Ryan Brown — OGILVIE

Ryan Brown P Lansing Lugnuts

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 219 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 48 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.32

FIP4.32

K%21.7%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%13.0%

ROS IP48

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	5	0	8	35	4	1	1	0%	1.6	11.4%	2.9%	8.6%	2.9%	5.62	4.07	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	5	0	8	35	4	1	1	0%	1.6	11.4%	2.9%	8.6%	2.9%	5.62	4.07	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	ACL Athletics	5	0	8	35	4	1	1	0%	1.6	11.4%	2.9%	8.6%	2.9%	5.62	4.10	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	7	73	310	83	24	4	29%	3.1	20.3%	8.6%	11.7%	1.2%	4.91	3.11	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	7	73	310	83	24	4	29%	3.1	20.3%	8.6%	11.7%	1.2%	4.91	3.11	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	7	73	310	83	24	4	29%	3.1	26.8%	7.7%	19.0%	1.3%	4.91	2.53	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	27	0	34	164	20	8	9	0%	1.3	9.4%	5.6%	3.8%	6.9%	6.88	6.78	—
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	27	0	34	164	20	8	9	0%	1.3	9.4%	5.6%	3.8%	6.9%	6.88	6.78	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	OAK	27	0	34	164	20	8	9	0%	1.3	12.2%	4.9%	7.3%	5.5%	6.88	5.70	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	OAK	63	0	66	279	62	24	8	0%	1.0	22.1%	8.8%	13.4%	2.9%	4.31	4.30	+0.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	OAK	62	0	65	274	61	24	8	0%	1.0	22.2%	8.9%	13.3%	2.9%	4.33	4.34	+0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	OAK	60	0	63	266	59	24	8	0%	1.1	22.1%	9.0%	13.1%	3.0%	4.39	4.42	+0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	OAK	27	0	28	118	26	10	3	0%	1.0	22.1%	8.8%	13.4%	2.9%	4.31	4.30	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	OAK	39	0	41	173	38	15	5	0%	1.1	22.2%	8.9%	13.3%	2.9%	4.33	4.34	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	OAK	45	0	47	198	44	18	6	0%	1.0	22.1%	9.0%	13.1%	3.0%	4.39	4.42	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		111	0	117	493	109	44	15	0%	1.1	22.1%	8.9%	13.2%	3.0%	4.35	3.98	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	75	26	0%	1.1	22.1%	8.9%	13.2%	3.0%	4.35	3.98	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		56	7	115	509	82	37	16	12%	2.1	16.2%	7.2%	8.9%	3.1%	5.54	4.36	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		97	12	200	883	143	64	27	12%	2.1	16.2%	7.2%	8.9%	3.1%	5.54	4.36	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Brown (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.32	21.7%	8.8%	2.9%	—	4.35	22.1%	13.3%	194	+0.03	—	—	—
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.31	22.6%	11.3%	22	+0.89	4.42	152	90
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	89
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	88
Alex Phillips R 2019 · 3.26 FIP	24	SU	3.26	22.0%	8.0%	1.8%	.263	4.62	23.2%	14.6%	72	+1.36	3.26	139	87
Nelson Gonzalez R 2015 · 3.42 FIP	25	SU	3.42	19.6%	7.7%	1.8%	.293	4.98	17.7%	7.8%	115	+1.56	3.42	258	87
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	87
J.R. Graham R 2015 · 4.39 FIP	25	SU	4.39	18.7%	7.4%	3.5%	.317	3.63	20.4%	10.1%	61	-0.76	3.31	125	87
Matt Pierpont R 2016 · 3.51 FIP	25	SU	3.51	20.7%	8.6%	1.9%	.295	3.41	21.6%	13.6%	156	-0.10	2.76	280	86
Roman Mendez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	25	SU	4.31	19.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.275	4.52	20.2%	10.4%	118	+0.21	4.12	230	86
Blake Goldsberry R 2022 · 3.43 FIP	25	SU	3.43	23.6%	8.3%	2.3%	.257	5.26	23.6%	12.0%	44	+1.83	3.43	117	86
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	86
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	86
Jackson Hicks R 2023 · 3.90 FIP	25	SU	3.90	22.6%	10.5%	2.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	116	86
Joe Colón J R 2015 · 3.27 FIP	25	SU	3.27	19.4%	7.4%	1.6%	.312	4.07	20.7%	7.8%	65	+0.80	3.27	113	86
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	86
Jordan Milbrath R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	19.9%	10.4%	2.4%	.272	3.61	19.6%	9.7%	129	-0.44	3.19	386	85
Randall Delgado R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	25	SU	3.61	23.7%	10.1%	2.2%	.284	3.78	20.3%	12.4%	167	+0.17	3.09	290	85
Jhan Mariñez R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	26	SU	3.50	23.1%	9.3%	2.1%	.244	3.70	18.9%	11.1%	168	+0.20	3.16	253	85
Miguel Sánchez R 2019 · 3.65 FIP	25	SU	3.65	21.3%	9.0%	2.2%	.305	4.59	19.1%	9.7%	83	+0.94	2.54	309	85
Matt Marsh R 2016 · 3.79 FIP	25	SU	3.79	21.0%	8.2%	2.6%	.273	3.13	18.5%	5.9%	15	-0.66	3.13	143	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	61	22.1%	8.9%	1.13	4.34
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21