Ryan Helsley — OGILVIE

Ryan Helsley P Baltimore Orioles

+0.5 WAR

INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)

Age 32 RHP 6'2" / 235 lbs MLB Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 0.9 · 2027

ERA3.48

FIP3.76

xFIP2.78

SIERA3.15

K%26.4%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%17.7%

IP52

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.9peak

2027

K†7070

FB Velo

p9099.3

Whiff%

p7729.5%

p6525.0%

xwOBA vs

p520.310

FB+1.3 (51%)

CU (3%)

CT-0.5 (35%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	21	ROK	Johnson City Cardinals	11	9	40	171	35	19	1	13.9%	13.9%	0.8%	2.01	4.13	+0.4
2016	22	A	Peoria Chiefs	17	17	95	378	109	19	3	21.3%	5.9%	0.9%	1.61	2.57	+2.9
2017	23	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	24	23	132	538	137	48	7	20.1%	9.9%	1.6%	2.72	3.54	+2.6
2018	24	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	13	13	70	292	82	32	7	23.4%	11.2%	2.7%	3.97	4.04	+0.8
2019	25	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	41	7	74	308	73	30	8	22.1%	10.1%	2.9%	3.77	4.12	+0.8
2020	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	12	0	12	52	10	7	3	19.2%	13.5%	5.8%	5.25	6.38	-0.2
2021	27	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	51	0	47	206	47	25	4	22.8%	12.1%	2.1%	4.56	3.87	+0.6
2022	28	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	54	0	65	239	94	19	6	39.3%	7.9%	2.4%	1.25	2.09	+2.1
2023	29	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	38	0	41	169	56	18	2	35.6%	11.0%	0.7%	3.07	1.86	+1.4
2024	30	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	65	0	66	266	79	20	3	29.7%	7.5%	1.1%	2.04	2.17	+2.1
2025	31	MLB	New York Mets	58	0	56	252	63	22	8	25.0%	8.7%	3.1%	4.50	3.78	+0.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	32	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	8	0	7	33	11	3	0	—	—	—	2.45	—	—
ROS	32	MLB	BAL	19	—	19	79	24	7	2	30.4%	8.6%	2.6%	3.37	3.42	+0.3
2026 Total	32	MLB	BAL	—	—	26	112	35	10	2	31.2%	8.8%	1.8%	3.11	2.46	+0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	33	MLB	BAL	50	—	50	211	64	19	5	30.1%	8.8%	2.5%	3.36	3.43	+0.9
2028	34	MLB	BAL	47	—	47	200	59	18	5	29.4%	9.0%	2.6%	3.48	3.57	+0.7
2029	35	MLB	BAL	45	—	45	189	54	17	5	28.7%	9.3%	2.7%	3.62	3.72	+0.6
2030	36	MLB	BAL	42	—	42	176	49	17	5	27.9%	9.5%	2.8%	3.78	3.88	+0.5
2031	37	MLB	BAL	39	—	39	164	44	16	5	27.1%	9.8%	3.0%	3.95	4.06	+0.4
2032	38	MLB	BAL	36	—	36	151	40	15	5	26.3%	10.1%	3.1%	4.13	4.24	+0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			392	69	707	2904	713	278	56	24.6%	9.6%	1.9%	2.89	3.29	+16.1
/ 200 IP	—			111	20	200	822	202	79	16	24.6%	9.6%	1.9%	2.89	3.29	+4.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Helsley (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.42	30.4%	8.6%	2.6%	—	3.57	29.5%	20.4%	142	+0.15	—	—	—
Blake Wood R 2025 · 3.35 FIP	31	SW	3.35	25.3%	9.3%	2.2%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.91	210	72
Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.88 FIP	32	SW	3.88	22.3%	9.2%	2.7%	.247	3.28	23.0%	13.8%	141	-0.60	2.80	284	71
Daniel Bard R 2029 · 2.86 FIP	35	SU	2.86	25.5%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	3.60	25.3%	12.0%	175	+0.74	2.45	200	69
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2027 · 4.47 FIP	33	SW	4.47	26.2%	11.2%	3.9%	.263	3.98	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.49	3.98	104	69
Pedro Strop R 2026 · 3.02 FIP	32	SW	3.02	26.0%	10.0%	1.5%	.263	3.46	25.3%	16.4%	101	+0.44	2.58	277	69
Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.65 FIP	32	SW	3.65	22.0%	7.3%	2.7%	.256	4.36	20.5%	9.0%	16	+0.71	3.65	137	68
Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 3.33 FIP	32	SW	3.33	23.7%	7.2%	2.4%	.342	4.98	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.65	3.33	122	68
Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.50 FIP	35	SW	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.6%	.290	3.90	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.40	3.50	219	68
Ryan Cook R 2025 · 3.85 FIP	31	SW	3.85	25.1%	10.8%	2.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	102	67
Chad Gaudin R 2027 · 2.66 FIP	33	SU	2.66	22.8%	6.8%	1.1%	.325	3.16	21.8%	13.9%	58	+0.50	2.02	102	67
Ryan Madson R 2028 · 2.94 FIP	34	SW	2.94	23.4%	5.2%	2.1%	.244	2.97	23.9%	18.7%	176	+0.03	1.43	240	66
Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 3.99 FIP	32	SW	3.99	24.5%	7.4%	3.7%	.291	5.41	18.0%	8.4%	36	+1.42	2.93	176	66
Josh Fields R 2026 · 3.46 FIP	32	SU	3.46	21.4%	6.5%	2.5%	.224	7.56	18.9%	9.5%	25	+4.10	1.85	238	66
John Axford R 2026 · 3.28 FIP	32	SW	3.28	24.8%	11.2%	1.6%	.333	3.94	21.5%	11.1%	141	+0.66	3.28	197	65
Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.26 FIP	33	SU	4.26	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.44	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.82	1.94	112	65
Mark Serrano R 2025 · 3.63 FIP	31	SU	3.63	21.9%	6.4%	2.9%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.62	3.10	120	64
Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 3.52 FIP	32	SU	3.52	21.4%	8.1%	2.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	115	64
Jon Edwards R 2025 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	132	64
Wade Davis R 2026 · 3.42 FIP	32	SW	3.42	29.9%	10.0%	2.9%	.235	4.92	20.2%	8.1%	85	+1.50	2.00	320	64
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.63 FIP	32	SU	3.63	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.11	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.48	3.45	170	64

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 6.610 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$14M	+0.5	$2M	-$12M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$14M	+0.9	$4M	-$10M
Totals		$28M		$6M	-$22M

Options · projected decision
2028	PLAYER OPT	$14.0M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE