Jedixson Paez — OGILVIE

Jedixson Paez P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.4 · 2029 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION71 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9789vR 81

ERA3.35

FIP3.35

K%21.2%

BB%2.1%

K-BB%19.1%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 75 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL—70

CMD5570

K†5055

CT (14%)

CH (27%)

SI (13%)

CU (16%)

FB-2.9 (43%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.2M	+$0.1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$5M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$8M	+1.0	$6M	+$0.3M
2031	Arb-3	$13M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$10M		$17M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Blue	13	13	50	204	49	9	5	100%	3.9	16.3%	5.5%	10.8%	2.4%	2.86	3.71	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL BOS Blue	13	13	50	204	49	9	5	100%	3.9	24.0%	4.4%	19.6%	2.5%	2.86	2.98	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	13	10	57	233	49	13	2	77%	4.4	14.3%	7.0%	7.3%	1.3%	3.63	3.48	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	13	10	57	233	49	13	2	77%	4.4	21.0%	5.6%	15.5%	0.9%	3.63	2.52	—
2023	19	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	18	16	84	338	73	12	7	89%	4.7	16.0%	4.2%	11.8%	2.7%	3.31	3.76	—
2023	19	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	18	16	84	338	73	12	7	89%	4.7	16.0%	4.2%	11.8%	2.7%	3.31	3.76	—
2023	19	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	18	16	84	338	73	12	7	89%	4.7	21.6%	3.6%	18.0%	2.1%	3.31	2.87	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	12	97	390	113	12	11	55%	4.4	22.0%	3.6%	18.5%	3.4%	3.17	3.57	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	12	97	390	113	12	11	55%	4.4	22.0%	3.6%	18.5%	3.4%	3.17	3.57	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	12	97	390	113	12	11	55%	4.4	29.0%	3.1%	25.9%	2.8%	3.17	2.61	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	7	7	19	83	23	3	4	100%	2.8	21.3%	4.2%	17.2%	5.4%	2.79	4.78	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	7	7	19	83	23	3	4	100%	2.8	21.3%	4.2%	17.2%	5.4%	2.79	4.78	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	7	7	19	83	23	3	4	100%	2.8	27.7%	3.6%	24.1%	4.8%	2.79	3.88	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	1	7	39	3	5	4	25%	1.7	7.7%	12.8%	-5.1%	10.3%	18.90	12.25	-0.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	25	12	71	293	81	13	14	48%	2.9	25.0%	3.2%	21.8%	4.6%	5.30	3.94	—
YTD	22	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	25	12	71	293	81	13	14	48%	2.9	25.0%	3.2%	21.8%	4.6%	5.30	3.94	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	AA RAW	BOS	17	7	49	193	56	5	8	41%	2.9	29.0%	2.6%	26.4%	4.1%	4.41	3.25	—
2026	22	AAA RAW	BOS	4	4	16	61	22	3	2	100%	3.9	36.1%	4.9%	31.1%	3.3%	2.30	2.48	—
2026	22	MLB RAW	BOS	4	1	7	39	3	5	4	25%	1.7	7.7%	12.8%	-5.1%	10.3%	18.90	9.70	—
SO FAR	22	MLB RAW	BOS	4	1	7	39	3	5	4	25%	1.7	7.7%	12.8%	-5.1%	10.3%	18.90	9.70	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	BOS	4	0	4	16	3	0	1	0%	0.9	21.2%	2.1%	19.1%	3.2%	3.35	3.35	+0.1
ROS	22	MLB CTX	BOS	4	0	4	17	4	0	1	0%	1.0	21.2%	2.1%	19.1%	3.2%	3.31	3.31	+0.1
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	75	309	84	13	15	—	—	27.3%	4.3%	23.0%	4.7%	5.20	3.91	+0.7
FULL	22	MLB A+C	BOS	—	—	10	44	84	13	15	—	—	191.6%	30.3%	161.3%	32.9%	37.45	8.83	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	BOS	17	17	90	381	78	12	14	100%	5.3	20.4%	3.2%	17.2%	3.6%	4.20	4.15	+0.8
2028	24	MLB MLE	BOS	17	17	93	391	83	13	14	100%	5.4	21.2%	3.4%	17.8%	3.5%	4.11	4.06	+0.9
2029	25	MLB MLE	BOS	16	16	94	396	86	14	14	100%	5.9	21.6%	3.4%	18.1%	3.5%	4.05	4.01	+1.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	BOS	16	16	94	396	86	14	14	100%	5.9	21.8%	3.5%	18.3%	3.5%	4.02	3.99	+1.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	92	390	85	14	14	100%	6.2	21.8%	3.6%	18.2%	3.5%	4.03	4.03	+1.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	90	378	82	14	14	100%	6.0	21.7%	3.7%	17.9%	3.6%	4.08	4.11	+0.8
2033	29	MLB MLE	BOS	14	14	86	361	77	14	14	100%	6.1	21.4%	4.0%	17.5%	3.8%	4.18	4.24	+0.7
2034	30	MLB MLE	BOS	13	13	80	340	72	14	14	100%	6.2	21.1%	4.3%	16.8%	4.0%	4.33	4.42	+0.5
2035	31	MLB MLE	BOS	13	13	75	317	72	12	13	100%	5.8	22.7%	3.8%	18.9%	4.2%	4.34	4.35	+0.5
2036	32	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	70	293	65	12	13	100%	5.8	22.2%	4.2%	18.0%	4.5%	4.48	4.58	+0.3
2037	33	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	64	269	59	13	13	100%	5.8	21.7%	4.7%	17.1%	4.7%	4.69	4.83	+0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	BOS	16	16	86	363	74	12	13	100%	5.4	20.4%	3.2%	17.2%	3.5%	4.15	4.10	+0.8
2028	24	MLB CTX	BOS	16	16	88	372	79	12	13	100%	5.5	21.2%	3.4%	17.8%	3.4%	4.06	4.01	+0.9
2029	25	MLB CTX	BOS	15	15	89	376	81	13	13	100%	5.9	21.6%	3.4%	18.1%	3.4%	4.00	3.96	+0.9
2030	26	MLB CTX	BOS	15	15	89	376	82	13	13	100%	5.9	21.8%	3.5%	18.3%	3.4%	3.97	3.94	+1.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	BOS	15	15	88	372	81	13	13	100%	5.9	21.8%	3.6%	18.2%	3.4%	3.98	3.98	+0.9
2032	28	MLB CTX	BOS	14	14	85	359	78	13	13	100%	6.1	21.7%	3.7%	17.9%	3.5%	4.03	4.06	+0.8
2033	29	MLB CTX	BOS	14	14	81	342	73	14	13	100%	5.8	21.4%	4.0%	17.5%	3.7%	4.13	4.19	+0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	BOS	13	13	76	321	68	14	12	100%	5.8	21.1%	4.3%	16.8%	3.9%	4.28	4.37	+0.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	BOS	12	12	71	300	68	11	12	100%	5.9	22.7%	3.8%	18.9%	4.1%	4.28	4.29	+0.5
2036	32	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	66	279	62	12	12	100%	6.0	22.2%	4.2%	18.0%	4.3%	4.42	4.52	+0.2
2037	33	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	61	258	56	12	12	100%	6.1	21.7%	4.7%	17.1%	4.6%	4.63	4.77	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		157	151	891	3773	808	145	142	96%	5.7	21.4%	3.8%	17.6%	3.8%	4.26	3.85	+11.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	34	200	847	181	33	32	96%	5.7	21.4%	3.8%	17.6%	3.8%	4.26	3.85	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		98	70	379	1541	298	68	48	71%	3.9	19.3%	4.4%	14.9%	3.1%	3.61	3.75	+6.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	37	200	813	157	36	26	71%	3.9	19.3%	4.4%	14.9%	3.1%	3.61	3.75	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jedixson Paez (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.76	20.6%	2.0%	3.2%	—	4.07	21.1%	17.7%	277	+0.31	—	—	—
Adam Bray R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	22	SP-	4.81	14.9%	3.3%	4.6%	.339	4.29	18.2%	13.1%	242	-0.52	3.33	370	72
Miller Hogan R 2019 · 3.39 FIP	23	SW	3.39	18.4%	3.4%	2.6%	.294	4.94	19.3%	14.1%	89	+1.55	3.39	168	70
Adam Mazur R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	22	SP-	3.22	18.0%	4.9%	1.9%	.326	4.90	17.7%	10.8%	264	+1.68	3.22	360	67
Tzu-Chen Sha R 2023 · 4.29 FIP	19	SP-	4.29	16.4%	4.3%	3.7%	.335	5.24	13.6%	5.5%	257	+0.95	4.21	309	67
Aaron Brown R 2021 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	25.3%	4.3%	5.4%	.340	4.85	18.6%	10.5%	326	+0.38	3.98	418	67
Gabe Friese R 2017 · 3.64 FIP	22	SW	3.64	15.8%	3.0%	2.7%	.282	4.71	10.3%	3.2%	61	+1.07	3.64	115	66
Evan McKendry R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	18.4%	5.5%	3.6%	.256	5.11	18.0%	11.7%	324	+0.91	4.20	474	66
Sam Tewes R 2017 · 3.72 FIP	22	SP-	3.72	14.0%	3.7%	2.4%	.340	4.71	11.2%	3.5%	61	+0.99	3.72	105	65
Duque Hebbert R 2023 · 3.18 FIP	21	SP-	3.18	17.8%	4.8%	1.8%	.324	4.54	13.4%	6.1%	130	+1.36	3.18	168	65
Maiker Manuel R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	21	SW	4.62	15.3%	3.8%	4.2%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	148	64
Nathan Wiles R 2022 · 4.88 FIP	24	SP	4.88	15.6%	3.6%	4.8%	.266	4.49	17.0%	10.9%	311	-0.39	4.22	399	64
Grant Holman R 2022 · 3.04 FIP	22	SP-	3.04	17.4%	3.7%	1.7%	.319	4.01	22.5%	12.8%	120	+0.97	3.04	201	64
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	64
Angel Jimenez R 2023 · 3.31 FIP	20	SP	3.31	23.3%	5.1%	2.8%	.368	4.43	21.1%	10.0%	144	+1.12	3.24	223	64
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	63
Matt Eckelman R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP	4.30	15.6%	4.7%	3.5%	.265	4.44	16.3%	5.4%	169	+0.14	4.07	386	62
Lucas Long R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP-	4.84	14.5%	5.9%	4.0%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.1%	386	-0.90	3.42	441	62
Dylan Unsworth R 2015 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP-	3.78	16.9%	4.2%	2.9%	.333	4.05	14.2%	9.5%	270	+0.27	3.05	377	62
Dylan Smith R 2022 · 3.77 FIP	22	SP	3.77	19.0%	6.9%	2.5%	.305	4.38	21.3%	10.1%	117	+0.61	2.35	255	61
Jojanse Torres R 2018 · 2.67 FIP	22	SP-	2.67	19.5%	6.0%	0.8%	.318	4.14	21.0%	6.1%	114	+1.47	2.67	194	61

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.8	81	21.5%	3.7%	1.46	4.19
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Wade LeBlanc ('21)	2.4	81	18.0%	6.0%	1.67	4.61
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04