Paul Witt
C Harrisburg Senators| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 25 | AAA/AWSH | 265 | .221/.294/.413 | 10 | 1 | 44 | — | .175/.226/.321 |
| 2024 | 26 | AA/A+WSH | 256 | .198/.262/.375 | 9 | 0 | 31 | — | .163/.206/.300 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA/AAWSH | 63 | .189/.306/.302 | 1 | 0 | 43 | — | .178/.274/.283 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 29 | MLBWSH | 2 | .216/.281/.343 | 0 | 0 | 76 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ23% MLB | 30 | MLBWSH | 34 | .215/.279/.339 | 1 | 0 | 74 | -0.0 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 53 | 53 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 132 | 132 | 170 | 302 | 38 | 163 | 19 | 0 | 134 | -45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 65 | 55 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 145 | 254 | 182 | 436 | 36 | 170 | 15 | 11 | 209 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 31 | 29 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 276 | 323 | 448 | 771 | 172 | 350 | 26 | 3 | 342 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 20 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 450 | 600 | 1.050 | 333 | 333 | 25 | 15 | 456 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | ROK | FCL Nationals | — | 75 | 61 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 295 | 411 | 443 | 854 | 148 | 370 | 19 | 12 | 376 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 23 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 333 | 333 | 667 | 111 | 308 | 30 | 9 | 283 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 242 | 217 | 48 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 20 | 40 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 221 | 290 | 419 | 710 | 198 | 226 | 17 | 8 | 312 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 181 | 169 | 34 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 44 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 201 | 242 | 396 | 638 | 195 | 220 | 24 | 4 | 276 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 75 | 63 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 311 | 317 | 628 | 127 | 239 | 23 | 12 | 289 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 19 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 294 | 368 | 529 | 898 | 235 | 308 | 16 | 11 | 393 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 44 | 36 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 139 | 279 | 194 | 474 | 56 | 161 | 11 | 11 | 233 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 53 | 53 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 113 | 113 | 151 | 264 | 38 | 139 | 26 | 0 | 101 | -45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 65 | 58 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 121 | 190 | 155 | 346 | 34 | 144 | 22 | 6 | 162 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 31 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 258 | 345 | 603 | 138 | 290 | 35 | 3 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 20 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 400 | 562 | 963 | 312 | 284 | 35 | 10 | 332 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | ROK MLE | FCL Nationals | — | 75 | 65 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 215 | 301 | 338 | 640 | 123 | 266 | 27 | 7 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 23 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 286 | 316 | 602 | 105 | 264 | 39 | 4 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 242 | 227 | 39 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 56 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 172 | 220 | 322 | 542 | 150 | 183 | 23 | 5 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 181 | 172 | 29 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 53 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 169 | 197 | 320 | 516 | 151 | 196 | 29 | 3 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 75 | 67 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 149 | 230 | 254 | 483 | 104 | 189 | 31 | 7 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 19 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 278 | 316 | 500 | 816 | 222 | 273 | 16 | 5 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 44 | 37 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 135 | 256 | 189 | 445 | 54 | 151 | 14 | 9 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 118 | 111 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 108 | 147 | 135 | 282 | 27 | 141 | 24 | 3 | 135 | -23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 118 | 108 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 139 | 198 | 176 | 374 | 37 | 167 | 17 | 6 | 176 | -23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | ROK MLE | 3 teams | — | 126 | 110 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 38 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 298 | 336 | 635 | 127 | 300 | 30 | 6 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | ROK RAW | 3 teams | — | 126 | 105 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 395 | 467 | 862 | 181 | 360 | 21 | 10 | 380 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 265 | 246 | 43 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 64 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 175 | 225 | 321 | 546 | 146 | 198 | 24 | 5 | 234 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 265 | 235 | 52 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 47 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 221 | 294 | 413 | 707 | 191 | 232 | 18 | 8 | 309 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 256 | 239 | 38 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 76 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 159 | 202 | 293 | 495 | 134 | 196 | 30 | 4 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 256 | 232 | 46 | 14 | 0 | 9 | 17 | 61 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 198 | 262 | 375 | 637 | 177 | 226 | 24 | 7 | 280 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 63 | 55 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 274 | 291 | 565 | 109 | 205 | 16 | 8 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 63 | 53 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 189 | 306 | 302 | 608 | 113 | 205 | 13 | 11 | 281 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 118 | 112 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 107 | 147 | 134 | 280 | 27 | 142 | 24 | 3 | 135 | -23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | ROK MLE | 3 teams | — | 126 | 111 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 38 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 298 | 333 | 632 | 126 | 275 | 30 | 6 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 265 | 247 | 43 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 64 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 174 | 225 | 320 | 545 | 146 | 190 | 24 | 5 | 234 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 256 | 241 | 38 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 76 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 158 | 202 | 290 | 493 | 133 | 194 | 30 | 4 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 63 | 56 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 179 | 274 | 286 | 560 | 107 | 188 | 16 | 8 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 256 | 241 | 38 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 76 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 158 | 202 | 290 | 493 | 133 | 194 | 30 | 4 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 63 | 56 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 179 | 274 | 286 | 560 | 107 | 188 | 16 | 8 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | WSH | 2% | 200 | 182 | 39 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 51 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 216 | 281 | 344 | 625 | 128 | 272 | 26 | 7 | 281 | 76 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | 0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | WSH | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 281 | 343 | 624 | 127 | 271 | 50 | 0 | 280 | 76 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | WSH | 23% | 151 | 137 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 38 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 215 | 279 | 340 | 619 | 125 | 271 | 25 | 7 | 278 | 74 | -5 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | WSH | 23% | 34 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 215 | 279 | 339 | 618 | 124 | 270 | 26 | 6 | 278 | 74 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 34 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 235 | 312 | 548 | 125 | 227 | 26 | 6 | 278 | 44 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 612 | 114 | 19 | 0 | 19 | 38 | 172 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 186 | 234 | 310 | 544 | 124 | 226 | 26 | 6 | 278 | 44 | -20 | +0 | -9 | +12 | +14 | -0.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1084 | 994 | 177 | 43 | 4 | 23 | 58 | 281 | 18 | 6 | 2 | 178 | 236 | 299 | 535 | 121 | 220 | 26 | 5 | 233 | 44 | -8 | +0 | -2 | +5 | +6 | 0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 596 | 106 | 26 | 2 | 14 | 35 | 168 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 178 | 237 | 299 | 535 | 121 | 220 | 26 | 5 | 233 | 44 | -19 | +1 | -5 | +12 | +14 | 0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAHarrisburg Senators · 44 PAwOBA .228 → .197 (−31)K% 11.4% → 13.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.36% | ÷0.997 | ×1.220 | — | — | 13.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.36% | ÷0.967 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 7.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.55% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 3.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 9.68% | ÷1.009 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.968 | 9.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.45% | ÷0.887 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.968 | 6.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.913 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.963 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 102, 2B 77, 3B 83, K 99, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .228 → .197; ISO .056 → .055; BABIP .161 → .151. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAARochester Red Wings · 19 PAwOBA .383 → .313 (−70)K% 15.8% → 18.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.79% | ÷1.028 | ×1.200 | — | — | 18.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.53% | ÷0.978 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 7.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷0.987 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.992 | 20.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.992 | 5.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.960 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 5.17% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 97, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 106, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .383 → .313; ISO .235 → .177; BABIP .308 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAHarrisburg Senators · 181 PAwOBA .269 → .217 (−52)K% 24.3% → 29.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.31% | ÷1.008 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.42% | ÷1.051 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 2.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.55% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.60% | ÷1.010 | ×0.970 | ×0.988 | ×0.978 | 12.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.20% | ÷0.964 | ×0.860 | ×0.988 | ×0.978 | 6.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.915 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.40% | ÷0.990 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 4.93% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 102, 2B 93, 3B 83, K 102, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .269 → .217; ISO .195 → .151; BABIP .220 → .196. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 75 PAwOBA .286 → .206 (−80)K% 22.7% → 30.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.67% | ÷0.974 | ×1.310 | — | — | 30.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.00% | ÷1.015 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.958 | 6.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.67% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.958 | 1.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.04% | ÷1.008 | ×0.870 | ×0.980 | ×0.958 | 10.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.87% | ÷0.942 | ×0.780 | ×0.980 | ×0.958 | 8.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.984 | ×0.850 | ×0.980 | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.17% | ÷1.016 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.958 | 1.80% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 102, 2B 88, 3B 97, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .286 → .206; ISO .127 → .100; BABIP .239 → .189. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AFredericksburg Nationals · 242 PAwOBA .305 → .231 (−74)K% 16.5% → 23.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.53% | ÷0.978 | ×1.360 | — | — | 23.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.26% | ÷1.126 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.960 | 4.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.83% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.960 | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.69% | ÷1.016 | ×0.920 | ×0.982 | ×0.960 | 12.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.21% | ÷1.065 | ×0.830 | ×0.982 | ×0.960 | 4.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.56% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.982 | ×0.960 | 0.42% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.65% | ÷0.917 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.960 | 4.73% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 103, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 96, BB 125 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.0 → −4.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .305 → .231; ISO .198 → .156; BABIP .226 → .183. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAARochester Red Wings · 23 PAwOBA .302 → .264 (−38)K% 30.4% → 37.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.43% | ÷0.980 | ×1.200 | — | — | 37.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.70% | ÷0.956 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 6.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.35% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 4.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷0.996 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 17.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.137 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 13.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.058 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 99, 2B 127, 3B 130, K 96, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .302 → .264; ISO .111 → .090; BABIP .308 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKFCL Nationals · 75 PAwOBA .367 → .257 (−110)K% 18.7% → 26.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.67% | ÷1.005 | ×1.440 | — | — | 26.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.00% | ÷0.960 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.945 | 7.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 2.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.53% | ÷1.019 | ×0.820 | ×0.969 | ×0.945 | 18.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.51% | ÷0.953 | ×0.720 | ×0.969 | ×0.945 | 5.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.13% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.969 | ×0.945 | 1.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.13% | ÷0.911 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.945 | 1.72% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 104, 2B 91, 3B 100, K 101, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 19.5 → −5.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .367 → .257; ISO .148 → .108; BABIP .370 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 31 PAwOBA .332 → .245 (−87)K% 25.8% → 33.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.81% | ÷0.998 | ×1.310 | — | — | 33.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.23% | ÷0.963 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 1.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.23% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 2.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.81% | ÷0.990 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 20.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.52% | ÷0.974 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 7.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.114 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 3.68% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 98, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 100, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .332 → .245; ISO .172 → .122; BABIP .350 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).