Dennis Colleran Jr.

P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 225 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #779

Scout OFP40ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	MIX3 levels	44	66	2.85	3.25	27.1%	12.8%	—	K 20.6% · BB 14.6% · FIP 4.26
2026	22	AANorthwest Ark…	47	53	7.52	6.61	19.4%	18.3%	—	K 15.7% · BB 20.1% · FIP 7.07
2027PROJ	23	MLBKC	59	62	6.25	6.25	17.9%	19.0%	-1.1
2028PROJ44% MLB	24	MLBKC	27	28	5.88	5.76	19.5%	16.5%	-0.4
2029PROJ67% MLB	25	MLBKC	41	43	5.58	5.46	20.4%	14.9%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control45Command35FB velo62

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsJonathan Teaney (age 23) · Franklyn German (age 23) · Christian Ruebeck (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 152144vR 136

ERA6.25

FIP6.25

K%17.9%

BB%19.0%

K-BB%-1.1%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5050

CTRL—45

CMD3035

K†4050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	0	66	266	72	34	4	0%	1.5	20.6%	14.6%	6.0%	1.9%	2.85	4.26	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	0	66	266	72	34	4	0%	1.5	20.6%	14.6%	6.0%	1.9%	2.85	4.26	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	44	0	66	266	72	34	4	0%	1.5	27.1%	12.8%	14.3%	1.5%	2.85	3.25	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	47	0	53	263	51	48	11	0%	1.1	15.7%	20.1%	-4.4%	5.0%	7.52	7.07	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	47	0	53	263	51	48	11	0%	1.1	15.7%	20.1%	-4.4%	5.0%	7.52	7.07	—
2026	22	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	47	0	53	263	51	48	11	0%	1.1	19.4%	18.3%	1.1%	4.2%	7.52	6.61	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	KC	59	0	62	262	47	50	9	0%	1.1	17.9%	19.0%	-1.1%	3.4%	6.25	6.25	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	KC	60	0	63	266	52	44	9	0%	1.1	19.5%	16.5%	3.0%	3.3%	5.88	5.76	-0.8
2029	25	MLB MLE	KC	61	0	64	270	55	40	9	0%	1.0	20.4%	14.9%	5.5%	3.3%	5.58	5.46	-0.6
2028	24	MLB CTX	KC	27	0	28	118	23	19	4	0%	1.0	19.5%	16.5%	3.0%	3.3%	5.88	5.76	-0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	KC	41	0	43	182	37	27	6	0%	1.0	20.4%	14.9%	5.5%	3.3%	5.58	5.46	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		67	0	70	297	59	46	10	0%	1.1	20.0%	15.5%	4.5%	3.3%	5.70	5.20	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	168	131	28	0%	1.1	20.0%	15.5%	4.5%	3.3%	5.70	5.20	-1.5
Career	—	MLE		91	0	119	529	96	92	18	0%	1.3	18.2%	17.3%	0.8%	3.5%	4.92	5.66	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		153	0	200	889	162	154	31	0%	1.3	18.2%	17.3%	0.8%	3.5%	4.92	5.66	-2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dennis Colleran Jr. (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.25	17.9%	19.0%	3.4%	—	5.61	19.9%	4.2%	127	-0.64	—	—	—
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	90
Franklyn German R 2003 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	18.9%	2.2%	.313	5.27	13.1%	0.1%	86	+0.10	3.37	152	89
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	87
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	87
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	86
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	86
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	86
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	85
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	85
Tommy DeJuneas R 2019 · 5.15 FIP	23	SU	5.15	20.8%	18.8%	2.6%	.324	5.65	13.7%	-3.9%	51	+0.50	3.93	178	85
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	84
Derrick Turnbow R 2000 · 6.58 FIP	22	SU	6.58	13.8%	19.9%	3.9%	.257	1.43	28.3%	22.6%	15	-5.15	1.43	245	83
Alec Kenilvort R 2016 · 6.44 FIP	23	SU	6.44	15.1%	17.0%	4.5%	.333	3.97	18.3%	9.1%	85	-2.47	2.97	109	83
Luis Ledo R 2018 · 5.51 FIP	23	SU	5.51	17.1%	17.6%	3.0%	.329	3.65	20.8%	8.0%	85	-1.86	3.27	376	83
Johnathan Lavallee R 2023 · 6.17 FIP	23	SU	6.17	17.1%	18.6%	3.9%	.356	4.23	22.9%	9.7%	144	-1.94	3.72	210	82
Noah Takacs R 2024 · 5.77 FIP	22	SU	5.77	12.5%	16.4%	3.0%	.301	5.68	13.4%	-2.3%	91	-0.09	5.25	130	82
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	82
Bernard Jose R 2024 · 6.14 FIP	21	SU	6.14	14.4%	19.0%	3.4%	.309	4.95	18.5%	6.4%	134	-1.19	4.44	222	82
Chay Yeager R 2024 · 5.60 FIP	21	SU	5.60	13.1%	15.7%	2.9%	.261	4.20	22.8%	12.5%	56	-1.40	4.20	110	82
Stephen Nogosek R 2018 · 5.74 FIP	23	SU	5.74	19.4%	18.6%	3.5%	.237	3.01	24.8%	12.8%	85	-2.73	2.56	419	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	63	19.3%	16.8%	1.30	5.90
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*