Alex Speas — OGILVIE

Alex Speas P St. Paul Saints

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.41

FIP5.41

K%21.2%

BB%17.8%

K-BB%3.4%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

FB+0.7 (21%)

SL (5%)

CT-1.3 (74%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	18	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	4	3	8	37	11	7	0	75%	2.1	29.7%	18.9%	10.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.99	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	4	3	8	37	11	7	0	75%	2.1	29.7%	18.9%	10.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.98	—
2018	20	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	20	0	29	124	49	21	1	0%	1.4	29.2%	20.0%	9.3%	0.9%	2.20	3.64	—
2018	20	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	20	0	29	124	49	21	1	0%	1.4	39.5%	16.9%	22.6%	0.8%	2.20	2.33	—
2019	21	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	2	2	1	6	2	2	0	100%	0.5	33.3%	33.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.51	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	2	2	1	6	2	2	0	100%	0.5	33.3%	33.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	5.10	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	1	15	86	30	26	2	7%	1.0	27.0%	33.5%	-6.5%	3.1%	11.15	6.77	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	1	15	86	30	26	2	7%	1.0	34.9%	30.2%	4.7%	2.3%	11.15	5.97	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	52	1	59	257	89	42	2	2%	1.1	28.4%	15.0%	13.4%	0.9%	3.22	3.08	+1.0
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	52	1	59	257	89	42	2	2%	1.1	28.4%	15.0%	13.4%	0.9%	3.22	3.08	+1.0
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	52	1	59	257	89	42	2	2%	1.1	34.6%	16.3%	18.3%	0.8%	3.22	2.66	+1.3
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	32	173	47	44	6	0%	1.0	22.6%	23.5%	-0.8%	3.3%	11.65	6.00	-0.5
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	32	173	47	44	6	0%	1.0	22.6%	23.5%	-0.8%	3.3%	11.65	6.00	-0.5
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	32	173	47	44	6	0%	1.0	27.2%	25.4%	1.7%	3.5%	11.65	6.76	-0.8
2025	27	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	15	0	17	98	20	20	1	0%	1.1	16.9%	18.4%	-1.4%	0.9%	11.12	4.49	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	15	0	17	98	20	20	1	0%	1.1	16.9%	18.4%	-1.4%	0.9%	11.12	4.49	—
2025	27	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	15	0	17	98	20	20	1	0%	1.1	20.4%	20.4%	0.0%	1.0%	11.12	5.04	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	0	4	20	6	5	1	0%	1.0	30.0%	25.0%	5.0%	5.0%	9.00	7.10	-0.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	MIN	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	21.2%	17.8%	3.4%	2.7%	5.41	5.41	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	MIN	19	0	20	84	18	14	2	0%	1.1	21.2%	17.2%	4.0%	2.8%	5.38	5.43	-0.2
2027	29	MLB CTX	MIN	7	0	7	30	6	5	1	0%	1.0	21.2%	17.2%	4.0%	2.8%	5.38	5.43	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	11	51	13	10	2	0%	1.0	24.6%	20.2%	4.4%	3.7%	6.66	5.61	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		194	0	200	899	229	176	35	0%	1.0	24.6%	20.2%	4.4%	3.7%	6.66	5.61	-2.5
Career	—	MLE		141	7	161	781	201	160	13	5%	1.1	25.8%	20.5%	5.3%	1.6%	6.11	4.40	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		176	9	200	972	251	199	16	5%	1.1	25.8%	20.5%	5.3%	1.6%	6.11	4.40	-2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Speas (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.41	21.2%	17.8%	2.7%	—	5.43	21.2%	4.0%	20	+0.02	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	79
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	78
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	75
Mitchell Stumpo R 2023 · 6.35 FIP	27	SU	6.35	20.6%	20.8%	4.3%	.368	4.77	22.6%	15.5%	34	-1.58	3.97	158	75
Chris Perry R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	26	SU	4.24	21.3%	19.3%	0.9%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	113	74
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	74
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	73
Kevin Lenik R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	27	SU	4.91	21.7%	14.9%	3.2%	.205	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	107	73
Brad Boxberger R 2016 · 4.96 FIP	28	SU	4.96	19.3%	15.8%	2.7%	.282	3.98	29.0%	18.0%	109	-0.98	3.01	363	73
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	72
Jeff Ames R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	28	SU	4.45	25.6%	16.8%	2.5%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	272	72
Jake Haberer R 2023 · 5.10 FIP	28	SU	5.10	16.4%	14.7%	2.8%	.262	5.03	16.2%	-1.4%	15	-0.07	3.46	183	72
Dario Beltre R 2019 · 4.24 FIP	26	SU	4.24	21.4%	17.0%	1.4%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.71	110	72
Brian Glowicki R 2022 · 5.39 FIP	27	SU	5.39	18.2%	15.9%	3.3%	.229	—	—	—	—	—	2.31	189	72
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	72
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	72
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	28	SU	4.43	23.3%	13.6%	2.9%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	315	71
Charles Hall R 2023 · 5.10 FIP	28	SU	5.10	18.0%	19.1%	2.0%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.43	181	71
Zack Leban R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	27	SU	4.82	19.8%	18.8%	1.8%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	123	71
Andrew Schultz R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	26	SU	4.87	18.9%	18.1%	1.9%	.311	3.78	23.0%	9.1%	75	-1.09	3.10	167	70