Jose Serrano
SS Dayton Dragons| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | A+/ROKCIN | 198 | .218/.325/.335 | 2 | 2 | 18 | — | .139/.213/.200 |
| 2024 | 20 | A+CIN | 92 | .143/.217/.214 | 2 | 0 | -24 | — | .093/.152/.128 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+CIN | 31 | .214/.290/.250 | 0 | 0 | 9 | — | .172/.226/.207 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBCIN | 141 | .188/.252/.271 | 2 | 2 | 48 | -0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 24 | MLBCIN | 19 | .194/.258/.288 | 0 | 0 | 53 | -0.0 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Reds | — | 127 | 115 | 33 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 26 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 287 | 354 | 409 | 763 | 122 | 371 | 20 | 9 | 341 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | ACL Reds | — | 100 | 86 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 244 | 350 | 326 | 676 | 81 | 400 | 35 | 13 | 315 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 30 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 172 | 200 | 207 | 407 | 34 | 312 | 43 | 3 | 187 | -24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Reds | — | 168 | 141 | 32 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 56 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 227 | 347 | 362 | 709 | 135 | 357 | 33 | 13 | 323 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 92 | 84 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 217 | 214 | 432 | 71 | 270 | 49 | 9 | 204 | -24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 31 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 290 | 250 | 540 | 36 | 429 | 45 | 10 | 255 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 127 | 119 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 185 | 236 | 252 | 488 | 67 | 259 | 25 | 6 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Reds | — | 100 | 91 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 50 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 154 | 230 | 209 | 439 | 55 | 329 | 50 | 8 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 30 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 138 | 167 | 172 | 339 | 34 | 296 | 57 | 3 | 132 | -24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Reds | — | 168 | 151 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 79 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 139 | 222 | 205 | 427 | 66 | 280 | 47 | 7 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 92 | 86 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 93 | 152 | 128 | 280 | 35 | 245 | 62 | 7 | 132 | -24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 31 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 172 | 226 | 207 | 433 | 34 | 400 | 58 | 6 | 182 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 127 | 119 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 185 | 236 | 252 | 488 | 67 | 253 | 25 | 6 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Reds | — | 127 | 115 | 33 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 26 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 287 | 354 | 409 | 763 | 122 | 371 | 20 | 9 | 341 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Reds | — | 100 | 91 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 50 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 154 | 230 | 209 | 439 | 55 | 325 | 50 | 8 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL Reds | — | 100 | 86 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 244 | 350 | 326 | 676 | 81 | 400 | 35 | 13 | 315 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 198 | 180 | 25 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 96 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 139 | 213 | 200 | 413 | 61 | 286 | 48 | 7 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 198 | 170 | 37 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 69 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 218 | 325 | 335 | 660 | 118 | 350 | 35 | 12 | 303 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 92 | 86 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 93 | 152 | 128 | 280 | 35 | 250 | 62 | 7 | 132 | -24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ RAW | Dayton Dragons | — | 92 | 84 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 217 | 214 | 432 | 71 | 270 | 49 | 9 | 204 | -24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 31 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 172 | 226 | 207 | 433 | 34 | 455 | 58 | 6 | 182 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ RAW | Dayton Dragons | — | 31 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 290 | 250 | 540 | 36 | 429 | 45 | 10 | 255 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 127 | 118 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 186 | 236 | 254 | 490 | 68 | 259 | 25 | 6 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Reds | — | 100 | 91 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 50 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 154 | 230 | 209 | 439 | 55 | 329 | 50 | 8 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 198 | 179 | 25 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 96 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 140 | 213 | 201 | 414 | 61 | 282 | 48 | 7 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 92 | 86 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 93 | 152 | 128 | 280 | 35 | 245 | 62 | 7 | 132 | -24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 31 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 172 | 226 | 207 | 433 | 34 | 400 | 58 | 6 | 182 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 92 | 86 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 93 | 152 | 128 | 280 | 35 | 245 | 62 | 7 | 132 | -24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 31 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 172 | 226 | 207 | 433 | 34 | 400 | 58 | 6 | 182 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | CIN | 0% | 141 | 129 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 50 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 188 | 252 | 271 | 523 | 84 | 288 | 35 | 7 | 239 | 48 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | CIN | 30% | 64 | 59 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 192 | 257 | 283 | 540 | 91 | 289 | 34 | 8 | 246 | 53 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | CIN | 30% | 19 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 194 | 258 | 288 | 546 | 94 | 290 | 37 | 5 | 249 | 53 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 19 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 211 | 222 | 433 | 56 | 273 | 37 | 5 | 249 | 21 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 616 | 102 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 239 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 166 | 209 | 221 | 430 | 55 | 271 | 37 | 5 | 249 | 21 | -37 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 636 | 586 | 89 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 44 | 284 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 152 | 217 | 210 | 427 | 58 | 284 | 45 | 7 | 199 | 21 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 599 | 90 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 45 | 290 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 150 | 216 | 207 | 423 | 57 | 281 | 45 | 7 | 199 | 21 | -38 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 A+Dayton Dragons · 31 PAwOBA .249 → .182 (−67)K% 45.2% → 57.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 45.16% | ÷0.999 | ×1.270 | — | — | 57.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.68% | ÷1.006 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 6.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 35.71% | ÷0.987 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 33.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.928 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.012 | 6.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.124 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 97, 2B 86, 3B 80, K 100, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .249 → .182; ISO .036 → .025; BABIP .429 → .400. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Dayton Dragons · 92 PAwOBA .199 → .132 (−67)K% 48.9% → 61.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 48.91% | ÷1.006 | ×1.270 | — | — | 61.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.70% | ÷0.976 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 6.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.64% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.027 | 23.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.941 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.030 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.13% | ÷1.285 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 3.28% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 157, 1B 105, 2B 88, 3B 106, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .199 → .132; ISO .071 → .034; BABIP .270 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Reds · 168 PAwOBA .315 → .205 (−110)K% 33.3% → 46.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷1.027 | ×1.440 | — | — | 46.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.040 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 7.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.38% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 1.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.71% | ÷1.004 | ×0.820 | ×1.031 | ×0.995 | 20.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.038 | ×0.720 | ×1.031 | ×0.995 | 4.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.71% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×1.031 | ×0.995 | 3.02% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.35% | ÷1.059 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 1.72% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 101, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 105, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.
Result: wOBA .315 → .205; ISO .135 → .081; BABIP .357 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Dayton Dragons · 30 PAwOBA .182 → .132 (−50)K% 43.3% → 56.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 43.33% | ÷0.975 | ×1.270 | — | — | 56.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.33% | ÷1.020 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.042 | 2.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.042 | 24.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.027 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.042 | 5.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.916 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.951 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 96, 2B 105, 3B 83, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .182 → .132; ISO .034 → .022; BABIP .312 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Reds · 100 PAwOBA .308 → .200 (−108)K% 35.0% → 50.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.00% | ÷1.005 | ×1.440 | — | — | 50.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.00% | ÷1.011 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 8.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.37% | ÷1.022 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 26.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.84% | ÷1.035 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 5.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.983 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.96% | ÷0.970 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 1.59% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 104, 2B 107, 3B 97, K 101, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .308 → .200; ISO .081 → .050; BABIP .400 → .329. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL Reds · 127 PAwOBA .330 → .226 (−104)K% 20.5% → 25.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.47% | ÷0.995 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.66% | ÷0.979 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 6.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.84% | ÷0.998 | ×0.680 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 18.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.74% | ÷0.977 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 4.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.49% | ÷0.998 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 2.86% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.104 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 100, 2B 95, 3B 100, K 99, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .330 → .226; ISO .122 → .077; BABIP .371 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).