Janzen Keisel — OGILVIE

Janzen Keisel P Charleston RiverDogs

+0.1 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 208 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.3 · 2028

ERA4.78

FIP4.78

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%20.9%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%8.8%

IP53

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.3peak

2028

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	22	A	Charleston RiverDogs	20	10	53	256	44	46	2	12.4%	21.6%	0.9%	5.94	5.25	-0.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	TB	53	—	53	224	47	27	6	20.9%	12.1%	2.8%	4.78	4.78	+0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	TB	54	—	54	229	50	25	6	21.7%	11.0%	2.8%	4.63	4.56	+0.2
2028	25	MLB	TB	55	—	55	232	51	24	6	22.2%	10.3%	2.8%	4.51	4.43	+0.3
2029	26	MLB	TB	55	—	55	232	52	24	6	22.4%	10.2%	2.8%	4.45	4.41	+0.3
2030	27	MLB	TB	55	—	55	231	52	24	6	22.5%	10.2%	2.8%	4.42	4.41	+0.3
2031	28	MLB	TB	54	—	54	227	51	23	6	22.4%	10.3%	2.8%	4.43	4.44	+0.3
2032	29	MLB	TB	53	—	53	222	50	23	6	22.3%	10.3%	2.9%	4.46	4.48	+0.3
2033	30	MLB	TB	51	—	51	215	48	22	6	22.1%	10.4%	2.9%	4.51	4.55	+0.2
2034	31	MLB	TB	49	—	49	208	45	22	6	21.9%	10.6%	3.0%	4.58	4.62	+0.2
2035	32	MLB	TB	47	—	47	199	43	21	6	21.6%	10.7%	3.1%	4.66	4.71	+0.1
2036	33	MLB	TB	45	—	45	190	41	21	6	21.3%	10.9%	3.2%	4.75	4.81	+0.1
2037	34	MLB	TB	43	—	43	181	38	20	6	20.9%	11.1%	3.3%	4.85	4.92	+0.0
2038	35	MLB	TB	40	—	40	170	35	19	6	20.5%	11.3%	3.4%	4.96	5.04	-0.0
2039	36	MLB	TB	38	—	38	159	32	18	6	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	5.09	5.17	-0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			20	10	53	256	32	55	2	12.4%	21.6%	0.9%	5.94	5.25	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—			75	38	200	966	121	208	8	12.4%	21.6%	0.9%	5.94	5.25	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Janzen Keisel (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	20.9%	12.1%	2.8%	—	4.47	22.1%	11.6%	164	-0.31	—	—	—
Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.50 FIP	23	SW	4.50	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.24	25.9%	14.9%	121	-0.26	3.32	181	96
Max Alba R 2027 · 4.50 FIP	24	SW	4.50	20.6%	12.6%	2.8%	.290	4.91	17.8%	11.6%	162	+0.41	4.50	217	95
Alec Barger R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	23	SW	4.51	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.34	3.86	242	94
Brett Standlee R 2026 · 4.11 FIP	23	SW	4.11	19.7%	11.1%	2.3%	.322	4.48	17.0%	8.9%	75	+0.37	4.11	128	93
Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.56 FIP	23	SW	4.56	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.78	16.2%	5.7%	316	+0.22	3.98	371	93
William Kempner R 2025 · 4.04 FIP	22	SW	4.04	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.24	27.3%	11.8%	68	-0.80	3.24	129	93
Colby Morris R 2027 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.74	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.64	4.10	105	93
Bailey Dees R 2026 · 4.27 FIP	23	SW	4.27	21.3%	13.2%	2.4%	.248	4.37	21.4%	9.6%	278	+0.10	3.41	330	92
Shane Broyles R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	23	SW	3.95	21.9%	11.5%	2.3%	.338	3.75	25.7%	14.5%	159	-0.20	3.30	218	92
Tanner Jacobson R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	23	SW	4.10	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.90	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.10	168	91
Alex Palsha R 2027 · 3.86 FIP	24	SW	3.86	20.6%	10.4%	2.2%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.03	3.40	134	91
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2027 · 4.58 FIP	24	SW	4.58	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.72	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.14	4.04	404	91
Billy Corcoran R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	23	SW	4.24	19.5%	10.0%	2.8%	.308	4.43	16.0%	9.0%	156	+0.19	4.24	225	91
Tyler Schoff R 2026 · 4.28 FIP	23	SW	4.28	19.6%	10.8%	2.7%	.350	3.71	23.8%	15.7%	93	-0.57	3.68	147	91
Patrick Halligan R 2026 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.49	24.9%	14.5%	98	-0.93	2.46	228	90
Todd Van Steensel R 2027 · 3.78 FIP	24	SW	3.78	22.5%	11.6%	2.0%	.294	3.31	19.3%	6.5%	157	-0.47	2.87	223	90
Kelvin Ramirez R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	23	SW	4.58	20.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.307	4.53	20.0%	-2.2%	48	-0.05	3.36	178	90
Ralston Cash R 2026 · 4.86 FIP	23	SW	4.86	19.4%	11.8%	3.5%	.240	3.89	23.0%	11.0%	185	-0.97	3.02	242	90
Colby Blueberg R 2026 · 4.44 FIP	23	SW	4.44	17.7%	11.0%	2.6%	.310	3.81	21.6%	10.6%	110	-0.63	2.36	229	90
Michael Knorr R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	23	SW	4.23	23.6%	11.1%	3.1%	.312	5.10	22.3%	9.9%	93	+0.87	4.23	152	90

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.2	$1.0M	+$0.0M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	+0.2	$1M	+$0.6M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.1M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$5M	+$2M