Cade Citelli — OGILVIE

Cade Citelli P Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.98

FIP4.98

K%22.7%

BB%14.0%

K-BB%8.8%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	51	210	62	27	5	0%	1.3	22.1%	15.1%	7.0%	2.9%	3.91	4.72	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	51	210	62	27	5	0%	1.3	22.1%	15.1%	7.0%	2.9%	3.91	4.72	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	51	210	62	27	5	0%	1.3	29.5%	12.9%	16.7%	2.4%	3.91	3.53	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	31	0	44	194	45	24	8	0%	1.4	17.9%	14.2%	3.6%	5.2%	4.06	6.22	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	31	0	44	194	45	24	8	0%	1.4	17.9%	14.2%	3.6%	5.2%	4.06	6.22	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	TB	31	0	44	194	45	24	8	0%	1.4	23.2%	12.4%	10.8%	4.1%	4.06	4.97	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TB	44	0	46	195	45	24	6	0%	1.1	23.2%	12.5%	10.7%	3.0%	4.81	4.75	-0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	TB	44	0	46	195	46	24	6	0%	1.1	23.4%	12.2%	11.2%	3.0%	4.73	4.69	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	TB	19	0	20	84	20	11	3	0%	1.1	23.2%	12.5%	10.7%	3.0%	4.81	4.75	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	TB	30	0	31	131	31	16	4	0%	1.0	23.4%	12.2%	11.2%	3.0%	4.73	4.69	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		48	0	51	213	50	26	6	0%	1.1	23.3%	12.3%	11.0%	3.0%	4.76	4.33	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	198	103	24	0%	1.1	23.3%	12.3%	11.0%	3.0%	4.76	4.33	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		70	0	95	404	81	59	16	0%	1.4	20.1%	14.7%	5.4%	4.0%	3.98	5.44	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		147	0	200	851	171	125	34	0%	1.4	20.1%	14.7%	5.4%	4.0%	3.98	5.44	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cade Citelli (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.98	22.7%	14.0%	3.0%	—	4.72	23.3%	11.0%	92	-0.26	—	—	—
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	95
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	92
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	92
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	91
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	91
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	91
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	90
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	90
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	90
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	89
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	89
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	89
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	88
Aaron Kurcz R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	22.4%	13.6%	1.9%	.331	4.05	16.1%	8.0%	105	+0.07	3.31	213	88
Jake Gilbert R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SU	4.14	22.1%	15.2%	1.8%	.314	4.65	18.2%	2.0%	53	+0.51	4.14	103	88
Reid Schaller R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	20.2%	13.1%	2.8%	.298	3.89	22.0%	11.4%	90	-0.71	3.61	186	87
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.80	21.5%	10.0%	115	-0.58	4.73	183	87
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	87
Andrew McInvale R 2021 · 4.92 FIP	24	SU	4.92	26.4%	16.3%	3.6%	.278	5.66	20.3%	5.0%	58	+0.74	4.92	103	87
David Garner R 2017 · 5.19 FIP	24	SU	5.19	21.5%	13.8%	3.9%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	154	87

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	43	23.1%	12.8%	1.16	4.83
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64