Welinton Herrera
P
Albuquerque Isotopes
+0.3
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 22
LHP
6'0" / 198 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.0 · 2029
ERA3.83
FIP3.83
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%25.6%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%16.0%
IP60
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2029
K†6060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Colorado | 18 | 0 | 23 | 96 | 28 | 11 | 1 | 19.8% | 14.3% | 1.2% | 5.16 | 3.89 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rockies | 20 | 1 | 43 | 177 | 54 | 14 | 0 | 20.7% | 9.9% | 0.0% | 2.93 | 2.60 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 21 | 0 | 22 | 98 | 36 | 15 | 0 | 25.0% | 19.1% | 0.0% | 3.27 | 3.41 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 46 | 0 | 62 | 260 | 92 | 22 | 2 | 26.5% | 9.8% | 0.9% | 3.47 | 2.62 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 21 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 52 | 0 | 65 | 272 | 99 | 24 | 2 | 29.1% | 9.8% | 0.7% | 2.64 | 2.30 | +2.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 4 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 8 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 9.64 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | COL | 24 | — | 24 | 101 | 26 | 10 | 2 | 25.6% | 9.6% | 2.4% | 3.83 | 3.83 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | COL | — | — | 29 | 125 | 34 | 14 | 3 | 27.1% | 11.0% | 2.7% | 4.78 | 3.20 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 68 | 24 | 6 | 26.1% | 9.1% | 2.4% | 3.79 | 3.73 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 63 | 268 | 71 | 23 | 6 | 26.5% | 8.8% | 2.4% | 3.74 | 3.67 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 64 | 271 | 72 | 23 | 7 | 26.7% | 8.6% | 2.4% | 3.69 | 3.64 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 64 | 271 | 73 | 23 | 7 | 26.8% | 8.6% | 2.4% | 3.66 | 3.64 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 72 | 23 | 7 | 26.8% | 8.6% | 2.4% | 3.65 | 3.64 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 63 | 265 | 71 | 23 | 7 | 26.8% | 8.6% | 2.5% | 3.66 | 3.67 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 69 | 23 | 7 | 26.7% | 8.7% | 2.5% | 3.69 | 3.72 | +0.9 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | COL | 60 | — | 60 | 251 | 66 | 22 | 6 | 26.5% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 3.74 | 3.78 | +0.8 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | COL | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 64 | 22 | 6 | 26.2% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 3.81 | 3.85 | +0.7 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | COL | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 60 | 21 | 6 | 25.9% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 3.89 | 3.94 | +0.6 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | COL | 53 | — | 53 | 222 | 57 | 21 | 6 | 25.6% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 3.98 | 4.04 | +0.5 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | COL | 50 | — | 50 | 211 | 53 | 20 | 6 | 25.3% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.08 | 4.15 | +0.5 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | COL | 47 | — | 47 | 199 | 49 | 19 | 6 | 24.9% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.19 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 161 | 1 | 219 | 927 | 236 | 106 | 7 | 25.5% | 11.5% | 0.7% | 3.41 | 2.79 | +6.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 147 | 1 | 200 | 845 | 215 | 97 | 6 | 25.5% | 11.5% | 0.7% | 3.41 | 2.79 | +5.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Welinton Herrera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.83 | 25.6% | 9.6% | 2.4% | — | 3.68 | 26.4% | 17.6% | 190 | -0.15 | — | — | — |
| Brian Marconi L 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.91 | 25.3% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .265 | 5.03 | 20.3% | 2.1% | 57 | +1.12 | 3.91 | 101 | 85 |
| Erik Sabrowski L 2027 · 2.86 FIP | 23 | SU | 2.86 | 27.7% | 12.1% | 1.0% | .283 | 4.08 | 26.4% | 6.8% | 59 | +1.22 | 2.86 | 117 | 84 |
| Brent Killam L 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 29.1% | 14.5% | 3.3% | .284 | 6.72 | 18.4% | 9.6% | 80 | +2.41 | 4.31 | 121 | 83 |
| Brandon Hughes L 2029 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.63 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.6% | .300 | 4.62 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 149 | +0.99 | 3.63 | 206 | 83 |
| Hayden Harris L 2028 · 3.12 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.12 | 29.1% | 11.2% | 1.9% | .315 | 2.78 | 32.4% | 20.5% | 95 | -0.34 | 1.85 | 146 | 82 |
| Bryan Magdaleno L 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.33 | 23.9% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .375 | 4.20 | 23.1% | 1.0% | 66 | +0.87 | 3.33 | 135 | 81 |
| Dale Stanavich L 2028 · 3.08 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.08 | 25.2% | 12.2% | 1.0% | .365 | 4.80 | 24.5% | 9.1% | 113 | +1.72 | 3.08 | 144 | 81 |
| Darien Núñez L 2029 · 3.22 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.22 | 26.4% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .377 | 2.59 | 34.2% | 23.5% | 78 | -0.63 | 2.48 | 122 | 81 |
| Andrew Mitchell L 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.75 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .333 | 2.70 | 23.8% | 15.8% | 78 | -1.05 | 2.51 | 119 | 80 |
| Ronny Agustin L 2026 · 3.11 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.11 | 27.5% | 14.3% | 0.9% | .286 | 4.52 | 14.6% | -3.9% | 46 | +1.41 | 3.11 | 158 | 80 |
| Wesley Moore L 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.66 | 25.9% | 13.2% | 2.0% | .254 | 4.19 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 58 | +0.53 | 3.66 | 111 | 80 |
| Logan Salow L 2027 · 2.78 FIP | 23 | SU | 2.78 | 22.9% | 7.3% | 1.3% | .331 | 3.83 | 24.9% | 7.0% | 103 | +1.05 | 2.78 | 148 | 80 |
| Ronnie Glenn L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.47 | 20.9% | 9.9% | 1.6% | .330 | 5.04 | 11.1% | -2.6% | 171 | +1.57 | 3.47 | 212 | 80 |
| Keyshawn Askew L 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.31 | 25.6% | 12.2% | 1.5% | .274 | 3.81 | 20.7% | 5.5% | 196 | +0.50 | 3.31 | 262 | 80 |
| Trey Jeans L 2027 · 2.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 2.74 | 23.9% | 6.6% | 1.5% | .345 | 5.16 | 22.7% | 7.8% | 88 | +2.42 | 2.74 | 111 | 79 |
| Jeff Singer L 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.21 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 1.0% | .263 | 3.63 | 22.6% | 10.4% | 174 | +0.42 | 2.91 | 292 | 79 |
| Jack Leathersich L 2029 · 3.72 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.72 | 30.6% | 13.2% | 2.8% | .339 | 3.72 | 28.6% | 11.9% | 76 | -0.00 | 3.13 | 101 | 79 |
| Mason Melotakis L 2029 · 3.29 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.29 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .379 | 4.39 | 18.2% | 7.1% | 80 | +1.10 | 3.29 | 142 | 79 |
| Evan Taylor L 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.32 | 28.1% | 16.5% | 2.7% | .304 | 3.18 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 150 | -1.14 | 3.08 | 163 | 79 |
| Jake Rice L 2028 · 3.14 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.14 | 24.7% | 6.2% | 2.4% | .294 | 4.77 | 21.5% | 6.0% | 130 | +1.63 | 3.14 | 199 | 78 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $2M | +1.0 | $9M | +$7M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.9 | $4M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +0.9 | $4M | +$0.5M |
| Totals | $11M | $40M | +$28M | ||