Chris Cortez P Rocket City Trash Pandas
Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 210 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.1 · 2031
2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 134 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146136vR 127
ERA5.64
FIP5.64
K%18.4%
BB%18.6%
K-BB%-0.3%
ROS IP134
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 172 IP
K: -5.4 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)-5KBB: -24.0 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-24BBCONTACT: +0.7 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)+1CONTACTSTAM: +23.3 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+23STAMTotal WAR: -0.56 (172 IP)-0.6WAR
0.00.51.00.30.50.60.50.6+$11M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
OFP40
STUF4550
CTRL3035
CMD3545
K†4550
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2027
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2032
First FA Year   2033
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.3$1M+$0.4M
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.5$2M+$1M
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.6$2M+$1M
2030Arb-1$2M+0.5$1M+$0.4M
2031Arb-2$5M+0.6$2M+$0.0M (cut)
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $4M $8M +$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202522A+Tri-City Dust Devils2626114513114845100%4.417.1%18.8%-1.7%1.2%4.284.71
202522A+Tri-City Dust Devils2626114513114845100%4.422.2%16.4%5.8%1.0%4.283.88
▸ 2026 Season
202623AARocket City Trash Pandas275381883844219%1.416.1%26.4%-10.3%1.3%5.215.80-0.6
ROS23MLBLAA1270134565104105140%1.118.4%18.6%-0.3%2.5%5.645.64-0.4
ROS23MLBLAA303132200%1.018.4%18.6%-0.3%2.4%5.625.62-0.0
2026 TOT23MLBLAA1727531421491618.8%19.8%-1.0%2.1%5.545.68-0.6
2026 FULL23MLBLAA31122018.4%18.6%-0.3%2.4%5.625.23-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202724MLBLAA24241375781149214100%5.719.7%15.9%3.8%2.5%5.315.19+0.3
202825MLBLAA24241395861208215100%5.820.4%14.1%6.4%2.5%5.044.91+0.8
202926MLBLAA23231395861228015100%6.020.8%13.7%7.1%2.5%4.914.85+0.9
203027MLBLAA23231375771207915100%5.920.8%13.6%7.2%2.6%4.884.87+0.8
202724MLBLAA11116025350406100%5.519.7%15.9%3.8%2.4%5.295.17-0.4
202825MLBLAA161693393805510100%5.820.4%14.1%6.4%2.5%5.024.89+0.4
202926MLBLAA1818110464976412100%6.120.8%13.7%7.1%2.5%4.894.83+0.7
203027MLBLAA20201174941036713100%5.820.8%13.6%7.2%2.5%4.864.85+0.8
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career676438316153322294096%5.720.5%14.2%6.4%2.5%4.984.53+3.9
/ 200 IP35342008441741202196%5.720.5%14.2%6.4%2.5%4.984.53+2.0
Career5331152701118146958%2.916.8%20.9%-4.0%1.2%4.515.00+0.7
/ 200 IP70412009241561931158%2.916.8%20.9%-4.0%1.2%4.515.00+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Chris Cortez (OGILVIE) 5.64 18.4%18.6%2.5% 4.98 20.3%5.8%414 -0.66
James McArthur R 2025 · 5.37 FIP 22 SP- 5.37 18.8%15.5%3.5%.304 4.20 20.0%10.7%131 -1.17 3.53 352 75
Ramsey David R 2027 · 5.23 FIP 24 SP- 5.23 18.6%17.4%2.7%.219 7.27 19.1%-0.7%30 +2.04 5.23 107 75
Adrian Chaidez R 2026 · 5.66 FIP 23 SP- 5.66 20.1%15.0%4.3%.281 4.68 19.4%3.1%45 -0.98 4.68 144 74
Gabriel Encinas R 2026 · 4.45 FIP 23 SP- 4.45 20.9%17.0%1.8%.291 5.52 17.3%-10.3%47 +1.07 2.92 145 73
Cobi Johnson R 2026 · 5.34 FIP 23 SP- 5.34 16.0%14.8%3.1%.257 4.62 19.9%1.4%41 -0.72 4.62 140 72
Matt Ruppenthal R 2026 · 4.55 FIP 23 SP- 4.55 19.1%14.3%2.3%.290 4.24 21.4%6.5%143 -0.31 3.72 283 71
Zach Linginfelter R 2027 · 5.72 FIP 24 SP- 5.72 19.1%16.0%4.0%.295 4.94 18.8%-0.6%46 -0.78 3.58 109 71
Keith Weisenberg R 2026 · 4.75 FIP 23 SP- 4.75 15.5%19.0%1.0%.316 3.21 162 70
Yohan Ramírez R 2026 · 4.76 FIP 23 SW 4.76 18.2%14.6%2.5%.243 4.16 27.6%10.7%172 -0.60 3.19 652 70
Ike Buxton R 2026 · 4.93 FIP 23 SP- 4.93 16.8%15.2%2.4%.241 4.68 14.8%-0.6%123 -0.25 4.52 196 70
Nic Swanson R 2026 · 6.33 FIP 23 SP- 6.33 18.5%15.9%5.1%.302 4.59 18.6%7.7%284 -1.74 4.09 414 70
Blake Quinn R 2026 · 5.32 FIP 23 SW 5.32 16.9%15.3%3.1%.328 4.28 17.1%3.3%48 -1.04 4.28 122 70
Jacob Cravey R 2026 · 5.13 FIP 23 SW 5.13 15.7%12.6%3.2%.246 7.57 11.0%-7.2%28 +2.44 5.13 204 70
Luke Anderson R 2026 · 6.07 FIP 23 SW 6.07 17.7%14.7%4.7%.363 5.70 15.4%-11.1%34 -0.37 5.12 130 69
Anyelo Gómez R 2026 · 4.85 FIP 23 SW 4.85 17.1%12.2%3.0%.292 2.69 24.2%15.6%68 -2.16 2.69 145 69
Tyler Brashears R 2026 · 5.54 FIP 23 SW 5.54 12.1%13.0%3.3%.314 3.57 156 69
Jose Dicochea R 2026 · 4.88 FIP 23 SP- 4.88 18.1%14.5%2.7%.306 4.99 16.7%5.0%120 +0.11 4.63 336 69
Grant Ford R 2026 · 5.34 FIP 23 SW 5.34 20.1%13.2%4.1%.300 4.57 19.0%4.5%112 -0.77 3.96 188 68
Ben Casparius R 2026 · 5.20 FIP 23 SP- 5.20 20.6%13.2%4.0%.306 4.44 21.7%10.6%274 -0.76 3.49 364 68
R.J. Freure R 2025 · 5.19 FIP 22 SP- 5.19 21.7%18.5%2.9%.286 5.88 21.4%4.2%107 +0.69 5.19 196 68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION513720.0%15.2%0.975.15
Tyler Chatwood ('21)510419.2%13.3%0.944.48
Tyson Ross ('19)410721.3%10.8%0.844.31
Francisco Liriano ('19)513022.3%11.2%1.094.30
Yovani Gallardo ('18)413215.4%10.2%1.184.97
Tom Koehler ('17)314618.1%10.2%1.244.62
Dakota Hudson ('24)69215.0%11.1%0.914.25