Welinton Herrera

P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 23 LHP 6'0" / 198 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

AAARPIL-6040-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX2 levels	46	0	62	3.47	1.62	35.4%	8.5%	—	K 26.5% · BB 9.8% · FIP 2.62
2025	21	MIX2 levels	52	0	65	2.64	1.55	36.4%	8.8%	—	K 29.1% · BB 9.8% · FIP 2.28
2026	22	MIX2 levels	19	1	25	4.68	2.54	30.8%	12.8%	0.6	K 27.3% · BB 11.8% · FIP 2.85
2027PROJ	23	MLBCOL	19	0	20	3.88	3.88	28.6%	11.8%	0.2
2028PROJ77% MLB	24	MLBCOL	37	0	39	3.86	3.82	28.6%	11.2%	0.3
2029PROJ85% MLB	25	MLBCOL	38	0	40	3.83	3.79	28.6%	10.9%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 4.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 73%

CompsTaylor Tankersley (age 23) · Hayden Harris (age 24) · Brandon Hughes (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9199vR 107

ERA3.88

FIP3.88

K%28.6%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%16.7%

Proj IP32

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 32 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	18	0	23	96	28	11	1	0%	1.3	19.8%	14.3%	5.5%	1.3%	5.16	3.94	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	18	0	23	96	28	11	1	0%	1.3	29.2%	11.5%	17.7%	1.0%	5.16	2.66	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	20	1	43	177	54	14	0	5%	2.1	20.7%	9.9%	10.9%	0.0%	2.93	2.60	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	20	1	43	177	54	14	0	5%	2.1	30.5%	7.9%	22.6%	0.0%	2.93	1.57	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	21	0	22	98	36	15	0	0%	1.0	25.0%	19.1%	5.8%	0.0%	3.27	3.41	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	21	0	22	98	36	15	0	0%	1.0	36.7%	15.3%	21.4%	0.0%	3.27	1.87	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	62	260	92	22	2	0%	1.4	26.5%	9.8%	16.7%	0.9%	3.47	2.62	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	62	260	92	22	2	0%	1.4	26.5%	9.8%	16.7%	0.9%	3.47	2.62	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	62	260	92	22	2	0%	1.4	35.4%	8.5%	26.9%	0.8%	3.47	1.62	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	65	272	99	24	2	0%	1.2	29.1%	9.8%	19.2%	0.7%	2.64	2.28	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	65	272	99	24	2	0%	1.2	29.1%	9.8%	19.2%	0.7%	2.64	2.28	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	65	272	99	24	2	0%	1.2	36.4%	8.8%	27.6%	0.7%	2.64	1.55	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	1	25	117	36	15	1	5%	1.3	27.3%	11.8%	15.6%	1.0%	4.68	2.85	+0.5
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	1	25	117	36	15	1	5%	1.3	27.3%	11.8%	15.6%	1.0%	4.68	2.85	+0.5
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	1	25	117	36	15	1	5%	1.3	30.8%	12.8%	17.9%	0.9%	4.68	2.54	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	0	2	10	2	1	0	0%	0.8	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.67	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	COL	19	0	20	84	24	10	2	0%	1.1	28.6%	11.8%	16.7%	2.4%	3.88	3.88	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	COL	49	0	51	216	62	24	5	0%	1.0	28.6%	11.2%	17.4%	2.4%	3.86	3.82	+0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	COL	45	0	48	201	57	22	5	0%	1.1	28.6%	10.9%	17.7%	2.5%	3.83	3.79	+0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	COL	44	0	47	197	56	21	5	0%	1.1	28.5%	10.8%	17.8%	2.5%	3.82	3.79	+0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	COL	37	0	39	165	47	18	4	0%	1.1	28.6%	11.2%	17.4%	2.4%	3.86	3.82	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	COL	38	0	40	169	48	18	4	0%	1.1	28.6%	10.9%	17.7%	2.5%	3.83	3.79	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	COL	40	0	42	177	51	19	4	0%	1.1	28.5%	10.8%	17.8%	2.5%	3.82	3.79	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		119	0	124	522	149	57	13	0%	1.0	28.4%	10.9%	17.5%	2.4%	3.76	3.41	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		192	0	200	845	241	92	21	0%	1.0	28.4%	10.9%	17.5%	2.4%	3.76	3.41	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		176	2	240	1020	260	116	7	1%	1.4	25.5%	11.4%	14.1%	0.7%	3.42	2.75	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		147	2	200	851	217	97	6	1%	1.4	25.5%	11.4%	14.1%	0.7%	3.42	2.75	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 23 IPFIP 2.59 → 2.85 (+0.26)K% 31.8% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.78%	—	×0.860	27.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.08%	—	×0.900	11.78%
HR / BF /BF	0.93%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.03%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.59 → 2.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAHartford Yard Goats · 46 IPFIP 1.86 → 2.50 (+0.64)K% 34.3% → 27.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.31%	—	×0.810	27.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.82%	—	×1.100	9.71%
HR / BF /BF	0.98%	÷1.255	×1.200	0.94%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 151).

Result: FIP 1.86 → 2.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Spokane Indians · 18 IPFIP 0.62 → 1.61 (+1.00)K% 42.6% → 32.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	42.65%	—	×0.770	32.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.82%	—	×1.150	10.15%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.999	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 0.62 → 1.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFresno Grizzlies · 34 IPFIP 0.55 → 1.79 (+1.24)K% 44.6% → 33.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.60%	—	×0.740	33.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.47%	—	×1.180	7.64%
HR / BF /BF	0.72%	÷1.002	×1.300	0.93%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 0.55 → 1.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Spokane Indians · 28 IPFIP 2.82 → 3.58 (+0.75)K% 24.8% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.79%	—	×0.770	19.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.74%	—	×1.150	12.36%
HR / BF /BF	0.83%	÷1.086	×1.250	0.95%

Result: FIP 2.82 → 3.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Rockies · 22 IPFIP 1.94 → 3.41 (+1.48)K% 36.7% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.73%	—	×0.680	24.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.31%	—	×1.250	19.13%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.031	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 1.94 → 3.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL Rockies · 43 IPFIP 1.53 → 2.60 (+1.07)K% 30.5% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.51%	—	×0.680	20.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.91%	—	×1.250	9.89%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.233	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.53 → 2.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKDSL Colorado · 23 IPFIP 2.66 → 3.94 (+1.28)K% 29.2% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.17%	—	×0.680	19.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.46%	—	×1.250	14.32%
HR / BF /BF	1.04%	÷1.138	×1.400	1.28%

Result: FIP 2.66 → 3.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Welinton Herrera (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.4%	—	3.80	28.6%	17.6%	146	-0.08	—	—	—
Taylor Tankersley L 2006 · 3.65 FIP	23	SU	3.65	25.8%	11.8%	2.2%	.271	4.62	21.6%	9.8%	65	+0.97	3.65	118	83
Hayden Harris L 2023 · 3.11 FIP	24	SU	3.11	29.1%	11.2%	1.9%	.315	3.30	29.4%	17.2%	145	+0.19	1.77	196	83
Brandon Hughes L 2021 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	27.0%	11.1%	2.7%	.300	4.59	24.3%	15.3%	149	+0.91	3.68	206	83
Brian Marconi L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	24	SU	3.89	25.3%	12.3%	2.5%	.265	5.02	20.3%	2.1%	57	+1.13	3.89	101	82
Jack Leathersich L 2015 · 3.70 FIP	25	SU	3.70	30.6%	13.2%	2.8%	.339	3.74	28.6%	11.9%	76	+0.04	3.16	101	81
Rafael Perez L 2006 · 3.93 FIP	24	SU	3.93	26.8%	8.9%	3.6%	.235	3.21	23.6%	17.0%	185	-0.72	2.74	403	81
Ryan Rowland-Smith L 2007 · 3.35 FIP	24	SU	3.35	25.0%	8.3%	2.4%	.324	4.89	12.7%	4.4%	324	+1.54	3.35	363	80
Dale Stanavich L 2023 · 3.09 FIP	24	SU	3.09	25.2%	12.2%	1.0%	.365	4.93	24.7%	10.3%	154	+1.84	3.09	184	80
Darien Núñez L 2018 · 3.27 FIP	25	SU	3.27	26.4%	11.0%	1.8%	.377	2.59	34.2%	23.5%	78	-0.68	2.48	122	80
Wesley Moore L 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	25.9%	13.2%	1.9%	.254	4.18	18.3%	5.6%	58	+0.56	3.62	111	79
Reagan Todd L 2019 · 2.89 FIP	23	SU	2.89	26.6%	7.1%	2.1%	.286	4.21	26.1%	15.5%	90	+1.32	2.89	122	79
Jake Diekman L 2012 · 2.88 FIP	25	SU	2.88	26.7%	13.0%	0.7%	.308	2.68	28.4%	18.3%	168	-0.20	2.27	592	79
Jimmy Burnette L 2022 · 3.59 FIP	23	SU	3.59	29.8%	15.2%	2.0%	.297	3.82	22.1%	6.7%	101	+0.23	3.00	158	79
Dario Alvarez L 2015 · 3.47 FIP	26	SU	3.47	26.0%	13.1%	1.7%	.260	3.64	27.7%	17.1%	129	+0.17	3.47	160	79
Dan Runzler L 2010 · 2.84 FIP	25	SU	2.84	25.7%	11.8%	0.8%	.315	2.92	20.8%	8.3%	27	+0.08	2.84	187	79
Nate Lavender L 2023 · 4.01 FIP	23	SU	4.01	30.2%	9.9%	4.0%	.281	2.48	33.9%	27.3%	55	-1.53	2.48	146	78
Lael Lockhart L 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SU	3.59	33.4%	15.2%	2.5%	.409	4.38	21.5%	10.6%	321	+0.79	3.59	520	78
Brian Fuentes L 2002 · 3.64 FIP	26	SU	3.64	32.2%	11.0%	3.4%	.333	3.19	26.2%	17.3%	194	-0.45	2.08	602	77
Will Ohman L 2001 · 4.66 FIP	23	SU	4.66	22.2%	11.1%	3.7%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	350	77
Matt Cronin L 2021 · 3.42 FIP	23	SU	3.42	34.1%	15.8%	2.2%	.349	3.05	22.9%	12.8%	111	-0.37	1.83	172	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	46	28.5%	11.1%	0.93	3.80
Chaz Roe ('21)	1.1	43	26.4%	11.1%	0.79	3.89
Antonio Bastardo ('17)	2.0	56	28.0%	11.4%	1.01	4.01
Kevin Siegrist ('17)	1.2	49	27.9%	11.3%	0.92	3.04
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Dave Geisel ('78-'85, 2 WAR*)	1.0	42	23.5%*	10.6%*	0.84*	4.12*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*