Abel Mercedes

P Lansing Lugnuts

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 217 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	AHOU	30	41	4.35	3.70	32.7%	23.8%	—	K 24.2% · BB 28.0% · FIP 4.96
2026	24	A+OAK	36	37	5.15	5.31	28.0%	26.4%	—	K 21.6% · BB 30.3% · FIP 6.25
2027PROJ	25	MLBOAK	57	60	5.54	5.54	23.3%	20.0%	-0.7
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBOAK	25	26	5.40	5.39	23.5%	18.9%	-0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBOAK	35	37	5.34	5.35	23.5%	18.2%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control20Command30

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsCaleb Simpson (age 25) · Fernando Baez (age 25) · Zane Russell (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.54

FIP5.54

K%23.3%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%3.3%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL2020

CMD3030

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros	10	0	19	99	21	22	0	0%	1.9	14.4%	27.8%	-13.4%	0.0%	7.91	5.40	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Astros	10	0	19	99	21	22	0	0%	1.9	21.2%	22.2%	-1.0%	0.0%	7.91	4.34	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL HOU Orange	12	7	37	165	57	24	0	58%	3.1	23.5%	18.2%	5.3%	0.0%	5.35	3.42	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL HOU Orange	12	7	37	165	57	24	0	58%	3.1	34.5%	14.5%	20.0%	0.0%	5.35	1.96	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	11	3	29	145	49	37	0	27%	2.6	23.0%	31.9%	-8.9%	0.0%	6.83	5.20	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	11	3	29	145	49	37	0	27%	2.6	33.8%	25.5%	8.3%	0.0%	6.83	3.55	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	40	0	45	216	74	55	0	0%	1.1	25.4%	30.0%	-4.7%	0.0%	5.16	4.77	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	40	0	45	216	74	55	0	0%	1.1	25.4%	30.0%	-4.7%	0.0%	5.16	4.77	—
2024	22	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	40	0	45	216	74	55	0	0%	1.1	34.3%	25.5%	8.8%	0.0%	5.16	3.48	—
2025	23	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	30	0	41	202	66	48	1	0%	1.4	24.2%	28.0%	-3.9%	0.6%	4.35	4.96	—
2025	23	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	30	0	41	202	66	48	1	0%	1.4	24.2%	28.0%	-3.9%	0.6%	4.35	4.96	—
2025	23	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	30	0	41	202	66	48	1	0%	1.4	32.7%	23.8%	8.9%	0.5%	4.35	3.70	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	36	0	37	182	51	48	3	0%	1.0	21.6%	30.3%	-8.8%	2.1%	5.15	6.25	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	36	0	37	182	51	48	3	0%	1.0	21.6%	30.3%	-8.8%	2.1%	5.15	6.25	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	36	0	37	182	51	48	3	0%	1.0	28.0%	26.4%	1.6%	1.6%	5.15	5.31	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	OAK	57	0	60	253	59	51	7	0%	1.1	23.3%	20.0%	3.3%	2.7%	5.54	5.54	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	OAK	57	0	60	251	59	47	7	0%	1.0	23.5%	18.9%	4.7%	2.7%	5.40	5.39	-0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	OAK	56	0	59	247	58	45	7	0%	1.0	23.5%	18.2%	5.3%	2.8%	5.34	5.35	-0.5
2028	26	MLB CTX	OAK	25	0	26	110	26	21	3	0%	1.0	23.5%	18.9%	4.7%	2.7%	5.40	5.39	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	OAK	35	0	37	156	37	28	4	0%	1.1	23.5%	18.2%	5.3%	2.8%	5.34	5.35	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	62	264	62	49	7	0%	1.1	23.5%	18.5%	5.0%	2.8%	5.36	4.99	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	199	157	22	0%	1.1	23.5%	18.5%	5.0%	2.8%	5.36	4.99	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		139	10	209	1009	229	280	5	7%	1.5	22.7%	27.8%	-5.1%	0.5%	5.52	4.98	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		133	10	200	967	220	269	5	7%	1.5	22.7%	27.8%	-5.1%	0.5%	5.52	4.98	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Abel Mercedes (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.54	23.3%	20.0%	2.7%	—	5.37	23.5%	5.0%	118	-0.17	—	—	—
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	88
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	87
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	87
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	87
Kyle Wilcox R 2019 · 5.16 FIP	25	SU	5.16	25.1%	21.2%	2.7%	.310	5.57	25.1%	-1.5%	13	+0.41	2.78	310	86
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	25	SU	4.61	20.9%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.12	24.4%	7.6%	107	-0.49	3.92	311	86
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	85
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	84
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	83
Christopher Troye R 2024 · 5.46 FIP	25	SU	5.46	24.2%	17.0%	4.1%	.282	5.61	19.1%	-3.8%	30	+0.15	3.42	158	83
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	83
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	83
LJ McDonough R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	22.6%	16.7%	2.3%	.385	4.85	20.0%	2.8%	90	+0.31	4.16	127	83
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	83
Evan Johnson R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	23.6%	17.6%	2.4%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	82
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	82
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	82
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	82
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	81
Jeff Ames R 2016 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	18.0%	16.1%	2.8%	.229	4.34	25.2%	11.2%	142	-0.83	3.85	272	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	23.5%	19.0%	1.07	5.43
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Ken Wright ('70-'74, -0 WAR*)	1.2	79	23.8%*	16.1%*	0.70*	5.24*
Dave Jolly ('53-'57, -0 WAR*)	1.5	58	20.2%*	14.3%*	0.91*	4.33*