Grant Gavin — OGILVIE

Grant Gavin P Louisville Bats

Age 31 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.09

FIP5.09

K%17.2%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%5.5%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	AZL Royals	13	4	49	198	47	5	0	31%	3.8	16.1%	3.2%	13.0%	0.0%	2.01	2.14	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	AZL Royals	13	4	49	198	47	5	0	31%	3.8	23.7%	2.5%	21.2%	0.0%	2.01	1.50	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	65	262	77	24	2	0%	1.8	22.1%	10.7%	11.4%	1.1%	1.65	3.17	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	65	262	77	24	2	0%	1.8	29.4%	9.2%	20.2%	0.8%	1.65	2.24	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	54	221	61	25	7	0%	1.6	21.8%	12.6%	9.1%	4.4%	3.19	5.25	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	54	221	61	25	7	0%	1.6	27.6%	11.3%	16.3%	3.2%	3.19	3.92	—
2019	24	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	41	0	52	231	73	24	6	0%	1.3	25.6%	11.4%	14.2%	3.5%	3.61	4.29	—
2019	24	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	41	0	52	231	73	24	6	0%	1.3	31.6%	10.4%	21.2%	2.6%	3.61	3.18	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	48	0	74	316	92	33	11	0%	1.5	25.6%	11.0%	14.7%	3.7%	4.36	4.37	—
2021	26	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	48	0	74	316	92	33	11	0%	1.5	29.1%	10.4%	18.7%	3.5%	4.36	3.88	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	56	261	63	35	6	2%	1.2	20.8%	14.2%	6.6%	2.4%	4.82	4.45	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	1	56	261	63	35	6	2%	1.2	24.1%	13.4%	10.7%	2.3%	4.82	4.12	—
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	6	36	157	31	19	2	50%	3.0	13.5%	13.8%	-0.4%	1.7%	4.50	4.64	—
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	6	36	157	31	19	2	50%	3.0	13.5%	13.8%	-0.4%	1.7%	4.50	4.64	—
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	6	36	157	31	19	2	50%	3.0	19.7%	12.1%	7.6%	1.3%	4.50	3.68	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	CIN	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	17.2%	11.8%	5.5%	2.9%	5.09	5.09	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	CIN	19	0	20	84	15	10	3	0%	1.1	17.4%	11.9%	5.5%	3.1%	5.14	5.23	-0.2
2027	32	MLB CTX	CIN	7	0	7	30	5	4	1	0%	1.0	17.4%	11.9%	5.5%	3.1%	5.14	5.23	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	5	4	1	0%	1.1	17.4%	11.9%	5.5%	3.1%	5.14	4.85	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	136	109	27	0%	1.1	17.4%	11.9%	5.5%	3.1%	5.14	4.85	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		230	11	387	1646	354	182	41	5%	1.7	21.5%	11.1%	10.4%	2.5%	3.42	4.06	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		119	6	200	851	183	94	21	5%	1.7	21.5%	11.1%	10.4%	2.5%	3.42	4.06	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Grant Gavin (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.09	17.2%	11.8%	2.9%	—	5.23	17.4%	5.5%	20	+0.14	—	—	—
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	84
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	81
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	81
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	80
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	79
Luis Angel Daniel R 2016 · 4.56 FIP	31	SU	4.56	13.4%	8.9%	2.7%	.286	4.16	9.8%	0.3%	53	-0.40	4.16	156	79
Dustin McGowan R 2015 · 5.32 FIP	33	SU	5.32	15.0%	14.5%	3.0%	.300	4.23	20.9%	13.0%	145	-1.09	3.82	208	79
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	78
Ivan Zavala R 2017 · 5.02 FIP	30	SU	5.02	12.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.286	5.15	12.7%	5.3%	61	+0.13	4.27	209	78
Ryan Kelly R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	31	SU	4.33	14.7%	7.2%	2.8%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	131	76
Francisco Rodriguez R 2015 · 4.79 FIP	32	SU	4.79	11.1%	8.1%	2.9%	.281	4.04	12.1%	4.4%	139	-0.75	3.16	273	75
Fredy Quintero R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	31	SU	4.62	17.2%	13.7%	2.2%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	241	75
Dalier Hinojosa R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	30	SU	4.30	18.7%	12.6%	2.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	104	74
Jaye Chapman R 2017 · 5.51 FIP	30	SU	5.51	13.0%	13.4%	3.3%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.25	150	74
Fernando Villalobos R 2016 · 4.00 FIP	31	SU	4.00	12.3%	8.6%	1.6%	.305	4.70	10.6%	2.6%	55	+0.70	4.00	152	74
Vin Mazzaro R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	29	SU	4.04	13.6%	10.2%	1.5%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	126	74
Tanner Scheppers R 2017 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	15.7%	6.7%	4.1%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	101	74
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	74
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	73
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	73