Jair Casanova — OGILVIE

Jair CasanovaOF FCL Braves

Age 22 R/R 5'11" / 170 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 84 proj PA

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.208 / .272 / .324

PA7

HR0

K%30

BB%7

ISO118

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	18	ROK	FCL Braves	—	179	149	43	5	1	1	24	34	3	0	1	289	398	356	753	67	359	19	13	344	119	+4	-0	—	—	+4	0.8
2023	19	A	Augusta GreenJackets	—	261	226	45	6	1	7	30	77	5	4	0	199	307	327	634	128	268	30	11	293	85	-5	+1	—	—	+6	0.2
2024	20	ROK	FCL Braves	—	27	25	1	0	0	0	2	12	0	0	0	40	111	40	151		77	44	7	85	-56	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	—	179	158	36	3	1	1	15	47	3	0	1	228	307	278	585	51	300	26	8	262	63	-8	-0	—	—	+4	-0.4
2023	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	261	236	37	4	1	5	20	110	5	4	0	157	238	246	483	89	264	42	8	222	36	-20	+1	—	—	+6	-1.4
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	—	27	26	1	0	0	0	1	17	0	0	0	38	74	38	113		60	63	4	51	-79	-6	+0	—	—	+1	-0.5
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	—	179	158	36	3	1	1	15	47	3	0	1	228	307	278	585	51	310	26	8	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	FCL Braves	—	179	149	43	5	1	1	24	34	3	0	1	289	398	356	753	67	359	19	13	344	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	261	236	37	4	1	5	20	110	5	4	0	157	238	246	483	89	264	42	8	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	—	261	226	45	6	1	7	30	77	5	4	0	199	307	327	634	128	268	30	11	293	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	—	27	26	1	0	0	0	1	17	0	0	0	38	74	38	113		111	63	4	51	-79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	FCL Braves	—	27	25	1	0	0	0	2	12	0	0	0	40	111	40	151		77	44	7	85	-79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	—	179	159	36	3	1	1	15	47	3	0	1	226	307	277	584	50	300	26	8	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	261	234	37	4	1	5	20	110	5	4	0	158	238	248	485	90	264	42	8	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	—	27	26	1	0	0	0	1	17	0	0	0	38	74	38	113		60	63	4	51	-79	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	261	234	37	4	1	5	20	110	5	4	0	158	238	248	485	90	264	42	8	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	—	27	26	1	0	0	0	1	17	0	0	0	38	74	38	113		60	63	4	51	-79	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	22	MLB MLE	ATL	0%	7	7	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	143	143	143	286		285	29	0	271	69	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	ATL	34%	148	134	29	5	1	3	11	43	2	2	1	216	286	336	622	119	286	29	7	280	76	-4	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.2
2028	24	MLB MLE	ATL	46%	269	244	54	9	2	7	20	76	3	4	1	221	288	361	649	139	288	28	7	286	80	-6	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	ATL	52%	345	312	69	12	2	9	26	97	4	5	1	221	289	359	648	138	288	28	8	290	83	-7	+1	+0	-2	+7	-0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	ATL	54%	396	359	79	14	2	10	30	110	4	6	2	220	288	354	641	134	288	28	8	292	84	-8	+0	+0	-2	+9	-0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	ATL	54%	421	381	84	15	2	11	32	118	5	7	2	220	289	357	646	136	288	28	8	292	84	-8	+1	+0	-3	+9	-0.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	ATL	54%	433	391	86	15	2	11	34	122	5	6	2	220	291	353	644	133	287	28	8	291	83	-9	+0	-1	-3	+9	-0.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	ATL	53%	434	392	86	15	2	11	34	123	5	6	2	219	290	352	642	133	286	28	8	289	82	-9	+0	-1	-3	+9	-0.4
2027	23	MLB CTX	ATL	34%	51	46	10	2	0	1	4	15	1	1	0	217	294	326	620	109	286	29	8	272	76	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	ATL	46%	124	113	25	4	1	3	9	35	1	2	1	221	285	354	639	133	288	28	7	278	80	-3	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	ATL	52%	178	161	36	6	1	5	13	50	2	3	1	224	290	366	656	143	288	28	7	282	83	-4	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	ATL	54%	215	195	44	8	1	6	16	60	2	3	1	226	291	369	660	144	288	28	7	284	84	-4	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	ATL	54%	228	205	46	8	1	6	18	64	3	4	1	224	296	361	657	137	288	28	8	284	84	-4	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	ATL	54%	235	212	46	8	1	6	18	66	3	3	1	217	288	349	637	132	287	28	8	283	83	-5	+0	-0	-1	+5	-0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	ATL	53%	230	207	46	8	1	6	18	65	3	3	1	222	294	357	651	135	286	28	8	281	82	-5	+0	-1	-1	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1261	1139	253	44	6	33	96	355	15	19	6	222	291	358	649	136	291	28	8	282	75	-26	+1	-1	-8	+27	-0.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	131	23	3	17	49	183	8	10	3	223	292	359	651	136	292	28	8	282	75	-14	+1	-1	-4	+14	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	2920	2640	562	92	15	68	223	865	36	40	12	213	283	336	620	123	287	30	8	280	75	-52	+3	-2	-15	+53	-1.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	588	124	20	3	15	50	193	8	9	3	211	282	332	613	121	285	30	8	280	75	-14	+1	-1	-4	+14	-0.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	2.0	1,346	34	20	221	286	357	-8	+0	0.2	0.3
/162	664	17	10	-4.0	+0.0	0.1	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jair Casanova (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	208/272/324	117	285	2	1	30%	7%	69	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jabari Henry 2013 · A	22	42→41	46→55	49→45	44	211/272/346	135	274	13	6	28%	7%	74	-0.6	207/286/361	154	270	17	6	28%	9%	83	+0.1	192/278/355	163	249	19	6	30%	10%	76	-0.3
✕Sandro Fabian 2021 · A	23	40→46	44→55	46→45	39	204/261/317	114	276	13	6	30%	6%	63	-1.3	224/265/382	158	260	20	4	22%	4%	80	-0.2	223/272/387	164	251	20	4	20%	5%	81	-0.1
✕Kevin Padlo 2018 · A	22	36→40	45→50	44→50	47	182/268/311	128	259	12	8	33%	10%	65	-1.2	195/278/338	143	287	14	9	35%	9%	75	-0.5	190/261/345	156	258	19	12	33%	8%	68	-0.7
✕Aristides Aquino 2016 · A	22	39→41	46→60	52→50	34	200/235/330	130	266	13	10	30%	3%	56	-1.9	200/242/346	146	267	16	8	31%	4%	62	-1.4	212/278/428	216	266	32	9	33%	7%	91	+0.4
✕Brian McFall 2006 · A	22	38→44	46→55	51→50	36	193/259/315	122	286	14	12	36%	5%	63	-1.4	202/261/354	152	279	18	9	33%	5%	72	-0.7	209/271/356	147	280	17	8	30%	6%	73	-0.4
✕Alexander Campos 2022 · A	22	42	42→40	46→45	48	206/291/311	105	278	9	6	28%	9%	73	-0.6	220/302/308	88	316	7	6	30%	9%	76	-0.4	234/327/306	73	330	7	6	28%	11%	84	+0.1
✕Adam Abraham 2009 · A	22	39→46	44→50	49→40	43	197/259/310	113	258	12	5	28%	7%	61	-1.5	217/273/330	113	277	10	4	24%	6%	70	-0.8	220/280/334	115	276	11	2	23%	7%	72	-0.3
✕Tyler Kolodny 2010 · A	22	40→36	43→45	49→50	41	200/271/316	116	273	11	8	30%	6%	67	-1.1	208/282/338	130	278	13	10	29%	6%	76	-0.4	207/287/352	145	264	16	10	27%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Anthony García 2014 · A	22	38→47	49→55	44→45	37	200/256/352	152	273	17	6	33%	5%	70	-0.9	207/275/344	137	258	14	6	25%	7%	75	-0.5	219/290/359	140	265	17	4	24%	7%	83	+0.0
✕Anderson Gomes 2007 · A	22	42→40	42→45	47→50	39	207/256/314	107	282	10	9	30%	5%	60	-1.6	223/276/335	112	301	11	7	28%	6%	72	-0.7	229/283/339	110	302	11	5	27%	7%	75	-0.2
✕Rodolfo Castro 2021 · A	22	37→41	48→55	46→50	35	195/236/334	139	275	15	6	35%	5%	57	-1.8	212/267/368	156	279	19	8	31%	6%	78	-0.3	206/269/359	153	269	19	7	30%	7%	74	-0.4
✕Felix Reyes 2022 · A	21	41→51	43→50	49→45	38	202/267/313	110	283	10	12	31%	5%	65	-1.2	202/243/314	112	256	13	7	26%	4%	55	-1.9	240/273/379	139	275	15	8	19%	4%	81	-0.0
✕Alexander Canario 2022 · A	22	36→34	50→60	50	36	193/240/341	148	278	18	14	37%	6%	61	-1.5	207/269/387	180	291	23	14	36%	7%	83	+0.1	201/270/393	193	274	26	13	36%	8%	82	-0.0
✕Kyler Fedko 2023 · A	23	43→42	42→50	51→55	47	210/284/319	109	280	9	10	27%	8%	72	-0.7	203/288/320	117	266	12	14	26%	10%	74	-0.5	197/276/341	144	245	18	22	27%	9%	73	-0.4
✕Parker Meadows 2022 · A	22	36→46	42→55	43→55	40	183/242/280	97	259	10	9	32%	6%	47	-2.5	216/279/367	151	277	16	17	27%	8%	81	-0.1	222/289/387	165	276	18	21	26%	8%	87	+0.4
✕Curtis Terry 2019 · A	22	45→40	41→55	49→30	40	216/268/323	106	300	8	6	30%	6%	66	-1.1	219/276/375	156	287	18	3	30%	5%	82	+0.0	212/275/372	160	262	19	1	26%	6%	78	-0.2
✕Iverson Leonardo 2023 · A	21	37	44→50	49→50	40	187/257/301	114	274	12	9	35%	7%	58	-1.7	198/280/293	95	349	7	8	41%	9%	65	-1.2	152/277/229	77	359	3	4	50%	12%	49	-0.5
●Kody Hinze 2009 · A	22	42→47	46→50	45→30	47	211/280/337	125	278	13	4	28%	8%	75	-0.5	211/283/344	133	293	15	2	31%	8%	78	-0.3	219/296/371	151	292	19	1	30%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Jack Brannigan 2023 · A	22	42	43→50	48→50	43	204/282/312	108	305	11	13	34%	8%	70	-0.8	201/283/352	151	301	18	17	37%	9%	80	-0.1	184/270/336	152	267	19	18	36%	9%	69	-0.5
✕Yu Chang 2017 · A	21	40→44	45→50	49→45	38	203/253/331	128	284	12	8	32%	6%	63	-1.3	200/259/336	136	279	14	8	32%	6%	67	-1.1	212/267/370	158	271	20	6	29%	6%	76	-0.2

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps