Welinton Herrera
P
Albuquerque Isotopes
Age 22
LHP
6'0" / 198 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.5 · 2028
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION25 act + 33 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8796vR 105
ERA3.77
FIP3.77
K%28.7%
BB%11.4%
K-BB%17.4%
ROS IP33
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Colorado | 18 | 0 | 23 | 96 | 28 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.8% | 14.3% | 5.5% | 1.1% | 5.16 | 3.87 | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Colorado | 18 | 0 | 23 | 96 | 28 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.2% | 11.5% | 17.7% | 1.0% | 5.16 | 2.66 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rockies | 20 | 1 | 43 | 177 | 54 | 14 | 0 | 5% | 2.1 | 20.7% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 0.0% | 2.93 | 2.60 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rockies | 20 | 1 | 43 | 177 | 54 | 14 | 0 | 5% | 2.1 | 30.5% | 7.9% | 22.6% | 0.0% | 2.93 | 1.57 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 21 | 0 | 22 | 98 | 36 | 15 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 19.1% | 5.8% | 0.0% | 3.27 | 3.41 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 21 | 0 | 22 | 98 | 36 | 15 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 36.7% | 15.3% | 21.4% | 0.0% | 3.27 | 1.87 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 62 | 260 | 92 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.5% | 9.8% | 16.7% | 0.9% | 3.47 | 2.60 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 62 | 260 | 92 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 35.4% | 8.5% | 26.9% | 0.8% | 3.47 | 1.62 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 65 | 272 | 99 | 24 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 29.1% | 9.8% | 19.2% | 0.6% | 2.64 | 2.21 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 65 | 272 | 99 | 24 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 36.4% | 8.8% | 27.6% | 0.7% | 2.64 | 1.55 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 19 | 1 | 25 | 117 | 36 | 15 | 1 | 5% | 1.3 | 28.0% | 13.7% | 14.2% | 1.0% | 4.68 | 3.04 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | COL | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 40 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.7% | 11.4% | 17.4% | 2.3% | 3.77 | 3.77 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | COL | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 40 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.7% | 11.4% | 17.4% | 2.7% | 3.96 | 3.96 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | COL | — | — | 58 | 256 | 76 | 31 | 4 | — | — | 29.7% | 12.0% | 17.6% | 1.7% | 4.16 | 3.46 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | COL | — | — | 35 | 149 | 76 | 31 | 5 | — | — | 51.0% | 20.7% | 30.3% | 3.2% | 7.02 | 3.15 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | COL | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 67 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.9% | 10.8% | 18.2% | 2.3% | 3.74 | 3.69 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | COL | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 69 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.1% | 10.4% | 18.6% | 2.4% | 3.70 | 3.64 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | COL | 54 | 0 | 57 | 239 | 70 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.2% | 10.2% | 18.9% | 2.4% | 3.67 | 3.62 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | COL | 54 | 0 | 57 | 239 | 70 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.2% | 10.2% | 19.1% | 2.4% | 3.64 | 3.62 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | COL | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 69 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.2% | 10.3% | 19.0% | 2.4% | 3.65 | 3.65 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | COL | 52 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 66 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.1% | 10.4% | 18.7% | 2.5% | 3.70 | 3.74 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | COL | 49 | 0 | 52 | 218 | 63 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.9% | 10.6% | 18.2% | 2.7% | 3.80 | 3.87 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | COL | 46 | 0 | 49 | 205 | 59 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.5% | 10.9% | 17.6% | 2.9% | 3.95 | 4.05 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | COL | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 64 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.9% | 10.8% | 18.2% | 2.7% | 3.94 | 3.89 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | COL | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 65 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.1% | 10.4% | 18.6% | 2.7% | 3.90 | 3.84 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | COL | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 67 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.2% | 10.2% | 18.9% | 2.7% | 3.87 | 3.82 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | COL | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 67 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.2% | 10.2% | 19.1% | 2.8% | 3.84 | 3.82 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | COL | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 65 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.2% | 10.3% | 19.0% | 2.8% | 3.85 | 3.85 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | COL | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 63 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.1% | 10.4% | 18.7% | 2.9% | 3.91 | 3.95 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | COL | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 60 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.9% | 10.6% | 18.2% | 3.1% | 4.03 | 4.10 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | COL | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 55 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.5% | 10.9% | 17.6% | 3.3% | 4.19 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 427 | 0 | 447 | 1889 | 547 | 199 | 54 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.0% | 10.5% | 18.4% | 2.8% | 3.92 | 3.55 | +9.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 191 | 0 | 200 | 845 | 245 | 89 | 24 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.0% | 10.5% | 18.4% | 2.8% | 3.92 | 3.55 | +4.3 | ||
| Career | — | 176 | 2 | 240 | 1020 | 261 | 118 | 6 | 1% | 1.4 | 25.6% | 11.6% | 14.0% | 0.6% | 3.42 | 2.75 | +7.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 147 | 2 | 200 | 851 | 218 | 99 | 5 | 1% | 1.4 | 25.6% | 11.6% | 14.0% | 0.6% | 3.42 | 2.75 | +6.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Welinton Herrera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.77 | 28.7% | 11.4% | 2.3% | — | 3.65 | 29.1% | 18.6% | 167 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Hayden Harris L 2028 · 3.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.23 | 29.1% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .315 | 3.21 | 30.2% | 16.2% | 129 | -0.02 | 1.86 | 180 | 89 |
| Jack Sellinger L 2028 · 2.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 2.73 | 26.4% | 9.7% | 1.1% | .284 | 3.31 | 24.4% | 9.1% | 91 | +0.58 | 2.73 | 125 | 85 |
| Wesley Moore L 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.83 | 25.9% | 13.2% | 2.3% | .254 | 4.14 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 58 | +0.31 | 3.83 | 111 | 85 |
| Brian Marconi L 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.61 | 25.3% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .265 | 4.96 | 20.3% | 2.1% | 57 | +1.35 | 3.61 | 101 | 84 |
| Eric Torres L 2026 · 2.73 FIP | 22 | SU | 2.73 | 31.8% | 12.3% | 1.4% | .222 | 5.34 | 25.2% | 6.6% | 83 | +2.61 | 2.73 | 155 | 84 |
| Jimmy Burnette L 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.61 | 29.8% | 15.2% | 2.0% | .297 | 4.06 | 22.3% | 5.5% | 101 | +0.45 | 3.06 | 158 | 84 |
| Brandon Hughes L 2029 · 3.62 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.62 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.5% | .300 | 4.49 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 149 | +0.87 | 3.62 | 206 | 82 |
| Zach Warren L 2026 · 2.86 FIP | 22 | SU | 2.86 | 32.9% | 14.7% | 1.2% | .326 | 3.90 | 26.3% | 8.5% | 104 | +1.04 | 2.86 | 184 | 81 |
| Ronny Agustin L 2026 · 3.13 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.13 | 27.5% | 14.3% | 1.0% | .286 | 4.50 | 14.6% | -3.9% | 46 | +1.37 | 3.13 | 158 | 81 |
| Dale Stanavich L 2028 · 3.14 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.14 | 25.2% | 12.2% | 1.1% | .365 | 4.88 | 24.6% | 9.9% | 137 | +1.74 | 3.14 | 167 | 80 |
| Quintin Torres-Costa L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.98 | 25.0% | 12.3% | 2.6% | .340 | 2.51 | 24.8% | 12.9% | 55 | -1.47 | 2.51 | 248 | 80 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2026 · 2.83 FIP | 22 | SU | 2.83 | 24.1% | 10.0% | 0.9% | .285 | 3.53 | 22.5% | 10.0% | 123 | +0.70 | 2.83 | 271 | 80 |
| Jack Leathersich L 2029 · 3.57 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.57 | 30.6% | 13.2% | 2.5% | .339 | 3.78 | 28.6% | 11.9% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.30 | 101 | 79 |
| Alex Vesia L 2027 · 2.81 FIP | 23 | SU | 2.81 | 29.2% | 8.5% | 2.0% | .293 | 2.80 | 34.2% | 23.4% | 94 | -0.01 | 1.96 | 382 | 79 |
| Justin Storm L 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.20 | 26.5% | 14.9% | 0.8% | .267 | 4.19 | 17.3% | 0.9% | 97 | +0.99 | 3.16 | 146 | 79 |
| Darien Núñez L 2029 · 3.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.18 | 26.4% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .377 | 2.59 | 34.2% | 23.5% | 78 | -0.59 | 2.50 | 122 | 79 |
| Evan Taylor L 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.37 | 28.1% | 16.5% | 2.8% | .304 | 3.21 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 150 | -1.16 | 3.08 | 203 | 79 |
| Gabriel Sequeira L 2027 · 2.65 FIP | 23 | SU | 2.65 | 25.5% | 10.4% | 0.7% | .413 | 4.23 | 20.5% | 8.4% | 112 | +1.58 | 2.65 | 160 | 78 |
| Sandro Santana L 2025 · 3.16 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.16 | 28.8% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .343 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 126 | 78 |
| Nate Lavender L 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.20 | 25.5% | 14.6% | 0.7% | .292 | 4.16 | 30.9% | 19.4% | 44 | +0.96 | 3.05 | 117 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 52 | 29.0% | 10.5% | 0.96 | 3.73 |
| Matt Barnes ('23) | 9 | 49 | 29.6% | 10.8% | 1.03 | 4.14 |
| Mychal Givens ('22) | 8 | 57 | 28.4% | 9.8% | 1.06 | 3.40 |
| Adam Ottavino ('24) | 8 | 59 | 29.3% | 11.4% | 0.86 | 3.18 |
| Will Smith ('24) | 8 | 56 | 29.2% | 8.8% | 1.07 | 3.60 |
| Brad Boxberger ('23) | 8 | 43 | 27.1% | 11.7% | 1.17 | 3.86 |
| Wade Davis ('21) | 6 | 53 | 27.3% | 10.4% | 0.90 | 3.77 |