Cade Citelli
P
Bowling Green Hot Rods
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION23 act + 36 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122112vR 103
ERA4.52
FIP4.52
K%23.2%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%12.5%
ROS IP36
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 51 | 210 | 62 | 27 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.1% | 15.1% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 3.91 | 4.67 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 51 | 210 | 62 | 27 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.5% | 12.9% | 16.7% | 2.4% | 3.91 | 3.53 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 19 | 0 | 23 | 105 | 19 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 13.9% | 17.5% | -3.6% | 6.0% | 5.09 | 7.41 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TB | 34 | 0 | 36 | 150 | 35 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TB | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.2% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.52 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | TB | — | — | 58 | 255 | 54 | 32 | 10 | — | — | 21.1% | 12.5% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 4.74 | 5.66 | -0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | TB | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 23.2% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.14 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TB | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 36 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 10.0% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TB | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 10.0% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.40 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 15 | 0 | 16 | 66 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 10.0% | 13.5% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.02 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 205 | 90 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 10.0% | 13.5% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.02 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 58 | 0 | 74 | 315 | 61 | 50 | 12 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.4% | 15.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.28 | 5.59 | -0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 157 | 0 | 200 | 855 | 166 | 136 | 33 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.4% | 15.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.28 | 5.59 | -0.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cade Citelli (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 3.0% | — | 4.40 | 23.6% | 13.6% | 36 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.48 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .261 | 4.12 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 138 | -0.36 | 3.77 | 166 | 93 |
| Austin Smith R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 134 | 92 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.63 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .282 | 3.31 | 22.5% | 16.6% | 72 | -0.32 | 2.25 | 121 | 90 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 89 |
| Stephen Jones R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.45 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .304 | 4.55 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.10 | 3.45 | 289 | 89 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.49 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .233 | 3.63 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.86 | 3.51 | 156 | 89 |
| Zach Franklin R 2027 · 3.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.53 | 26.4% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .301 | 4.31 | 28.4% | 19.1% | 97 | +0.78 | 3.48 | 138 | 88 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 88 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.84 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.90 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | +0.06 | 3.40 | 134 | 88 |
| Vince Vannelle R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.77 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 2.3% | .282 | 5.34 | 15.3% | 4.5% | 76 | +1.57 | 3.77 | 105 | 88 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 88 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2028 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 88 |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.2% | .293 | 7.95 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.39 | 4.55 | 155 | 88 |
| Cre Finfrock R 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.45 | 23.0% | 11.7% | 3.3% | .278 | 6.27 | 16.7% | -8.5% | 36 | +1.82 | 4.27 | 103 | 87 |
| Kyle Martin R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.62 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.0% | .345 | 3.45 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 172 | -0.17 | 3.02 | 214 | 87 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 87 |
| Johnny Barbato R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.73 | 22.4% | 11.2% | 2.0% | .282 | 4.95 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 105 | +1.22 | 2.65 | 304 | 87 |
| Cole Ayers R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.1% | 9.9% | 2.5% | .298 | 5.00 | 15.2% | -0.4% | 32 | +1.14 | 3.52 | 171 | 86 |
| Todd Van Steensel R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.69 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 1.9% | .294 | 3.33 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 157 | -0.36 | 2.87 | 223 | 86 |
| Cameron Gann R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.16 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 2.4% | .296 | 5.44 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 23 | +1.28 | 3.52 | 146 | 86 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 36 | 23.4% | 10.3% | 1.16 | 4.48 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |