Jedixson Paez

P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.3 · 2030

Overview

AARP40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX2 levels	22	12	97	3.17	2.61	29.0%	3.1%	—	K 22.0% · BB 3.6% · FIP 3.57
2025	21	A+BOS	7	7	19	2.79	3.88	27.7%	3.6%	—	K 21.3% · BB 4.2% · FIP 4.78
2026	22	MIX3 levels	27	13	82	4.70	3.76	27.2%	3.9%	0.8	K 22.9% · BB 4.0% · FIP 4.49
2027PROJ	23	MLBBOS	7	7	38	4.12	4.06	21.4%	2.0%	0.6
2028PROJ78% MLB	24	MLBBOS	9	9	52	4.01	3.95	22.2%	2.5%	0.9
2029PROJ86% MLB	25	MLBBOS	9	9	54	3.96	3.91	22.7%	2.9%	0.9

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.058First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$1M2031Arb-2$2M2032Arb-3$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo14

K%10

xwOBA vs10

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 7.8, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 77%

CompsJeremy Hellickson (age 23) · John Patterson (age 24) · Juan Gutierrez (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110102vR 94

ERA4.12

FIP4.06

K%21.4%

BB%2.0%

K-BB%19.4%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$32M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1491.9

Whiff%

p2421.7%

p1014.0%

xwOBA vs

p100.418

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.058 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$3M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$1M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Arb-2	$2M	+0.9	$3M	+$1M
2032	Arb-3	$2M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.8M
Totals		$8M		$17M	+$11M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Blue	13	13	50	204	49	9	5	100%	3.9	16.3%	5.5%	10.8%	2.4%	2.86	3.71	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL BOS Blue	13	13	50	204	49	9	5	100%	3.9	24.0%	4.4%	19.6%	2.5%	2.86	2.98	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	13	10	57	233	49	13	2	77%	4.4	14.3%	7.0%	7.3%	1.3%	3.63	3.48	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	13	10	57	233	49	13	2	77%	4.4	21.0%	5.6%	15.5%	0.9%	3.63	2.52	—
2023	19	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	18	16	84	338	73	12	7	89%	4.7	16.0%	4.2%	11.8%	2.7%	3.31	3.76	—
2023	19	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	18	16	84	338	73	12	7	89%	4.7	21.6%	3.6%	18.0%	2.1%	3.31	2.87	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	12	97	390	113	12	11	55%	4.4	22.0%	3.6%	18.5%	3.4%	3.17	3.57	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	12	97	390	113	12	11	55%	4.4	22.0%	3.6%	18.5%	3.4%	3.17	3.57	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	12	97	390	113	12	11	55%	4.4	29.0%	3.1%	25.9%	2.8%	3.17	2.61	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	7	7	19	83	23	3	4	100%	2.8	21.3%	4.2%	17.2%	5.4%	2.79	4.78	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	7	7	19	83	23	3	4	100%	2.8	21.3%	4.2%	17.2%	5.4%	2.79	4.78	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	7	7	19	83	23	3	4	100%	2.8	27.7%	3.6%	24.1%	4.8%	2.79	3.88	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	13	82	331	90	13	15	48%	3.0	22.9%	4.0%	18.9%	5.1%	4.70	4.49	+0.1
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	13	82	331	90	13	15	48%	3.0	22.9%	4.0%	18.9%	5.1%	4.70	4.49	+0.1
2026	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	13	82	331	90	13	15	48%	3.0	27.2%	3.9%	23.3%	4.5%	4.70	3.76	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			5	1	12	57	8	5	4	20%	2.3	14.0%	8.8%	5.3%	7.0%	10.80	7.47	-0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	BOS	7	7	38	160	34	3	6	100%	5.4	21.4%	2.0%	19.4%	3.9%	4.12	4.06	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	66	280	62	7	11	100%	5.5	22.2%	2.5%	19.7%	3.8%	4.06	4.00	+1.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	63	264	60	8	10	100%	5.7	22.7%	2.9%	19.8%	3.7%	4.01	3.96	+1.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	BOS	10	10	62	261	60	8	10	100%	6.2	22.9%	3.1%	19.8%	3.7%	3.99	3.96	+1.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	BOS	10	10	60	253	58	9	9	100%	6.0	22.9%	3.4%	19.5%	3.7%	4.00	4.01	+1.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	BOS	10	10	57	242	55	9	9	100%	5.7	22.8%	3.5%	19.2%	3.8%	4.05	4.09	+0.9
2033	29	MLB MLE	BOS	9	9	53	223	49	8	9	100%	5.9	22.2%	3.8%	18.4%	4.0%	4.17	4.25	+0.7
2034	30	MLB MLE	BOS	8	8	47	199	43	8	8	100%	5.9	21.5%	4.1%	17.4%	4.2%	4.34	4.46	+0.5
2028	24	MLB CTX	BOS	9	9	52	220	49	5	8	100%	5.8	22.2%	2.5%	19.7%	3.7%	4.01	3.95	+0.9
2029	25	MLB CTX	BOS	9	9	54	228	52	7	8	100%	6.0	22.7%	2.9%	19.8%	3.6%	3.96	3.91	+0.9
2030	26	MLB CTX	BOS	9	9	55	232	53	7	8	100%	6.1	22.9%	3.1%	19.8%	3.6%	3.94	3.91	+0.9
2031	27	MLB CTX	BOS	9	9	55	232	53	8	8	100%	6.1	22.9%	3.4%	19.5%	3.6%	3.95	3.96	+0.9
2032	28	MLB CTX	BOS	9	9	53	224	51	8	8	100%	5.9	22.8%	3.5%	19.2%	3.7%	4.00	4.04	+0.8
2033	29	MLB CTX	BOS	8	8	49	207	46	8	8	100%	6.1	22.2%	3.8%	18.4%	3.9%	4.12	4.20	+0.7
2034	30	MLB CTX	BOS	8	8	45	190	41	8	8	100%	5.6	21.5%	4.1%	17.4%	4.0%	4.28	4.40	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	62	375	1590	353	56	61	94%	5.7	22.2%	3.5%	18.7%	3.8%	4.24	3.78	+7.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	33	200	849	188	30	33	94%	5.6	22.2%	3.5%	18.7%	3.8%	4.24	3.78	+3.9
Career	—	MLE		100	71	390	1579	300	72	52	71%	3.9	19.0%	4.6%	14.4%	3.3%	3.53	3.87	+6.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	36	200	810	154	37	27	71%	3.9	19.0%	4.6%	14.4%	3.3%	3.53	3.87	+2.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 49 IPFIP 3.25 → 4.21 (+0.95)K% 29.0% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.02%	—	×0.810	23.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.59%	—	×1.100	2.85%
HR / BF /BF	4.15%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.97%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.25 → 4.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 22 IPFIP 2.89 → 3.43 (+0.54)K% 32.1% → 27.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.10%	—	×0.860	27.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.70%	—	×0.900	3.33%
HR / BF /BF	3.70%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.07%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.89 → 3.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Greenville Drive · 19 IPFIP 3.86 → 4.78 (+0.92)K% 27.7% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.71%	—	×0.770	21.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.61%	—	×1.150	4.16%
HR / BF /BF	4.82%	÷1.117	×1.250	5.39%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 123).

Result: FIP 3.86 → 4.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Greenville Drive · 65 IPFIP 3.07 → 4.14 (+1.07)K% 30.2% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.23%	—	×0.770	23.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.10%	—	×1.150	3.57%
HR / BF /BF	3.88%	÷1.043	×1.250	4.65%

Result: FIP 3.07 → 4.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ASalem Red Sox · 32 IPFIP 1.66 → 2.48 (+0.81)K% 26.5% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.52%	—	×0.740	19.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.03%	—	×1.180	3.58%
HR / BF /BF	0.76%	÷0.933	×1.300	1.06%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 1.66 → 2.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ASalem Red Sox · 84 IPFIP 2.86 → 3.76 (+0.90)K% 21.6% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.60%	—	×0.740	15.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.55%	—	×1.180	4.19%
HR / BF /BF	2.07%	÷0.999	×1.300	2.69%

Result: FIP 2.86 → 3.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Red Sox · 57 IPFIP 2.50 → 3.48 (+0.97)K% 21.0% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.03%	—	×0.680	14.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.58%	—	×1.250	6.97%
HR / BF /BF	0.86%	÷0.943	×1.400	1.27%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 2.50 → 3.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKDSL BOS Blue · 50 IPFIP 2.98 → 3.71 (+0.74)K% 24.0% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.02%	—	×0.680	16.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.41%	—	×1.250	5.51%
HR / BF /BF	2.45%	÷1.458	×1.400	2.35%

Result: FIP 2.98 → 3.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jedixson Paez (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.9%	—	3.97	22.6%	19.8%	191	-0.09	—	—	—
Jeremy Hellickson R 2010 · 3.63 FIP	23	SW	3.63	22.1%	4.0%	3.5%	.257	4.40	16.7%	9.1%	540	+0.77	3.63	1,286	68
John Patterson R 2002 · 4.82 FIP	24	SP-	4.82	25.2%	5.7%	5.7%	.256	3.85	21.6%	13.7%	352	-0.97	2.90	454	66
Juan Gutierrez R 2007 · 3.96 FIP	24	SW	3.96	17.2%	4.3%	3.2%	.314	3.83	20.4%	12.6%	128	-0.13	2.67	379	63
Miller Hogan R 2019 · 3.39 FIP	23	SW	3.39	18.4%	3.4%	2.6%	.294	4.94	19.3%	14.1%	89	+1.55	3.39	168	62
Clay Chandler R 2017 · 4.97 FIP	23	SP-	4.97	18.3%	6.0%	4.8%	.319	4.89	14.8%	8.8%	293	-0.08	4.49	328	62
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	61
Anthony DeSclafani R 2014 · 3.61 FIP	24	SW	3.61	17.8%	3.4%	2.9%	.324	3.62	19.8%	14.0%	321	+0.01	3.38	1,014	61
Landon Knack R 2021 · 3.68 FIP	24	SP-	3.68	26.1%	3.7%	4.2%	.284	4.06	22.5%	14.2%	302	+0.38	3.64	556	60
Bobby Milacki R 2021 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP-	3.98	17.4%	4.6%	3.2%	.325	4.57	18.0%	10.0%	193	+0.59	2.87	320	60
Evan McKendry R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	18.4%	5.5%	3.6%	.256	5.08	18.4%	12.2%	324	+0.88	4.20	474	59
Kevin Gadea R 2016 · 3.10 FIP	21	SP-	3.10	24.8%	6.0%	2.4%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	196	58
Mariano Salomon R 2024 · 3.48 FIP	21	SP-	3.48	21.0%	6.9%	2.3%	.282	4.85	18.5%	10.4%	67	+1.37	2.60	158	58
Travis Herrin R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP-	4.40	21.1%	7.3%	3.9%	.315	4.92	17.6%	5.2%	106	+0.52	4.40	236	58
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.69	18.1%	10.4%	162	+0.20	3.86	278	58
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.67	22.0%	14.9%	279	+0.48	3.19	310	58
Jake Odorizzi R 2013 · 3.80 FIP	23	SP-	3.80	18.0%	6.6%	2.5%	.281	3.84	22.3%	15.2%	525	+0.04	3.16	1,246	57
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	57
Maiker Manuel R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	21	SW	4.62	15.3%	3.8%	4.2%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	148	57
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	57
German Nunez R 2024 · 3.00 FIP	22	SP	3.00	24.8%	6.8%	2.1%	.298	3.36	22.1%	11.2%	19	+0.36	2.27	151	56

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	60	22.1%	3.3%	1.51	4.25
Edward Mujica ('17)	2.8	69	19.1%	3.9%	1.30	3.92
Casey Fien ('17)	1.4	58	21.0%	5.1%	1.46	4.42
Gabe White ('05)	2.9	57	19.0%	5.9%	1.51	4.51
Luis DeLeon ('81-'89, 4 WAR*)	1.7	67	25.0%*	5.7%*	1.69*	3.69*
Bob Patterson ('85-'98, 4 WAR*)	3.1	51	23.0%*	6.7%*	1.32*	4.33*
Tim Crews ('87-'92, 3 WAR*)	2.1	71	20.8%*	6.2%*	1.09*	4.11*