Andre Granillo
P
Washington Nationals
+0.3
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 26
RHP
6'4" / 250 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA4.42
FIP4.23
xFIP8.05
SIERA8.20
K%25.0%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%14.7%
IP64
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
K†6060
FB Velo
p5194.6
Whiff%
p9031.5%
K%
p3419.8%
xwOBA vs
p550.307
SI (13%)
CH (3%)
FB (38%)
SL-2.0 (59%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 14 | 0 | 18 | 77 | 23 | 9 | 1 | 22.1% | 13.8% | 2.0% | 1.50 | 4.08 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 39 | 0 | 52 | 230 | 82 | 28 | 5 | 27.2% | 14.6% | 3.0% | 4.13 | 4.32 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 53 | 0 | 68 | 296 | 89 | 37 | 8 | 24.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | 4.74 | 4.39 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 48 | 0 | 65 | 276 | 80 | 40 | 7 | 24.9% | 15.4% | 2.7% | 3.88 | 4.41 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 43 | 0 | 63 | 252 | 76 | 21 | 5 | 27.4% | 8.6% | 2.3% | 2.43 | 3.14 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 7 | 0 | 6 | 34 | 3 | 9 | 1 | — | — | — | 17.47 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | WSH | 21 | — | 21 | 90 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 25.1% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.23 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 27 | 124 | 25 | 18 | 4 | 20.6% | 14.8% | 2.8% | 7.17 | 3.34 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 62 | 29 | 8 | 23.0% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 4.59 | 4.52 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 63 | 264 | 61 | 29 | 8 | 23.0% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 4.55 | 4.53 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 58 | 28 | 8 | 22.5% | 10.8% | 3.0% | 4.57 | 4.59 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 59 | — | 59 | 251 | 55 | 27 | 8 | 22.0% | 10.9% | 3.1% | 4.63 | 4.68 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 52 | 27 | 8 | 21.4% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 4.72 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 55 | — | 55 | 232 | 48 | 26 | 7 | 20.8% | 11.2% | 3.2% | 4.83 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 52 | — | 52 | 222 | 45 | 25 | 7 | 20.1% | 11.3% | 3.3% | 4.95 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 50 | — | 50 | 211 | 41 | 24 | 7 | 19.4% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 5.08 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 37 | 23 | 7 | 18.7% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 5.22 | 5.32 | -0.2 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 33 | 22 | 7 | 17.9% | 12.0% | 3.6% | 5.38 | 5.48 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 204 | 0 | 272 | 1165 | 294 | 157 | 32 | 25.2% | 13.5% | 2.7% | 3.93 | 4.17 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 150 | 0 | 200 | 856 | 216 | 115 | 24 | 25.2% | 13.5% | 2.7% | 3.93 | 4.17 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Andre Granillo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.23 | 25.1% | 10.4% | 2.8% | — | 4.55 | 22.8% | 12.0% | 187 | +0.32 | — | — | — |
| Sam Wolff R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.36 | 26.6% | 8.0% | 2.7% | .291 | 2.98 | 24.1% | 13.3% | 63 | -0.38 | 2.67 | 178 | 89 |
| Neil Ramírez R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.10 | 25.0% | 10.0% | 1.5% | .289 | 4.77 | 28.3% | 17.6% | 151 | +1.67 | 3.10 | 220 | 86 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 84 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.32 | 26.5% | 11.2% | 3.7% | .299 | 4.62 | 23.6% | 11.9% | 58 | +0.30 | 3.86 | 134 | 84 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 83 |
| Jonathan Aro R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.71 | 25.3% | 6.9% | 3.4% | .252 | 3.57 | 14.6% | 8.1% | 108 | -0.14 | 2.57 | 323 | 83 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2027 · 3.21 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.21 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.20 | 23.6% | 14.6% | 81 | -0.01 | 2.42 | 125 | 83 |
| Kyle Winkler R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.74 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .234 | 3.53 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 43 | -0.21 | 2.96 | 114 | 82 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 82 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.99 | 26.8% | 9.8% | 3.5% | .289 | 3.80 | 20.9% | 11.9% | 66 | -0.19 | 3.11 | 166 | 82 |
| Simon Castro R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.26 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .320 | 3.48 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.22 | 3.07 | 185 | 81 |
| Spencer Patton R 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.49 | 26.8% | 9.6% | 2.6% | .295 | 2.83 | 30.3% | 18.1% | 57 | -0.66 | 2.83 | 239 | 80 |
| Nick Rumbelow R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.53 | 25.3% | 8.9% | 4.5% | .281 | 5.60 | 15.5% | 4.3% | 32 | +1.07 | 2.03 | 164 | 80 |
| Tucker Healy R 2026 · 2.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 2.83 | 30.4% | 10.5% | 1.8% | .294 | 4.61 | 16.9% | 5.8% | 67 | +1.78 | 2.83 | 174 | 79 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2028 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 79 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.86 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .280 | 4.05 | 28.5% | 17.2% | 107 | +0.19 | 3.02 | 363 | 79 |
| Peter Strzelecki R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 26.5% | 8.3% | 3.2% | .325 | 3.11 | 26.5% | 16.8% | 170 | -0.59 | 2.87 | 328 | 79 |
| Cory Mazzoni R 2025 · 2.62 FIP | 25 | SU | 2.62 | 24.9% | 8.5% | 1.0% | .374 | 3.04 | 23.4% | 18.7% | 59 | +0.42 | 0.78 | 101 | 79 |
| Alex Powers R 2026 · 2.95 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.95 | 25.8% | 6.4% | 2.2% | .257 | 3.54 | 26.5% | 16.8% | 98 | +0.59 | 2.81 | 264 | 79 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.86 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .242 | 2.97 | 25.1% | 15.7% | 62 | -0.89 | 2.97 | 167 | 78 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 0.442 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2032
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.2 | $0.8M | +$0.0M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $5M | $6M | +$0.9M | ||