Magnus Ellerts

P Akron RubberDucks

Age 26 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	45	56	2.91	2.56	35.9%	12.1%	—	K 28.1% · BB 13.7% · FIP 3.56
2025	24	AACLE	32	42	4.71	3.46	32.5%	17.5%	—	K 26.3% · BB 19.3% · FIP 4.42
2026	25	MIX2 levels	18	23	3.18	3.10	31.1%	16.5%	—	K 25.1% · BB 18.7% · FIP 4.01
2027PROJ	26	MLBCLE	57	60	5.00	5.00	27.0%	18.3%	-0.3
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBCLE	21	22	4.96	4.97	26.6%	17.5%	-0.1
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBCLE	32	34	4.97	5.01	26.2%	17.0%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff60Control20Command50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsDennis Sarfate (age 27) · Mitchell Stumpo (age 26) · Stevie Branche (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.00

FIP5.00

K%27.0%

BB%18.3%

K-BB%8.6%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL2020

CMD5050

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	41	171	67	17	4	0%	1.3	29.5%	11.5%	18.0%	2.8%	3.73	3.61	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	41	171	67	17	4	0%	1.3	39.2%	9.9%	29.2%	2.3%	3.73	2.34	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	56	231	83	28	4	0%	1.2	28.1%	13.7%	14.3%	2.0%	2.91	3.56	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	56	231	83	28	4	0%	1.2	28.1%	13.7%	14.3%	2.0%	2.91	3.56	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	56	231	83	28	4	0%	1.2	35.9%	12.1%	23.8%	1.7%	2.91	2.56	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	32	0	42	194	63	34	3	0%	1.3	26.3%	19.3%	7.0%	2.0%	4.71	4.42	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	32	0	42	194	63	34	3	0%	1.3	26.3%	19.3%	7.0%	2.0%	4.71	4.42	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Akron RubberDucks	32	0	42	194	63	34	3	0%	1.3	32.5%	17.5%	14.9%	1.5%	4.71	3.46	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	23	103	32	17	1	0%	1.3	25.1%	18.7%	6.4%	1.2%	3.18	4.01	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	23	103	32	17	1	0%	1.3	25.1%	18.7%	6.4%	1.2%	3.18	4.01	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	0	23	103	32	17	1	0%	1.3	31.1%	16.5%	14.6%	1.0%	3.18	3.10	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CLE	57	0	60	253	68	46	7	0%	1.1	27.0%	18.3%	8.6%	2.7%	5.00	5.00	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CLE	56	0	59	247	66	43	7	0%	1.0	26.6%	17.5%	9.1%	2.8%	4.96	4.97	-0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	CLE	54	0	57	240	63	41	7	0%	1.1	26.2%	17.0%	9.2%	2.9%	4.97	5.01	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	CLE	21	0	22	93	25	16	3	0%	1.0	26.6%	17.5%	9.1%	2.8%	4.96	4.97	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	CLE	32	0	34	144	38	24	4	0%	1.1	26.2%	17.0%	9.2%	2.9%	4.97	5.01	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	0	56	236	62	41	7	0%	1.1	26.4%	17.2%	9.2%	2.8%	4.97	4.61	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	222	147	25	0%	1.1	26.4%	17.2%	9.2%	2.8%	4.97	4.61	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		127	0	161	699	192	108	15	0%	1.3	27.5%	15.5%	12.0%	2.1%	3.63	3.88	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		157	0	200	867	238	134	18	0%	1.3	27.5%	15.5%	12.0%	2.1%	3.63	3.88	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Magnus Ellerts (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	27.0%	18.3%	2.7%	—	4.99	26.4%	9.2%	115	-0.01	—	—	—
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	86
Mitchell Stumpo R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	26	SU	4.55	24.0%	16.8%	2.4%	.225	5.67	21.5%	6.6%	78	+1.12	3.97	158	84
Stevie Branche R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	25.6%	19.1%	1.2%	.274	5.67	19.3%	1.7%	28	+1.63	3.23	162	84
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	83
Ryan Jensen R 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	26.6%	17.2%	1.6%	.331	4.35	21.9%	5.6%	50	+0.43	3.92	311	83
Esmerling Vasquez R 2010 · 4.37 FIP	26	SU	4.37	22.9%	14.6%	2.5%	.278	4.23	12.5%	1.5%	62	-0.14	3.70	204	83
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	82
Eduardo Herrera R 2024 · 4.13 FIP	24	SU	4.13	25.5%	15.7%	2.2%	.284	4.44	16.7%	-5.0%	31	+0.31	4.13	127	82
Michael Stryffeler R 2022 · 4.24 FIP	26	SU	4.24	30.4%	17.3%	2.8%	.277	4.89	19.4%	1.1%	33	+0.65	2.43	140	81
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	81
Kyle Wilcox R 2019 · 5.16 FIP	25	SU	5.16	25.1%	21.2%	2.7%	.310	5.57	25.1%	-1.5%	13	+0.41	2.78	310	81
Jeff Ames R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	26	SU	3.94	25.1%	13.4%	2.3%	.310	4.65	25.4%	10.8%	79	+0.71	3.85	272	81
Matt Seelinger R 2021 · 5.37 FIP	26	SU	5.37	28.8%	18.3%	4.3%	.312	4.58	24.8%	12.2%	116	-0.79	3.13	371	81
Jose De La Torre R 2013 · 5.22 FIP	27	SU	5.22	28.3%	18.9%	3.9%	.308	3.87	17.6%	6.6%	110	-1.35	2.64	141	81
Christopher Troye R 2024 · 5.46 FIP	25	SU	5.46	24.2%	17.0%	4.1%	.282	5.61	19.1%	-3.8%	30	+0.15	3.42	158	81
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	80
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	79
Eduard Santos R 2016 · 3.86 FIP	26	SU	3.86	22.2%	14.4%	1.5%	.248	2.04	31.1%	18.7%	16	-1.82	2.04	138	79
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	79
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	26.6%	17.6%	1.08	4.98
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Ken Wright ('70-'74, -0 WAR*)	1.2	79	23.8%*	16.1%*	0.70*	5.24*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*