Welinton Herrera

Welinton Herrera P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 22 LHP 6'0" / 198 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.7 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION25 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8997vR 105

ERA3.80

FIP3.80

K%28.7%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%17.2%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$18M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL—50

CMD3035

K†6565

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.2M	+$0.1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2029	Arb-1	$1M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2030	Arb-2	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.5M
2031	Arb-3	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$10M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	18	0	23	96	28	11	1	0%	1.3	19.8%	14.3%	5.5%	1.3%	5.16	3.94	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	18	0	23	96	28	11	1	0%	1.3	29.2%	11.5%	17.7%	1.0%	5.16	2.66	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	20	1	43	177	54	14	0	5%	2.1	20.7%	9.9%	10.9%	0.0%	2.93	2.60	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	20	1	43	177	54	14	0	5%	2.1	30.5%	7.9%	22.6%	0.0%	2.93	1.57	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	21	0	22	98	36	15	0	0%	1.0	25.0%	19.1%	5.8%	0.0%	3.27	3.41	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	21	0	22	98	36	15	0	0%	1.0	25.0%	19.1%	5.8%	0.0%	3.27	3.41	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	21	0	22	98	36	15	0	0%	1.0	36.7%	15.3%	21.4%	0.0%	3.27	1.87	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	62	260	92	22	2	0%	1.4	26.5%	9.8%	16.7%	0.9%	3.47	2.62	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	62	260	92	22	2	0%	1.4	26.5%	9.8%	16.7%	0.9%	3.47	2.62	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	62	260	92	22	2	0%	1.4	35.4%	8.5%	26.9%	0.8%	3.47	1.62	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	65	272	99	24	2	0%	1.2	29.1%	9.8%	19.2%	0.7%	2.64	2.28	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	65	272	99	24	2	0%	1.2	29.1%	9.8%	19.2%	0.7%	2.64	2.28	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	65	272	99	24	2	0%	1.2	36.4%	8.8%	27.6%	0.7%	2.64	1.55	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	0	2	10	2	1	0	0%	0.8	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.67	+0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	19	1	25	117	36	15	1	5%	1.3	26.4%	11.8%	14.6%	1.0%	4.68	2.93	—
YTD	22	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	19	1	25	117	36	15	1	5%	1.3	26.4%	11.8%	14.6%	1.0%	4.68	2.93	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	AAA RAW	COL	16	1	23	107	34	14	1	6%	1.4	31.8%	13.1%	18.7%	0.9%	5.16	2.59	—
2026	22	MLB RAW	COL	3	0	2	10	2	1	0	0%	0.8	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.68	—
SO FAR	22	MLB RAW	COL	3	0	2	10	2	1	0	0%	0.8	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.68	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	COL	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	28.7%	11.5%	17.2%	2.4%	3.80	3.80	+0.0
ROS	22	MLB CTX	COL	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	28.7%	11.5%	17.2%	2.7%	4.00	4.00	+0.0
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	COL	—	—	26	121	37	15	1	—	—	30.7%	12.8%	17.9%	0.9%	4.65	2.96	+0.5
FULL	22	MLB A+C	COL	—	—	3	14	37	15	1	—	—	267.9%	111.5%	156.4%	8.0%	36.77	-1.01	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	COL	58	0	60	255	74	28	6	0%	1.0	28.9%	10.9%	18.1%	2.4%	3.77	3.72	+0.6
2028	24	MLB MLE	COL	59	0	62	261	76	28	6	0%	1.0	29.1%	10.5%	18.6%	2.4%	3.73	3.67	+0.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	COL	60	0	63	265	77	27	6	0%	1.0	29.2%	10.3%	18.9%	2.4%	3.69	3.64	+0.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	COL	60	0	63	265	77	27	6	0%	1.0	29.2%	10.3%	19.0%	2.4%	3.67	3.64	+0.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	COL	59	0	62	261	76	27	6	0%	1.0	29.2%	10.3%	18.9%	2.5%	3.67	3.68	+0.7
2027	23	MLB CTX	COL	54	0	57	241	70	26	7	0%	1.1	28.9%	10.9%	18.1%	2.7%	3.97	3.92	+0.6
2028	24	MLB CTX	COL	56	0	59	249	72	26	7	0%	1.1	29.1%	10.5%	18.6%	2.8%	3.93	3.87	+0.6
2029	25	MLB CTX	COL	57	0	60	253	74	26	7	0%	1.1	29.2%	10.3%	18.9%	2.8%	3.89	3.84	+0.7
2030	26	MLB CTX	COL	57	0	60	253	74	26	7	0%	1.1	29.2%	10.3%	19.0%	2.8%	3.87	3.84	+0.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	COL	56	0	59	249	73	26	7	0%	1.1	29.2%	10.3%	18.9%	2.8%	3.88	3.89	+0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		284	0	297	1255	365	131	35	0%	1.0	29.1%	10.5%	18.6%	2.8%	3.88	3.48	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	845	246	88	24	0%	1.0	29.1%	10.5%	18.6%	2.8%	3.88	3.48	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		176	2	240	1020	259	116	7	1%	1.4	25.4%	11.4%	14.0%	0.7%	3.42	2.76	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		147	2	200	851	216	97	6	1%	1.4	25.4%	11.4%	14.0%	0.7%	3.42	2.76	+2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Welinton Herrera (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.80	28.7%	11.5%	2.4%	—	3.68	29.1%	18.5%	185	-0.12	—	—	—
Hayden Harris L 2023 · 3.11 FIP	24	SU	3.11	29.1%	11.2%	1.9%	.315	3.36	28.8%	16.7%	143	+0.25	1.82	194	89
Wesley Moore L 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	25.9%	13.2%	1.9%	.254	4.18	18.3%	5.6%	58	+0.56	3.62	111	86
Jimmy Burnette L 2022 · 3.59 FIP	23	SU	3.59	29.8%	15.2%	2.0%	.297	3.85	21.8%	6.4%	101	+0.26	3.01	158	85
Eric Torres L 2022 · 2.81 FIP	22	SU	2.81	31.8%	12.3%	1.6%	.222	5.20	24.7%	7.5%	83	+2.39	2.81	155	85
Brian Marconi L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	24	SU	3.89	25.3%	12.3%	2.5%	.265	5.02	20.3%	2.1%	57	+1.13	3.89	101	85
Zach Warren L 2018 · 2.84 FIP	22	SU	2.84	32.9%	14.7%	1.2%	.326	3.99	26.3%	8.5%	104	+1.15	2.84	184	82
Quintin Torres-Costa L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	25.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.340	2.51	24.8%	12.9%	55	-1.45	2.51	248	82
Brandon Hughes L 2021 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	27.0%	11.1%	2.7%	.300	4.61	24.0%	15.0%	149	+0.93	3.68	206	81
Ronny Agustin L 2017 · 3.11 FIP	22	SU	3.11	27.5%	14.3%	0.9%	.286	4.52	14.6%	-3.9%	46	+1.41	3.11	158	80
Alex Vesia L 2019 · 2.62 FIP	23	SU	2.62	29.2%	8.5%	1.7%	.293	2.68	34.2%	23.4%	94	+0.06	1.91	401	80
Thomas Burrows L 2017 · 2.67 FIP	22	SU	2.67	24.1%	10.0%	0.6%	.285	3.44	22.5%	10.0%	123	+0.77	2.67	271	80
Dale Stanavich L 2023 · 3.09 FIP	24	SU	3.09	25.2%	12.2%	1.0%	.365	4.87	24.5%	10.1%	153	+1.78	3.09	183	79
Jack Leathersich L 2015 · 3.70 FIP	25	SU	3.70	30.6%	13.2%	2.8%	.339	3.74	28.6%	11.9%	76	+0.04	3.16	101	78
Darien Núñez L 2018 · 3.27 FIP	25	SU	3.27	26.4%	11.0%	1.8%	.377	2.59	34.2%	23.5%	78	-0.68	2.48	122	78
Jakob Hernandez L 2018 · 2.99 FIP	22	SU	2.99	23.9%	12.0%	0.7%	.345	3.40	23.3%	13.1%	123	+0.41	2.99	266	78
Gabriel Sequeira L 2021 · 2.62 FIP	23	SU	2.62	25.5%	10.4%	0.7%	.413	4.02	20.5%	8.4%	112	+1.40	2.62	160	78
Evan Taylor L 2022 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	28.1%	16.5%	2.7%	.304	3.19	21.9%	10.0%	150	-1.12	3.01	223	78
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.90	22.0%	8.8%	105	-0.30	3.14	161	77
Dylan Phillips L 2023 · 2.65 FIP	24	SU	2.65	23.9%	9.8%	0.6%	.352	3.66	20.5%	10.3%	188	+1.01	2.65	243	77
Nate Lavender L 2022 · 3.17 FIP	22	SU	3.17	25.5%	14.6%	0.7%	.292	4.10	29.1%	19.2%	44	+0.93	2.51	139	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	60	29.1%	10.6%	0.93	3.72
Keone Kela ('19)	1.1	43	30.1%	9.4%	0.92	3.23
Adam Ottavino ('24)	2.3	59	29.3%	11.4%	0.86	3.18
Corey Knebel ('22)	1.4	47	32.3%	11.2%	0.95	3.04
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Joe Jiménez ('24)	1.9	53	29.8%	8.6%	1.11	4.06