Jose Serrano — OGILVIE

Jose SerranoSS Dayton Dragons

Age 22 R/R 5'11" / 180 lbs A+ HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 45 proj PA

wRC+†49

AVG/OBP/SLG.184 / .249 / .273

PA4

HR0

K%36

BB%7

ISO89

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	17	ROK	DSL Reds	—	127	115	33	6	4	0	12	26	0	2	1	287	354	409	763	122	371	20	9	341	117	+3	+0	—	—	+3	0.5
2022	18	ROK	ACL Reds	—	100	86	21	4	0	1	13	35	1	1	0	244	350	326	676	81	400	35	13	315	99	-0	+0	—	—	+2	0.2
2023	19	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	30	29	5	1	0	0	1	13	0	0	0	172	200	207	407	34	312	43	3	187	13	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2023	19	ROK	ACL Reds	—	168	141	32	5	4	2	22	56	4	2	4	227	347	362	709	135	357	33	13	323	105	+1	-1	—	—	+4	0.4
2024	20	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	92	84	12	0	0	2	8	45	0	0	0	143	217	214	432	71	270	49	9	204	24	-8	+0	—	—	+2	-0.6
2025	21	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	31	28	6	1	0	0	3	14	0	0	0	214	290	250	540	36	429	45	10	255	59	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	127	120	25	4	3	0	7	38	0	2	1	208	252	292	544	83	309	30	6	244	51	-7	+0	—	—	+3	-0.5
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	100	91	14	2	0	1	8	50	1	1	0	154	230	209	439	55	327	50	8	198	20	-10	+0	—	—	+2	-0.7
2023	19	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	30	29	4	1	0	0	1	18	0	0	0	138	167	172	339	34	283	60	3	117	-35	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	168	150	21	3	2	1	13	79	4	2	4	140	228	207	434	67	282	47	8	206	26	-15	-1	—	—	+4	-1.3
2024	20	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	92	86	7	0	0	1	6	60	0	0	0	81	141	116	258	35	236	65	7	119	-33	-15	+0	—	—	+2	-1.3
2025	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	31	29	4	1	0	0	2	19	0	0	0	138	194	172	366	34	393	61	6	166	-1	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	127	120	25	4	3	0	7	38	0	2	1	208	252	292	544	83	305	30	6	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	—	127	115	33	6	4	0	12	26	0	2	1	287	354	409	763	122	371	20	9	341	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	100	91	14	2	0	1	8	50	1	1	0	154	230	209	439	55	325	50	8	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	—	100	86	21	4	0	1	13	35	1	1	0	244	350	326	676	81	400	35	13	315	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	198	180	25	4	2	1	13	97	4	2	4	139	213	200	413	61	289	49	7	193	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	198	170	37	6	4	2	23	69	4	2	4	218	325	335	660	118	350	35	12	303	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	92	86	7	0	0	1	6	60	0	0	0	81	141	116	258	35	240	65	7	119	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	—	92	84	12	0	0	2	8	45	0	0	0	143	217	214	432	71	270	49	9	204	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	31	29	4	1	0	0	2	19	0	0	0	138	194	172	366	34	400	61	6	166	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	—	31	28	6	1	0	0	3	14	0	0	0	214	290	250	540	36	429	45	10	255	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	127	119	25	4	3	0	7	38	0	2	1	210	252	294	546	84	309	30	6	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	100	91	14	2	0	1	8	50	1	1	0	154	230	209	439	55	327	50	8	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	198	179	25	4	2	1	13	97	4	2	4	140	213	201	414	61	282	49	7	193	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	92	86	7	0	0	1	6	60	0	0	0	81	141	116	258	35	236	65	7	119	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	31	29	4	1	0	0	2	19	0	0	0	138	194	172	366	34	393	61	6	166	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	198	179	25	4	2	1	13	97	4	2	4	140	213	201	414	61	282	49	7	193	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	92	86	7	0	0	1	6	60	0	0	0	81	141	116	258	35	236	65	7	119	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	31	29	4	1	0	0	2	19	0	0	0	138	194	172	366	34	393	61	6	166	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	22	MLB MLE	CIN	0%	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						288	25	0	240	49	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CIN	35%	121	110	22	4	1	2	9	42	1	2	0	200	267	309	576	109	290	35	7	254	58	-6	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	CIN	35%	42	39	7	1	0	1	3	15	0	1	0	179	238	282	520	103	293	36	7	252	58	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	42	39	7	1	0	1	3	15	0	1	0	179	238	282	520	103	261	36	7	252	24	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	604	107	15	0	15	46	232	0	15	0	177	235	276	512	99	258	36	7	252	24	-32	+3	+0	+7	+14	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	673	620	97	15	6	5	45	307	6	7	5	156	221	224	445	68	297	46	7	203	24	-6	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	599	94	14	6	5	43	297	6	7	5	157	221	225	446	68	298	46	7	203	24	-33	+2	+0	+7	+14	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jose Serrano (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	184/249/273	89	288	1	1	36%	7%	49	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Fabian Pertuz 2023 · A	22	37→34	40	49→55	33	186/229/277	91	285	8	9	37%	4%	41	-3.0	175/226/265	90	273	8	12	37%	5%	38	-3.2	148/203/228	80	231	8	13	38%	5%	19	-2.4
✕Arturo De Freitas 2023 · A	22	35	39→45	45→40	34	174/222/255	81	277	7	4	39%	5%	34	-3.5	184/241/265	81	306	8	5	40%	6%	44	-2.8	141/191/216	75	260	9	0	47%	5%	11	-1.0
✕Will Banfield 2022 · A	22	32→37	40→45	48→30	34	164/217/255	91	263	8	4	40%	6%	32	-3.7	193/231/313	120	266	14	3	32%	4%	51	-2.3	193/233/284	91	269	10	0	31%	4%	42	-1.5
✕Juan Zabala 2021 · A	22	40	39→40	48→50	37	189/252/274	85	300	6	6	37%	6%	50	-2.3	212/274/306	94	301	9	13	30%	7%	65	-1.2	206/268/289	83	286	8	16	29%	7%	56	-0.8
✕Edwin Díaz 2018 · A	22	34→33	40→50	46→40	37	174/232/263	89	269	9	3	37%	6%	40	-3.1	181/243/301	120	279	12	4	37%	7%	53	-2.1	154/228/294	140	225	19	5	40%	7%	45	-1.1
✕Justin Twine 2018 · A	22	36→32	37→40	47→50	31	177/217/248	70	278	4	7	37%	3%	30	-3.8	212/252/296	84	302	6	10	30%	4%	53	-2.1	214/250/302	88	318	6	14	33%	3%	53	-1.2
✕Brandon Lewis 2021 · A	22	42→35	39→50	49→30	41	203/264/289	86	290	7	6	31%	6%	57	-1.8	197/250/365	168	291	23	3	39%	6%	71	-0.8	177/231/332	154	254	22	1	39%	5%	54	-1.4
✕Ali Solis 2010 · AA	22	34	42→45	49→30	36	176/226/274	97	261	10	4	36%	5%	39	-3.1	216/248/336	120	297	13	3	31%	4%	62	-1.4	230/253/350	120	309	12	1	29%	2%	64	-0.6
✕Chris Roller 2019 · A	22	39	41→45	51→55	42	192/267/295	103	286	9	14	34%	8%	61	-1.5	205/269/313	108	292	7	12	30%	6%	65	-1.2	178/265/281	103	258	10	19	32%	8%	56	-1.0
✕Mikell Granberry 2018 · A	22	39	39→45	47→45	38	186/242/277	91	282	4	6	34%	6%	47	-2.6	215/284/323	108	302	8	7	29%	8%	73	-0.6	225/307/355	130	299	13	7	27%	10%	87	+0.1
✕Julio Carrion 2021 · A	22	39	38→40	50→45	38	186/255/265	79	301	6	6	38%	7%	49	-2.4	185/264/273	88	311	8	5	40%	8%	55	-1.9	163/244/248	85	289	9	3	43%	7%	40	-1.2
✕Cadyn Grenier 2019 · A	22	41→38	39→40	48→50	36	192/247/284	92	313	5	8	38%	6%	49	-2.4	192/264/291	99	321	8	8	39%	8%	59	-1.7	178/263/269	91	283	7	11	36%	9%	51	-1.6
✕David Masters 2015 · A	22	39→37	36→45	47→40	40	183/249/251	68	277	3	8	33%	7%	43	-2.8	179/238/250	71	242	6	4	27%	6%	38	-3.2	192/262/321	129	263	16	1	32%	7%	61	-0.6
✕Blake Hunt 2022 · AA	23	35	43→45	49→40	39	180/241/289	109	274	11	4	37%	7%	49	-2.4	201/257/318	117	274	12	4	30%	6%	62	-1.4	208/275/351	144	265	17	1	28%	7%	74	-0.2
✕Vicente Conde 2016 · AA	22	39→35	41→40	46→45	42	192/253/294	102	275	8	9	32%	7%	55	-2.0	180/252/262	82	266	6	6	32%	9%	47	-2.5	157/240/222	66	240	3	4	33%	10%	32	-1.5
✕Alex Lavisky 2013 · A	22	37	44→45	46→30	35	188/234/296	108	279	12	3	36%	5%	48	-2.5	203/248/298	95	269	10	3	27%	5%	53	-2.1	195/239/272	77	244	8	1	23%	4%	42	-1.0
✕Tyler Grimes 2013 · A	23	37	42→40	46→40	40	180/259/284	104	282	9	8	37%	8%	55	-1.9	203/277/297	94	309	7	5	34%	7%	65	-1.2	203/279/289	86	310	6	2	34%	7%	62	-0.8
✕Jair Camargo 2021 · A	22	41	40→50	46→45	33	197/243/289	93	309	8	7	38%	4%	49	-2.4	199/240/337	138	335	19	6	44%	4%	60	-1.6	189/238/334	145	280	21	4	40%	5%	56	-1.1
✕Caleb Hamilton 2017 · A	22	39	39→45	48→45	45	184/268/268	85	290	5	5	36%	9%	55	-1.9	177/255/277	100	266	8	5	34%	9%	52	-2.2	141/235/256	115	206	16	3	39%	10%	39	-1.0
✕Joey Rose 2019 · A	21	37	42→50	51→40	34	174/237/277	103	312	9	4	45%	6%	45	-2.7	185/239/274	89	295	7	5	37%	6%	45	-2.7	149/192/219	70	221	5	2	34%	4%	12	-1.6