Bryan Mena — OGILVIE

Bryan Mena P Greensboro Grasshoppers

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs A+ peak 1.0 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION89 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 148140vR 132

ERA6.04

FIP6.04

K%12.8%

BB%15.8%

K-BB%-3.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 95 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL3535

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	13	2	34	142	35	10	1	15%	2.6	16.8%	8.8%	8.0%	0.9%	1.57	3.28	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	13	2	34	142	35	10	1	15%	2.6	24.6%	7.0%	17.6%	0.7%	1.57	2.31	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	9	5	36	161	32	11	1	56%	4.0	13.5%	8.5%	5.0%	0.9%	4.54	3.56	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	9	5	36	161	32	11	1	56%	4.0	19.9%	6.8%	13.0%	0.6%	4.54	2.60	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	6	6	26	112	28	7	0	100%	4.3	17.0%	7.8%	9.2%	0.0%	5.26	2.65	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	6	6	26	112	28	7	0	100%	4.3	17.0%	7.8%	9.2%	0.0%	5.26	2.65	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	6	6	26	112	28	7	0	100%	4.3	25.0%	6.2%	18.8%	0.0%	5.26	1.74	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	13	79	353	83	42	9	65%	4.0	16.4%	14.5%	1.9%	3.3%	4.99	5.39	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	13	79	353	83	42	9	65%	4.0	16.4%	14.5%	1.9%	3.3%	4.99	5.39	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	13	79	353	83	42	9	65%	4.0	23.5%	11.9%	11.6%	2.5%	4.99	4.07	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	29	18	107	498	97	57	9	62%	3.7	14.4%	13.5%	0.9%	2.7%	5.62	5.08	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	29	18	107	498	97	57	9	62%	3.7	14.4%	13.5%	0.9%	2.7%	5.62	5.08	—
2025	21	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	29	18	107	498	97	57	9	62%	3.7	19.5%	11.4%	8.0%	1.8%	5.62	3.98	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	22	14	89	388	70	37	19	64%	4.0	13.9%	11.0%	2.9%	6.1%	4.87	6.68	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	22	14	89	388	70	37	19	64%	4.0	13.9%	11.0%	2.9%	6.1%	4.87	6.68	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	PIT	22	14	89	388	70	37	19	64%	4.0	18.0%	9.5%	8.5%	4.9%	4.87	5.47	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	PIT	1	1	6	27	3	4	1	100%	6.3	12.8%	15.8%	-3.0%	3.0%	6.04	6.04	-0.1
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	95	415	73	41	20	—	—	17.7%	9.9%	7.8%	4.8%	4.95	6.63	-1.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	PIT	16	16	100	423	64	59	12	100%	6.3	15.2%	14.1%	1.2%	2.9%	5.69	5.59	-0.8
2028	24	MLB MLE	PIT	16	16	103	434	72	56	13	100%	6.4	16.7%	13.0%	3.7%	2.9%	5.42	5.31	-0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	PIT	16	16	104	439	77	54	13	100%	6.5	17.5%	12.4%	5.1%	2.9%	5.24	5.16	-0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	PIT	16	16	104	439	79	54	13	100%	6.5	17.9%	12.2%	5.7%	2.9%	5.15	5.11	-0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	PIT	16	16	102	432	77	53	13	100%	6.4	17.9%	12.3%	5.6%	3.0%	5.15	5.15	-0.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	PIT	16	16	99	419	74	52	13	100%	6.2	17.8%	12.4%	5.3%	3.1%	5.20	5.23	-0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	PIT	15	15	95	400	70	51	13	100%	6.3	17.5%	12.7%	4.9%	3.2%	5.30	5.36	-0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	PIT	14	14	89	376	65	49	13	100%	6.4	17.2%	13.0%	4.2%	3.4%	5.44	5.54	-0.6
2027	23	MLB CTX	PIT	8	8	50	211	32	30	6	100%	6.2	15.2%	14.1%	1.2%	2.9%	5.69	5.59	-0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	PIT	11	11	72	304	51	39	9	100%	6.5	16.7%	13.0%	3.7%	2.9%	5.42	5.31	-0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	PIT	13	13	84	355	62	44	10	100%	6.5	17.5%	12.4%	5.1%	2.9%	5.24	5.16	-0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	PIT	14	14	91	384	69	47	11	100%	6.5	17.9%	12.2%	5.7%	2.9%	5.15	5.11	-0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	PIT	15	15	92	388	69	48	11	100%	6.1	17.9%	12.3%	5.6%	3.0%	5.15	5.15	-0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	PIT	14	14	91	384	68	48	12	100%	6.5	17.8%	12.4%	5.3%	3.1%	5.20	5.23	-0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	PIT	14	14	88	372	65	47	12	100%	6.3	17.5%	12.7%	4.9%	3.2%	5.30	5.36	-0.4
2034	30	MLB CTX	PIT	13	13	83	350	60	45	12	100%	6.4	17.2%	13.0%	4.2%	3.4%	5.44	5.54	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		103	103	652	2754	477	349	84	100%	6.3	17.3%	12.7%	4.7%	3.0%	5.30	4.91	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	146	107	26	100%	6.3	17.3%	12.7%	4.7%	3.0%	5.30	4.91	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		99	58	371	1654	248	196	52	59%	3.7	15.0%	11.9%	3.2%	3.1%	4.80	5.05	-3.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	31	200	892	134	106	28	59%	3.7	15.0%	11.9%	3.2%	3.1%	4.80	5.05	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryan Mena (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.04	12.8%	15.8%	3.0%	—	5.35	16.5%	3.4%	307	-0.69	—	—	—
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	87
Kevin Gowdy R 2019 · 5.31 FIP	21	SP-	5.31	11.1%	17.0%	1.8%	.321	5.50	16.3%	6.0%	130	+0.19	3.16	333	85
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.45	19.3%	8.7%	150	-0.96	3.60	209	85
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	85
Trey Riley R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	10.6%	19.0%	2.1%	.344	5.78	17.4%	5.2%	74	-0.00	4.35	227	83
Boone Whiting R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	11.3%	13.9%	2.6%	.337	4.88	10.9%	4.8%	132	-0.45	4.88	227	82
Mason Pelio R 2023 · 6.38 FIP	23	SP-	6.38	13.3%	17.4%	4.0%	.255	5.88	9.0%	-12.8%	26	-0.50	5.88	122	81
Oscar Verdugo R 2015 · 6.33 FIP	25	SP-	6.33	10.5%	13.9%	4.3%	.241	5.78	10.8%	-1.8%	74	-0.55	5.01	144	79
Alberto Tirado R 2017 · 5.69 FIP	22	SW	5.69	14.7%	18.5%	2.7%	.294	3.82	16.5%	-0.2%	33	-1.87	3.78	247	79
Keythel Key R 2023 · 5.77 FIP	19	SP-	5.77	13.7%	20.1%	2.3%	.290	5.29	18.8%	2.9%	228	-0.48	4.98	272	79
Alex Santos II R 2023 · 6.17 FIP	21	SW	6.17	16.8%	17.5%	4.1%	.335	4.57	24.8%	8.5%	106	-1.60	3.51	313	78
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	78
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.53	352	78
Stiven Cruz R 2023 · 6.36 FIP	21	SP-	6.36	13.6%	14.8%	4.6%	.312	4.91	17.3%	6.4%	192	-1.45	2.84	426	77
Garrett Nuss R 2015 · 5.71 FIP	22	SW	5.71	14.1%	14.9%	3.5%	.352	4.58	15.0%	5.3%	92	-1.13	4.57	174	77
Erick Reynoso R 2023 · 6.37 FIP	20	SP-	6.37	10.7%	20.4%	2.9%	.305	6.44	14.9%	-7.7%	146	+0.07	6.06	180	77
Jol Concepcion R 2021 · 6.54 FIP	22	SW	6.54	12.2%	20.0%	3.5%	.272	4.60	23.9%	3.9%	50	-1.94	4.60	154	77
Moises Ruiz R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	20	SP-	5.62	8.7%	12.8%	3.0%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	104	77
Nic Swanson R 2022 · 6.18 FIP	23	SP-	6.18	18.5%	15.9%	4.8%	.302	4.74	18.6%	7.7%	284	-1.44	4.29	438	76
Miguel Medrano R 2021 · 5.49 FIP	23	SP-	5.49	17.7%	15.5%	3.5%	.299	6.10	18.1%	-0.5%	50	+0.61	2.73	232	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	97	16.8%	13.0%	1.17	5.38
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39