Oliver Carrillo

LF Asheville Tourists

Age 25 R/R 5'11" / 210 lbs A+ HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	22	A+HOU	236	.223/.289/.419	10	0	27	—	.149/.196/.275
2024	22	AHOU	173	.232/.384/.420	6	0	59	—	.163/.285/.286
2025	23	A+HOU	103	.169/.317/.229	1	1	11	—	.124/.228/.169
2025	23	AHOU	92	.243/.385/.419	3	2	71	—	.192/.308/.308
2027PROJ0% MLB	25	MLBHOU	245	.214/.292/.351	6	3	82	0.0
2028PROJ30% MLB	26	MLBHOU	40	.219/.296/.359	1	0	84	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 A+

BB%80

Chase%80

Z-Con%34

Whiff%30

wOBA24

K%24

CompsEric Wagaman (age 25) · Steffan Wilson (age 25) · Nick Podkul (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 93 proj PA

wRC+†82

AVG/OBP/SLG.213 / .290 / .348

PA93

HR2

K%29

BB%8

ISO137

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	20	ROK	DSL Padres	—	155	125	41	8	2	9	26	35	3	4	0	328	455	640	1.095	312	390	23	17	468	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	225	145	44	8	0	11	66	45	12	4	1	303	547	586	1.133	283	363	20	29	492	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	236	215	48	12	0	10	20	82	0	0	0	223	289	419	708	195	306	35	8	312	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	173	138	32	6	1	6	29	57	5	0	2	232	384	420	804	188	342	33	17	364	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	103	83	14	2	0	1	15	30	3	1	0	169	317	229	546	60	241	29	15	265	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	92	74	18	4	0	3	12	23	5	2	0	243	385	419	804	176	306	25	13	363	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	—	155	134	24	5	1	4	17	43	3	4	0	179	286	321	607	142	230	28	11	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	225	167	31	6	0	6	44	54	12	4	1	186	390	329	719	144	217	24	20	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	236	222	33	7	0	7	13	108	0	0	0	149	196	275	471	126	241	46	6	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	173	147	24	4	1	4	20	76	5	0	2	163	285	286	571	122	284	44	12	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	103	89	11	1	0	1	9	40	3	1	0	124	228	169	396	45	194	39	9	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	92	78	15	3	0	2	8	31	5	2	0	192	308	308	615	115	264	34	9	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	—	155	134	24	5	1	4	17	43	3	4	0	179	286	321	607	142	227	28	11	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL Padres	—	155	125	41	8	2	9	26	35	3	4	0	328	455	640	1.095	312	390	23	17	468	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	225	167	31	6	0	6	44	54	12	4	1	186	390	329	719	144	229	24	20	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	—	225	145	44	8	0	11	66	45	12	4	1	303	547	586	1.133	283	363	20	29	492	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	409	370	57	11	1	11	32	184	5	0	2	154	231	278	509	124	260	45	8	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	409	353	80	18	1	16	49	139	5	0	2	227	329	419	749	193	320	34	12	334	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	195	168	26	4	0	3	16	72	8	3	0	155	260	232	493	77	240	37	8	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	195	157	32	6	0	4	27	53	8	3	0	204	349	318	667	115	272	27	14	311	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	—	155	134	24	5	1	4	17	43	3	4	0	179	286	321	607	142	230	28	11	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	225	167	31	6	0	6	44	54	12	4	1	186	390	329	719	144	217	24	20	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	409	369	57	11	1	11	32	184	5	0	2	154	231	279	510	125	259	45	8	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	195	169	26	4	0	3	16	72	8	3	0	154	260	231	491	77	227	37	8	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	409	369	57	11	1	11	32	184	5	0	2	154	231	279	510	125	259	45	8	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	195	169	26	4	0	3	16	72	8	3	0	154	260	231	491	77	227	37	8	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	HOU	0%	245	219	47	9	1	6	21	72	3	3	1	214	292	351	644	137	285	29	9	290	82	-5	+0	+0	-3	+5	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	HOU	30%	133	119	27	5	1	4	11	39	2	1	0	216	294	356	651	140	285	29	8	292	84	-3	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	HOU	30%	40	36	8	2	0	1	3	12	1	0	0	219	296	359	655	140	290	30	8	294	84	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	40	36	8	2	0	1	3	12	1	0	0	222	300	361	661	139	304	30	8	294	65	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	129	32	0	16	49	195	16	0	0	221	298	357	656	137	302	30	8	294	65	-12	+0	+0	-7	+14	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	1210	1042	182	34	3	30	128	419	31	13	3	175	284	299	583	125	252	35	11	264	65	-4	+0	+0	-2	+5	-0.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	560	98	18	2	16	69	225	17	7	2	175	285	300	585	125	253	35	11	264	65	-13	+1	+0	-7	+14	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Oliver Carrillo (OGILVIE)	25	—	—	—	—	213/290/348	136	285	2	1	29%	8%	82	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Eric Wagaman 2023 · AA	25	39→49	48→50	48→45	45	202/264/339	137	251	16	5	27%	7%	70	-0.9	233/283/375	142	283	15	12	23%	6%	84	+0.2	244/291/387	143	291	14	11	21%	6%	89	+0.3
✕Steffan Wilson 2011 · AA	25	43→47	45→50	46→45	42	216/271/337	121	293	13	8	30%	7%	71	-0.8	207/254/296	89	273	8	7	26%	6%	55	-2.0	198/240/267	69	253	6	4	24%	5%	40	-2.4
✕Nick Podkul 2022 · AA	25	39	44→50	51→50	46	196/271/312	116	260	11	11	28%	8%	66	-1.1	211/300/351	140	290	16	6	31%	9%	86	+0.3	202/300/344	142	280	17	3	32%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Richie Shaffer 2015 · AA	24	39→40	48→55	52→40	43	201/263/348	147	262	15	6	29%	7%	72	-0.7	203/273/365	162	281	19	5	33%	8%	79	-0.2	192/268/351	159	273	20	4	36%	8%	72	-0.6
✕Dustin Geiger 2017 · AA	25	41→48	44→50	47→40	42	207/265/325	118	283	12	7	30%	7%	66	-1.1	190/252/309	119	284	13	5	36%	6%	58	-1.7	163/229/276	113	245	13	1	37%	6%	40	-1.4
✕Zander Wiel 2018 · A	25	39→49	45→50	51→45	42	199/258/328	129	268	12	6	30%	7%	64	-1.3	218/269/369	151	294	16	6	30%	5%	78	-0.3	219/268/381	163	292	17	5	31%	5%	79	-0.2
✕Tristin English 2022 · A	25	37→47	44→50	45→40	38	189/254/296	107	273	12	9	34%	6%	56	-1.9	219/281/341	122	286	14	5	28%	6%	76	-0.4	237/289/370	134	292	15	2	24%	5%	82	+0.0
✕Tyler Marincov 2017 · AA	25	42→41	44→50	45→50	40	209/261/328	118	282	12	10	30%	6%	65	-1.2	198/254/329	131	289	15	10	35%	6%	63	-1.3	177/235/308	132	263	16	10	38%	6%	51	-1.3
✕Jared Schlehuber 2013 · A	24	42	44→50	48→40	41	210/260/328	118	281	12	4	29%	6%	65	-1.2	220/275/340	120	283	12	3	26%	6%	73	-0.6	215/272/335	120	271	13	2	25%	6%	68	-0.6
✕David Fry 2021 · A	25	40→44	46→55	45	43	207/262/337	130	261	14	5	26%	6%	68	-1.0	221/285/363	142	282	15	4	26%	7%	82	+0.0	239/314/400	161	286	18	5	22%	8%	102	+0.9
✕Logan Davidson 2023 · AA	25	41→47	45→50	45→50	42	202/267/319	117	298	13	5	35%	8%	66	-1.1	224/285/350	126	328	13	8	33%	7%	80	-0.2	224/291/348	124	331	12	8	34%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Clint Coulter 2018 · AA	25	42→43	43→50	41→40	40	207/266/318	111	266	10	4	26%	5%	65	-1.2	208/263/336	128	303	13	6	34%	5%	68	-1.0	200/266/338	137	245	16	4	25%	5%	67	-0.4
✕Jim Murphy 2012 · A	26	40→43	47→50	46→30	38	202/266/340	138	290	15	2	34%	6%	71	-0.8	209/268/345	136	283	14	2	30%	6%	72	-0.7	204/266/335	131	270	14	1	29%	7%	68	-0.9
✕Joey Curletta 2018 · AA	24	38→48	48→55	48→45	39	194/256/338	144	288	16	6	37%	7%	66	-1.1	209/277/349	140	296	17	5	33%	8%	77	-0.3	204/275/342	138	281	18	2	33%	8%	75	-0.5
✕Carson Taylor 2024 · AA	25	43→49	43→45	48→40	46	216/280/322	106	281	12	3	27%	8%	71	-0.8	225/303/345	120	295	13	5	26%	9%	85	+0.2	221/306/337	116	289	13	3	26%	10%	83	+0.1
✕Chris Richburg 2011 · A	25	39→36	48→55	48→40	36	205/257/342	137	275	16	4	31%	4%	68	-1.0	210/260/333	123	288	14	5	31%	4%	67	-1.1	198/246/309	111	270	14	3	31%	3%	53	-1.3
✕Weston Wilson 2019 · AA	24	42	43→55	43→55	37	211/256/321	110	290	11	6	30%	5%	61	-1.5	208/267/348	140	268	17	10	28%	7%	72	-0.7	204/282/368	164	260	22	25	30%	9%	82	-0.0
✕Zavier Warren 2024 · AA	25	39	46→45	49→45	45	199/263/327	128	252	14	7	27%	7%	66	-1.1	185/252/289	104	256	11	8	31%	8%	54	-2.0	163/236/254	91	229	10	8	32%	8%	38	-1.9
●Sean Bouchard 2021 · A	25	41→48	44→55	47→50	38	204/257/325	121	300	12	10	35%	6%	63	-1.3	226/300/400	174	304	18	12	30%	9%	97	+1.1	233/330/427	194	302	20	16	28%	11%	113	+1.1
✕Matt Skole 2015 · AA	26	41→40	46→50	48→40	48	205/285/334	129	283	14	5	31%	10%	76	-0.4	202/270/345	143	257	18	3	28%	8%	73	-0.6	191/259/342	151	233	20	2	27%	8%	67	-0.8