David Fry
C Cleveland Guardians| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 28 | MLBCLE | 392 | .263/.358/.448 | 14 | 4 | 122 | 1.0 | |
| 2025 | 29 | MLBCLE | 157 | .171/.229/.363 | 8 | 1 | 64 | -0.0 | |
| 2026 | 30 | AAACLE | 38 | .294/.333/.853 | 6 | 0 | 131 | — | .229/.250/.600 |
| 2026 | 30 | MLBCLE | 214 | .201/.313/.364 | 8 | 0 | 93 | -0.1 | |
| 2027PROJ | 31 | MLBCLE | 172 | .220/.305/.407 | 7 | 1 | 100 | 0.5 | |
| 2028PROJ65% MLB | 32 | MLBCLE | 104 | .213/.297/.391 | 4 | 0 | 93 | -0.0 |
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | Helena Brewers | — | 261 | 222 | 70 | 15 | 2 | 12 | 29 | 42 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 315 | 411 | 563 | 974 | 248 | 339 | 16 | 11 | 421 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 568 | 504 | 130 | 41 | 1 | 17 | 50 | 111 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 258 | 332 | 444 | 777 | 187 | 296 | 20 | 9 | 340 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 56 | 50 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 300 | 375 | 460 | 835 | 160 | 389 | 23 | 9 | 373 | 138 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | — | 60 | 52 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 288 | 383 | 462 | 845 | 173 | 412 | 28 | 12 | 377 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 299 | 262 | 65 | 15 | 2 | 11 | 31 | 71 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 248 | 341 | 447 | 788 | 198 | 300 | 24 | 10 | 351 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | — | 479 | 422 | 108 | 27 | 2 | 17 | 39 | 92 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 256 | 333 | 450 | 784 | 194 | 285 | 19 | 8 | 342 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | INTL | Peoria Javelinas | — | 49 | 42 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 362 | 429 | 790 | 143 | 344 | 22 | 8 | 341 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | — | 113 | 101 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 30 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 238 | 319 | 416 | 734 | 178 | 299 | 27 | 7 | 329 | 108 | +1 | +0 | -5 | +4 | +2 | 0.3 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | — | 117 | 101 | 32 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 317 | 405 | 545 | 950 | 228 | 364 | 18 | 9 | 414 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | — | 392 | 335 | 88 | 18 | 1 | 14 | 42 | 84 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 263 | 358 | 448 | 806 | 185 | 307 | 21 | 11 | 356 | 122 | +10 | +0 | -2 | -7 | +8 | 1.0 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | — | 157 | 146 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 58 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 171 | 229 | 363 | 592 | 192 | 212 | 37 | 6 | 263 | 64 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +3 | -0.0 |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | — | 214 | 184 | 37 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 28 | 59 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 201 | 313 | 364 | 677 | 163 | 248 | 28 | 13 | 309 | 93 | -2 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2026 | 30 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | — | 38 | 34 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 294 | 333 | 853 | 1.186 | 559 | 160 | 13 | 5 | 471 | 131 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 876 | 766 | 174 | 34 | 1 | 34 | 87 | 231 | 17 | 7 | 1 | 227 | 319 | 407 | 726 | 180 | 277 | 26 | 10 | 324 | 106 | +6 | +1 | -8 | -3 | +19 | 1.5 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 22 | ROK MLE | Helena Brewers | — | 261 | 235 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 61 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 221 | 291 | 387 | 678 | 166 | 252 | 23 | 6 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 568 | 519 | 101 | 27 | 1 | 12 | 35 | 152 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 195 | 254 | 320 | 573 | 125 | 238 | 27 | 6 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 60 | 54 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 259 | 333 | 407 | 741 | 148 | 377 | 33 | 8 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 299 | 273 | 55 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 88 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 201 | 271 | 355 | 626 | 154 | 257 | 29 | 7 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 479 | 432 | 98 | 22 | 2 | 12 | 29 | 107 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 227 | 291 | 370 | 661 | 144 | 262 | 22 | 6 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB MLE | Cleveland Guardians | — | 113 | 101 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 30 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 238 | 319 | 416 | 734 | 178 | 299 | 27 | 7 | 328 | 108 | +1 | +0 | -5 | +4 | +2 | 0.3 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 117 | 104 | 28 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 269 | 345 | 442 | 787 | 173 | 311 | 21 | 7 | 329 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB MLE | Cleveland Guardians | — | 392 | 341 | 88 | 18 | 1 | 14 | 38 | 84 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 258 | 348 | 440 | 788 | 182 | 307 | 21 | 10 | 349 | 122 | +10 | +0 | -2 | -7 | +8 | 1.0 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB MLE | Cleveland Guardians | — | 157 | 146 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 58 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 171 | 229 | 363 | 592 | 192 | 212 | 37 | 6 | 263 | 64 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +3 | -0.0 |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB MLE | Cleveland Guardians | — | 214 | 185 | 37 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 27 | 59 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 308 | 362 | 671 | 162 | 248 | 28 | 13 | 305 | 93 | -2 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2026 | 30 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 38 | 35 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 229 | 250 | 600 | 850 | 371 | 130 | 16 | 3 | 362 | 131 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | ROK MLE | Helena Brewers | — | 261 | 235 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 61 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 221 | 291 | 387 | 678 | 166 | 256 | 23 | 6 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | ROK RAW | Helena Brewers | — | 261 | 222 | 70 | 15 | 2 | 12 | 29 | 42 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 315 | 411 | 563 | 974 | 248 | 339 | 16 | 11 | 421 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 624 | 571 | 111 | 29 | 1 | 14 | 38 | 167 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 194 | 253 | 322 | 575 | 128 | 245 | 27 | 6 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 624 | 554 | 145 | 46 | 1 | 18 | 55 | 124 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 262 | 336 | 446 | 782 | 184 | 304 | 20 | 9 | 343 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 359 | 326 | 68 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 26 | 108 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 209 | 281 | 362 | 643 | 153 | 279 | 30 | 7 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 359 | 314 | 80 | 19 | 3 | 12 | 38 | 88 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 255 | 348 | 449 | 797 | 194 | 318 | 25 | 11 | 355 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 528 | 475 | 107 | 24 | 2 | 13 | 32 | 118 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 225 | 290 | 366 | 656 | 141 | 267 | 22 | 6 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 528 | 464 | 120 | 30 | 2 | 18 | 43 | 103 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 259 | 336 | 448 | 784 | 190 | 291 | 20 | 8 | 342 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 230 | 205 | 51 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 55 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 249 | 328 | 424 | 752 | 176 | 306 | 24 | 7 | 329 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 230 | 202 | 56 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 51 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 277 | 362 | 480 | 843 | 203 | 333 | 22 | 8 | 372 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB MLE | Cleveland Guardians | — | 392 | 341 | 88 | 18 | 1 | 14 | 38 | 84 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 258 | 348 | 440 | 788 | 182 | 300 | 21 | 10 | 349 | 122 | +10 | +0 | -2 | -7 | +8 | 1.0 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB RAW | Cleveland Guardians | — | 392 | 335 | 88 | 18 | 1 | 14 | 42 | 84 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 263 | 358 | 448 | 806 | 185 | 307 | 21 | 11 | 356 | 122 | +10 | +0 | -2 | -7 | +8 | 1.0 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB MLE | Cleveland Guardians | — | 157 | 146 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 58 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 171 | 229 | 363 | 592 | 192 | 212 | 37 | 6 | 263 | 64 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +3 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB RAW | Cleveland Guardians | — | 157 | 146 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 58 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 171 | 229 | 363 | 592 | 192 | 212 | 37 | 6 | 263 | 64 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +3 | -0.0 |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 252 | 220 | 45 | 7 | 0 | 12 | 28 | 65 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 300 | 400 | 700 | 195 | 228 | 26 | 11 | 314 | 99 | -0 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 252 | 218 | 47 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 30 | 64 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 316 | 440 | 756 | 225 | 232 | 25 | 12 | 334 | 99 | -0 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2018 | 22 | ROK MLE | Helena Brewers | — | 261 | 236 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 61 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 220 | 291 | 386 | 676 | 165 | 252 | 23 | 6 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 624 | 574 | 111 | 29 | 1 | 14 | 38 | 167 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 193 | 253 | 321 | 574 | 127 | 238 | 27 | 6 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 359 | 323 | 68 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 26 | 108 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 211 | 281 | 365 | 647 | 155 | 277 | 30 | 7 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 528 | 480 | 107 | 24 | 2 | 13 | 32 | 118 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 223 | 290 | 362 | 652 | 140 | 262 | 22 | 6 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 230 | 204 | 51 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 55 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 250 | 328 | 426 | 754 | 176 | 305 | 24 | 7 | 329 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB MLE | Cleveland Guardians | — | 392 | 342 | 88 | 18 | 1 | 14 | 38 | 84 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 257 | 348 | 439 | 787 | 181 | 307 | 21 | 10 | 349 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB MLE | Cleveland Guardians | — | 157 | 145 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 58 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 172 | 229 | 366 | 595 | 193 | 212 | 37 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 252 | 220 | 45 | 7 | 0 | 12 | 28 | 65 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 300 | 400 | 700 | 195 | 230 | 26 | 11 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 28 | MLB MLE | Cleveland Guardians | — | 392 | 342 | 88 | 18 | 1 | 14 | 38 | 84 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 257 | 348 | 439 | 787 | 181 | 307 | 21 | 10 | 349 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB MLE | Cleveland Guardians | — | 157 | 145 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 58 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 172 | 229 | 366 | 595 | 193 | 212 | 37 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 252 | 220 | 45 | 7 | 0 | 12 | 28 | 65 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 300 | 400 | 700 | 195 | 230 | 26 | 11 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB MLE | CLE | 100% | 277 | 246 | 55 | 10 | 1 | 12 | 26 | 70 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 219 | 304 | 407 | 711 | 187 | 255 | 25 | 9 | 316 | 100 | -0 | +0 | -3 | +5 | +6 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB CTX | CLE | 100% | 172 | 152 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 44 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 220 | 305 | 407 | 711 | 187 | 256 | 26 | 9 | 316 | 100 | -0 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +4 | 0.5 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 32 | MLB MLE | CLE | 65% | 160 | 142 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 212 | 297 | 391 | 687 | 178 | 249 | 26 | 9 | 306 | 93 | -1 | +0 | -5 | +3 | +3 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB CTX | CLE | 65% | 104 | 92 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 213 | 297 | 391 | 688 | 178 | 249 | 26 | 10 | 306 | 93 | -1 | +0 | -3 | +2 | +2 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 980 | 858 | 193 | 37 | 1 | 38 | 97 | 258 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 225 | 316 | 403 | 719 | 178 | 273 | 26 | 10 | 323 | 85 | +5 | +1 | -12 | -1 | +21 | 1.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 569 | 129 | 25 | 1 | 25 | 64 | 171 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 227 | 317 | 406 | 723 | 179 | 277 | 26 | 10 | 323 | 85 | +3 | +1 | -8 | -1 | +14 | 1.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3135 | 2813 | 609 | 130 | 9 | 100 | 234 | 801 | 57 | 22 | 7 | 216 | 290 | 376 | 666 | 159 | 263 | 26 | 7 | 293 | 85 | +5 | +1 | -15 | +3 | +26 | 2.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 583 | 127 | 27 | 2 | 21 | 49 | 166 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 218 | 292 | 379 | 671 | 161 | 264 | 26 | 8 | 293 | 85 | +3 | +1 | -8 | +2 | +14 | 1.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAColumbus Clippers · 38 PAwOBA .480 → .362 (−118)K% 13.2% → 15.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.16% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 15.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.962 | 3.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.962 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.34% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.962 | 9.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.962 | 2.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.962 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 20.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.962 | 13.93% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .480 → .362; ISO .559 → .402; BABIP .160 → .130. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAColumbus Clippers · 117 PAwOBA .406 → .329 (−77)K% 17.9% → 21.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.95% | ÷1.008 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.40% | ÷0.994 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 6.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.42% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 3.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.50% | ÷0.963 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 20.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.25% | ÷1.018 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 8.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.25% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 1.27% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.037 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 3.35% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 93, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 102, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .406 → .329; ISO .228 → .170; BABIP .364 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAColumbus Clippers · 479 PAwOBA .337 → .288 (−49)K% 19.2% → 22.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.21% | ÷1.036 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.14% | ÷0.930 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.09% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.79% | ÷0.941 | ×0.930 | ×0.997 | ×1.003 | 18.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.18% | ÷1.040 | ×0.830 | ×0.997 | ×1.003 | 6.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.61% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.997 | ×1.003 | 0.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.15% | ÷1.001 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 3.61% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 88, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 107, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .337 → .288; ISO .194 → .148; BABIP .285 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AABiloxi Shuckers · 299 PAwOBA .342 → .269 (−72)K% 23.7% → 29.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.75% | ÷0.980 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.37% | ÷1.033 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.988 | 6.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.01% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 1.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.37% | ÷0.993 | ×0.940 | ×0.977 | ×0.988 | 17.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.85% | ÷1.124 | ×0.870 | ×0.977 | ×0.988 | 5.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.977 | ×0.988 | 0.93% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.76% | ÷0.929 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 4.77% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 99, 2B 125, 3B 100, K 96, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .342 → .269; ISO .198 → .156; BABIP .300 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAANashville Sounds · 60 PAwOBA .367 → .308 (−59)K% 28.3% → 33.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.33% | ÷1.024 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.67% | ÷0.946 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 8.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.67% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.71% | ÷0.966 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 25.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.43% | ÷1.030 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 9.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.86% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.018 | 2.33% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.86% | ÷0.915 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 2.23% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 93, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 105, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .367 → .308; ISO .173 → .135; BABIP .412 → .377. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AWisconsin Timber Rattlers · 568 PAwOBA .334 → .250 (−84)K% 19.5% → 26.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.54% | ÷0.994 | ×1.360 | — | — | 26.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.63% | ÷0.953 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 6.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.06% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 0.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.07% | ÷0.963 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.980 | 16.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.43% | ÷1.136 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.980 | 7.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.25% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.980 | 0.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.33% | ÷1.022 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 3.32% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 92, 2B 127, 3B 130, K 99, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .334 → .250; ISO .187 → .130; BABIP .296 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ROKHelena Brewers · 261 PAwOBA .414 → .293 (−120)K% 16.1% → 23.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.09% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 23.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.73% | ÷1.000 | ×0.610 | — | ×0.965 | 6.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.68% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 1.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.78% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.992 | ×0.965 | 17.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.992 | ×0.965 | 5.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.992 | ×0.965 | 0.77% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.965 | 4.83% |
Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .414 → .293; ISO .248 → .176; BABIP .339 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .