Grant Gavin
P
Louisville Bats
Age 31
RHP
6'2" / 185 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 13 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 105
ERA4.60
FIP4.60
K%21.4%
BB%10.8%
K-BB%10.7%
ROS IP14
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | AZL Royals | 13 | 4 | 49 | 198 | 47 | 5 | 0 | 31% | 3.8 | 16.1% | 3.2% | 13.0% | 0.0% | 2.01 | 2.14 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | AZL Royals | 13 | 4 | 49 | 198 | 47 | 5 | 0 | 31% | 3.8 | 23.7% | 2.5% | 21.2% | 0.0% | 2.01 | 1.50 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 65 | 262 | 77 | 24 | 2 | 0% | 1.8 | 22.1% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 1.2% | 1.65 | 3.25 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 65 | 262 | 77 | 24 | 2 | 0% | 1.8 | 29.4% | 9.2% | 20.2% | 0.8% | 1.65 | 2.24 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 54 | 221 | 61 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.6 | 21.8% | 12.6% | 9.1% | 5.3% | 3.19 | 5.74 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 54 | 221 | 61 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.6 | 27.6% | 11.3% | 16.3% | 3.2% | 3.19 | 3.92 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 41 | 0 | 52 | 231 | 73 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.6% | 11.4% | 14.2% | 3.9% | 3.61 | 4.52 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 41 | 0 | 52 | 231 | 73 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 31.6% | 10.4% | 21.2% | 2.6% | 3.61 | 3.18 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 48 | 0 | 74 | 316 | 92 | 33 | 11 | 0% | 1.5 | 25.6% | 11.0% | 14.7% | 3.6% | 4.36 | 4.32 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 48 | 0 | 74 | 316 | 92 | 33 | 11 | 0% | 1.5 | 29.1% | 10.4% | 18.7% | 3.5% | 4.36 | 3.88 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 1 | 56 | 261 | 63 | 35 | 6 | 2% | 1.2 | 20.8% | 14.2% | 6.6% | 2.3% | 4.82 | 4.39 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 1 | 56 | 261 | 63 | 35 | 6 | 2% | 1.2 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 10.7% | 2.3% | 4.82 | 4.12 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 6 | 36 | 157 | 31 | 19 | 2 | 50% | 3.0 | 14.3% | 16.2% | -1.9% | 1.5% | 4.50 | 4.78 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 6 | 36 | 157 | 31 | 19 | 2 | 50% | 3.0 | 19.7% | 12.1% | 7.6% | 1.3% | 4.50 | 3.68 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 13 | 0 | 14 | 58 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 4.60 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.79 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 7 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.41 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 190 | 82 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.41 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 230 | 11 | 387 | 1646 | 355 | 186 | 44 | 5% | 1.7 | 21.6% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 3.42 | 4.16 | +5.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 119 | 6 | 200 | 851 | 183 | 96 | 23 | 5% | 1.7 | 21.6% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 3.42 | 4.16 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Grant Gavin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.60 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 2.8% | — | 4.79 | 21.2% | 10.2% | 20 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 89 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 81 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.18 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 2.2% | .276 | 3.35 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.83 | 3.35 | 129 | 81 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 80 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 79 |
| Logan Kensing R 2028 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 79 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.85 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.7% | .283 | 4.58 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 79 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.69 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .244 | 4.74 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +1.05 | 3.69 | 521 | 78 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.23 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 108 | 76 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 76 |
| Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 76 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 76 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.57 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 224 | 75 |
| Bryan Morris R 2025 · 3.60 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.60 | 16.0% | 9.6% | 1.2% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 102 | 75 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 75 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 75 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 74 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.65 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 101 | 74 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.9% | 1.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 227 | 74 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.66 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 3.6% | .270 | 4.93 | 19.3% | 9.7% | 63 | +0.27 | 2.90 | 227 | 74 |