Bryan Mena
P
Greensboro Grasshoppers
Age 22
RHP
6'2" / 185 lbs
A+
peak 1.2 · 2031
2026 ROS PROJECTION65 act + 75 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 154145vR 136
ERA6.05
FIP6.05
K%12.8%
BB%15.5%
K-BB%-2.7%
ROS IP75
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 140 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Colorado | 13 | 2 | 34 | 142 | 35 | 10 | 1 | 15% | 2.6 | 16.8% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 0.8% | 1.57 | 3.22 | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Colorado | 13 | 2 | 34 | 142 | 35 | 10 | 1 | 15% | 2.6 | 24.6% | 7.0% | 17.6% | 0.7% | 1.57 | 2.31 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 9 | 5 | 36 | 161 | 32 | 11 | 1 | 56% | 4.0 | 13.5% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 1.0% | 4.54 | 3.61 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 9 | 5 | 36 | 161 | 32 | 11 | 1 | 56% | 4.0 | 19.9% | 6.8% | 13.0% | 0.6% | 4.54 | 2.60 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 6 | 6 | 26 | 112 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 100% | 4.3 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 0.0% | 5.26 | 2.65 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 6 | 6 | 26 | 112 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 100% | 4.3 | 25.0% | 6.2% | 18.8% | 0.0% | 5.26 | 1.74 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 13 | 79 | 353 | 83 | 42 | 9 | 65% | 4.0 | 16.4% | 14.5% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 4.99 | 5.36 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 13 | 79 | 353 | 83 | 42 | 9 | 65% | 4.0 | 23.5% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 2.5% | 4.99 | 4.07 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 29 | 18 | 107 | 498 | 97 | 57 | 9 | 62% | 3.7 | 14.4% | 13.5% | 0.9% | 3.2% | 5.62 | 5.34 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 29 | 18 | 107 | 498 | 97 | 57 | 9 | 62% | 3.7 | 19.5% | 11.4% | 8.0% | 1.8% | 5.62 | 3.98 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 17 | 9 | 65 | 292 | 48 | 30 | 14 | 53% | 3.8 | 12.7% | 11.8% | 0.8% | 6.0% | 5.15 | 6.82 | -1.6 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | PIT | 10 | 10 | 75 | 317 | 41 | 49 | 10 | 100% | 7.5 | 12.8% | 15.5% | -2.7% | 3.1% | 6.05 | 6.05 | -1.0 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 12.8% | 15.5% | -2.7% | 3.1% | 6.05 | 6.05 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 140 | 609 | 89 | 79 | 24 | — | — | 14.5% | 13.0% | 1.6% | 3.9% | 5.63 | 6.41 | -1.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 12.8% | 15.5% | -2.7% | 3.1% | 6.05 | 5.67 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 12 | 78 | 329 | 50 | 46 | 10 | 100% | 6.5 | 15.3% | 13.9% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 5.71 | 5.61 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 12 | 80 | 337 | 57 | 44 | 10 | 100% | 6.6 | 16.9% | 13.0% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 5.45 | 5.34 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 12 | 81 | 341 | 60 | 42 | 10 | 100% | 6.7 | 17.7% | 12.4% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 5.28 | 5.19 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 12 | 81 | 341 | 62 | 42 | 10 | 100% | 6.7 | 18.0% | 12.3% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 5.19 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 12 | 80 | 336 | 67 | 39 | 10 | 100% | 6.6 | 20.0% | 11.5% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 5.02 | 4.91 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 12 | 77 | 326 | 65 | 38 | 10 | 100% | 6.4 | 19.9% | 11.7% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 5.01 | 5.00 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | PIT | 6 | 6 | 38 | 160 | 25 | 22 | 5 | 100% | 6.3 | 15.3% | 13.9% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 5.71 | 5.61 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | PIT | 9 | 9 | 56 | 236 | 40 | 31 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.9% | 13.0% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 5.45 | 5.34 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | PIT | 10 | 10 | 66 | 279 | 49 | 35 | 8 | 100% | 6.6 | 17.7% | 12.4% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 5.28 | 5.19 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 11 | 11 | 71 | 300 | 54 | 37 | 9 | 100% | 6.5 | 18.0% | 12.3% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 5.19 | 5.14 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 11 | 11 | 72 | 304 | 61 | 35 | 9 | 100% | 6.5 | 20.0% | 11.5% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 5.02 | 4.91 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 11 | 11 | 71 | 300 | 60 | 35 | 9 | 100% | 6.5 | 19.9% | 11.7% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 5.01 | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 57 | 57 | 374 | 1579 | 288 | 195 | 48 | 100% | 6.6 | 18.3% | 12.3% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 5.23 | 4.78 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 31 | 31 | 200 | 844 | 154 | 104 | 26 | 100% | 6.6 | 18.3% | 12.3% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 5.23 | 4.78 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 94 | 53 | 347 | 1558 | 231 | 188 | 48 | 56% | 3.7 | 14.8% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.85 | 5.06 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 31 | 200 | 898 | 133 | 108 | 28 | 56% | 3.7 | 14.8% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.85 | 5.06 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bryan Mena (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.05 | 12.8% | 15.5% | 3.1% | — | 5.38 | 16.6% | 3.5% | 238 | -0.67 | — | — | — |
| Kevin Gowdy R 2025 · 5.62 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.62 | 11.1% | 17.0% | 2.4% | .321 | 5.82 | 16.3% | 6.0% | 130 | +0.20 | 3.31 | 333 | 86 |
| Jacob Cravey R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.20 | 14.4% | 18.0% | 1.9% | .333 | 5.70 | 14.6% | 0.7% | 120 | +0.50 | 5.13 | 204 | 86 |
| Will Childers R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.30 | 11.8% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .305 | 4.22 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 143 | -1.08 | 3.50 | 202 | 85 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.17 | 11.4% | 14.7% | 2.1% | .315 | 5.67 | 15.0% | -1.3% | 55 | +0.50 | 4.52 | 112 | 85 |
| Jacob Meador R 2027 · 5.28 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.28 | 15.6% | 14.0% | 3.1% | .301 | 6.83 | 14.7% | -6.6% | 50 | +1.55 | 5.28 | 139 | 85 |
| Cobi Johnson R 2027 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.34 | 16.0% | 14.8% | 3.1% | .257 | 4.62 | 19.9% | 1.4% | 41 | -0.72 | 4.62 | 140 | 85 |
| Ike Buxton R 2027 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 2.4% | .241 | 4.68 | 14.8% | -0.6% | 123 | -0.25 | 4.52 | 196 | 84 |
| Trey Riley R 2025 · 6.03 FIP | 21 | SP- | 6.03 | 10.6% | 19.0% | 2.6% | .344 | 6.14 | 17.4% | 5.2% | 74 | +0.11 | 4.48 | 227 | 82 |
| Boone Whiting R 2029 · 5.21 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.21 | 11.3% | 13.9% | 2.4% | .337 | 4.78 | 10.9% | 4.8% | 132 | -0.43 | 4.78 | 227 | 81 |
| Ryan Degges R 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.50 | 15.1% | 16.7% | 2.8% | .296 | 6.74 | 21.2% | 5.9% | 21 | +1.24 | 5.50 | 102 | 81 |
| Alberto Tirado R 2026 · 5.62 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.62 | 14.7% | 18.5% | 2.6% | .294 | 3.82 | 16.5% | -0.2% | 33 | -1.80 | 3.82 | 247 | 80 |
| Mason Pelio R 2027 · 6.26 FIP | 23 | SP- | 6.26 | 13.3% | 17.4% | 3.8% | .255 | 5.74 | 9.0% | -12.8% | 26 | -0.52 | 5.74 | 122 | 79 |
| Dawson Netz R 2028 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .321 | 4.42 | 23.3% | 12.6% | 51 | -0.85 | 4.42 | 102 | 79 |
| Garrett Nuss R 2026 · 5.91 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.91 | 14.1% | 14.9% | 3.8% | .352 | 4.67 | 15.0% | 5.3% | 92 | -1.24 | 4.56 | 174 | 79 |
| Zach Willeman R 2027 · 5.55 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.55 | 10.8% | 15.0% | 2.6% | .296 | 5.10 | 21.3% | 7.8% | 108 | -0.45 | 4.15 | 264 | 79 |
| Brooks Auger R 2027 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.00 | 11.8% | 11.8% | 2.5% | .299 | 3.81 | 26.3% | 14.4% | 46 | -1.19 | 3.81 | 138 | 79 |
| James McArthur R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.37 | 18.8% | 15.5% | 3.5% | .304 | 4.20 | 20.0% | 10.7% | 131 | -1.17 | 3.53 | 352 | 79 |
| Matt Ager R 2026 · 5.81 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.81 | 10.4% | 15.5% | 2.9% | .281 | 5.00 | 17.1% | 8.5% | 70 | -0.81 | 5.00 | 146 | 78 |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.92 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 2.5% | .340 | 4.59 | 20.2% | 6.4% | 111 | -0.33 | 4.45 | 194 | 78 |
| Jol Concepcion R 2026 · 6.53 FIP | 22 | SW | 6.53 | 12.2% | 20.0% | 3.5% | .272 | 4.65 | 23.9% | 3.9% | 50 | -1.88 | 4.65 | 154 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 79 | 17.3% | 12.9% | 1.17 | 5.38 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Trevor Cahill ('21) | 7 | 67 | 21.3% | 10.1% | 1.29 | 4.66 |