Abel Mercedes — OGILVIE

Abel Mercedes P Lansing Lugnuts

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 217 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 158150vR 142

ERA6.60

FIP6.60

K%25.1%

BB%30.1%

K-BB%-5.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL2020

CMD3030

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros	10	0	19	99	21	22	0	0%	1.9	14.4%	27.8%	-13.4%	0.0%	7.91	5.40	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Astros	10	0	19	99	21	22	0	0%	1.9	21.2%	22.2%	-1.0%	0.0%	7.91	4.34	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL HOU Orange	12	7	37	165	57	24	0	58%	3.1	23.5%	18.2%	5.3%	0.0%	5.35	3.42	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL HOU Orange	12	7	37	165	57	24	0	58%	3.1	34.5%	14.5%	20.0%	0.0%	5.35	1.96	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	11	3	29	145	49	37	0	27%	2.6	23.0%	31.9%	-8.9%	0.0%	6.83	5.20	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	11	3	29	145	49	37	0	27%	2.6	23.0%	31.9%	-8.9%	0.0%	6.83	5.20	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	11	3	29	145	49	37	0	27%	2.6	33.8%	25.5%	8.3%	0.0%	6.83	3.55	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	40	0	45	216	74	55	0	0%	1.1	25.4%	30.0%	-4.7%	0.0%	5.16	4.77	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	40	0	45	216	74	55	0	0%	1.1	25.4%	30.0%	-4.7%	0.0%	5.16	4.77	—
2024	22	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	40	0	45	216	74	55	0	0%	1.1	34.3%	25.5%	8.8%	0.0%	5.16	3.48	—
2025	23	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	30	0	41	202	66	48	1	0%	1.4	24.2%	28.0%	-3.9%	0.6%	4.35	4.96	—
2025	23	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	30	0	41	202	66	48	1	0%	1.4	24.2%	28.0%	-3.9%	0.6%	4.35	4.96	—
2025	23	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	30	0	41	202	66	48	1	0%	1.4	32.7%	23.8%	8.9%	0.5%	4.35	3.70	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	36	0	37	182	51	48	3	0%	1.0	21.6%	30.3%	-8.8%	2.1%	5.15	6.25	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	36	0	37	182	51	48	3	0%	1.0	21.6%	30.3%	-8.8%	2.1%	5.15	6.25	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	OAK	36	0	37	182	51	48	3	0%	1.0	28.0%	26.4%	1.6%	1.6%	5.15	4.98	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	OAK	6	0	6	25	6	7	1	0%	1.0	25.1%	30.1%	-5.0%	2.6%	6.60	6.60	-0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	OAK	—	—	43	207	57	55	4	—	—	27.7%	26.8%	0.8%	1.8%	5.35	6.30	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	OAK	87	0	91	385	97	95	10	0%	1.0	25.1%	24.8%	0.3%	2.6%	6.11	5.94	-1.4
2028	26	MLB MLE	OAK	87	0	91	385	97	90	10	0%	1.0	25.1%	23.5%	1.6%	2.6%	5.86	5.79	-1.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	OAK	85	0	90	379	94	86	10	0%	1.1	24.9%	22.8%	2.2%	2.7%	5.76	5.75	-1.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	OAK	83	0	87	367	91	83	10	0%	1.0	24.7%	22.5%	2.2%	2.8%	5.77	5.80	-1.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	OAK	79	0	83	351	86	80	10	0%	1.1	24.5%	22.8%	1.7%	3.0%	5.86	5.93	-1.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	OAK	74	0	78	330	86	73	10	0%	1.1	26.1%	22.3%	3.9%	3.2%	5.84	5.83	-1.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	OAK	37	0	39	165	41	41	4	0%	1.1	25.1%	24.8%	0.3%	2.6%	6.11	5.94	-0.6
2028	26	MLB CTX	OAK	58	0	61	258	65	60	7	0%	1.1	25.1%	23.5%	1.6%	2.6%	5.86	5.79	-0.8
2029	27	MLB CTX	OAK	66	0	69	291	73	66	8	0%	1.0	24.9%	22.8%	2.2%	2.7%	5.76	5.75	-0.9
2030	28	MLB CTX	OAK	70	0	73	308	76	69	9	0%	1.0	24.7%	22.5%	2.2%	2.8%	5.77	5.80	-1.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	OAK	70	0	73	308	75	70	9	0%	1.0	24.5%	22.8%	1.7%	3.0%	5.86	5.93	-1.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	OAK	67	0	70	296	77	66	9	0%	1.0	26.1%	22.3%	3.9%	3.2%	5.84	5.83	-1.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		367	0	385	1626	408	373	46	0%	1.0	25.1%	22.9%	2.1%	2.8%	5.85	5.45	-4.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	212	194	24	0%	1.1	25.1%	22.9%	2.1%	2.8%	5.85	5.45	-2.1
Career	—	MLE		139	10	209	1009	229	280	5	7%	1.5	22.7%	27.8%	-5.1%	0.5%	5.52	4.98	-7.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		133	10	200	967	220	269	5	7%	1.5	22.7%	27.8%	-5.1%	0.5%	5.52	4.98	-3.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Abel Mercedes (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.60	25.1%	30.1%	2.6%	—	5.83	25.1%	1.4%	272	-0.77	—	—	—
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.09	18.9%	3.4%	102	-0.63	3.74	203	81
Andrew Baker R 2023 · 5.99 FIP	23	SU	5.99	24.7%	25.1%	3.3%	.315	3.65	25.3%	12.2%	161	-2.34	3.44	256	77
Will McAffer R 2021 · 6.40 FIP	24	SU	6.40	21.5%	24.2%	3.7%	.343	5.37	14.5%	-5.7%	33	-1.03	4.68	133	76
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	76
Spencer Mraz R 2022 · 5.62 FIP	24	SU	5.62	21.5%	18.4%	3.6%	.295	4.68	15.1%	-4.2%	35	-0.94	3.61	155	74
Austin Glorius R 2017 · 6.09 FIP	24	SU	6.09	18.7%	21.0%	3.5%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	141	74
Alec Hansen R 2019 · 5.74 FIP	24	SU	5.74	18.8%	19.8%	3.1%	.349	4.98	29.5%	-5.0%	22	-0.76	3.34	288	71
Luke Jackson R 2016 · 5.62 FIP	24	SU	5.62	19.5%	15.3%	4.1%	.327	3.21	25.8%	16.8%	210	-2.41	2.67	580	71
Everhett Hazelwood R 2023 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	19.0%	15.4%	4.1%	.343	9.36	17.5%	0.6%	14	+3.66	5.23	117	71
John McMillon R 2022 · 5.92 FIP	24	SU	5.92	22.8%	30.7%	1.6%	.246	4.70	26.1%	11.5%	108	-1.22	2.28	152	71
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	70
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	70
Leandro Linares R 2018 · 5.49 FIP	24	SU	5.49	16.2%	22.0%	1.8%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	1.93	134	69
Alejandro Méndez R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	22	SU	5.85	20.6%	28.1%	1.7%	.211	5.17	15.0%	-6.0%	38	-0.67	4.65	136	69
Wellington Diaz R 2021 · 5.58 FIP	24	SU	5.58	22.7%	18.4%	3.8%	.273	6.15	15.7%	-3.3%	23	+0.57	3.29	172	68
Elison Joseph R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	22	SU	5.72	22.7%	17.0%	4.3%	.297	4.12	24.4%	3.7%	110	-1.60	3.32	217	68
Raul Brito R 2021 · 5.68 FIP	24	SU	5.68	18.3%	18.0%	3.4%	.337	3.36	22.3%	11.2%	169	-2.32	2.92	404	68
Michel Otañez R 2021 · 5.41 FIP	24	SU	5.41	23.3%	24.6%	2.1%	.300	3.46	28.4%	12.9%	149	-1.95	2.82	316	67
Xavier Moore R 2023 · 5.42 FIP	24	SU	5.42	23.6%	25.5%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.31	135	67
Juan Mendez R 2023 · 6.22 FIP	24	SU	6.22	23.9%	17.9%	5.2%	.232	3.69	20.6%	10.3%	36	-2.53	3.69	156	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	87	25.1%	24.2%	1.08	5.98
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91