Andrew Morris — OGILVIE

Andrew Morris P St. Paul Saints

+1.6 WAR

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 195 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.9 · 2028

ERA4.03

FIP4.03

xFIP5.55

SIERA4.90

K%20.5%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%12.8%

IP105

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.9peak

2028

K†5050

CH (8%)

CT (14%)

SL (21%)

SI (13%)

CU (5%)

FB-2.1 (51%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	20	ROK	FCL Twins	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
2023	21	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	18	17	84	357	79	19	4	16.6%	6.2%	1.4%	2.88	3.23	+1.8
2024	22	AAA	St. Paul Saints	26	24	133	542	133	32	6	19.9%	6.5%	1.3%	2.37	2.93	+3.6
2025	23	AAA	St. Paul Saints	21	19	95	398	89	28	11	19.7%	7.4%	2.1%	4.09	3.53	+1.9
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	MLB	Minnesota Twins	3	2	10	43	7	2	0	—	—	—	1.74	—	—
ROS	24	MLB	MIN	19	19	102	431	88	33	10	20.5%	7.7%	2.4%	4.03	4.03	+1.5
2026 Total	24	MLB	MIN	—	—	112	474	95	35	10	20.1%	7.4%	2.2%	3.82	3.66	+2.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	25	MLB	MIN	22	22	118	500	105	38	12	21.1%	7.5%	2.4%	4.01	3.99	+1.8
2028	26	MLB	MIN	23	23	125	529	113	40	13	21.4%	7.5%	2.5%	4.00	3.98	+1.9
2029	27	MLB	MIN	23	23	128	543	116	41	14	21.4%	7.5%	2.5%	4.01	4.00	+1.9
2030	28	MLB	MIN	23	23	129	543	116	41	14	21.4%	7.6%	2.5%	4.03	4.04	+1.8
2031	29	MLB	MIN	23	23	126	531	113	41	14	21.2%	7.7%	2.6%	4.06	4.08	+1.7
2032	30	MLB	MIN	22	22	122	515	108	40	14	21.1%	7.8%	2.7%	4.11	4.14	+1.6
2033	31	MLB	MIN	21	21	118	497	103	39	14	20.8%	7.9%	2.7%	4.17	4.22	+1.4
2034	32	MLB	MIN	21	21	113	477	98	38	13	20.5%	8.1%	2.8%	4.25	4.31	+1.3
2035	33	MLB	MIN	20	20	108	455	92	37	13	20.2%	8.2%	2.9%	4.34	4.40	+1.1
2036	34	MLB	MIN	19	19	102	432	86	36	13	19.9%	8.4%	3.0%	4.44	4.51	+0.9
2037	35	MLB	MIN	18	18	96	407	79	35	13	19.5%	8.7%	3.1%	4.56	4.63	+0.7
2038	36	MLB	MIN	16	16	90	381	73	34	12	19.1%	8.9%	3.2%	4.69	4.77	+0.5
2039	37	MLB	MIN	15	15	84	353	66	32	12	18.6%	9.2%	3.4%	4.82	4.91	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			69	62	323	1343	254	89	20	18.9%	6.6%	1.5%	2.98	3.16	+7.8
/ 200 IP	—			43	38	200	831	157	55	12	18.9%	6.6%	1.5%	2.98	3.16	+4.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Morris (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.03	20.5%	7.7%	2.4%	—	3.99	21.3%	13.8%	372	-0.04	—	—	—
Kevin Gausman R 2026 · 3.88 FIP	24	SP-	3.88	22.0%	6.5%	3.3%	.282	4.13	21.3%	14.3%	550	+0.25	2.09	1,786	88
Raisel Iglesias R 2027 · 3.57 FIP	25	SP-	3.57	23.7%	7.1%	2.9%	.271	3.07	27.7%	19.6%	226	-0.50	1.32	765	85
Richard Rodríguez R 2027 · 3.51 FIP	25	SP-	3.51	18.7%	5.6%	2.3%	.226	2.91	25.6%	19.3%	222	-0.60	2.19	545	85
Alex FaGalde R 2026 · 3.79 FIP	24	SP-	3.79	19.1%	6.7%	2.7%	.266	4.98	16.1%	6.4%	162	+1.19	3.79	279	83
Félix Peña R 2027 · 3.72 FIP	25	SP-	3.72	21.0%	9.8%	2.1%	.296	3.80	24.0%	15.6%	263	+0.08	2.67	615	82
Jack Cushing R 2026 · 3.68 FIP	24	SP-	3.68	18.2%	6.7%	2.3%	.326	4.69	18.2%	11.3%	332	+1.01	3.68	523	82
Matt Waldron R 2026 · 3.89 FIP	24	SP-	3.89	18.1%	8.9%	2.2%	.321	4.34	19.3%	12.3%	414	+0.45	3.82	600	82
Ryan Tapani R 2027 · 3.85 FIP	25	SP-	3.85	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.58	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.73	3.85	141	82
Brian Edgington R 2027 · 3.97 FIP	25	SP-	3.97	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.23	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.26	3.97	171	82
Brett Sears R 2027 · 3.63 FIP	25	SP-	3.63	21.1%	7.1%	2.6%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	111	82
Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP	24	SP-	3.89	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.44	18.2%	7.0%	78	+0.55	3.89	183	82
Garrett Edwards R 2025 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	18.5%	7.3%	2.5%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.86	107	81
Braydon Tucker R 2027 · 3.24 FIP	25	SP-	3.24	18.3%	7.1%	1.4%	.291	3.82	13.8%	5.0%	105	+0.58	3.24	211	81
Mitchell Kilkenny R 2026 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	17.6%	5.5%	2.4%	.290	5.79	13.4%	5.1%	124	+2.15	3.18	237	81
Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	19.1%	7.0%	3.3%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	194	81
Bryan Hoeing R 2026 · 4.13 FIP	24	SP-	4.13	14.2%	5.3%	2.8%	.301	4.41	16.6%	9.5%	287	+0.28	3.10	424	81
Ian Gardeck R 2026 · 2.93 FIP	24	SP-	2.93	22.4%	7.7%	1.4%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.93	105	81
Luke Farrell R 2026 · 3.65 FIP	24	SP-	3.65	16.4%	7.5%	1.8%	.298	4.50	20.7%	9.8%	306	+0.85	3.65	584	80
Tyler Stuart R 2026 · 3.55 FIP	24	SP-	3.55	21.2%	7.7%	2.3%	.319	6.02	15.6%	0.6%	19	+2.47	3.55	252	80
Gabe Mosser R 2025 · 3.77 FIP	23	SP-	3.77	17.7%	6.3%	2.5%	.346	4.58	14.9%	6.9%	104	+0.81	3.35	541	80

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2027

DEF 10%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$15M	+$14M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.9	$16M	+$15M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.9	$17M	+$16M
2030	Arb-2	$4M	+1.8	$16M	+$12M
2031	Arb-3	$6M	+1.7	$16M	+$10M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+1.6	$15M	+$7M
Totals		$20M		$95M	+$75M