Andrew Morris
P
Minnesota Twins
Age 24
RHP
6'0" / 195 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.8 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 28 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8676vR 67
ERA3.17
FIP3.17
K%22.4%
BB%6.9%
K-BB%15.4%
ROS IP28
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p8296.8
Whiff%
p3623.3%
K%
p6424.7%
xwOBA vs
p900.268
CH (11%)
CT (18%)
SL (13%)
SI (12%)
CU (2%)
FB-2.1 (56%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | FCL Twins | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.29 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | FCL Twins | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.10 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 17 | 84 | 357 | 79 | 19 | 4 | 94% | 4.7 | 16.6% | 6.2% | 10.4% | 1.3% | 2.88 | 3.21 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 17 | 84 | 357 | 79 | 19 | 4 | 94% | 4.7 | 22.1% | 5.3% | 16.8% | 1.1% | 2.88 | 2.52 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 24 | 133 | 542 | 133 | 32 | 6 | 92% | 5.1 | 19.9% | 6.5% | 13.5% | 1.2% | 2.37 | 2.91 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 24 | 133 | 542 | 133 | 32 | 6 | 92% | 5.1 | 24.5% | 5.9% | 18.6% | 1.1% | 2.37 | 2.41 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 21 | 19 | 95 | 398 | 89 | 28 | 11 | 90% | 4.5 | 19.7% | 7.4% | 12.3% | 2.0% | 4.09 | 3.48 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 21 | 19 | 95 | 398 | 89 | 28 | 11 | 90% | 4.5 | 22.4% | 7.0% | 15.3% | 2.8% | 4.09 | 3.62 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 37 | 4 | 53 | 222 | 53 | 15 | 2 | 11% | 1.4 | 24.7% | 6.7% | 18.0% | 1.0% | 3.04 | 2.43 | +1.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIN | 26 | 0 | 28 | 117 | 26 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 6.9% | 15.4% | 2.0% | 3.17 | 3.17 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIN | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 26 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 6.9% | 15.4% | 2.0% | 3.18 | 3.18 | +0.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 81 | 339 | 79 | 23 | 4 | — | — | 23.4% | 6.8% | 16.5% | 1.3% | 3.08 | 2.68 | +2.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 74 | 311 | 79 | 23 | 4 | — | — | 25.4% | 7.4% | 18.0% | 1.4% | 3.39 | 2.65 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 71 | 0 | 74 | 315 | 71 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 7.0% | 15.4% | 2.1% | 3.63 | 3.61 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 71 | 0 | 74 | 315 | 71 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 7.1% | 15.5% | 2.1% | 3.66 | 3.64 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 70 | 0 | 73 | 310 | 70 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 7.3% | 15.4% | 2.2% | 3.70 | 3.71 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 68 | 0 | 71 | 301 | 68 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 7.5% | 15.1% | 2.3% | 3.77 | 3.81 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 64 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 7.8% | 14.6% | 2.5% | 3.87 | 3.94 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 59 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 8.1% | 13.9% | 2.7% | 4.02 | 4.12 | +0.4 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 68 | 0 | 71 | 300 | 67 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 7.0% | 15.4% | 2.1% | 3.64 | 3.62 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 68 | 0 | 71 | 300 | 68 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 7.1% | 15.5% | 2.1% | 3.67 | 3.65 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 67 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 7.3% | 15.4% | 2.2% | 3.71 | 3.72 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 65 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 7.5% | 15.1% | 2.4% | 3.78 | 3.82 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 61 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 7.8% | 14.6% | 2.5% | 3.88 | 3.95 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 57 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 8.1% | 13.9% | 2.7% | 4.03 | 4.13 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 446 | 2 | 478 | 2017 | 458 | 148 | 44 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 7.4% | 15.3% | 2.2% | 3.70 | 3.31 | +11.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 187 | 1 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 62 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 7.4% | 15.3% | 2.2% | 3.70 | 3.31 | +4.9 | ||
| Career | — | 103 | 64 | 366 | 1522 | 301 | 101 | 22 | 62% | 3.6 | 19.8% | 6.7% | 13.1% | 1.4% | 3.02 | 3.05 | +10.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 35 | 200 | 831 | 165 | 55 | 12 | 62% | 3.6 | 19.8% | 6.7% | 13.1% | 1.4% | 3.02 | 3.05 | +5.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Andrew Morris (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.97 | 20.1% | 7.1% | 2.3% | — | 3.65 | 22.6% | 15.4% | 222 | -0.32 | — | — | — |
| Michael Baird R 2026 · 2.90 FIP | 24 | SP- | 2.90 | 21.2% | 8.3% | 1.0% | .273 | 6.19 | 21.6% | 13.1% | 94 | +3.29 | 2.90 | 132 | 75 |
| Shane Smith R 2026 · 2.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 2.87 | 24.3% | 8.1% | 1.5% | .278 | 3.69 | 23.8% | 14.2% | 164 | +0.82 | 2.87 | 309 | 74 |
| Tylor Megill R 2026 · 3.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.01 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 0.9% | .331 | 3.91 | 26.8% | 19.7% | 177 | +0.90 | 3.01 | 603 | 73 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 73 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 73 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .331 | 5.46 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.57 | 3.89 | 141 | 72 |
| Brett Gillis R 2027 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.37 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .278 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 73 | +1.73 | 3.37 | 119 | 72 |
| Alex Colomé R 2028 · 3.37 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.37 | 19.3% | 5.9% | 2.1% | .309 | 2.98 | 25.5% | 19.3% | 191 | -0.39 | 2.72 | 530 | 71 |
| Bryan Mitchell R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.68 | 18.0% | 11.7% | 1.1% | .304 | 4.56 | 14.9% | 5.5% | 223 | +0.88 | 2.70 | 481 | 71 |
| Kolton Mahoney R 2027 · 3.44 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.44 | 17.1% | 4.4% | 2.2% | .312 | 3.72 | 16.9% | 9.5% | 198 | +0.28 | 3.44 | 302 | 70 |
| Sean Harney R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.51 | 18.2% | 9.8% | 1.3% | .285 | 4.69 | 16.5% | 5.1% | 59 | +1.18 | 3.51 | 123 | 70 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 70 |
| T.J. Weir R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.08 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .319 | 3.46 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 190 | -0.62 | 3.21 | 349 | 70 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.01 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.30 | 3.01 | 176 | 70 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2028 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 70 |
| Kyle Nicolas R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.53 | 24.0% | 12.5% | 3.4% | .325 | 3.99 | 22.7% | 6.9% | 186 | -0.54 | 3.33 | 475 | 70 |
| Alex Valverde R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.72 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 2.6% | .321 | 6.00 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 166 | +2.28 | 3.72 | 423 | 69 |
| Trevor May R 2027 · 3.04 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.04 | 22.4% | 4.9% | 2.2% | .334 | 3.69 | 28.8% | 19.5% | 95 | +0.65 | 3.04 | 432 | 69 |
| Chase Centala R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.16 | 17.4% | 6.6% | 3.1% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 124 | 69 |
| Joel Payamps R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.41 | 21.1% | 5.9% | 2.5% | .298 | 3.85 | 18.5% | 12.5% | 141 | +0.44 | 3.13 | 800 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 71 | 22.1% | 7.4% | 0.90 | 3.80 |
| Alex Colomé ('22) | 8 | 62 | 21.5% | 7.9% | 0.83 | 3.41 |
| Aaron Loup ('23) | 7 | 47 | 22.9% | 7.8% | 0.77 | 3.72 |
| Anthony Bass ('23) | 6 | 48 | 21.9% | 8.4% | 1.00 | 3.42 |
| Kelvin Herrera ('19) | 5 | 59 | 23.8% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 3.58 |
| Joe Smith ('22) | 7 | 44 | 22.5% | 6.4% | 1.08 | 3.67 |
| Joakim Soria ('21) | 7 | 54 | 26.1% | 7.8% | 0.92 | 3.65 |