Ryan Helsley
P
Baltimore Orioles
Age 32
RHP
6'2" / 235 lbs
MLB
peak 0.6 · 2026
ILInjured 15-Day (D15)
2026 ROS PROJECTION17 act + 35 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9485vR 76
ERA3.30
FIP3.25
K%30.0%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%21.0%
ROS IP35
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9098.7
Whiff%
p9037.9%
K%
p9030.9%
xwOBA vs
p900.265
FB+1.3 (45%)
CU (4%)
CT-0.5 (39%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | Johnson City Cardinals | 11 | 9 | 40 | 171 | 35 | 19 | 1 | 82% | 3.7 | 13.9% | 13.9% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 2.01 | 4.13 | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | Johnson City Cardinals | 11 | 9 | 40 | 171 | 35 | 19 | 1 | 82% | 3.7 | 20.5% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 0.6% | 2.01 | 3.10 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A | Peoria Chiefs | 17 | 17 | 95 | 378 | 109 | 19 | 3 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.3% | 5.9% | 15.4% | 0.9% | 1.61 | 2.55 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A | Peoria Chiefs | 17 | 17 | 95 | 378 | 109 | 19 | 3 | 100% | 5.6 | 28.8% | 5.0% | 23.8% | 0.8% | 1.61 | 1.82 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 23 | 132 | 538 | 137 | 48 | 7 | 96% | 5.5 | 20.1% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 1.7% | 2.72 | 3.59 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 23 | 132 | 538 | 137 | 48 | 7 | 96% | 5.5 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 16.5% | 1.3% | 2.72 | 2.81 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 13 | 13 | 70 | 292 | 82 | 32 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.4% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 2.5% | 3.97 | 3.89 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 13 | 13 | 70 | 292 | 82 | 32 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 28.1% | 11.0% | 17.1% | 2.4% | 3.97 | 3.43 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 7 | 74 | 308 | 73 | 30 | 8 | 17% | 1.8 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 2.7% | 3.77 | 4.01 | +0.7 |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 7 | 74 | 308 | 73 | 30 | 8 | 17% | 1.8 | 23.7% | 9.7% | 14.0% | 2.6% | 3.77 | 3.75 | +1.0 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 12 | 0 | 12 | 52 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 13.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.25 | 6.36 | -0.3 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 12 | 0 | 12 | 52 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 13.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.25 | 6.43 | -0.3 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 51 | 0 | 47 | 206 | 47 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.8% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 2.0% | 4.56 | 3.78 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 51 | 0 | 47 | 206 | 47 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.8% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 1.9% | 4.56 | 3.80 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 54 | 0 | 65 | 239 | 94 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 39.3% | 7.9% | 31.4% | 2.5% | 1.25 | 2.17 | +1.9 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 54 | 0 | 65 | 239 | 94 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 39.3% | 7.9% | 31.4% | 2.5% | 1.25 | 2.28 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 38 | 0 | 41 | 169 | 56 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 35.6% | 11.0% | 24.7% | 0.7% | 3.07 | 1.86 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 38 | 0 | 41 | 169 | 56 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 33.1% | 10.7% | 22.5% | 1.2% | 3.07 | 2.32 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 65 | 0 | 66 | 266 | 79 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.7% | 7.5% | 22.2% | 1.1% | 2.04 | 2.17 | +2.0 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 65 | 0 | 66 | 266 | 79 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.7% | 7.5% | 22.2% | 1.1% | 2.04 | 2.21 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | New York Mets | 58 | 0 | 56 | 252 | 63 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 8.7% | 16.3% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 3.85 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | New York Mets | 58 | 0 | 56 | 252 | 63 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 8.7% | 16.3% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 3.89 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 19 | 0 | 17 | 75 | 26 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 30.9% | 11.8% | 19.1% | 4.4% | 3.63 | 4.40 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | BAL | 34 | 0 | 35 | 149 | 45 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.0% | 9.0% | 21.0% | 2.8% | 3.30 | 3.25 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | BAL | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 44 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.0% | 9.0% | 21.0% | 2.8% | 3.30 | 3.25 | +0.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 32 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 53 | 224 | 71 | 21 | 7 | — | — | 31.5% | 9.5% | 22.0% | 3.2% | 3.41 | 3.63 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 32 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 51 | 214 | 71 | 21 | 7 | — | — | 33.1% | 10.0% | 23.0% | 3.4% | 3.54 | 3.42 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 48 | 0 | 51 | 214 | 62 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.0% | 9.5% | 19.6% | 3.1% | 3.83 | 3.92 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 55 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.1% | 10.0% | 18.2% | 3.4% | 4.07 | 4.23 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 39 | 0 | 41 | 174 | 47 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.2% | 10.5% | 16.7% | 3.7% | 4.37 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 59 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.0% | 9.5% | 19.6% | 3.1% | 3.83 | 3.92 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 50 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.1% | 10.0% | 18.2% | 3.4% | 4.07 | 4.23 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 41 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.2% | 10.5% | 16.7% | 3.7% | 4.37 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 467 | 0 | 495 | 2060 | 592 | 193 | 55 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.7% | 9.4% | 19.4% | 2.7% | 3.30 | 3.33 | +12.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 188 | 0 | 200 | 831 | 239 | 78 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.7% | 9.4% | 19.4% | 2.7% | 3.30 | 3.33 | +4.9 | ||
| Career | — | 403 | 69 | 717 | 2946 | 725 | 284 | 58 | 17% | 1.8 | 24.6% | 9.6% | 15.0% | 2.0% | 2.91 | 3.32 | +17.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 112 | 19 | 200 | 822 | 202 | 79 | 16 | 17% | 1.8 | 24.6% | 9.6% | 15.0% | 2.0% | 2.91 | 3.32 | +4.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Helsley (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.47 | 29.7% | 8.5% | 2.6% | — | 4.22 | 28.2% | 18.2% | 138 | +0.75 | — | — | — |
| Blake Wood R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 69 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 68 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 3.03 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.03 | 26.0% | 10.0% | 1.6% | .263 | 3.35 | 25.3% | 16.4% | 101 | +0.32 | 2.48 | 277 | 65 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .247 | 3.30 | 23.0% | 13.8% | 141 | -0.59 | 2.82 | 284 | 65 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 65 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 65 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 3.13 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.13 | 29.9% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .235 | 4.87 | 20.2% | 8.1% | 85 | +1.74 | 2.00 | 320 | 64 |
| Daniel Bard R 2029 · 2.70 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.70 | 25.5% | 7.5% | 1.5% | .290 | 3.50 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 175 | +0.80 | 2.48 | 200 | 64 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.20 | 24.5% | 7.4% | 4.1% | .291 | 5.21 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 36 | +1.01 | 3.05 | 176 | 64 |
| Huascar Brazobán R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.74 | 28.5% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .275 | 3.48 | 23.3% | 12.9% | 187 | -0.26 | 3.08 | 349 | 64 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 64 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 63 |
| C.C. Lee R 2025 · 3.00 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.00 | 34.7% | 9.1% | 3.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 121 | 62 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.60 | 27.7% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .298 | 3.52 | 27.3% | 20.0% | 58 | -0.08 | 3.52 | 316 | 62 |
| Ryan Madson R 2028 · 2.97 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.97 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 2.2% | .244 | 2.98 | 23.9% | 18.7% | 176 | +0.01 | 1.42 | 240 | 62 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.66 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.24 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.58 | 3.57 | 137 | 62 |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 2.37 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.37 | 28.4% | 5.1% | 1.9% | .302 | 5.17 | 19.2% | 9.9% | 98 | +2.80 | 2.37 | 153 | 62 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 2.94 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.94 | 27.3% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .324 | 3.29 | 23.4% | 17.1% | 134 | +0.35 | 2.27 | 426 | 61 |
| Jon Edwards R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 60 |
| John Axford R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.10 | 24.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .333 | 3.98 | 21.5% | 11.1% | 141 | +0.88 | 3.10 | 197 | 60 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 47 | 28.6% | 9.5% | 1.23 | 3.92 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| Cody Allen ('19) | 5 | 59 | 31.3% | 10.2% | 1.19 | 3.51 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Diego Castillo ('22) | 5 | 52 | 28.1% | 8.9% | 1.07 | 3.12 |
| Joe Jiménez ('24) | 7 | 53 | 29.8% | 8.6% | 1.11 | 4.06 |