Gavin Adams — OGILVIE

Gavin Adams P Bradenton Marauders

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 195 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 8 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 158150vR 142

ERA6.60

FIP6.60

K%22.1%

BB%26.6%

K-BB%-4.5%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	6	16	82	21	24	0	46%	1.2	17.7%	37.3%	-19.7%	0.0%	2.30	6.34	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	6	16	82	21	24	0	46%	1.2	17.7%	37.3%	-19.7%	0.0%	2.30	6.34	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	6	16	82	21	24	0	46%	1.2	25.6%	29.3%	-3.7%	0.0%	2.30	5.01	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	34	0	33	196	36	68	1	0%	1.0	13.6%	40.9%	-27.3%	0.7%	9.18	7.50	—
YTD	23	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	34	0	33	196	36	68	1	0%	1.0	13.6%	40.9%	-27.3%	0.7%	9.18	7.50	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	PIT	34	0	33	196	36	68	1	0%	1.0	18.4%	34.7%	-16.3%	0.5%	9.18	6.22	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	PIT	32	0	33	141	32	31	4	0%	1.0	22.7%	21.7%	1.0%	2.9%	6.09	5.91	-0.5
2027	24	MLB CTX	PIT	13	0	14	59	13	13	2	0%	1.1	22.7%	21.7%	1.0%	2.9%	6.09	5.91	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	14	60	14	13	2	0%	1.0	22.7%	21.7%	1.0%	2.9%	6.09	5.53	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	196	182	28	0%	1.1	22.7%	21.7%	1.0%	2.9%	6.09	5.53	-2.3
Career	—	MLE		47	6	49	278	41	111	1	13%	1.0	14.8%	39.9%	-25.1%	0.5%	6.98	7.16	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		192	24	200	1135	168	452	5	13%	1.0	14.8%	39.9%	-25.1%	0.5%	6.98	7.16	-3.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gavin Adams (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.60	22.1%	26.6%	2.9%	—	5.91	22.7%	1.0%	33	-0.69	—	—	—
Andrew Baker R 2023 · 5.99 FIP	23	SU	5.99	24.7%	25.1%	3.3%	.315	3.65	25.3%	12.2%	161	-2.34	3.44	256	83
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	78
Jack Hartman R 2022 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	15.1%	20.3%	2.5%	.357	3.99	19.5%	8.6%	143	-1.79	3.46	161	78
Alejandro Méndez R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	22	SU	5.85	20.6%	28.1%	1.7%	.211	5.17	15.0%	-6.0%	38	-0.67	4.65	136	77
Alec Kenilvort R 2016 · 6.44 FIP	23	SU	6.44	15.1%	17.0%	4.5%	.333	3.97	18.3%	9.1%	85	-2.47	2.97	109	76
Jacob Wallace R 2022 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	24.6%	21.6%	3.4%	.237	4.27	22.9%	10.2%	153	-1.32	3.50	279	76
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	76
Nick Starr R 2019 · 5.84 FIP	22	SU	5.84	16.6%	16.3%	3.8%	.450	5.56	21.5%	12.9%	64	-0.28	3.43	124	75
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	75
Johnathan Lavallee R 2023 · 6.17 FIP	23	SU	6.17	17.1%	18.6%	3.9%	.356	4.23	22.8%	9.6%	144	-1.94	3.72	210	75
Alex Speas R 2021 · 6.77 FIP	23	SU	6.77	27.0%	33.5%	3.1%	.348	4.08	26.4%	8.5%	86	-2.69	3.08	144	74
Derrik Watson R 2018 · 5.70 FIP	23	SU	5.70	16.9%	15.7%	3.7%	.344	4.12	20.0%	2.2%	80	-1.58	3.84	132	74
Stephen Nogosek R 2018 · 5.74 FIP	23	SU	5.74	19.4%	18.6%	3.5%	.237	3.01	24.8%	12.8%	85	-2.73	2.56	419	74
José Domínguez R 2015 · 5.85 FIP	24	SU	5.85	16.3%	15.6%	3.9%	.365	4.35	16.5%	3.7%	71	-1.50	4.35	139	74
Trey Benton R 2021 · 6.08 FIP	23	SU	6.08	19.7%	36.7%	0.0%	.316	4.26	21.4%	7.5%	122	-1.82	2.92	139	74
Roman Phansalkar R 2022 · 6.38 FIP	24	SU	6.38	13.5%	18.4%	3.8%	.245	4.77	17.4%	4.0%	147	-1.61	4.33	164	74
Yennier Cano R 2019 · 5.94 FIP	25	SU	5.94	17.6%	20.2%	3.2%	.219	3.89	23.6%	12.1%	128	-2.05	2.43	377	74
Joel Benitez R 2022 · 6.28 FIP	22	SU	6.28	18.0%	19.1%	4.2%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	4.28	101	74
Jake Gozzo R 2021 · 7.10 FIP	24	SU	7.10	14.3%	30.2%	2.5%	.200	5.35	15.8%	-0.7%	129	-1.75	4.32	162	73
Andry Rondon R 2018 · 5.58 FIP	22	SU	5.58	18.5%	22.7%	2.1%	.229	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	105	73