Luis Martinez — OGILVIE

Luis Martinez P ACL Royals

Age 23 LHP 6'1" / 180 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 12 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109117vR 125

ERA4.85

FIP4.85

K%22.6%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%9.7%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals White	11	3	20	109	23	26	2	27%	1.8	14.3%	29.8%	-15.5%	2.6%	9.61	7.08	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Royals White	11	3	20	109	23	26	2	27%	1.8	21.1%	23.9%	-2.8%	1.8%	9.61	6.05	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL KC Glass	11	0	18	95	26	23	0	0%	1.7	18.6%	30.3%	-11.7%	0.0%	5.89	5.36	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL KC Glass	11	0	18	95	26	23	0	0%	1.7	27.4%	24.2%	3.2%	0.0%	5.89	4.03	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	13	0	21	104	30	12	3	0%	1.6	19.6%	14.4%	5.2%	4.0%	9.15	5.49	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	13	0	21	104	30	12	3	0%	1.6	28.8%	11.5%	17.3%	2.9%	9.15	3.83	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	16	1	19	112	19	20	2	6%	1.2	11.5%	22.3%	-10.8%	2.6%	14.90	6.40	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	16	1	19	112	19	20	2	6%	1.2	11.5%	22.3%	-10.8%	2.6%	14.90	6.40	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	16	1	19	112	19	20	2	6%	1.2	17.0%	17.9%	-0.9%	1.8%	14.90	5.58	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	KC	11	0	12	51	11	7	2	0%	1.1	22.6%	12.9%	9.7%	3.0%	4.85	4.85	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	KC	19	0	20	84	20	10	3	0%	1.1	23.2%	11.6%	11.6%	3.0%	4.69	4.62	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	KC	9	0	9	38	9	4	1	0%	1.0	23.2%	11.6%	11.6%	3.0%	4.69	4.62	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	4	1	0%	1.1	23.2%	11.6%	11.6%	3.0%	4.69	4.24	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	94	23	0%	1.1	23.2%	11.6%	11.6%	3.0%	4.69	4.24	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		51	4	78	420	67	101	10	8%	1.5	15.9%	24.1%	-8.2%	2.4%	9.92	6.11	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		131	10	200	1077	171	260	26	8%	1.5	15.9%	24.1%	-8.2%	2.4%	9.92	6.11	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.85	22.6%	12.9%	3.0%	—	4.62	23.2%	11.6%	20	-0.23	—	—	—
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	86
Will Ohman L 2001 · 4.66 FIP	23	SU	4.66	22.2%	11.1%	3.7%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	350	84
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	84
Harry Gustin L 2024 · 3.91 FIP	22	SU	3.91	20.7%	11.0%	2.1%	.331	4.33	22.9%	12.7%	109	+0.42	3.70	152	84
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	83
Fred Schlichtholz L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	12.8%	2.6%	.368	4.13	18.5%	8.4%	80	-0.10	3.49	175	83
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	83
Brian Marconi L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	24	SU	3.89	25.3%	12.3%	2.5%	.265	5.02	20.3%	2.1%	57	+1.13	3.89	101	83
Andrew Tomasovich L 2017 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	21.1%	13.5%	1.8%	.333	4.04	20.3%	6.9%	52	+0.05	3.87	126	83
Hector Mercado L 2000 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	21.7%	13.3%	3.3%	.270	4.22	22.9%	10.0%	111	-0.57	3.47	125	83
Jared Tobey L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	21.0%	12.1%	2.1%	.320	5.43	22.4%	8.2%	73	+1.44	3.99	158	82
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.89	22.1%	8.8%	105	-0.31	3.14	161	82
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	81
Nick Hagadone L 2012 · 4.74 FIP	26	SU	4.74	22.4%	12.9%	3.5%	.310	3.88	24.6%	14.7%	82	-0.86	2.97	141	81
Houston Harding L 2022 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	20.2%	10.5%	4.7%	.307	4.87	17.3%	4.9%	158	-0.43	3.41	239	81
Robert Garcia L 2019 · 4.35 FIP	23	SU	4.35	24.0%	11.4%	3.3%	.342	4.38	22.0%	10.4%	106	+0.03	2.21	471	81
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	81
Brandon Neeck L 2023 · 4.19 FIP	23	SU	4.19	21.0%	13.9%	2.0%	.419	4.24	22.9%	8.7%	176	+0.05	3.24	203	80
Lucas Knowles L 2021 · 3.90 FIP	23	SW	3.90	20.5%	12.9%	1.6%	.366	4.22	18.5%	9.4%	177	+0.32	3.37	308	80
Mike Zagurski L 2007 · 4.10 FIP	24	SU	4.10	20.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	79