Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 3 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 2.0 | 18.5% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.47 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 3 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 2.0 | 18.5% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.43 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 18 | 0 | 31 | 146 | 28 | 16 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 13.0% | 13.7% | -0.7% | 0.0% | 4.02 | 3.73 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 18 | 0 | 31 | 146 | 28 | 16 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 19.2% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 0.0% | 4.02 | 2.84 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 13 | 0 | 23 | 108 | 21 | 15 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 13.2% | 17.4% | -4.1% | 0.0% | 2.35 | 4.18 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 13 | 0 | 23 | 108 | 21 | 15 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 19.4% | 13.9% | 5.6% | 0.0% | 2.35 | 3.23 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Clinton LumberKings | 20 | 0 | 27 | 130 | 29 | 17 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 16.5% | 15.4% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 4.39 | 3.66 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Clinton LumberKings | 20 | 0 | 27 | 130 | 29 | 17 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 9.2% | 0.0% | 4.39 | 2.84 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 0 | 38 | 181 | 44 | 28 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.3% | 18.0% | 0.3% | 3.3% | 5.97 | 5.64 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 0 | 38 | 181 | 44 | 28 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 24.3% | 15.5% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 5.97 | 4.72 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 33 | 0 | 52 | 217 | 55 | 18 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 0.7% | 3.10 | 3.07 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 33 | 0 | 52 | 217 | 55 | 18 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 25.3% | 8.3% | 17.1% | 0.5% | 3.10 | 2.28 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 62 | 263 | 78 | 28 | 1 | 0% | 2.3 | 23.6% | 11.9% | 11.7% | 0.7% | 2.60 | 3.00 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 62 | 263 | 78 | 28 | 1 | 0% | 2.3 | 29.7% | 10.6% | 19.0% | 0.4% | 2.60 | 2.15 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 33 | 1 | 54 | 217 | 63 | 23 | 5 | 3% | 1.6 | 23.5% | 11.7% | 11.9% | 3.1% | 3.31 | 4.27 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 33 | 1 | 54 | 217 | 63 | 23 | 5 | 3% | 1.6 | 29.0% | 10.6% | 18.4% | 2.3% | 3.31 | 3.25 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 48 | 0 | 63 | 297 | 82 | 35 | 10 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.3% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 3.8% | 6.11 | 4.73 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 48 | 0 | 63 | 297 | 82 | 35 | 10 | 0% | 1.3 | 27.6% | 11.8% | 15.8% | 3.4% | 6.11 | 4.22 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 28 | 0 | 49 | 223 | 46 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 1.8 | 18.2% | 13.2% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | MIN | 65 | 0 | 69 | 290 | 72 | 34 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.7% | 11.7% | 13.0% | 3.2% | 4.65 | 4.65 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | MIN | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.7% | 11.7% | 13.0% | 3.2% | 4.65 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 118 | 513 | 118 | 62 | 15 | — | — | 22.9% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 3.0% | 4.61 | 4.74 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 7 | 29 | 7 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 24.7% | 11.7% | 13.0% | 3.2% | 4.65 | 4.27 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 61 | 0 | 64 | 272 | 66 | 32 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 3.4% | 4.72 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 57 | 0 | 60 | 254 | 60 | 30 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 3.6% | 4.85 | 4.96 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 25 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.2% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 3.4% | 4.72 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 33 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 3.6% | 4.85 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 61 | 0 | 64 | 269 | 65 | 32 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.0% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 3.5% | 4.78 | 4.49 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 204 | 100 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 3.5% | 4.78 | 4.49 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 247 | 1 | 406 | 1809 | 361 | 237 | 34 | 0% | 1.6 | 20.0% | 13.1% | 6.9% | 1.9% | 4.03 | 4.11 | +6.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 122 | 0 | 200 | 890 | 178 | 117 | 17 | 0% | 1.6 | 20.0% | 13.1% | 6.9% | 1.9% | 4.03 | 4.11 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Raul Brito (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.65 | 24.7% | 11.7% | 3.2% | — | 4.87 | 24.0% | 12.1% | 125 | +0.22 | — | — | — |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.19 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.81 | 2.38 | 160 | 89 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.56 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .283 | 4.38 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.82 | 3.56 | 104 | 82 |
| Wily Peralta R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.18 | 22.7% | 13.7% | 2.3% | .310 | 4.93 | 15.3% | 5.5% | 154 | +0.75 | 4.02 | 748 | 81 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.18 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.40 | 2.76 | 228 | 81 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 81 |
| Cody Allen R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.22 | 27.7% | 10.7% | 3.8% | .281 | 7.59 | 25.0% | 7.8% | 23 | +3.37 | 1.58 | 295 | 80 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 80 |
| Javy Guerra R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 80 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 80 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 80 |
| Blake Smith R 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.66 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 124 | 79 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.80 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 1.9% | .281 | 3.81 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 179 | +0.01 | 2.40 | 617 | 79 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 79 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.86 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | .275 | 3.73 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 152 | -1.13 | 3.40 | 295 | 78 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.02 | 21.7% | 7.6% | 3.3% | .272 | 3.57 | 22.3% | 11.3% | 62 | -0.45 | 3.57 | 224 | 78 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.45 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .299 | 3.95 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.50 | 3.53 | 134 | 78 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2028 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 77 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.58 | 20.8% | 11.1% | 3.3% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 230 | 77 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2028 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 77 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 64 | 24.2% | 11.8% | 1.32 | 4.74 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |