Grant Gavin
P
Louisville Bats
+0.1
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'2" / 185 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.60
FIP4.60
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.4%
BB%10.8%
K-BB%10.7%
IP20
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | AZL Royals | 13 | 4 | 49 | 198 | 47 | 5 | 0 | 16.1% | 3.2% | 0.0% | 2.01 | 2.14 | +1.6 |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 36 | 0 | 65 | 262 | 77 | 24 | 2 | 22.1% | 10.7% | 1.0% | 1.65 | 3.14 | +1.4 |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 34 | 0 | 54 | 221 | 61 | 25 | 7 | 21.8% | 12.6% | 4.4% | 3.19 | 5.27 | -0.2 |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 41 | 0 | 52 | 231 | 73 | 24 | 6 | 25.6% | 11.4% | 3.5% | 3.61 | 4.30 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 48 | 0 | 74 | 316 | 92 | 33 | 11 | 25.6% | 11.0% | 3.7% | 4.36 | 4.37 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 46 | 1 | 56 | 261 | 63 | 35 | 6 | 20.8% | 14.2% | 2.5% | 4.82 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 12 | 6 | 36 | 157 | 31 | 19 | 2 | 14.3% | 16.2% | 1.7% | 4.50 | 4.85 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 18 | 9 | 2 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 4.60 | 4.60 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 18 | 9 | 2 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 4.66 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 230 | 11 | 387 | 1646 | 355 | 186 | 41 | 21.6% | 11.3% | 2.5% | 3.42 | 4.08 | +5.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 119 | 6 | 200 | 851 | 183 | 96 | 21 | 21.6% | 11.3% | 2.5% | 3.42 | 4.08 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Grant Gavin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.60 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.66 | 21.4% | 10.6% | 20 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 95 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 83 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.83 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .283 | 4.53 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.30 | 2.93 | 176 | 82 |
| Logan Kensing R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 81 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 80 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.33 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 108 | 79 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.01 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 1.9% | .276 | 3.38 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.63 | 3.38 | 129 | 79 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 79 |
| Zack Segovia R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 78 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.45 | 16.4% | 8.4% | 1.2% | .308 | 4.77 | 19.3% | 7.3% | 90 | +1.32 | 3.45 | 170 | 78 |
| Bryan Morris R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.68 | 16.0% | 9.6% | 1.3% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 102 | 78 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 77 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 77 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 77 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 224 | 76 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 76 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 76 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .246 | 3.65 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.24 | 1.69 | 468 | 76 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 75 |
| Jeff Manship R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 3.3% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 114 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.