Jedixson Paez
P
Chicago White Sox
+0.5
WAR
Age 22
RHP
6'1" / 170 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.5 · 2028
ERA4.24
FIP4.24
xFIP9.82
SIERA9.00
K%22.6%
BB%7.1%
K-BB%15.5%
IP42
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2028
K†5560
CT (17%)
CH (23%)
SI (14%)
CU (11%)
FB-2.9 (49%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL BOS Blue | 13 | 13 | 50 | 204 | 49 | 9 | 5 | 16.3% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 2.86 | 3.50 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 13 | 10 | 57 | 233 | 49 | 13 | 2 | 14.3% | 7.0% | 1.3% | 3.63 | 3.50 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Salem Red Sox | 18 | 16 | 84 | 338 | 73 | 12 | 7 | 16.0% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 3.31 | 3.76 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 22 | 12 | 97 | 390 | 113 | 12 | 11 | 22.0% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.17 | 3.58 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 7 | 7 | 19 | 83 | 23 | 3 | 4 | 21.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 2.79 | 4.86 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 3 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 3 | 2 | — | — | — | 18.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | CWS | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 37 | 12 | 5 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 4.24 | 4.24 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 42 | 179 | 37 | 15 | 7 | 20.6% | 8.2% | 4.1% | 5.23 | 3.93 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | CWS | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 43 | 13 | 6 | 23.4% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 4.18 | 4.13 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | CWS | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 45 | 13 | 6 | 24.0% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 4.11 | 4.05 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 46 | 13 | 6 | 24.3% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 4.05 | 4.01 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 47 | 13 | 6 | 24.5% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 4.02 | 3.99 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 46 | 13 | 6 | 24.5% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 4.01 | 4.00 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 45 | 13 | 6 | 24.5% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 4.02 | 4.03 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 44 | 13 | 6 | 24.3% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 4.05 | 4.07 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 43 | 13 | 6 | 24.1% | 7.2% | 3.2% | 4.10 | 4.13 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 41 | 12 | 6 | 23.9% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 4.17 | 4.21 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 38 | 12 | 6 | 23.6% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 4.24 | 4.29 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 37 | — | 37 | 156 | 36 | 12 | 5 | 23.3% | 7.7% | 3.5% | 4.33 | 4.39 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 34 | 12 | 5 | 23.0% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 4.43 | 4.50 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | CWS | 33 | — | 33 | 140 | 32 | 11 | 5 | 22.6% | 8.1% | 3.7% | 4.55 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 76 | 58 | 311 | 1264 | 224 | 62 | 36 | 17.7% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 3.36 | 3.80 | +5.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 37 | 200 | 814 | 144 | 40 | 23 | 17.7% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 3.36 | 3.80 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jedixson Paez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.24 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 3.2% | — | 4.06 | 23.9% | 16.9% | 133 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Sauryn Lao R 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.33 | 23.8% | 5.2% | 2.9% | .367 | 3.31 | 21.0% | 12.8% | 128 | -0.02 | 3.17 | 182 | 78 |
| Kyle Keller R 2027 · 3.28 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.28 | 22.1% | 8.0% | 1.9% | .308 | 3.15 | 26.7% | 17.4% | 167 | -0.13 | 2.73 | 264 | 78 |
| Clayton McGinness R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.85 | 19.4% | 4.5% | 3.3% | .291 | 4.63 | 18.7% | 7.8% | 84 | +0.78 | 3.85 | 106 | 77 |
| William Fleming R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.17 | 22.6% | 4.9% | 4.3% | .267 | 5.06 | 13.2% | 3.9% | 334 | +0.89 | 4.05 | 409 | 76 |
| Solomon Bates R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.48 | 24.0% | 4.5% | 3.3% | .360 | 5.45 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 91 | +1.97 | 3.48 | 134 | 76 |
| Scooter Hightower R 2025 · 3.23 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.23 | 18.7% | 4.4% | 2.1% | .304 | 2.85 | 19.6% | 14.6% | 68 | -0.38 | 2.85 | 160 | 75 |
| Nick Kingham R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.57 | 20.7% | 5.4% | 2.8% | .330 | 3.90 | 18.0% | 12.1% | 276 | +0.33 | 2.31 | 363 | 75 |
| Matt Russell R 2026 · 2.83 FIP | 22 | SU | 2.83 | 21.1% | 4.6% | 1.7% | .314 | 4.36 | 15.1% | 3.4% | 160 | +1.53 | 2.83 | 178 | 75 |
| Wilmer Rios R 2025 · 2.80 FIP | 21 | SU | 2.80 | 19.5% | 2.1% | 2.0% | .291 | 4.90 | 16.3% | 10.5% | 40 | +2.10 | 2.80 | 156 | 74 |
| John Fasola R 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.82 | 21.5% | 5.7% | 3.3% | .294 | 2.97 | 19.8% | 11.6% | 58 | -0.85 | 2.72 | 124 | 74 |
| Koda Glover R 2026 · 3.01 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.01 | 20.8% | 1.2% | 2.8% | .288 | 3.35 | 20.5% | 13.4% | 102 | +0.34 | 2.64 | 126 | 74 |
| Olbis Parra R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.04 | 18.7% | 4.7% | 3.5% | .358 | 3.40 | 15.5% | 11.4% | 119 | -0.64 | 3.34 | 138 | 74 |
| Daniel Bies R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 24.5% | 6.8% | 3.8% | .339 | 3.16 | 20.3% | 11.0% | 89 | -0.80 | 3.16 | 115 | 74 |
| Cole Stapler R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.83 | 19.2% | 6.0% | 2.9% | .266 | 3.31 | 18.1% | 13.2% | 220 | -0.52 | 3.25 | 255 | 74 |
| Ryan Watson R 2027 · 3.10 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.10 | 21.9% | 6.8% | 1.8% | .324 | 4.59 | 19.8% | 10.3% | 229 | +1.49 | 3.10 | 355 | 74 |
| Austin Hutchison R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.05 | 19.7% | 6.0% | 3.4% | .340 | 4.57 | 18.7% | 9.2% | 213 | +0.52 | 3.52 | 235 | 74 |
| Michael Tonkin R 2029 · 3.08 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.08 | 23.8% | 4.9% | 2.5% | .240 | 3.81 | 27.2% | 18.6% | 134 | +0.73 | 2.30 | 480 | 73 |
| Davis Sharpe R 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.28 | 23.8% | 4.6% | 2.9% | .267 | 4.47 | 18.2% | 10.9% | 189 | +1.19 | 3.28 | 260 | 73 |
| Connor Schultz R 2029 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.89 | 19.7% | 5.3% | 3.2% | .283 | 3.52 | 18.5% | 12.1% | 89 | -0.37 | 3.52 | 136 | 73 |
| Dan Slania R 2027 · 3.37 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.37 | 23.2% | 5.4% | 2.8% | .335 | 4.51 | 17.5% | 8.7% | 331 | +1.14 | 3.37 | 403 | 73 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2027
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2032
First FA Year 2033
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2027 | |||
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.8M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $1M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.3M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.5 | $2M | -$0.6M |
| Totals | $9M | $13M | +$4M | ||