Bryan Mena — OGILVIE

Bryan Mena P Greensboro Grasshoppers

+0.0 WAR

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.8 · 2030

ERA4.89

FIP4.89

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%19.4%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%8.1%

IP107

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.8peak

2030

K†4550

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Colorado	13	2	34	142	35	10	1	16.8%	8.8%	0.8%	1.57	3.24	+0.7
2022	18	ROK	ACL Rockies	9	5	36	161	32	11	1	13.5%	8.5%	1.0%	4.54	3.60	+0.5
2023	19	ROK	ACL Rockies	6	6	26	112	28	7	0	17.0%	7.8%	0.0%	5.26	2.65	+0.7
2024	20	A	Fresno Grizzlies	20	13	79	353	83	42	9	16.4%	14.5%	3.3%	4.99	5.37	-0.2
2025	21	A	Fresno Grizzlies	29	18	107	498	97	57	9	14.4%	13.5%	2.6%	5.62	5.02	+0.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	2	1	7	36	4	3	3	—	—	—	6.43	—	—
ROS	22	MLB	PIT	20	20	107	453	88	51	13	19.4%	11.3%	3.0%	4.89	4.89	+0.5
2026 Total	22	MLB	PIT	—	—	114	489	92	54	16	18.8%	11.1%	3.3%	4.98	4.59	+0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	23	MLB	PIT	24	24	131	554	114	57	16	20.6%	10.2%	2.9%	4.71	4.63	+1.0
2028	24	MLB	PIT	27	27	151	636	136	61	18	21.3%	9.5%	2.9%	4.55	4.47	+1.4
2029	25	MLB	PIT	30	30	164	695	151	63	20	21.7%	9.1%	2.9%	4.45	4.38	+1.7
2030	26	MLB	PIT	31	31	172	724	159	66	21	21.9%	9.0%	2.9%	4.39	4.36	+1.8
2031	27	MLB	PIT	32	32	174	736	162	67	21	22.0%	9.1%	2.9%	4.37	4.36	+1.9
2032	28	MLB	PIT	32	32	174	733	161	67	21	21.9%	9.1%	2.9%	4.38	4.39	+1.8
2033	29	MLB	PIT	31	31	170	717	156	66	21	21.8%	9.2%	3.0%	4.41	4.44	+1.7
2034	30	MLB	PIT	30	30	165	695	150	65	21	21.6%	9.3%	3.0%	4.46	4.50	+1.5
2035	31	MLB	PIT	29	29	159	670	143	63	21	21.4%	9.4%	3.1%	4.53	4.57	+1.3
2036	32	MLB	PIT	28	28	152	643	136	62	20	21.1%	9.6%	3.2%	4.61	4.66	+1.1
2037	33	MLB	PIT	26	26	146	614	128	60	20	20.8%	9.8%	3.3%	4.70	4.76	+0.9
2038	34	MLB	PIT	25	25	138	584	119	58	20	20.4%	10.0%	3.4%	4.80	4.87	+0.7
2039	35	MLB	PIT	24	24	130	550	110	56	19	20.0%	10.2%	3.5%	4.91	4.99	+0.5
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			79	45	289	1302	198	156	30	15.2%	12.0%	2.3%	4.82	4.62	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—			55	31	200	900	137	108	21	15.2%	12.0%	2.3%	4.82	4.62	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryan Mena (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	19.4%	11.3%	3.0%	—	4.48	21.3%	11.7%	446	-0.41	—	—	—
Adam Hill R 2026 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP-	4.99	15.6%	12.6%	2.9%	.297	6.14	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.15	4.99	213	94
Garrett Cave R 2026 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP-	4.99	16.4%	14.9%	2.5%	.301	4.97	17.8%	-8.8%	40	-0.02	4.97	156	93
Chase Cohen R 2026 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP-	4.69	15.8%	13.0%	2.3%	.317	4.28	22.1%	9.2%	85	-0.41	3.54	263	93
Jake Peppers R 2026 · 5.10 FIP	22	SP-	5.10	15.3%	12.2%	3.2%	.293	4.80	15.7%	0.5%	63	-0.30	4.80	160	93
Tanner Houck R 2026 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP-	4.96	16.5%	13.3%	2.9%	.294	3.10	24.3%	14.8%	215	-1.86	2.28	733	92
Kyle Johnston R 2026 · 4.52 FIP	22	SP-	4.52	16.2%	13.8%	1.9%	.290	4.08	16.4%	4.5%	194	-0.44	3.80	395	92
Jacob Meador R 2027 · 5.35 FIP	23	SP-	5.35	15.6%	14.0%	3.3%	.301	6.74	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.35	139	91
Chris McElvain R 2026 · 4.78 FIP	22	SP-	4.78	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	4.29	16.7%	6.6%	122	-0.49	4.06	218	91
David Palladino R 2026 · 4.93 FIP	22	SP-	4.93	14.4%	11.8%	2.8%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.93	122	91
Matt Ruppenthal R 2027 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.25	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.26	3.75	283	91
Aaron Davenport R 2026 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP-	4.86	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	5.01	16.9%	5.2%	391	+0.15	4.06	498	90
Braden Webb R 2026 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.79	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.34	4.45	308	90
Jason Savacool R 2026 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP-	4.79	14.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.275	4.29	16.6%	5.0%	102	-0.50	4.29	199	90
Hayden Merda R 2027 · 5.20 FIP	23	SP-	5.20	16.1%	15.3%	2.8%	.325	4.97	21.5%	6.1%	54	-0.23	4.97	150	90
Cobi Johnson R 2027 · 5.57 FIP	23	SP-	5.57	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.55	19.9%	1.4%	41	-1.02	4.55	140	90
Austin Brice R 2027 · 4.61 FIP	23	SP-	4.61	18.5%	13.7%	2.4%	.295	3.70	19.0%	12.0%	222	-0.91	3.45	542	89
Elijah Dale R 2027 · 4.57 FIP	23	SP-	4.57	16.7%	13.6%	2.1%	.239	6.46	18.4%	-1.6%	31	+1.89	4.57	140	89
Jordan Sheffield R 2026 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP-	5.07	16.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.320	5.59	22.6%	4.7%	89	+0.52	3.87	248	89
Alex Royalty R 2026 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	14.9%	11.6%	1.8%	.302	4.50	17.7%	8.6%	40	+0.17	4.33	151	88
Joe Nahas R 2026 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP-	5.15	15.2%	12.3%	3.2%	.270	4.69	16.6%	5.9%	149	-0.46	4.30	328	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.8	$16M	+$15M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.8	$17M	+$16M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+1.8	$17M	+$16M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.7	$17M	+$15M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.5	$15M	+$13M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.3	$14M	+$11M
Totals		$9M		$96M	+$87M