Matt Keating

P Somerset Patriots

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 215 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	24	A+NYY	34	1	49	2.57	2.53	27.9%	12.0%	—	K 21.5% · BB 13.8% · FIP 3.38
2026	25	AANYY	37	0	39	5.95	4.12	32.2%	14.4%	—	K 26.1% · BB 15.9% · FIP 5.10
2027PROJ	26	MLBNYY	57	0	60	5.04	5.04	24.5%	15.4%	-0.3
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBNYY	21	0	22	4.99	5.01	24.4%	14.9%	-0.1
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBNYY	32	0	34	5.00	5.04	24.2%	14.6%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control35Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsEsmerling Vasquez (age 26) · Nick Ernst (age 25) · Dennis Sarfate (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.04

FIP5.04

K%24.5%

BB%15.4%

K-BB%9.1%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	1	0	1	4	2	1	0	0%	1.0	50.0%	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.04	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	1	0	1	4	2	1	0	0%	1.0	50.0%	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.10	—
2023	22	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	40	0	65	295	93	37	6	0%	1.6	23.3%	14.8%	8.5%	2.4%	3.58	4.34	—
2023	22	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	40	0	65	295	93	37	6	0%	1.6	31.5%	12.5%	19.0%	2.0%	3.58	3.15	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	40	0	69	281	83	32	10	0%	1.7	22.7%	13.1%	9.6%	4.3%	3.89	5.20	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	40	0	69	281	83	32	10	0%	1.7	22.7%	13.1%	9.6%	4.3%	3.89	5.20	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	40	0	69	281	83	32	10	0%	1.7	29.5%	11.4%	18.1%	3.6%	3.89	3.97	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	34	1	49	208	58	25	1	3%	1.4	21.5%	13.8%	7.6%	0.6%	2.57	3.38	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	34	1	49	208	58	25	1	3%	1.4	21.5%	13.8%	7.6%	0.6%	2.57	3.38	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	34	1	49	208	58	25	1	3%	1.4	27.9%	12.0%	15.9%	0.5%	2.57	2.53	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	37	0	39	180	58	26	6	0%	1.1	26.1%	15.9%	10.2%	4.0%	5.95	5.10	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	37	0	39	180	58	26	6	0%	1.1	26.1%	15.9%	10.2%	4.0%	5.95	5.10	—
2026	25	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	37	0	39	180	58	26	6	0%	1.1	32.2%	14.4%	17.8%	3.3%	5.95	4.12	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	NYY	57	0	60	253	62	39	8	0%	1.1	24.5%	15.4%	9.1%	3.1%	5.04	5.04	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	NYY	56	0	59	247	60	37	8	0%	1.0	24.4%	14.9%	9.5%	3.1%	4.99	5.01	-0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	NYY	54	0	57	240	58	35	8	0%	1.1	24.2%	14.6%	9.6%	3.2%	5.00	5.04	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	NYY	21	0	22	93	23	14	3	0%	1.0	24.4%	14.9%	9.5%	3.1%	4.99	5.01	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	NYY	32	0	34	144	35	21	5	0%	1.1	24.2%	14.6%	9.6%	3.2%	5.00	5.04	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	0	56	236	57	35	7	0%	1.1	24.2%	14.7%	9.5%	3.2%	5.00	4.65	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	204	125	25	0%	1.1	24.2%	14.7%	9.5%	3.2%	5.00	4.65	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		152	1	224	968	226	139	28	1%	1.5	23.4%	14.3%	9.0%	2.9%	3.86	4.52	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		136	1	200	864	202	124	25	1%	1.5	23.4%	14.3%	9.0%	2.9%	3.86	4.52	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Keating (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.04	24.5%	15.4%	3.1%	—	5.02	24.3%	9.5%	115	-0.02	—	—	—
Esmerling Vasquez R 2010 · 4.37 FIP	26	SU	4.37	22.9%	14.6%	2.5%	.278	4.23	12.5%	1.5%	62	-0.14	3.70	204	88
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	88
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	88
Jeff Ames R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	26	SU	3.94	25.1%	13.4%	2.3%	.310	4.65	25.4%	10.8%	79	+0.71	3.85	272	87
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	86
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	85
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	85
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	85
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	85
Carlos Fisher R 2009 · 3.90 FIP	26	SU	3.90	21.2%	12.8%	1.8%	.317	3.80	18.2%	8.1%	46	-0.10	2.48	245	84
Mitchell Stumpo R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	26	SU	4.55	24.0%	16.8%	2.4%	.225	5.67	21.5%	6.6%	78	+1.12	3.97	158	84
Nelson L. Alvarez R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	26	SU	4.12	23.2%	13.1%	2.4%	.282	4.70	18.5%	9.4%	35	+0.58	2.58	233	84
Eduard Santos R 2016 · 3.86 FIP	26	SU	3.86	22.2%	14.4%	1.5%	.248	2.04	31.1%	18.7%	16	-1.82	2.04	138	84
Eduardo Herrera R 2024 · 4.13 FIP	24	SU	4.13	25.5%	15.7%	2.2%	.284	4.44	16.7%	-5.0%	31	+0.31	4.13	127	84
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	83
Christopher Troye R 2024 · 5.46 FIP	25	SU	5.46	24.2%	17.0%	4.1%	.282	5.61	19.1%	-3.8%	30	+0.15	3.42	158	83
Keagan Gillies R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	21.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.306	3.91	20.0%	14.4%	74	-0.11	2.93	177	82
Tyler Baum R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	26	SU	4.91	22.1%	13.2%	3.6%	.309	5.01	20.5%	9.3%	32	+0.10	3.38	177	82
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	82
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	24.3%	15.0%	1.20	5.01
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*