7.0%	15.5%	2.5%	3.83	3.81	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIN	41	0	43	182	41	13	5	0%	1.0	22.3%	7.1%	15.2%	2.6%	3.89	3.92	+0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIN	34	0	36	152	33	11	4	0%	1.1	21.7%	7.4%	14.3%	2.7%	4.01	4.09	+0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	MIN	28	0	29	122	26	9	4	0%	1.0	21.0%	7.7%	13.3%	2.9%	4.18	4.30	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		265	3	285	1214	267	87	28	1%	1.1	22.0%	7.1%	14.8%	2.3%	4.04	3.41	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		186	2	200	851	187	61	20	1%	1.1	22.0%	7.1%	14.8%	2.3%	4.04	3.41	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		132	65	394	1649	319	106	27	49%	3.0	19.4%	6.4%	12.9%	1.6%	3.24	3.16	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	33	200	837	162	54	14	49%	3.0	19.4%	6.4%	12.9%	1.6%	3.24	3.16	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASt. Paul Saints · 7 IPFIP 2.50 → 2.62 (+0.12)K% 17.9% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.86%	—	×0.860	15.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×0.900	6.43%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.50 → 2.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASt. Paul Saints · 95 IPFIP 3.62 → 3.61 (−0.01)K% 22.4% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.36%	—	×0.860	19.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.04%	—	×0.900	6.33%
HR / BF /BF	2.76%	÷1.253	×1.100	2.43%

Result: FIP 3.62 → 3.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAWichita Wind Surge · 62 IPFIP 1.90 → 2.47 (+0.57)K% 25.2% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.20%	—	×0.810	20.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.60%	—	×1.100	6.16%
HR / BF /BF	0.40%	÷0.845	×1.200	0.57%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 69).

Result: FIP 1.90 → 2.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 38 IPFIP 2.03 → 2.69 (+0.66)K% 27.9% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.92%	—	×0.770	21.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.55%	—	×1.150	5.23%
HR / BF /BF	1.30%	÷1.191	×1.250	1.36%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 138).

Result: FIP 2.03 → 2.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASt. Paul Saints · 34 IPFIP 3.65 → 3.85 (+0.20)K% 19.6% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.57%	—	×0.860	16.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.97%	—	×0.900	7.17%
HR / BF /BF	2.17%	÷1.039	×1.100	2.30%

Result: FIP 3.65 → 3.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 49 IPFIP 2.19 → 3.06 (+0.87)K% 25.5% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.50%	—	×0.740	18.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.50%	—	×1.180	6.49%
HR / BF /BF	1.00%	÷0.976	×1.300	1.33%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 2.19 → 3.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 36 IPFIP 2.94 → 3.45 (+0.52)K% 17.8% → 13.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.83%	—	×0.770	13.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.10%	—	×1.150	5.86%
HR / BF /BF	1.27%	÷1.134	×1.250	1.40%

Result: FIP 2.94 → 3.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Morris (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.3%	—	3.80	22.4%	15.5%	163	+0.11	—	—	—
David Phelps R 2012 · 3.98 FIP	25	SW	3.98	23.2%	8.7%	3.2%	.250	3.86	18.3%	10.1%	312	-0.12	2.50	672	73
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	71
Brock Stewart R 2017 · 3.82 FIP	25	SW	3.82	23.3%	9.2%	2.8%	.295	5.26	16.6%	7.8%	224	+1.44	1.51	622	71
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	70
Ryan Brown R 2024 · 3.11 FIP	23	SW	3.11	20.3%	8.6%	1.2%	.292	6.78	9.4%	3.8%	34	+3.67	3.11	103	69
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	69
Michael Baird R 2019 · 2.84 FIP	24	SP-	2.84	21.2%	8.3%	0.9%	.273	6.16	21.6%	13.1%	94	+3.32	2.84	132	68
Kevin McCanna R 2019 · 2.70 FIP	25	SW	2.70	22.7%	8.7%	0.8%	.287	5.08	16.5%	13.2%	16	+2.38	2.70	265	68
Jonathan Loáisiga R 2020 · 3.54 FIP	25	SW	3.54	22.0%	6.0%	2.8%	.261	2.90	20.2%	14.1%	136	-0.64	2.30	398	68
Peyton Pallette R 2024 · 4.38 FIP	23	SW	4.38	20.7%	10.9%	3.0%	.309	3.59	25.9%	13.5%	119	-0.79	3.54	273	68
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	68
Reinier Roibal R 2015 · 3.11 FIP	26	SU	3.11	19.1%	4.5%	1.9%	.262	4.37	16.9%	9.8%	35	+1.26	3.11	133	68
Tylor Megill R 2019 · 3.02 FIP	24	SW	3.02	22.2%	10.4%	0.9%	.331	3.91	26.8%	19.7%	177	+0.89	3.02	603	68
Domingo Tapia R 2017 · 3.57 FIP	25	SW	3.57	18.2%	7.6%	1.9%	.344	4.42	15.0%	4.3%	129	+0.85	3.57	395	68
Cole Sands R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	25	SP-	4.38	21.3%	8.9%	3.5%	.358	3.04	25.4%	19.1%	196	-1.34	2.28	474	68
Ryan Helsley R 2019 · 4.07 FIP	25	SW	4.07	22.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.279	3.30	31.1%	21.0%	124	-0.77	1.88	703	67
DJ Baxendale R 2016 · 2.88 FIP	25	SW	2.88	17.5%	5.5%	1.0%	.303	3.84	17.7%	10.1%	192	+0.96	2.88	426	67
Connor Sadzeck R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	25	SW	4.46	21.5%	10.3%	3.4%	.357	3.58	24.0%	12.6%	62	-0.88	3.20	549	67
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	67
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	53	22.0%	7.3%	0.89	3.99
Todd Worrell ('97)	1.7	55	23.4%	7.5%	0.95	3.58
Fernando Salas ('19)	2.4	54	23.1%	7.3%	1.05	3.91
Jose Alvarez ('22)	2.1	60	20.0%	7.6%	0.83	3.47
Ramon Hernandez ('67-'77, 6 WAR*)	2.2	61	19.7%*	7.3%*	0.77*	3.65*
Mike Perez ('90-'97, 3 WAR*)	1.7	58	18.5%*	8.2%*	0.88*	3.86*
Tony Castillo ('88-'98, 4 WAR*)	2.6	59	18.5%*	7.3%*	0.98*	3.76*