Ricardo Estrada

P San Jose Giants

Age 25 LHP 5'10" / 214 lbs A peak 0.4 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	ROKDSL Giants Bl…	13	8	44	1.22	1.66	30.3%	8.0%	—	K 20.6% · BB 10.0% · FIP 2.63
2025	23	MIX2 levels	22	3	73	2.10	2.89	24.6%	9.0%	—	K 17.3% · BB 10.7% · FIP 3.80
2026	24	ASF	23	15	92	4.12	4.37	21.5%	13.2%	—	K 15.9% · BB 15.5% · FIP 5.53
2027PROJ	25	MLBSF	9	9	57	5.35	5.35	17.5%	13.6%	-0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBSF	6	6	35	5.20	5.17	18.7%	13.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBSF	8	8	51	5.13	5.14	18.9%	12.7%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsBrad Mills (age 25) · Jack Snodgrass (age 27) · Jimmy Robbins (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119127vR 135

ERA5.35

FIP5.35

K%17.5%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%3.9%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	10	10	38	165	38	23	1	100%	3.8	15.7%	17.4%	-1.8%	0.8%	3.05	4.43	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	10	10	38	165	38	23	1	100%	3.8	23.0%	13.9%	9.1%	0.6%	3.05	3.26	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	10	10	42	178	38	17	1	100%	4.2	14.5%	11.9%	2.6%	0.7%	5.40	3.79	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	10	10	42	178	38	17	1	100%	4.2	21.3%	9.6%	11.8%	0.6%	5.40	2.81	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	2	2	7	32	3	5	0	100%	3.5	9.4%	15.6%	-6.2%	0.0%	3.86	4.29	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	2	2	7	32	3	5	0	100%	3.5	9.4%	15.6%	-6.2%	0.0%	3.86	4.39	—
2024	22	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	13	8	44	175	53	14	0	62%	3.4	20.6%	10.0%	10.6%	0.0%	1.22	2.63	—
2024	22	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	13	8	44	175	53	14	0	62%	3.4	20.6%	10.0%	10.6%	0.0%	1.22	2.63	—
2024	22	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	13	8	44	175	53	14	0	62%	3.4	30.3%	8.0%	22.3%	0.0%	1.22	1.66	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	3	73	301	74	27	4	14%	3.3	17.3%	10.7%	6.6%	1.5%	2.10	3.80	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	3	73	301	74	27	4	14%	3.3	17.3%	10.7%	6.6%	1.5%	2.10	3.80	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	3	73	301	74	27	4	14%	3.3	24.6%	9.0%	15.6%	1.3%	2.10	2.89	—
2026	24	A MLE	San Jose Giants	23	15	92	395	85	52	10	65%	4.0	15.9%	15.5%	0.4%	3.3%	4.12	5.53	—
2026	24	A MLE	San Jose Giants	23	15	92	395	85	52	10	65%	4.0	15.9%	15.5%	0.4%	3.3%	4.12	5.53	—
2026	24	A RAW	San Jose Giants	23	15	92	395	85	52	10	65%	4.0	21.5%	13.2%	8.4%	2.5%	4.12	4.37	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	SF	9	9	57	241	42	33	7	100%	6.3	17.5%	13.6%	3.9%	2.9%	5.35	5.35	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	SF	13	13	82	348	65	45	10	100%	6.3	18.7%	13.0%	5.7%	3.0%	5.20	5.17	-0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	SF	13	13	81	343	65	44	10	100%	6.3	18.9%	12.7%	6.2%	3.0%	5.13	5.14	-0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	SF	13	13	79	333	70	39	10	100%	6.1	21.0%	11.8%	9.2%	3.1%	4.98	4.91	-0.0
2031	29	MLB MLE	SF	12	12	75	318	66	38	10	100%	6.3	20.8%	11.9%	8.8%	3.3%	5.00	5.02	-0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	SF	12	12	71	299	61	37	10	100%	5.9	20.4%	12.2%	8.2%	3.5%	5.12	5.20	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	SF	6	6	35	148	28	19	4	100%	5.8	18.7%	13.0%	5.7%	3.0%	5.20	5.17	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	SF	8	8	51	215	41	27	6	100%	6.4	18.9%	12.7%	6.2%	3.0%	5.13	5.14	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	SF	10	10	59	249	52	29	8	100%	5.9	21.0%	11.8%	9.2%	3.1%	4.98	4.91	-0.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	SF	10	10	61	258	54	31	8	100%	6.1	20.8%	11.9%	8.8%	3.3%	5.00	5.02	-0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	SF	10	10	61	258	53	32	9	100%	6.1	20.4%	12.2%	8.2%	3.5%	5.12	5.20	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		43	43	267	1129	227	138	36	100%	6.2	20.1%	12.3%	7.9%	3.2%	5.07	4.70	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	170	103	27	100%	6.2	20.1%	12.3%	7.9%	3.2%	5.07	4.70	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		80	48	296	1246	206	166	20	60%	3.7	16.5%	13.3%	3.2%	1.6%	3.22	4.28	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	32	200	842	139	112	14	60%	3.7	16.5%	13.3%	3.2%	1.6%	3.22	4.28	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ricardo Estrada (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.35	17.5%	13.6%	2.9%	—	5.08	19.5%	7.0%	243	-0.27	—	—	—
Brad Mills L 2010 · 4.22 FIP	25	SW	4.22	18.4%	12.2%	2.0%	.273	5.37	19.8%	7.7%	18	+1.15	4.22	243	80
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	79
Jimmy Robbins L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP-	4.69	17.8%	15.2%	2.1%	.290	5.73	19.6%	3.8%	13	+1.04	3.85	176	79
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	79
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	78
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	78
John Koronka L 2005 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP-	4.77	13.2%	10.5%	2.6%	.304	4.81	10.5%	2.2%	135	+0.04	3.99	151	77
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	77
Dan Meyer L 2007 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	13.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.316	4.35	20.6%	11.8%	86	-0.41	3.73	112	77
Bryce Hubbart L 2024 · 5.45 FIP	23	SP-	5.45	15.5%	13.8%	3.5%	.313	5.14	19.9%	6.3%	82	-0.31	4.79	194	76
Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP-	5.07	15.2%	12.0%	3.2%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	105	76
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	76
Riley Cooper L 2024 · 4.22 FIP	22	SW	4.22	16.6%	12.0%	1.8%	.287	4.46	18.9%	7.7%	51	+0.24	4.14	139	75
Garrett Schoenle L 2023 · 5.38 FIP	25	SP-	5.38	20.5%	15.0%	3.9%	.307	3.58	20.9%	12.1%	174	-1.80	2.32	362	75
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	75
Brian Burres L 2007 · 4.50 FIP	26	SW	4.50	17.2%	11.6%	2.5%	.328	4.71	11.3%	3.1%	209	+0.21	4.50	344	74
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	74
Nate Peterson L 2024 · 5.51 FIP	24	SP-	5.51	19.2%	11.4%	4.7%	.296	4.75	16.0%	3.7%	148	-0.76	4.27	315	74
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	74
Scott DeCecco L 2015 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP-	4.55	14.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	125	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	74	19.6%	12.5%	1.21	5.12
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Justin Miller ('10)	1.9	63	18.1%	11.3%	1.17	4.82
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Brian Boehringer ('04)	2.7	67	18.2%	11.5%	1.08	4.36
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*