T.J. White
OF Harrisburg Senators| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A+WSH | 430 | .202/.293/.364 | 14 | 4 | 32 | — | .154/.216/.284 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+WSH | 427 | .231/.310/.337 | 7 | 6 | 34 | — | .175/.232/.259 |
| 2026 | 23 | AA/A+WSH | 408 | .237/.344/.395 | 13 | 11 | 66 | — | .200/.277/.327 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBWSH | 4 | .189/.255/.301 | 0 | 0 | 57 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 25 | MLBWSH | 78 | .193/.259/.309 | 2 | 1 | 60 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | FCL Nationals | — | 59 | 53 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 283 | 356 | 547 | 903 | 264 | 314 | 24 | 8 | 394 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 382 | 329 | 85 | 20 | 2 | 11 | 44 | 104 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 258 | 353 | 432 | 784 | 173 | 343 | 27 | 12 | 349 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 286 | 247 | 42 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 35 | 104 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 170 | 277 | 279 | 557 | 109 | 261 | 36 | 12 | 260 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 430 | 371 | 75 | 14 | 2 | 14 | 48 | 133 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 202 | 293 | 364 | 657 | 162 | 268 | 31 | 11 | 293 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 427 | 377 | 87 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 40 | 114 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 231 | 310 | 337 | 647 | 106 | 308 | 27 | 9 | 293 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 234 | 206 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 64 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 223 | 297 | 369 | 666 | 146 | 285 | 27 | 9 | 296 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 174 | 136 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 33 | 35 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 257 | 407 | 434 | 841 | 176 | 299 | 20 | 19 | 376 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Nationals | — | 59 | 55 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 254 | 382 | 636 | 182 | 246 | 34 | 5 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 382 | 343 | 73 | 17 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 146 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 213 | 289 | 344 | 633 | 131 | 334 | 38 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 286 | 261 | 34 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 140 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 130 | 204 | 218 | 422 | 88 | 238 | 49 | 8 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 430 | 395 | 61 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 29 | 179 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 154 | 216 | 284 | 500 | 129 | 227 | 42 | 7 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 427 | 394 | 69 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 155 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 175 | 232 | 259 | 491 | 84 | 263 | 36 | 6 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 234 | 215 | 42 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 78 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 195 | 254 | 302 | 557 | 107 | 269 | 33 | 6 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 174 | 150 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 46 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 207 | 308 | 360 | 668 | 153 | 241 | 26 | 11 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Nationals | — | 59 | 55 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 254 | 382 | 636 | 182 | 250 | 34 | 5 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Nationals | — | 59 | 53 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 283 | 356 | 547 | 903 | 264 | 314 | 24 | 8 | 394 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 382 | 343 | 73 | 17 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 146 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 213 | 289 | 344 | 633 | 131 | 340 | 38 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A RAW | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 382 | 329 | 85 | 20 | 2 | 11 | 44 | 104 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 258 | 353 | 432 | 784 | 173 | 343 | 27 | 12 | 349 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 286 | 261 | 34 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 140 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 130 | 204 | 218 | 422 | 88 | 248 | 49 | 8 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ RAW | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 286 | 247 | 42 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 35 | 104 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 170 | 277 | 279 | 557 | 109 | 261 | 36 | 12 | 260 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 430 | 395 | 61 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 29 | 179 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 154 | 216 | 284 | 500 | 129 | 236 | 42 | 7 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ RAW | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 430 | 371 | 75 | 14 | 2 | 14 | 48 | 133 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 202 | 293 | 364 | 657 | 162 | 268 | 31 | 11 | 293 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 427 | 394 | 69 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 155 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 175 | 232 | 259 | 491 | 84 | 266 | 36 | 6 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ RAW | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 427 | 377 | 87 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 40 | 114 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 231 | 310 | 337 | 647 | 106 | 308 | 27 | 9 | 293 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 408 | 365 | 73 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 35 | 124 | 4 | 11 | 4 | 200 | 277 | 326 | 603 | 126 | 265 | 30 | 9 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 408 | 342 | 81 | 13 | 1 | 13 | 54 | 99 | 4 | 11 | 4 | 237 | 344 | 395 | 739 | 158 | 291 | 24 | 13 | 330 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Nationals | — | 59 | 55 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 254 | 382 | 636 | 182 | 246 | 34 | 5 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 382 | 342 | 73 | 17 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 146 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 213 | 289 | 345 | 635 | 132 | 334 | 38 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 286 | 260 | 34 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 140 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 131 | 204 | 219 | 423 | 88 | 238 | 49 | 8 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 430 | 396 | 61 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 29 | 179 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 154 | 216 | 283 | 499 | 129 | 227 | 42 | 7 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 427 | 395 | 69 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 155 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 175 | 232 | 258 | 490 | 84 | 263 | 36 | 6 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 408 | 366 | 73 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 35 | 124 | 4 | 11 | 4 | 199 | 277 | 325 | 602 | 126 | 257 | 30 | 9 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 430 | 396 | 61 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 29 | 179 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 154 | 216 | 283 | 499 | 129 | 227 | 42 | 7 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 427 | 395 | 69 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 155 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 175 | 232 | 258 | 490 | 84 | 263 | 36 | 6 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 408 | 366 | 73 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 35 | 124 | 4 | 11 | 4 | 199 | 277 | 325 | 602 | 126 | 257 | 30 | 9 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | WSH | 2% | 380 | 346 | 66 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 28 | 123 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 189 | 255 | 302 | 557 | 113 | 262 | 32 | 7 | 252 | 57 | -20 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +8 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | WSH | 2% | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 189 | 255 | 301 | 556 | 112 | 261 | 25 | 0 | 252 | 57 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | WSH | 31% | 251 | 228 | 44 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 80 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 193 | 259 | 310 | 569 | 117 | 263 | 32 | 8 | 257 | 60 | -12 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +5 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | WSH | 31% | 78 | 71 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 193 | 259 | 309 | 568 | 116 | 263 | 32 | 8 | 257 | 60 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +2 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 78 | 71 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 183 | 256 | 296 | 552 | 113 | 250 | 32 | 8 | 257 | 48 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +2 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 592 | 109 | 17 | 0 | 17 | 50 | 208 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 184 | 257 | 299 | 556 | 115 | 251 | 32 | 8 | 257 | 48 | -31 | +2 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -1.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2453 | 2232 | 402 | 68 | 11 | 56 | 180 | 912 | 22 | 36 | 10 | 180 | 248 | 296 | 544 | 116 | 270 | 37 | 7 | 239 | 48 | -23 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +10 | -1.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 591 | 107 | 18 | 3 | 15 | 48 | 242 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 181 | 250 | 298 | 548 | 117 | 271 | 37 | 7 | 239 | 48 | -32 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -2.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAHarrisburg Senators · 234 PAwOBA .291 → .248 (−43)K% 27.4% → 33.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.35% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.97% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 6.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.85% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.979 | ×1.027 | 21.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.93% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.979 | ×1.027 | 4.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×0.979 | ×1.027 | 0.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.93% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 3.95% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .291 → .248; ISO .146 → .118; BABIP .285 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 174 PAwOBA .372 → .288 (−84)K% 20.1% → 26.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.11% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 26.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.97% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 11.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.15% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 0.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.77% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×0.953 | ×0.998 | 18.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×0.953 | ×0.998 | 4.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.953 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 5.22% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.
Result: wOBA .372 → .288; ISO .176 → .158; BABIP .299 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 427 PAwOBA .288 → .218 (−70)K% 26.7% → 36.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.70% | ÷0.960 | ×1.310 | — | — | 36.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.37% | ÷0.986 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 5.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.94% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.95% | ÷1.004 | ×0.870 | ×0.986 | ×1.012 | 20.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.70% | ÷0.948 | ×0.780 | ×0.986 | ×1.012 | 4.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.986 | ×1.012 | 0.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.66% | ÷0.967 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 2.45% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 101, 2B 90, 3B 100, K 92, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .288 → .218; ISO .106 → .086; BABIP .308 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 430 PAwOBA .288 → .216 (−72)K% 30.9% → 41.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.93% | ÷0.974 | ×1.310 | — | — | 41.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.16% | ÷1.015 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 6.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.47% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 0.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.91% | ÷1.008 | ×0.870 | ×0.976 | ×1.027 | 16.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷0.942 | ×0.780 | ×0.976 | ×1.027 | 4.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.84% | ÷0.984 | ×0.850 | ×0.976 | ×1.027 | 0.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.016 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 5.23% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 102, 2B 88, 3B 97, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .288 → .216; ISO .162 → .131; BABIP .268 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 286 PAwOBA .254 → .189 (−66)K% 36.4% → 49.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.36% | ÷0.973 | ×1.310 | — | — | 48.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.24% | ÷1.005 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.042 | 7.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.70% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.042 | 0.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.28% | ÷0.981 | ×0.870 | ×0.986 | ×1.042 | 18.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.50% | ÷0.894 | ×0.780 | ×0.986 | ×1.042 | 3.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.40% | ÷0.913 | ×0.850 | ×0.986 | ×1.042 | 1.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.20% | ÷0.913 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.042 | 4.21% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 96, 2B 79, 3B 83, K 95, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .254 → .189; ISO .109 → .092; BABIP .261 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AFredericksburg Nationals · 382 PAwOBA .341 → .276 (−64)K% 27.2% → 38.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.23% | ÷0.966 | ×1.360 | — | — | 38.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.26% | ÷0.970 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 8.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.31% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 1.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.11% | ÷0.986 | ×0.920 | ×1.024 | ×1.045 | 23.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.89% | ÷0.933 | ×0.830 | ×1.024 | ×1.045 | 8.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.89% | ÷0.910 | ×0.910 | ×1.024 | ×1.045 | 0.95% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.89% | ÷1.074 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 3.81% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 97, 2B 87, 3B 82, K 93, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.
Result: wOBA .341 → .276; ISO .173 → .132; BABIP .343 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKFCL Nationals · 59 PAwOBA .383 → .267 (−116)K% 23.7% → 34.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.73% | ÷0.996 | ×1.440 | — | — | 34.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.47% | ÷1.009 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 5.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.69% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 1.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷1.027 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.022 | 18.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.13% | ÷0.989 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 3.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.26% | ÷1.017 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 8.05% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 105, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .383 → .267; ISO .264 → .184; BABIP .314 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).