Owen Kellington — OGILVIE

Owen Kellington P Greensboro Grasshoppers

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 193 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 110

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%21.5%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%9.3%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	6	2	10	55	15	9	0	33%	1.7	18.5%	20.5%	-1.9%	0.0%	11.70	4.12	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates	6	2	10	55	15	9	0	33%	1.7	27.3%	16.4%	10.9%	0.0%	11.70	2.80	—
2023	20	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	23	18	80	344	90	50	8	78%	3.5	19.4%	17.2%	2.2%	3.1%	3.94	5.35	—
2023	20	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	23	18	80	344	90	50	8	78%	3.5	19.4%	17.2%	2.2%	3.1%	3.94	5.35	—
2023	20	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	23	18	80	344	90	50	8	78%	3.5	26.2%	14.5%	11.6%	2.3%	3.94	4.03	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	6	33	132	32	12	4	50%	2.7	20.6%	10.9%	9.6%	5.2%	3.31	5.58	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	6	33	132	32	12	4	50%	2.7	20.6%	10.9%	9.6%	5.2%	3.31	5.58	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	6	33	132	32	12	4	50%	2.7	24.2%	9.1%	15.2%	3.0%	3.31	3.83	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	20	0	27	134	31	22	8	0%	1.4	17.8%	18.9%	-1.1%	7.5%	8.00	8.08	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	20	0	27	134	31	22	8	0%	1.4	17.8%	18.9%	-1.1%	7.5%	8.00	8.08	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	PIT	20	0	27	134	31	22	8	0%	1.4	23.1%	16.4%	6.7%	6.0%	8.00	6.50	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	PIT	29	0	30	127	28	14	4	0%	1.0	22.3%	11.1%	11.2%	3.1%	4.76	4.69	-0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	PIT	12	0	13	55	12	6	2	0%	1.1	22.3%	11.1%	11.2%	3.1%	4.76	4.69	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	13	55	12	6	2	0%	1.1	22.3%	11.1%	11.2%	3.1%	4.76	4.31	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	185	93	31	0%	1.1	22.3%	11.1%	11.2%	3.1%	4.76	4.31	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		61	26	150	665	128	110	28	43%	2.5	19.2%	16.5%	2.7%	4.1%	5.05	5.84	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		82	35	200	889	171	147	37	43%	2.5	19.2%	16.5%	2.7%	4.1%	5.05	5.84	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Owen Kellington (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	21.5%	12.2%	3.1%	—	4.69	22.3%	11.2%	30	-0.23	—	—	—
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	85
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	85
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	83
Luis Romero R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	22.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.367	4.26	21.6%	12.5%	132	-0.74	4.00	293	82
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	82
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	81
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	80
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	80
Joey Matulovich R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	22	SW	5.52	19.8%	14.6%	4.1%	.378	5.04	20.5%	8.9%	133	-0.48	3.22	201	80
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	80
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	399	79
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	79
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.22	28.3%	14.7%	112	-0.80	3.17	173	79
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	78
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	78
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	78
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	78
Nick Lockhart R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	22	SW	4.63	16.1%	10.6%	2.8%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.44	140	78
Heath Slatton R 2017 · 5.56 FIP	23	SW	5.56	17.9%	12.9%	4.3%	.382	—	—	—	—	—	2.46	120	78
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	25	22.0%	11.5%	1.20	4.82
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78