Ryan Helsley — OGILVIE

Ryan Helsley P Baltimore Orioles

Age 32 RHP 6'2" / 235 lbs MLB peak 0.6 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION18 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9385vR 77

ERA3.22

FIP3.17

K%30.0%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%21.0%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.7

Whiff%

p9037.9%

p9030.9%

xwOBA vs

p900.265

FB+1.3 (45%)

CU (4%)

CT-0.5 (39%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	21	ROK MLE	Johnson City Cardinals	11	9	40	171	35	19	1	82%	3.7	13.9%	13.9%	0.0%	0.8%	2.01	4.13	—
2015	21	ROK RAW	Johnson City Cardinals	11	9	40	171	35	19	1	82%	3.7	20.5%	11.1%	9.4%	0.6%	2.01	3.10	—
2016	22	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	17	17	95	378	109	19	3	100%	5.6	21.3%	5.9%	15.4%	1.0%	1.61	2.58	—
2016	22	A RAW	Peoria Chiefs	17	17	95	378	109	19	3	100%	5.6	28.8%	5.0%	23.8%	0.8%	1.61	1.82	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	23	132	538	137	48	7	96%	5.5	20.1%	9.9%	10.2%	1.6%	2.72	3.53	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	23	132	538	137	48	7	96%	5.5	25.5%	8.9%	16.5%	1.3%	2.72	2.81	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	70	292	82	32	7	100%	5.4	23.4%	11.2%	12.2%	2.6%	3.97	3.99	—
2018	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	13	70	292	82	32	7	100%	5.4	28.1%	11.0%	17.1%	2.4%	3.97	3.43	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	7	74	308	73	30	8	17%	1.8	22.1%	10.1%	12.0%	2.8%	3.77	4.07	+0.4
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	7	74	308	73	30	8	17%	1.8	23.7%	9.7%	14.0%	2.6%	3.77	3.75	+0.7
2020	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	12	0	12	52	10	7	3	0%	1.0	19.2%	13.5%	5.8%	6.2%	5.25	6.59	-0.3
2020	26	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	12	0	12	52	10	7	3	0%	1.0	19.2%	13.5%	5.8%	5.8%	5.25	6.43	-0.3
2021	27	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	51	0	47	206	47	25	4	0%	0.9	22.8%	12.1%	10.7%	2.1%	4.56	3.86	+0.4
2021	27	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	51	0	47	206	47	25	4	0%	0.9	22.8%	12.1%	10.7%	1.9%	4.56	3.80	+0.4
2022	28	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	54	0	65	239	94	19	6	0%	1.2	39.3%	7.9%	31.4%	2.7%	1.25	2.27	+1.8
2022	28	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	54	0	65	239	94	19	6	0%	1.2	39.3%	7.9%	31.4%	2.5%	1.25	2.28	+1.8
2023	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	0	41	169	56	18	2	0%	1.1	35.6%	11.0%	24.7%	0.7%	3.07	1.88	+1.3
2023	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	0	41	169	56	18	2	0%	1.1	35.6%	11.0%	24.7%	0.7%	3.07	1.88	+1.3
2023	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	38	0	41	169	56	18	2	0%	1.1	33.1%	10.7%	22.5%	1.2%	3.07	2.32	+1.1
2024	30	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	65	0	66	266	79	20	3	0%	1.0	29.7%	7.5%	22.2%	1.2%	2.04	2.21	+1.9
2024	30	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	65	0	66	266	79	20	3	0%	1.0	29.7%	7.5%	22.2%	1.2%	2.04	2.21	+1.9
2024	30	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	65	0	66	266	79	20	3	0%	1.0	29.7%	7.5%	22.2%	1.1%	2.04	2.21	+1.9
2025	31	MLB MLE	New York Mets	58	0	56	252	63	22	8	0%	1.0	25.0%	8.7%	16.3%	3.2%	4.50	3.84	+0.5
2025	31	MLB MLE	New York Mets	58	0	56	252	63	22	8	0%	1.0	25.0%	8.7%	16.3%	3.2%	4.50	3.84	+0.5
2025	31	MLB RAW	New York Mets	58	0	56	252	63	22	8	0%	1.0	25.0%	8.7%	16.3%	3.2%	4.50	3.89	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			314	0	335	1382	398	127	33	0%	1.1	28.8%	9.2%	19.6%	2.4%	3.01	3.14	+5.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	20	0	18	78	27	8	3	0%	0.9	30.9%	11.8%	19.1%	4.2%	3.44	4.30	+0.1
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	20	0	18	78	27	8	3	0%	0.9	30.9%	11.8%	19.1%	4.2%	3.44	4.30	+0.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	32	AAA RAW	BAL	3	0	3	10	6	0	0	0%	1.0	60.0%	0.0%	60.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.97	—
2026	32	MLB RAW	BAL	17	0	15	68	21	8	3	0%	0.9	30.9%	11.8%	19.1%	4.4%	4.11	4.40	+0.0
SO FAR	32	MLB RAW	BAL	17	0	15	68	21	8	3	0%	0.9	30.9%	11.8%	19.1%	4.4%	4.11	4.40	+0.0
ROS	32	MLB MLE	BAL	4	0	4	16	5	1	0	0%	0.9	30.0%	9.0%	21.0%	2.7%	3.22	3.17	+0.1
ROS	32	MLB CTX	BAL	4	0	4	17	5	2	0	0%	1.0	30.0%	9.0%	21.0%	2.7%	3.22	3.17	+0.1
2026 TOT	32	MLB MLE	BAL	—	—	22	94	32	9	3	—	—	33.8%	10.0%	23.8%	3.6%	3.40	4.11	+0.1
FULL	32	MLB A+C	BAL	—	—	19	80	32	9	3	—	—	39.4%	11.7%	27.7%	4.3%	3.94	3.59	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	BAL	48	0	51	214	62	20	7	0%	1.1	29.0%	9.5%	19.6%	3.1%	3.84	3.93	+0.4
2028	34	MLB MLE	BAL	44	0	46	194	55	19	7	0%	1.0	28.1%	10.0%	18.2%	3.4%	4.08	4.23	+0.2
2029	35	MLB MLE	BAL	39	0	41	174	47	18	7	0%	1.1	27.2%	10.5%	16.7%	3.7%	4.37	4.57	-0.0
2027	33	MLB CTX	BAL	46	0	48	203	59	19	6	0%	1.0	29.0%	9.5%	19.6%	3.1%	3.84	3.93	+0.4
2028	34	MLB CTX	BAL	40	0	42	177	50	18	6	0%	1.1	28.1%	10.0%	18.2%	3.4%	4.08	4.23	+0.2
2029	35	MLB CTX	BAL	34	0	36	152	41	16	6	0%	1.1	27.2%	10.5%	16.7%	3.7%	4.37	4.57	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		437	0	464	1926	552	181	51	0%	1.1	28.6%	9.4%	19.3%	2.7%	3.30	3.33	+6.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		188	0	200	830	238	78	22	0%	1.1	28.6%	9.4%	19.3%	2.7%	3.30	3.33	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		404	69	718	2949	726	284	60	17%	1.8	24.6%	9.6%	15.0%	2.0%	2.91	3.35	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		113	19	200	822	202	79	17	17%	1.8	24.6%	9.6%	15.0%	2.0%	2.91	3.35	+2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Helsley (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.48	29.7%	8.5%	2.6%	—	4.22	28.2%	18.2%	138	+0.74	—	—	—
Blake Wood R 2017 · 3.44 FIP	31	SU	3.44	25.3%	9.3%	2.4%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	210	72
Pedro Strop R 2017 · 3.08 FIP	32	SU	3.08	26.0%	10.0%	1.7%	.263	3.43	25.3%	16.4%	101	+0.35	2.56	277	69
Wade Davis R 2018 · 3.33 FIP	32	SU	3.33	29.9%	10.0%	2.7%	.235	5.00	20.2%	8.1%	85	+1.67	2.00	320	69
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	67
Jumbo Diaz R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	32	SU	3.85	22.3%	9.2%	2.7%	.247	3.28	23.0%	13.8%	141	-0.57	2.80	284	67
Chris Hatcher R 2017 · 4.31 FIP	32	SU	4.31	24.5%	7.4%	4.3%	.291	5.32	18.0%	8.4%	36	+1.01	2.92	176	66
Bud Norris R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	32	SU	3.51	27.7%	9.0%	2.9%	.298	3.65	27.3%	20.0%	58	+0.14	3.51	316	66
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	65
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	65
Jonathan Broxton R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	32	SU	3.77	22.0%	7.3%	2.9%	.256	4.34	20.5%	9.0%	16	+0.57	3.67	137	65
Daniel Bard R 2020 · 2.82 FIP	35	SU	2.82	25.5%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	3.63	25.3%	12.0%	175	+0.81	2.56	200	64
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	64
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	64
Ryan Brasier R 2020 · 2.97 FIP	32	SU	2.97	27.3%	9.1%	1.9%	.324	3.30	23.4%	17.1%	134	+0.33	2.31	426	64
Huascar Brazobán R 2022 · 3.77 FIP	32	SU	3.77	28.5%	11.4%	3.0%	.275	3.49	23.2%	12.9%	187	-0.28	3.08	366	64
C.C. Lee R 2018 · 3.03 FIP	31	SU	3.03	34.7%	9.1%	3.1%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	121	62
Ryan Madson R 2015 · 2.99 FIP	34	SU	2.99	23.4%	5.2%	2.2%	.244	2.96	23.9%	18.7%	176	-0.03	1.42	240	62
Mark Lowe R 2015 · 2.37 FIP	32	SU	2.37	28.4%	5.1%	1.9%	.302	5.22	19.2%	9.9%	98	+2.85	2.37	153	62
Daniel Hudson R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	23.4%	8.2%	2.6%	.240	3.24	33.4%	25.7%	97	-0.37	1.68	468	61
Josh Fields R 2018 · 3.48 FIP	32	SU	3.48	21.4%	6.5%	2.5%	.224	7.56	18.9%	9.5%	25	+4.08	1.90	238	61

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	47	28.6%	9.5%	1.23	3.93
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Diego Castillo ('22)	1.3	52	28.1%	8.9%	1.07	3.12
Joe Jiménez ('24)	1.9	53	29.8%	8.6%	1.11	4.06
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22