Janzen Keisel — OGILVIE

Janzen Keisel P FCL Rays

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 208 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 16 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 150142vR 134

ERA6.16

FIP6.16

K%16.9%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-3.1%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	10	53	256	44	46	2	50%	2.6	12.4%	21.6%	-9.2%	0.9%	5.94	5.27	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	10	53	256	44	46	2	50%	2.6	12.4%	21.6%	-9.2%	0.9%	5.94	5.27	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	10	53	256	44	46	2	50%	2.6	17.2%	18.0%	-0.8%	0.8%	5.94	4.53	—
2026	23	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	14	0	14	80	11	24	1	0%	1.0	9.4%	37.5%	-28.1%	1.7%	12.51	8.02	—
2026	23	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	14	0	14	80	11	24	1	0%	1.0	9.4%	37.5%	-28.1%	1.7%	12.51	8.02	—
2026	23	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	14	0	14	80	11	24	1	0%	1.0	13.8%	30.0%	-16.2%	1.2%	12.51	7.71	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	TB	15	0	16	68	11	14	2	0%	1.1	16.9%	20.0%	-3.1%	2.9%	6.16	6.16	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TB	46	0	48	204	38	34	6	0%	1.1	18.5%	16.9%	1.6%	2.9%	5.76	5.63	-0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	TB	46	0	48	204	40	33	6	0%	1.1	19.5%	16.3%	3.2%	2.9%	5.55	5.47	-0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	TB	20	0	21	89	16	15	3	0%	1.1	18.5%	16.9%	1.6%	2.9%	5.76	5.63	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	TB	30	0	32	135	26	22	4	0%	1.1	19.5%	16.3%	3.2%	2.9%	5.55	5.47	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	0	53	222	42	37	6	0%	1.1	19.1%	16.5%	2.6%	2.9%	5.63	5.15	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	160	141	23	0%	1.1	19.1%	16.5%	2.6%	2.9%	5.63	5.15	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		34	10	67	336	39	85	4	29%	2.0	11.7%	25.4%	-13.7%	1.1%	7.29	5.92	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		102	30	200	1008	118	256	11	29%	2.0	11.7%	25.4%	-13.7%	1.1%	7.29	5.92	-2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Janzen Keisel (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.16	16.9%	20.0%	2.9%	—	5.55	19.0%	2.4%	97	-0.61	—	—	—
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	87
Jake Eddington R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	23	SW	5.02	18.8%	24.1%	0.8%	.316	4.83	16.6%	-1.5%	105	-0.19	4.70	135	82
Yordy Cabrera R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	15.8%	17.2%	1.9%	.321	4.17	13.7%	2.7%	140	-0.82	3.43	159	81
Drake Fellows R 2023 · 5.66 FIP	25	SW	5.66	17.1%	20.4%	2.6%	.367	4.88	14.6%	5.6%	271	-0.78	4.28	282	80
Kelvin Vasquez R 2017 · 6.26 FIP	24	SU	6.26	15.0%	23.2%	2.7%	.247	5.06	14.5%	-0.2%	48	-1.20	5.01	180	79
Roman Phansalkar R 2022 · 6.38 FIP	24	SU	6.38	13.5%	18.4%	3.8%	.245	4.77	17.4%	4.0%	147	-1.61	4.33	164	79
Frankie De La Cruz R 2008 · 7.16 FIP	24	SW	7.16	7.5%	20.8%	3.8%	.361	2.87	16.4%	7.3%	13	-4.29	2.87	262	78
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	78
Yoel Espinal R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	21.4%	23.1%	2.1%	.255	4.24	22.9%	10.0%	99	-1.13	3.86	231	78
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	78
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	78
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	78
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	77
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	77
Carlos Polanco R 2017 · 5.71 FIP	23	SU	5.71	13.9%	20.0%	2.3%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	276	77
Noah Takacs R 2024 · 5.77 FIP	22	SU	5.77	12.5%	16.4%	3.0%	.301	5.68	13.4%	-2.3%	91	-0.09	5.25	130	77
Leandro Linares R 2018 · 5.49 FIP	24	SU	5.49	16.2%	22.0%	1.8%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	1.93	134	77
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	76
Jack Hartman R 2022 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	15.1%	20.3%	2.5%	.357	3.99	19.5%	8.6%	143	-1.79	3.46	161	76
Jake Gozzo R 2021 · 7.10 FIP	24	SU	7.10	14.3%	30.2%	2.5%	.200	5.35	15.8%	-0.7%	129	-1.75	4.32	162	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	38	18.7%	17.1%	1.11	5.73
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
John Parrish ('10)	1.4	46	17.6%	14.8%	0.88	4.51
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57