Alex Speas
P
St. Paul Saints
Age 28
RHP
6'3" / 205 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 14 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134125vR 115
ERA5.09
FIP5.09
K%22.7%
BB%16.4%
K-BB%6.3%
ROS IP15
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
FB+0.7 (21%)
SL (5%)
CT-1.3 (74%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 4 | 3 | 8 | 37 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 75% | 2.1 | 29.7% | 18.9% | 10.8% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.99 | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 4 | 3 | 8 | 37 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 75% | 2.1 | 29.7% | 18.9% | 10.8% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.98 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 20 | 0 | 29 | 124 | 49 | 21 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 29.2% | 20.0% | 9.3% | 0.7% | 2.20 | 3.57 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 20 | 0 | 29 | 124 | 49 | 21 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 39.5% | 16.9% | 22.6% | 0.8% | 2.20 | 2.33 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 0.5 | 33.3% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 4.51 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 0.5 | 33.3% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 5.10 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 1 | 15 | 86 | 30 | 26 | 2 | 7% | 1.0 | 27.0% | 33.5% | -6.5% | 2.8% | 11.15 | 6.62 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 1 | 15 | 86 | 30 | 26 | 2 | 7% | 1.0 | 34.9% | 30.2% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 11.15 | 5.97 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 52 | 1 | 59 | 257 | 89 | 42 | 2 | 2% | 1.1 | 29.2% | 16.6% | 12.6% | 0.8% | 3.22 | 3.19 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 52 | 1 | 59 | 257 | 89 | 42 | 2 | 2% | 1.1 | 34.6% | 16.3% | 18.3% | 0.8% | 3.22 | 2.66 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 32 | 173 | 47 | 44 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.0% | 27.4% | -3.4% | 3.4% | 11.65 | 6.38 | -0.7 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 32 | 173 | 47 | 44 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.2% | 25.4% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 11.65 | 6.76 | -0.8 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 15 | 0 | 17 | 98 | 20 | 20 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 21.4% | -3.5% | 0.7% | 11.12 | 4.71 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 15 | 0 | 17 | 98 | 20 | 20 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 20.4% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 11.12 | 5.04 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 14 | 0 | 15 | 62 | 14 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 16.4% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 5.09 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 15.9% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 5.09 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 15.9% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 5.09 | 5.14 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 0 | 11 | 51 | 13 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.4% | 19.5% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 6.47 | 5.43 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 194 | 0 | 200 | 899 | 229 | 176 | 35 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.4% | 19.5% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 6.47 | 5.43 | -0.1 | ||
| Career | — | 141 | 7 | 161 | 781 | 207 | 173 | 12 | 5% | 1.1 | 26.5% | 22.2% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 6.11 | 4.53 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 176 | 9 | 200 | 972 | 257 | 216 | 15 | 5% | 1.1 | 26.5% | 22.2% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 6.11 | 4.53 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alex Speas (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.09 | 22.7% | 16.4% | 2.6% | — | 5.14 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 20 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 81 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.83 | 22.7% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.87 | 232 | 80 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 77 |
| Javy Guerra R 2028 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 76 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 76 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.02 | 23.1% | 16.2% | 1.5% | .325 | 4.10 | 16.8% | 6.2% | 103 | +0.08 | 4.02 | 328 | 76 |
| Cole McDonald R 2025 · 5.38 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.38 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 4.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 153 | 76 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.57 | 16.9% | 15.7% | 1.7% | .290 | 3.63 | 21.3% | 12.7% | 181 | -0.94 | 2.96 | 230 | 76 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.45 | 25.6% | 16.8% | 2.5% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 272 | 75 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.63 | 23.3% | 13.6% | 3.2% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 315 | 75 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.44 | 17.9% | 12.5% | 2.3% | .450 | 3.38 | 18.0% | 9.1% | 85 | -1.06 | 3.03 | 115 | 75 |
| Ronald Peña R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 75 |
| Kevin Lenik R 2025 · 4.93 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.93 | 21.7% | 14.9% | 3.2% | .205 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 107 | 74 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.96 | 17.9% | 13.5% | 1.2% | .363 | 3.59 | 21.1% | 11.3% | 181 | -0.37 | 3.07 | 227 | 74 |
| Michael Ynoa R 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.64 | 23.1% | 13.8% | 3.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 142 | 74 |
| Zac Leigh R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.66 | 23.1% | 15.5% | 2.8% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 197 | 74 |
| Caleb Simpson R 2025 · 4.10 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.10 | 24.7% | 17.3% | 1.6% | .189 | 4.23 | 22.4% | 9.7% | 54 | +0.13 | 3.28 | 197 | 74 |
| Dan Hammer R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.08 | 22.4% | 15.5% | 1.7% | .229 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 238 | 73 |
| Morris Austin R 2024 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.05 | 22.3% | 14.8% | 3.6% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 164 | 73 |
| Stevie Branche R 2025 · 5.82 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.82 | 19.8% | 20.5% | 3.3% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 162 | 73 |