Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 64 | 26 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 18.1% | 6.1% | 0.0% | 2.18 | 3.35 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 64 | 26 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 33.7% | 13.7% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 2.18 | 2.00 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 28 | 0 | 30 | 119 | 45 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.8% | 6.7% | 23.1% | 0.0% | 2.10 | 1.43 | +1.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | NYY | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 63 | 42 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.2% | 16.7% | 8.5% | 2.6% | 4.91 | 4.91 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 25.2% | 16.7% | 8.5% | 2.6% | 4.91 | 4.91 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 90 | 370 | 108 | 49 | 7 | — | — | 29.2% | 13.2% | 16.0% | 1.8% | 3.97 | 3.74 | +1.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 25.2% | 16.7% | 8.5% | 2.6% | 4.91 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 61 | 39 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 16.1% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.90 | 4.94 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 52 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 57 | 37 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.5% | 15.8% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.95 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 49 | 0 | 52 | 219 | 53 | 35 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 15.8% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 5.07 | 5.16 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 22 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 16.1% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.90 | 4.94 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 31 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.5% | 15.8% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.95 | 5.02 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 36 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 15.8% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 5.07 | 5.16 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 83 | 0 | 87 | 366 | 90 | 58 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.5% | 15.9% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.99 | 4.68 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 207 | 134 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.5% | 15.9% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.99 | 4.68 | +1.7 | ||
| Career | — | 68 | 0 | 75 | 309 | 82 | 42 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.4% | 13.7% | 12.7% | 0.0% | 2.15 | 2.61 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 181 | 0 | 200 | 820 | 216 | 113 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.4% | 13.7% | 12.7% | 0.0% | 2.15 | 2.61 | +6.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tony Rossi (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.91 | 25.2% | 16.7% | 2.6% | — | 5.04 | 24.5% | 8.6% | 165 | +0.13 | — | — | — |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 24.9% | 14.5% | 2.7% | .360 | 5.09 | 15.3% | 3.1% | 58 | +0.79 | 3.42 | 173 | 87 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.94 | 26.4% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .274 | 4.93 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 69 | +0.99 | 3.68 | 181 | 83 |
| Nick Ernst R 2024 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 117 | 81 |
| Theo Denlinger R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.32 | 20.2% | 16.4% | 1.6% | .266 | 4.20 | 15.3% | 9.9% | 41 | -0.12 | 3.03 | 140 | 80 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2024 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 79 |
| Caleb Simpson R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.10 | 24.7% | 17.3% | 1.6% | .189 | 4.23 | 22.4% | 9.7% | 54 | +0.13 | 3.28 | 197 | 79 |
| Jack Ralston R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.91 | 23.3% | 18.1% | 2.7% | .338 | 3.54 | 28.3% | 18.1% | 51 | -1.37 | 3.50 | 299 | 79 |
| Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.38 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 4.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 153 | 79 |
| Javy Guerra R 2029 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 79 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2025 · 5.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.51 | 25.3% | 16.2% | 4.6% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 142 | 79 |
| Jake Haberer R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.49 | 24.3% | 16.0% | 4.4% | .324 | 5.40 | 16.4% | 0.9% | 62 | -0.09 | 3.62 | 183 | 79 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 79 |
| Armando Rivero R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.39 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .256 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.58 | 2.81 | 125 | 79 |
| Grant Sides R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.89 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.65 | 3.24 | 159 | 78 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 78 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.67 | 24.1% | 15.3% | 3.0% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 172 | 78 |
| Cole Uvila R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 20.4% | 13.2% | 1.9% | .360 | 3.16 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 44 | -0.92 | 3.16 | 155 | 78 |
| Parker Markel R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 29.7% | 16.5% | 3.9% | .250 | 4.08 | 28.9% | 11.6% | 97 | -0.73 | 3.16 | 266 | 77 |
| Peyton Gray R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.31 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 138 | 77 |
| Cayne Ueckert R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 23.4% | 14.0% | 1.8% | .337 | 5.97 | 19.2% | 4.6% | 64 | +2.09 | 3.88 | 205 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 56 | 24.7% | 16.1% | 1.11 | 4.95 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |