Jedixson Paez — OGILVIE

Jedixson Paez P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.6 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 42 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10596vR 87

ERA3.75

FIP3.75

K%20.6%

BB%2.2%

K-BB%18.4%

ROS IP42

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL—70

CMD5570

K†5055

CT (17%)

CH (23%)

SI (14%)

CU (11%)

FB-2.9 (49%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	+0.4	$2M	+$1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$4M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$5M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL BOS Blue	13	13	50	204	49	9	5	100%	3.9	16.3%	5.5%	10.8%	1.8%	2.86	3.40	—
2021	17	ROK	DSL BOS Blue	13	13	50	204	49	9	5	100%	3.9	24.0%	4.4%	19.6%	2.5%	2.86	2.98	—
2022	18	ROK	FCL Red Sox	13	10	57	233	49	13	2	77%	4.4	14.3%	7.0%	7.3%	1.4%	3.63	3.52	—
2022	18	ROK	FCL Red Sox	13	10	57	233	49	13	2	77%	4.4	21.0%	5.6%	15.5%	0.9%	3.63	2.52	—
2023	19	A	Salem Red Sox	18	16	84	338	73	12	7	89%	4.7	16.0%	4.2%	11.8%	2.7%	3.31	3.76	—
2023	19	A	Salem Red Sox	18	16	84	338	73	12	7	89%	4.7	21.6%	3.6%	18.0%	2.1%	3.31	2.87	—
2024	20	MIX	2 levels	22	12	97	390	113	12	11	55%	4.4	22.0%	3.6%	18.5%	3.3%	3.17	3.52	—
2024	20	MIX	2 levels	22	12	97	390	113	12	11	55%	4.4	29.0%	3.1%	25.9%	2.8%	3.17	2.61	—
2025	21	A+	Greenville Drive	7	7	19	83	23	3	4	100%	2.8	21.3%	4.2%	17.2%	4.9%	2.79	4.50	—
2025	21	A+	Greenville Drive	7	7	19	83	23	3	4	100%	2.8	27.7%	3.6%	24.1%	4.8%	2.79	3.88	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	MLB	Chicago White Sox	15	5	38	147	37	7	7	33%	2.5	22.9%	3.4%	19.5%	4.6%	4.97	4.11	+0.2
ROS	22	MLB	CWS	40	0	42	176	36	4	6	0%	1.0	20.6%	2.2%	18.4%	3.2%	3.75	3.75	+0.4
ROS	22	MLB	CWS	40	0	42	177	37	4	6	0%	1.1	20.6%	2.2%	18.4%	3.2%	3.78	3.78	+0.4
2026 TOT	22	MLB	CWS	—	—	80	323	73	11	13	—	—	22.7%	3.3%	19.3%	3.9%	4.33	3.92	+1.0
2026 FULL	22	MLB	CWS	—	—	45	188	73	11	13	—	—	38.9%	5.7%	33.1%	6.7%	7.76	4.24	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	CWS	8	8	46	195	42	5	6	100%	5.8	21.6%	2.5%	19.1%	3.1%	3.73	3.68	+0.5
2028	24	MLB	CWS	8	8	48	201	45	6	6	100%	5.9	22.3%	2.8%	19.5%	3.1%	3.70	3.64	+0.5
2029	25	MLB	CWS	8	8	48	203	46	6	6	100%	6.0	22.7%	3.0%	19.7%	3.1%	3.66	3.62	+0.5
2030	26	MLB	CWS	8	8	48	203	47	6	6	100%	6.0	23.0%	3.1%	19.8%	3.1%	3.64	3.61	+0.5
2031	27	MLB	CWS	8	8	47	200	46	6	6	100%	5.9	22.9%	3.2%	19.7%	3.1%	3.65	3.65	+0.5
2032	28	MLB	CWS	8	8	46	194	44	7	6	100%	5.8	22.8%	3.4%	19.5%	3.2%	3.70	3.74	+0.4
2027	23	MLB	CWS	8	8	44	186	40	5	6	100%	5.5	21.6%	2.5%	19.1%	3.2%	3.76	3.71	+0.4
2028	24	MLB	CWS	8	8	45	190	42	5	6	100%	5.6	22.3%	2.8%	19.5%	3.1%	3.73	3.67	+0.5
2029	25	MLB	CWS	8	8	46	194	44	6	6	100%	5.8	22.7%	3.0%	19.7%	3.1%	3.69	3.65	+0.5
2030	26	MLB	CWS	8	8	46	194	45	6	6	100%	5.8	23.0%	3.1%	19.8%	3.1%	3.67	3.64	+0.5
2031	27	MLB	CWS	8	8	45	190	44	6	6	100%	5.6	22.9%	3.2%	19.7%	3.2%	3.68	3.68	+0.5
2032	28	MLB	CWS	7	7	44	186	42	6	6	100%	6.3	22.8%	3.4%	19.5%	3.3%	3.73	3.77	+0.4
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			89	46	314	1328	293	41	43	52%	3.5	22.0%	3.1%	18.9%	3.3%	3.86	3.43	+7.2
/ 200 IP	—			57	29	200	847	187	26	27	52%	3.5	22.0%	3.1%	18.9%	3.3%	3.86	3.43	+4.6
Career	—			88	63	346	1395	258	64	40	72%	3.9	18.5%	4.6%	13.9%	2.8%	3.41	3.68	+6.9
/ 200 IP	—			51	36	200	807	149	37	23	72%	3.9	18.5%	4.6%	13.9%	2.8%	3.41	3.68	+4.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jedixson Paez (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.75	20.6%	2.2%	3.2%	—	3.65	22.2%	19.4%	142	-0.10	—	—	—
Aaron Brown R 2026 · 4.09 FIP	22	SP-	4.09	25.3%	4.3%	4.7%	.340	4.84	18.6%	10.5%	326	+0.75	3.70	418	71
Miller Hogan R 2027 · 3.14 FIP	23	SW	3.14	18.4%	3.4%	2.1%	.294	4.99	19.3%	14.1%	89	+1.85	3.14	168	70
Adam Mazur R 2026 · 3.48 FIP	22	SP-	3.48	18.0%	4.9%	2.3%	.326	5.15	18.4%	11.0%	264	+1.67	3.48	360	69
Adam Bray R 2026 · 4.81 FIP	22	SP-	4.81	14.9%	3.3%	4.6%	.339	4.19	18.2%	13.1%	242	-0.62	3.27	370	67
Gabe Friese R 2026 · 3.64 FIP	22	SW	3.64	15.8%	3.0%	2.7%	.282	4.69	10.3%	3.2%	61	+1.05	3.64	115	65
Grant Holman R 2026 · 3.10 FIP	22	SP-	3.10	17.4%	3.7%	1.8%	.319	4.09	22.8%	12.7%	120	+0.99	3.08	184	65
Kevin Gadea R 2025 · 3.12 FIP	21	SP-	3.12	24.8%	6.0%	2.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	196	64
Evan McKendry R 2027 · 4.24 FIP	23	SW	4.24	18.4%	5.5%	3.6%	.256	5.40	18.7%	11.6%	324	+1.16	4.14	474	64
Sam Tewes R 2026 · 4.08 FIP	22	SP-	4.08	14.0%	3.7%	3.1%	.340	4.68	11.2%	3.5%	61	+0.60	4.08	105	63
Hunter Dollander R 2029 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	19.2%	5.7%	2.9%	.311	6.73	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.92	3.81	106	63
Jojanse Torres R 2026 · 2.67 FIP	22	SP-	2.67	19.5%	6.0%	0.8%	.318	4.20	21.0%	6.1%	114	+1.53	2.67	194	63
Braxton Bragg R 2027 · 3.78 FIP	23	SP	3.78	22.3%	6.4%	3.2%	.325	2.47	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.31	2.47	155	62
Ryan Lobus R 2027 · 3.66 FIP	23	SP-	3.66	27.0%	7.2%	3.5%	.277	3.61	22.2%	12.4%	99	-0.05	3.60	187	62
Bailey Ober R 2026 · 3.10 FIP	22	SP-	3.10	21.4%	3.4%	2.5%	.310	2.37	24.1%	20.6%	145	-0.73	1.73	901	62
Dylan Unsworth R 2026 · 3.88 FIP	22	SP-	3.88	16.9%	4.2%	3.0%	.333	4.08	14.2%	9.5%	270	+0.20	3.06	377	62
Connor Cooke R 2026 · 3.47 FIP	22	SP-	3.47	23.7%	8.4%	2.4%	.350	4.29	24.6%	10.4%	56	+0.82	2.92	103	62
Maiker Manuel R 2025 · 4.62 FIP	21	SW	4.62	15.3%	3.8%	4.2%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	148	62
Miguel Suero R 2025 · 2.69 FIP	21	SP-	2.69	17.4%	5.2%	0.7%	.231	5.09	14.1%	6.3%	27	+2.40	2.69	122	61
Dylan Smith R 2026 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	19.0%	6.9%	3.1%	.305	4.63	21.6%	10.2%	117	+0.56	2.48	233	61
Martin Agosta R 2028 · 4.24 FIP	24	SP-	4.24	21.6%	6.2%	4.0%	.340	4.51	12.3%	5.7%	40	+0.27	4.24	146	61

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7	47	22.3%	2.9%	1.20	3.69
Yusmeiro Petit ('21)	7	72	20.4%	4.6%	1.27	3.28
Craig Stammen ('22)	6	66	23.0%	5.4%	1.19	3.36
Dan Otero ('19)	5	53	16.7%	3.0%	1.12	3.93
Tommy Hunter ('23)	7	41	21.2%	5.7%	1.00	3.72
Nick Vincent ('20)	6	45	22.7%	6.3%	1.13	3.71
Joe Smith ('22)	7	44	22.5%	6.4%	1.08	3.67