Ty Weatherly — OGILVIE

Ty Weatherly P Aberdeen IronBirds

Age 26 RHP 6'6" / 195 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2028

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 60 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138129vR 121

ERA5.50

FIP5.50

K%17.9%

BB%15.4%

K-BB%2.6%

ROS IP60

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	0	12	43	14	3	1	0%	1.9	32.6%	7.0%	25.6%	2.3%	2.31	2.51	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	0	12	43	14	3	1	0%	1.9	32.6%	7.0%	25.6%	2.3%	2.31	2.59	—
2024	23	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	13	10	36	140	48	17	1	77%	2.7	25.4%	14.3%	11.0%	1.0%	2.02	3.31	—
2024	23	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	13	10	36	140	48	17	1	77%	2.7	25.4%	14.3%	11.0%	1.0%	2.02	3.31	—
2024	23	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	13	10	36	140	48	17	1	77%	2.7	34.3%	12.1%	22.1%	0.7%	2.02	2.20	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	15	7	43	208	46	26	4	47%	2.9	17.0%	14.4%	2.7%	2.0%	8.31	4.56	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	15	7	43	208	46	26	4	47%	2.9	17.0%	14.4%	2.7%	2.0%	8.31	4.56	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	15	7	43	208	46	26	4	47%	2.9	22.1%	12.5%	9.6%	1.9%	8.31	3.98	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	BAL	10	10	60	253	45	39	7	100%	6.0	17.9%	15.4%	2.6%	2.9%	5.50	5.50	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	BAL	10	10	59	247	46	37	7	100%	5.9	18.5%	14.8%	3.6%	3.0%	5.40	5.42	-0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	BAL	9	9	57	240	45	35	7	100%	6.3	18.7%	14.5%	4.2%	3.1%	5.38	5.42	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	BAL	4	4	21	89	16	13	3	100%	5.2	18.5%	14.8%	3.6%	3.0%	5.40	5.42	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	BAL	6	6	33	139	26	20	4	100%	5.5	18.7%	14.5%	4.2%	3.1%	5.38	5.42	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	9	55	232	43	34	7	100%	6.1	18.6%	14.7%	4.0%	3.0%	5.39	5.04	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	156	124	25	100%	6.0	18.6%	14.7%	4.0%	3.0%	5.39	5.04	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		34	17	91	391	85	53	6	50%	2.7	21.7%	13.5%	8.2%	1.6%	5.06	3.88	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	38	200	863	187	117	14	50%	2.7	21.7%	13.5%	8.2%	1.6%	5.06	3.88	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ty Weatherly (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.50	17.9%	15.4%	2.9%	—	5.42	18.6%	3.9%	115	-0.08	—	—	—
Joe Record R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	26	SW	4.82	16.6%	15.3%	2.2%	.236	3.55	20.8%	9.1%	172	-1.27	2.64	280	79
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	79
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	78
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	77
Bryce Conley R 2021 · 4.31 FIP	26	SW	4.31	17.9%	12.2%	2.2%	.285	4.22	16.4%	5.3%	48	-0.09	4.22	560	77
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	76
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	75
Keyvius Sampson R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	26	SP-	5.08	19.6%	16.4%	2.8%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	316	75
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	75
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	75
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	74
Drew Conover R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	23	SW	6.25	15.6%	29.8%	1.3%	.272	5.19	12.6%	-3.4%	106	-1.06	4.49	145	74
Lucas Erceg R 2021 · 5.61 FIP	26	SP-	5.61	17.1%	18.1%	3.0%	.258	3.36	25.0%	13.8%	193	-2.25	2.10	351	74
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	74
Andrew Bash R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	26	SW	4.61	17.9%	12.7%	2.6%	.249	4.02	17.4%	7.8%	231	-0.59	3.46	483	74
Deylen Miley R 2023 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP-	5.34	22.3%	17.5%	3.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.07	185	73
Carlos Tavera R 2024 · 5.12 FIP	25	SW	5.12	18.3%	13.3%	3.4%	.299	5.43	21.9%	8.8%	29	+0.31	3.85	263	73
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	73
Victor Santos R 2003 · 5.99 FIP	26	SP-	5.99	12.8%	12.8%	4.3%	.293	4.38	15.4%	7.7%	411	-1.61	4.09	602	73
Ranfi Casimiro R 2018 · 4.62 FIP	26	SW	4.62	16.4%	10.7%	2.8%	.285	4.93	8.4%	-0.2%	16	+0.31	3.81	420	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	18.4%	14.9%	1.15	5.43
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68