T.J. Brock prospect projection, MLE, ETA

T.J. Brock P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 60 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 92

ERA3.94

FIP3.94

K%31.4%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%20.1%

ROS IP60

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF7070

CMD3040

K†7070

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	12	56	22	6	1	0%	1.2	29.1%	13.0%	16.0%	2.5%	5.11	3.66	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	12	56	22	6	1	0%	1.2	39.3%	10.7%	28.6%	1.8%	5.11	2.05	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	53	233	87	23	8	0%	1.1	29.7%	11.1%	18.7%	4.0%	4.78	4.20	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	53	233	87	23	8	0%	1.1	29.7%	11.1%	18.7%	4.0%	4.78	4.20	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	53	233	87	23	8	0%	1.1	37.3%	9.9%	27.5%	3.4%	4.78	3.08	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	1	11	45	20	7	0	9%	1.0	44.4%	15.6%	28.9%	0.0%	0.79	1.32	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	1	11	45	20	7	0	9%	1.0	44.4%	15.6%	28.9%	0.0%	0.79	1.32	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	11	1	11	45	20	7	0	9%	1.0	44.4%	15.6%	28.9%	0.0%	0.79	1.42	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	8	0	8	40	11	8	2	0%	1.0	—	—	—	—	8.22	—	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	8	0	8	40	11	8	2	0%	1.0	—	—	—	—	8.22	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	ROK RAW	TOR	1	0	1	5	3	2	0	0%	1.0	60.0%	40.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2026	26	A RAW	TOR	2	0	2	10	5	0	1	0%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	10.0%	9.00	4.37	—
2026	26	AA RAW	TOR	5	0	5	25	3	6	1	0%	0.9	12.0%	24.0%	-12.0%	4.0%	9.64	7.32	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	TOR	66	0	69	291	89	33	9	0%	1.0	30.6%	11.2%	19.4%	3.1%	4.00	4.01	+0.4
2028	28	MLB MLE	TOR	64	0	67	282	85	32	9	0%	1.0	29.9%	11.2%	18.8%	3.2%	4.08	4.12	+0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	TOR	61	0	64	270	79	30	9	0%	1.0	29.4%	11.3%	18.1%	3.3%	4.19	4.26	+0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	TOR	25	0	26	110	34	12	3	0%	1.0	30.6%	11.2%	19.4%	3.1%	4.00	4.01	+0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	TOR	38	0	40	169	51	19	5	0%	1.1	29.9%	11.2%	18.8%	3.2%	4.08	4.12	+0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	TOR	43	0	45	190	56	21	6	0%	1.0	29.4%	11.3%	18.1%	3.3%	4.19	4.26	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		106	0	111	468	140	53	15	0%	1.0	29.9%	11.2%	18.6%	3.2%	4.11	3.77	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	252	96	27	0%	1.1	29.9%	11.2%	18.6%	3.2%	4.11	3.77	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		76	1	84	374	117	48	13	1%	1.1	31.2%	12.8%	18.3%	3.4%	4.61	3.97	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		181	2	200	890	277	114	30	1%	1.1	31.2%	12.8%	18.3%	3.4%	4.61	3.97	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
T.J. Brock (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.94	31.4%	11.3%	3.1%	—	4.13	30.0%	18.8%	200	+0.19	—	—	—
Jon Edwards R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	31.7%	13.1%	2.4%	.264	2.40	30.3%	22.6%	30	-1.00	2.40	132	88
Tucker Healy R 2016 · 2.82 FIP	26	SU	2.82	30.4%	10.5%	1.8%	.294	4.64	16.9%	5.8%	67	+1.82	2.82	174	87
Kiko Calero R 2003 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	31.5%	11.1%	3.1%	.273	3.11	26.1%	18.9%	159	-0.43	2.27	298	85
Brad Lidge R 2003 · 2.97 FIP	26	SU	2.97	27.8%	10.0%	1.7%	.256	2.24	36.7%	28.9%	240	-0.73	1.56	595	84
Zac Leigh R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	28.1%	11.7%	3.0%	.282	4.56	20.2%	4.0%	131	+0.72	3.70	201	82
Mychal Givens R 2016 · 2.84 FIP	26	SU	2.84	30.7%	10.9%	1.7%	.299	3.27	28.3%	20.0%	218	+0.43	1.77	526	82
Brad Brach R 2012 · 4.12 FIP	26	SU	4.12	26.8%	9.3%	3.8%	.232	3.54	24.3%	13.5%	173	-0.58	2.69	570	82
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.36	21.4%	10.8%	92	+0.05	3.89	168	81
Lucas Wepf R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	27.6%	10.7%	2.7%	.323	3.97	26.2%	13.8%	136	+0.35	2.90	195	81
Simon Castro R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	26.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.320	3.58	26.0%	17.6%	128	+0.30	3.01	185	80
Spencer Patton R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	27	SU	3.47	26.8%	9.6%	2.6%	.295	2.79	30.3%	18.1%	57	-0.68	2.79	239	80
Sam Wolff R 2017 · 3.40 FIP	26	SU	3.40	26.6%	8.0%	2.8%	.291	2.98	24.1%	13.3%	63	-0.42	2.66	178	80
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	80
Jose Veras R 2008 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	24.9%	9.1%	2.8%	.281	4.10	23.8%	11.7%	169	+0.43	3.37	422	80
Lou Trivino R 2018 · 3.54 FIP	26	SU	3.54	27.4%	9.0%	2.9%	.247	3.90	22.4%	11.8%	157	+0.36	2.39	595	79
Ben Heller R 2017 · 2.86 FIP	25	SU	2.86	32.4%	9.4%	2.4%	.243	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	246	79
J.J. Hoover R 2014 · 4.49 FIP	26	SU	4.49	27.3%	10.2%	4.4%	.270	4.36	22.7%	11.9%	163	-0.13	3.03	418	79
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	78
Alex Lange R 2022 · 3.00 FIP	26	SU	3.00	30.3%	11.1%	1.9%	.273	3.86	26.3%	10.9%	108	+0.86	3.00	511	78
Shane Smith R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	23	SU	3.52	28.1%	10.4%	2.7%	.259	3.58	22.9%	13.1%	287	+0.06	3.01	345	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	30.4%	11.2%	1.23	4.05
Ernesto Frieri ('17)	1.5	51	30.1%	11.1%	1.25	3.59
Antonio Bastardo ('17)	2.0	56	28.0%	11.4%	1.01	4.01
Hansel Robles ('22)	2.1	61	25.3%	10.2%	1.20	4.11
Oliver Drake ('20)	1.0	68	26.2%	9.5%	1.06	4.27
Tony Cingrani ('18)	1.7	56	25.8%	11.3%	1.26	4.01
Matt Barnes ('24)	2.3	52	29.0%	10.6%	1.02	4.21