Chris Cortez — OGILVIE

Chris Cortez P Tri-City Dust Devils

+0.3 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.5 · 2029

ERA4.93

FIP4.93

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%20.2%

BB%14.2%

K-BB%6.0%

IP114

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.5peak

2029

K†5050

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	22	A+	Tri-City Dust Devils	26	26	114	513	114	84	5	17.1%	18.8%	1.2%	4.28	4.71	+0.8
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	A+	Tri-City Dust Devils	2	2	8	39	5	9	1	—	—	—	5.40	—	—
ROS	23	MLB	LAA	21	21	114	480	97	68	12	20.2%	14.2%	2.5%	4.93	4.93	+0.5
2026 Total	23	MLB	LAA	—	—	122	519	102	77	13	19.7%	14.9%	2.5%	4.96	4.59	+1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	LAA	24	24	132	559	118	70	14	21.1%	12.4%	2.5%	4.73	4.64	+1.0
2028	25	MLB	LAA	27	27	146	617	133	70	15	21.5%	11.3%	2.5%	4.56	4.47	+1.4
2029	26	MLB	LAA	28	28	153	647	141	72	16	21.7%	11.1%	2.5%	4.48	4.44	+1.5
2030	27	MLB	LAA	28	28	156	659	143	73	17	21.8%	11.0%	2.6%	4.46	4.44	+1.5
2031	28	MLB	LAA	28	28	156	658	143	73	17	21.7%	11.1%	2.6%	4.47	4.47	+1.5
2032	29	MLB	LAA	28	28	152	643	139	72	17	21.6%	11.2%	2.6%	4.50	4.52	+1.3
2033	30	MLB	LAA	27	27	148	624	133	70	17	21.4%	11.3%	2.7%	4.55	4.58	+1.2
2034	31	MLB	LAA	26	26	142	602	127	69	17	21.1%	11.4%	2.8%	4.61	4.65	+1.1
2035	32	MLB	LAA	25	25	137	578	121	67	16	20.9%	11.5%	2.8%	4.69	4.74	+0.9
2036	33	MLB	LAA	24	24	131	551	113	65	16	20.6%	11.7%	2.9%	4.78	4.84	+0.7
2037	34	MLB	LAA	23	23	124	524	106	62	16	20.2%	11.9%	3.0%	4.88	4.95	+0.5
2038	35	MLB	LAA	21	21	117	494	98	60	16	19.8%	12.2%	3.1%	4.99	5.07	+0.3
2039	36	MLB	LAA	20	20	109	462	90	57	15	19.4%	12.4%	3.3%	5.12	5.20	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			28	28	122	552	93	106	7	16.8%	19.1%	1.3%	4.35	4.82	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—			46	46	200	905	152	174	11	16.8%	19.1%	1.3%	4.35	4.82	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chris Cortez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.93	20.2%	14.2%	2.5%	—	4.51	21.4%	9.9%	432	-0.42	—	—	—
Will Schomberg R 2026 · 4.84 FIP	23	SP-	4.84	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.85	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.85	206	95
Matt Ruppenthal R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.25	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.26	3.75	283	93
Jimmy Endersby R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP-	4.24	20.9%	14.1%	2.0%	.310	5.78	16.4%	3.7%	225	+1.54	2.86	357	92
Nolan DeVos R 2025 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.82	12.3%	-1.5%	12	+1.65	4.17	110	91
Max Bain R 2026 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP-	5.17	20.5%	15.2%	3.4%	.291	6.72	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.55	5.17	174	90
Gabriel Encinas R 2026 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP-	4.28	20.9%	17.0%	1.5%	.291	5.47	17.3%	-10.3%	47	+1.19	2.92	145	90
Zach Fruit R 2027 · 4.28 FIP	24	SP-	4.28	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.07	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.79	4.28	151	90
Kyle Bradish R 2025 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP-	4.55	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.87	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.68	2.16	615	90
Austin Brice R 2026 · 4.61 FIP	23	SP-	4.61	18.5%	13.7%	2.4%	.295	3.70	19.0%	12.0%	222	-0.91	3.45	542	89
Corey Black R 2026 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP-	4.18	22.1%	13.9%	2.1%	.310	3.55	22.1%	6.0%	53	-0.63	3.55	139	88
Zach McCambley R 2026 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.4%	13.6%	3.3%	.277	3.30	25.0%	12.6%	123	-1.69	2.58	314	88
Trace Bright R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	19.9%	13.5%	2.5%	.314	4.43	18.0%	0.6%	99	-0.08	4.24	311	87
R.J. Freure R 2025 · 5.14 FIP	22	SP-	5.14	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	5.83	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.69	5.14	196	87
Brody Hopkins R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	23.2%	13.4%	1.9%	.275	5.49	23.1%	0.8%	18	+1.63	3.46	249	86
J.P. Massey R 2026 · 4.96 FIP	23	SP-	4.96	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.11	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.15	4.70	195	86
Carlos Hernandez R 2025 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP-	4.32	17.4%	15.7%	1.3%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	123	86
Elijah Dale R 2026 · 4.57 FIP	23	SP-	4.57	16.7%	13.6%	2.1%	.239	6.46	18.4%	-1.6%	31	+1.89	4.57	140	85
James McArthur R 2025 · 5.06 FIP	22	SP-	5.06	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.44	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.62	3.54	352	85
Brett Daniels R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	18.5%	12.1%	1.6%	.266	4.47	21.4%	7.9%	152	+0.52	3.95	270	85
Peyton Olejnik R 2025 · 4.19 FIP	22	SP-	4.19	17.1%	13.2%	1.6%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	129	85

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.5	$14M	+$13M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.5	$14M	+$13M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+1.4	$13M	+$12M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.2	$12M	+$10M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.0	$10M	+$7M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+0.9	$5M	+$1M
Totals		$11M		$67M	+$56M