Andrew Morris — OGILVIE

Andrew Morris P Minnesota Twins

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 195 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.3 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION75 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9485vR 77

ERA3.51

FIP3.51

K%20.2%

BB%6.5%

K-BB%13.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$27M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL6055

CMD5050

K†4550

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.3

Whiff%

p3022.5%

p4120.9%

xwOBA vs

p860.277

CH (11%)

CT (21%)

SL (9%)

SI (12%)

CU (1%)

FB-2.1 (58%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.5M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$9M	+$8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$9M	+$8M
2029	Arb-1	$4M	+1.2	$8M	+$5M
2030	Arb-2	$6M	+1.0	$6M	+$2M
2031	Arb-3	$6M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$11M		$34M	+$24M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	17	84	357	79	19	4	94%	4.7	16.6%	6.2%	10.4%	1.4%	2.88	3.23	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	17	84	357	79	19	4	94%	4.7	16.6%	6.2%	10.4%	1.4%	2.88	3.23	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	17	84	357	79	19	4	94%	4.7	22.1%	5.3%	16.8%	1.1%	2.88	2.52	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	24	133	542	133	32	6	92%	5.1	19.7%	6.2%	13.5%	1.2%	2.37	2.90	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	24	133	542	133	32	6	92%	5.1	19.7%	6.2%	13.5%	1.2%	2.37	2.90	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	24	133	542	133	32	6	92%	5.1	24.5%	5.9%	18.6%	1.1%	2.37	2.41	—
2025	23	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	21	19	95	398	89	28	11	90%	4.5	18.6%	6.3%	12.2%	2.4%	4.09	3.67	—
2025	23	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	21	19	95	398	89	28	11	90%	4.5	18.6%	6.3%	12.2%	2.4%	4.09	3.67	—
2025	23	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	21	19	95	398	89	28	11	90%	4.5	22.4%	7.0%	15.3%	2.8%	4.09	3.62	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			57	3	67	292	61	20	4	5%	1.2	20.9%	6.8%	14.0%	1.4%	4.01	2.95	+1.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	59	5	75	320	66	22	4	8%	1.3	20.9%	6.8%	14.0%	1.4%	3.74	2.95	+1.4
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	59	5	75	320	66	22	4	8%	1.3	20.9%	6.8%	14.0%	1.4%	3.74	2.95	+1.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AAA RAW	MIN	2	2	7	28	5	2	0	100%	3.6	17.9%	7.1%	10.7%	0.0%	1.23	2.50	—
2026	24	MLB RAW	MIN	57	3	67	292	61	20	4	5%	1.2	20.9%	6.8%	14.0%	1.4%	4.01	2.96	+1.3
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	MIN	57	3	67	292	61	20	4	5%	1.2	20.9%	6.8%	14.0%	1.4%	4.01	2.96	+1.3
ROS	24	MLB MLE	MIN	6	0	6	27	5	2	1	0%	1.1	20.2%	6.5%	13.6%	2.4%	3.51	3.51	+0.1
ROS	24	MLB CTX	MIN	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	20.2%	6.5%	13.6%	2.4%	3.52	3.52	+0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	MIN	—	—	81	347	71	24	5	—	—	20.6%	6.8%	13.7%	1.3%	3.72	3.00	+1.8
FULL	24	MLB A+C	MIN	—	—	74	311	71	24	5	—	—	23.0%	7.6%	15.3%	1.5%	4.09	2.95	+1.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	MIN	127	0	133	562	116	37	12	0%	1.0	20.7%	6.5%	14.2%	2.2%	3.77	3.74	+1.3
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIN	134	0	140	592	124	39	13	0%	1.0	21.0%	6.6%	14.4%	2.2%	3.78	3.76	+1.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIN	135	0	142	600	126	40	14	0%	1.1	21.0%	6.7%	14.3%	2.3%	3.81	3.82	+1.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIN	135	0	142	600	126	41	15	0%	1.1	20.9%	6.9%	14.1%	2.4%	3.88	3.91	+1.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIN	129	0	136	573	119	41	15	0%	1.1	20.7%	7.1%	13.6%	2.6%	3.98	4.04	+0.8
2032	30	MLB MLE	MIN	122	0	128	539	110	40	15	0%	1.0	20.3%	7.4%	12.9%	2.8%	4.13	4.22	+0.5
2027	25	MLB CTX	MIN	121	0	127	536	111	35	12	0%	1.0	20.7%	6.5%	14.2%	2.2%	3.78	3.75	+1.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIN	127	0	133	562	118	37	13	0%	1.0	21.0%	6.6%	14.4%	2.2%	3.79	3.77	+1.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIN	129	0	135	570	120	38	13	0%	1.0	21.0%	6.7%	14.3%	2.3%	3.82	3.83	+1.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIN	129	0	135	570	119	39	14	0%	1.0	20.9%	6.9%	14.1%	2.4%	3.89	3.92	+1.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIN	123	0	129	545	113	39	14	0%	1.0	20.7%	7.1%	13.6%	2.6%	3.99	4.05	+0.8
2032	30	MLB CTX	MIN	115	0	121	511	104	38	14	0%	1.1	20.3%	7.4%	12.9%	2.8%	4.14	4.23	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		806	3	853	3611	751	248	84	0%	1.1	20.8%	6.9%	13.9%	2.3%	3.90	3.49	+10.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		189	1	200	846	176	58	20	0%	1.1	20.8%	6.9%	13.9%	2.3%	3.90	3.49	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		125	65	388	1620	308	103	26	52%	3.1	19.0%	6.3%	12.6%	1.6%	3.16	3.17	+11.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	34	200	836	159	53	13	52%	3.1	19.0%	6.3%	12.6%	1.6%	3.16	3.17	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Morris (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.02	19.2%	6.3%	2.5%	—	3.77	20.9%	14.3%	416	-0.25	—	—	—
Duncan Davitt R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	20.4%	8.7%	3.8%	.296	4.23	19.6%	11.9%	358	-0.32	4.09	438	78
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	76
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.40	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.40	3.65	299	75
T.J. Weir R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	24	SW	3.97	20.0%	9.1%	2.5%	.319	3.43	19.0%	9.6%	190	-0.54	3.15	349	74
Alex Colomé R 2015 · 3.33 FIP	26	SW	3.33	19.3%	5.9%	2.0%	.309	2.95	25.5%	19.3%	191	-0.38	2.72	530	73
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	73
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	73
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	73
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	72
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	72
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	72
Bryan Mitchell R 2015 · 3.66 FIP	24	SW	3.66	18.0%	11.7%	1.1%	.304	4.38	14.9%	5.5%	223	+0.72	2.72	481	72
Michael Baird R 2019 · 2.84 FIP	24	SP-	2.84	21.2%	8.3%	0.9%	.273	6.16	21.6%	13.1%	94	+3.32	2.84	132	71
Tylor Megill R 2019 · 3.02 FIP	24	SW	3.02	22.2%	10.4%	0.9%	.331	3.91	26.8%	19.7%	177	+0.89	3.02	603	71
Corey Baker R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	25	SW	3.77	17.4%	10.2%	1.5%	.295	4.97	15.5%	7.3%	170	+1.20	3.06	267	71
Alex Valverde R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	24	SW	3.62	23.2%	9.3%	2.4%	.321	5.66	17.9%	6.8%	166	+2.04	3.62	423	70
Austin Brice R 2016 · 3.42 FIP	24	SW	3.42	17.6%	8.1%	1.4%	.261	4.05	21.1%	14.6%	159	+0.63	3.42	542	70
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	70
Carlo Reyes R 2022 · 4.06 FIP	24	SW	4.06	20.4%	8.6%	2.9%	.318	3.92	24.1%	12.9%	61	-0.14	2.60	229	70
Tyler Mapes R 2015 · 3.14 FIP	24	SW	3.14	14.6%	5.2%	1.1%	.320	3.56	11.9%	5.4%	265	+0.42	3.13	489	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.5	128	20.7%	6.8%	0.93	3.90
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Julio Urías ('23)	3.6	102	24.2%	6.6%	1.06	3.13