Abel Mercedes
P
Lansing Lugnuts
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 217 lbs
A+
2026 ROS PROJECTION17 act + 90 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 156147vR 138
ERA6.14
FIP6.14
K%25.1%
BB%26.4%
K-BB%-1.4%
ROS IP90
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 107 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Astros | 10 | 0 | 19 | 99 | 21 | 22 | 0 | 0% | 1.9 | 14.4% | 27.8% | -13.4% | 0.0% | 7.91 | 5.40 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Astros | 10 | 0 | 19 | 99 | 21 | 22 | 0 | 0% | 1.9 | 21.2% | 22.2% | -1.0% | 0.0% | 7.91 | 4.34 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | DSL HOU Orange | 12 | 7 | 37 | 165 | 57 | 24 | 0 | 58% | 3.1 | 23.5% | 18.2% | 5.3% | 0.0% | 5.35 | 3.42 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | DSL HOU Orange | 12 | 7 | 37 | 165 | 57 | 24 | 0 | 58% | 3.1 | 34.5% | 14.5% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 5.35 | 1.96 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | FCL Astros | 11 | 3 | 29 | 145 | 49 | 37 | 0 | 27% | 2.6 | 23.0% | 31.9% | -8.9% | 0.0% | 6.83 | 5.20 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | FCL Astros | 11 | 3 | 29 | 145 | 49 | 37 | 0 | 27% | 2.6 | 33.8% | 25.5% | 8.3% | 0.0% | 6.83 | 3.55 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 40 | 0 | 45 | 216 | 74 | 55 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 30.0% | -4.7% | 0.0% | 5.16 | 4.77 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 40 | 0 | 45 | 216 | 74 | 55 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 34.3% | 25.5% | 8.8% | 0.0% | 5.16 | 3.48 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 30 | 0 | 41 | 202 | 66 | 48 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 24.2% | 28.0% | -3.9% | 0.6% | 4.35 | 4.96 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 30 | 0 | 41 | 202 | 66 | 48 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 32.7% | 23.8% | 8.9% | 0.5% | 4.35 | 3.70 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 21 | 0 | 17 | 93 | 27 | 30 | 2 | 0% | 0.8 | 22.4% | 37.1% | -14.7% | 2.7% | 7.94 | 7.39 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | OAK | 86 | 0 | 90 | 380 | 95 | 100 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.1% | 26.4% | -1.4% | 2.6% | 6.14 | 6.14 | -1.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 25.1% | 26.4% | -1.4% | 2.6% | 6.14 | 6.14 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 107 | 473 | 122 | 130 | 12 | — | — | 25.8% | 27.6% | -1.8% | 2.5% | 6.43 | 6.34 | -1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 25.1% | 26.4% | -1.4% | 2.6% | 6.14 | 5.76 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 87 | 0 | 91 | 385 | 97 | 85 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.1% | 22.1% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 5.74 | 5.59 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 87 | 0 | 91 | 385 | 97 | 81 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.1% | 21.0% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 5.54 | 5.47 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 85 | 0 | 90 | 379 | 94 | 77 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 20.4% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 5.46 | 5.45 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 41 | 36 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 22.1% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 5.74 | 5.59 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 65 | 54 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 21.0% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 5.54 | 5.47 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 73 | 59 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 20.4% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 5.46 | 5.45 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 161 | 0 | 170 | 716 | 179 | 150 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.0% | 21.0% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 5.56 | 5.11 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 211 | 177 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.0% | 21.0% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 5.56 | 5.11 | +0.7 | ||
| Career | — | 124 | 10 | 189 | 920 | 211 | 260 | 4 | 8% | 1.5 | 22.9% | 28.2% | -5.3% | 0.4% | 5.81 | 4.97 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 131 | 11 | 200 | 974 | 223 | 275 | 4 | 8% | 1.5 | 22.9% | 28.2% | -5.3% | 0.4% | 5.81 | 4.97 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Abel Mercedes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.14 | 25.1% | 26.4% | 2.6% | — | 5.50 | 25.1% | 3.9% | 272 | -0.64 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Sublette R 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.61 | 21.4% | 22.3% | 2.7% | .278 | 5.16 | 19.4% | 2.8% | 102 | -0.45 | 3.73 | 203 | 82 |
| Caleb Simpson R 2027 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.35 | 23.7% | 17.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.98 | 23.5% | 5.1% | 71 | -1.37 | 3.28 | 197 | 80 |
| Tyler Bradt R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.09 | 19.0% | 18.7% | 2.2% | .241 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 135 | 79 |
| Tommy DeJuneas R 2025 · 5.09 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.09 | 20.8% | 18.8% | 2.5% | .324 | 5.52 | 13.7% | -3.9% | 51 | +0.43 | 3.90 | 178 | 78 |
| Zane Russell R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.19 | 22.7% | 18.3% | 3.1% | .314 | 5.10 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 71 | -0.09 | 4.28 | 108 | 78 |
| Spencer Mraz R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.42 | 21.5% | 18.4% | 3.3% | .295 | 4.71 | 15.1% | -4.2% | 35 | -0.71 | 3.61 | 155 | 77 |
| Alex Makarewich R 2026 · 5.83 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.83 | 26.8% | 28.7% | 2.5% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 103 | 77 |
| Yunior Montero R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.26 | 21.3% | 17.6% | 3.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 127 | 77 |
| Max Gieg R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.16 | 19.9% | 21.5% | 1.8% | .310 | 6.25 | 18.5% | -7.4% | 37 | +1.09 | 4.10 | 146 | 76 |
| Yoel Espinal R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.34 | 21.4% | 23.1% | 2.0% | .255 | 4.16 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 99 | -1.18 | 3.88 | 231 | 76 |
| Jacob Morris R 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.72 | 18.0% | 19.6% | 3.0% | .218 | 4.72 | 18.7% | -2.4% | 46 | -1.00 | 4.72 | 102 | 76 |
| Josh Graham R 2026 · 4.95 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.95 | 20.4% | 15.1% | 3.0% | .327 | 4.59 | 18.0% | 10.1% | 70 | -0.36 | 2.15 | 254 | 76 |
| Sal Biasi R 2025 · 5.19 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.19 | 20.1% | 15.8% | 3.3% | .295 | 7.85 | 15.3% | -0.2% | 23 | +2.66 | 4.68 | 188 | 75 |
| Luis Mora R 2026 · 5.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.55 | 23.9% | 22.7% | 2.9% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 119 | 75 |
| Will McAffer R 2026 · 6.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 6.61 | 21.5% | 24.2% | 4.1% | .343 | 5.42 | 14.5% | -5.7% | 33 | -1.19 | 4.59 | 133 | 75 |
| Josh Harlow R 2026 · 5.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.71 | 17.1% | 21.3% | 2.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.52 | 107 | 75 |
| CJ Weins R 2026 · 5.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.54 | 17.8% | 23.0% | 1.9% | .302 | 5.65 | 15.5% | 0.6% | 32 | +0.11 | 4.42 | 113 | 74 |
| Luis De La Cruz R 2025 · 5.65 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.65 | 20.6% | 23.1% | 2.5% | .257 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 139 | 74 |
| Austin Glorius R 2026 · 6.18 FIP | 24 | SU | 6.18 | 18.7% | 21.0% | 3.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 141 | 73 |
| Cole McDonald R 2027 · 5.12 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.12 | 26.5% | 19.8% | 3.2% | .403 | 4.00 | 23.7% | 11.2% | 93 | -1.12 | 2.72 | 153 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 90 | 25.1% | 22.5% | 1.02 | 5.72 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |