Sawyer Hawks

P Hillsboro Hops

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECTFG #1009

ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	AARI	5	5	1.80	2.30	26.3%	10.5%	—	K 26.3% · BB 10.5% · FIP 2.21
2026	23	MIX2 levels	44	59	4.27	4.44	32.3%	11.8%	—	K 25.2% · BB 13.4% · FIP 5.76
2027PROJ	24	MLBARI	86	90	4.94	4.94	26.4%	13.7%	-0.4
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBARI	37	39	4.80	4.74	26.4%	12.4%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBARI	58	61	4.72	4.68	26.2%	12.0%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff60Command40FB velo60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsAaron Crow (age 24) · Ben Hecht (age 24) · Barrett Loseke (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.94

FIP4.94

K%26.4%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%12.7%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5060

CMD3040

K†6065

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	5	0	5	19	5	2	0	0%	1.0	26.3%	10.5%	15.8%	0.0%	1.80	2.21	—
2025	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	5	0	5	19	5	2	0	0%	1.0	26.3%	10.5%	15.8%	0.0%	1.80	2.21	—
2025	22	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	5	0	5	19	5	2	0	0%	1.0	26.3%	10.5%	15.8%	0.0%	1.80	2.30	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	59	263	85	31	12	0%	1.3	25.2%	13.4%	11.8%	5.6%	4.27	5.76	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	59	263	85	31	12	0%	1.3	25.2%	13.4%	11.8%	5.6%	4.27	5.76	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	59	263	85	31	12	0%	1.3	32.3%	11.8%	20.5%	4.6%	4.27	4.44	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	ARI	86	0	90	380	100	52	14	0%	1.0	26.4%	13.7%	12.7%	3.6%	4.94	4.94	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	ARI	87	0	91	385	101	48	13	0%	1.0	26.4%	12.4%	13.9%	3.5%	4.80	4.74	-0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	ARI	87	0	91	385	101	46	13	0%	1.0	26.2%	12.0%	14.2%	3.5%	4.72	4.68	-0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	ARI	85	0	90	379	99	45	13	0%	1.1	26.0%	11.9%	14.1%	3.5%	4.70	4.70	-0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	ARI	83	0	87	367	95	44	13	0%	1.0	25.8%	11.9%	13.9%	3.6%	4.74	4.77	-0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	ARI	79	0	83	351	90	43	13	0%	1.1	25.6%	12.2%	13.4%	3.7%	4.84	4.90	-0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	ARI	74	0	78	330	90	38	13	0%	1.1	27.2%	11.7%	15.5%	3.9%	4.82	4.81	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	ARI	37	0	39	165	43	20	6	0%	1.1	26.4%	12.4%	13.9%	3.5%	4.80	4.74	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	ARI	58	0	61	258	68	31	9	0%	1.1	26.2%	12.0%	14.2%	3.5%	4.72	4.68	-0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	ARI	66	0	69	291	76	35	10	0%	1.0	26.0%	11.9%	14.1%	3.5%	4.70	4.70	-0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	ARI	70	0	73	308	79	37	11	0%	1.0	25.8%	11.9%	13.9%	3.6%	4.74	4.77	-0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	ARI	70	0	73	308	79	38	11	0%	1.0	25.6%	12.2%	13.4%	3.7%	4.84	4.90	-0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	ARI	67	0	70	296	80	34	12	0%	1.0	27.2%	11.7%	15.5%	3.9%	4.82	4.81	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		367	0	385	1626	426	195	59	0%	1.0	26.2%	12.0%	14.2%	3.6%	4.77	4.40	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	221	101	31	0%	1.1	26.2%	12.0%	14.2%	3.6%	4.77	4.40	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		49	0	64	282	71	37	15	0%	1.3	25.2%	13.2%	12.1%	5.2%	4.08	5.52	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		153	0	200	881	222	116	46	0%	1.3	25.2%	13.2%	12.1%	5.2%	4.08	5.52	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sawyer Hawks (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	26.4%	13.7%	3.6%	—	4.71	26.2%	14.1%	272	-0.23	—	—	—
Aaron Crow R 2011 · 4.20 FIP	24	SU	4.20	24.4%	10.9%	3.2%	.287	4.16	20.1%	11.4%	172	-0.04	2.88	234	86
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	85
Barrett Loseke R 2021 · 4.64 FIP	24	SU	4.64	26.2%	12.8%	3.9%	.282	4.63	22.2%	11.8%	86	-0.01	4.42	152	84
Steven Wilson R 2019 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	27.2%	10.7%	3.3%	.271	3.81	29.3%	19.9%	92	-0.18	3.64	331	84
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.47	22.1%	12.1%	189	-0.47	3.35	250	84
Lucas Wepf R 2024 · 3.80 FIP	24	SU	3.80	27.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.304	4.09	25.4%	11.8%	80	+0.29	2.90	195	83
Chris Mauloni R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	23	SU	4.82	25.6%	11.5%	4.4%	.333	5.67	17.6%	1.4%	71	+0.85	4.82	129	83
Andrew McInvale R 2021 · 4.92 FIP	24	SU	4.92	26.4%	16.3%	3.6%	.278	5.66	20.3%	5.0%	58	+0.74	4.92	103	83
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	82
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.74	25.9%	15.2%	147	-0.60	2.97	194	82
Todd Van Steensel R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	22.5%	11.6%	2.0%	.294	3.31	19.3%	6.5%	157	-0.48	2.87	223	82
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	82
Grant Gavin R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	25.6%	11.4%	3.5%	.289	4.40	23.5%	11.2%	130	+0.11	2.14	376	81
Matt Keating R 2024 · 5.20 FIP	23	SU	5.20	22.7%	13.1%	4.3%	.224	4.15	23.5%	8.8%	88	-1.05	3.38	223	80
Andre Granillo R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	24.5%	13.7%	2.7%	.228	4.18	22.3%	13.4%	120	-0.04	3.06	321	80
J.B. Wendelken R 2016 · 4.46 FIP	23	SU	4.46	24.6%	12.2%	3.5%	.356	3.66	26.2%	17.3%	137	-0.80	3.08	393	80
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	80
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	24	SU	4.59	24.1%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	80
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	80
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	87	26.2%	12.3%	1.39	4.79
Dick Littlefield ('50-'58, -1 WAR*)	3.8	109	25.7%*	11.2%*	1.32*	4.96*
Lou North ('13-'24, -2 WAR*)	2.3	93	26.2%*	12.2%*	1.38*	5.20*
Mel Queen ('42-'52, -2 WAR*)	2.8	93	25.4%*	11.9%*	1.58*	5.33*
Dinelson Lamet ('24)	1.8	61	29.9%	10.7%	1.30	4.63
Caleb Smith ('22)	2.2	112	24.9%	11.3%	1.69	4.55
Michael Kopech ('25)	2.1	103	25.8%	12.5%	1.45	4.14