Edwin Arroyo

SS Louisville Bats

Age 23 S/R 5'11" / 173 lbs AAA HR +16%BB +6% Svc 1.000 · Ctrl thru 2031

Overview

AAA40-MANFG #430Pre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	20	INTLGlendale Dese…	81	.253/.309/.333	0	7	83	—
2025	21	AACIN	521	.284/.350/.371	3	12	87	—	.278/.325/.351
2025	21	INTLCangrejeros d…	70	.355/.429/.468	0	1	159	—
2026	22	MLBCIN	160	.223/.268/.264	0	1	48	-0.1
2027PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBCIN	122	.253/.302/.374	2	6	87	0.4
2028PROJ65% MLB	24	MLBCIN	389	.257/.307/.388	9	18	92	1.4
2029PROJ73% MLB	25	MLBCIN	453	.258/.310/.397	11	21	95	1.8

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.000First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$7M2030Arb-2$12M2031Arb-3$17M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

Speed84

xwOBA35

Avg EV35

Barrel%10

CompsAlen Hanson (age 23) · Dalton Pompey (age 23) · Brayan Rocchio (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†87

AVG/OBP/SLG.253 / .302 / .374

PA122

HR2

SB6

K%20

BB%5

BABIP302

ISO106

MLB%49%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$23M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 51 / POW 48

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2026

CONTACT51

xAVG

710.268

POWER48

Barrel%

102.7

Avg EV

3588.0

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED55

Sprint

8428.8

DEFENSE58

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$2M	+$1.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$10M	+$10M
2029	Arb-1	$7M	+1.8	$12M	+$7M
2030	Arb-2	$12M	+2.0	$13M	+$4M
2031	Arb-3	$17M	+1.9	$11M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$20M		$48M	+$22M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	17	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	86	71	15	2	0	2	10	26	4	4	1	211	341	324	665	113	295	30	12	309	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	INTL	RA12	—	65	56	14	3	0	0	6	14	1	1	0	250	333	304	637	54	333	22	9	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	519	461	137	25	10	14	44	121	10	25	6	297	371	486	857	189	373	23	8	376	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	INTL	Indios de Mayaguez	—	37	27	4	0	0	0	9	9	1	0	0	148	378	148	527		222	24	24	287	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	20	17	6	2	1	0	1	6	1	1	0	353	421	588	1.009	235	500	30	5	417	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	534	475	118	26	10	13	48	112	5	28	7	248	323	427	751	179	297	21	9	330	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	81	75	19	4	1	0	6	19	0	7	0	253	309	333	642	80	339	23	7	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	521	464	132	23	4	3	40	88	7	12	7	284	350	371	721	86	339	17	8	322	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	INTL	Cangrejeros de Santurce	—	70	62	22	5	1	0	4	9	4	1	0	355	429	468	896	113	415	13	6	404	159	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	160	148	33	4	1	0	6	38	3	1	1	223	268	264	531	41	297	24	4	241	48	-10	-0	+0	+6	+3	-0.1
2026	22	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	354	309	93	14	5	15	29	68	5	13	0	301	368	524	892	223	341	19	8	380	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	160	148	33	4	1	0	6	38	3	1	1	223	268	264	531	41	297	24	4	241	49	-10	-0	+0	+6	+3	-0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	17	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	—	86	75	11	1	0	2	6	38	4	4	1	147	247	240	487	93	238	44	7	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	519	473	113	19	8	12	32	161	10	25	6	239	301	389	690	150	329	31	6	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	20	17	6	2	1	0	1	8	1	1	0	353	421	588	1.009	235	470	40	5	380	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	534	490	104	20	9	11	34	146	5	28	7	212	270	357	627	145	273	27	6	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	521	478	133	21	4	2	26	106	7	12	7	278	325	351	676	73	337	20	5	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	160	148	33	4	1	0	6	38	3	1	1	223	268	264	531	41	297	24	4	239	48	-10	-0	+0	+6	+3	-0.1
2026	22	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	354	321	85	12	5	11	19	82	5	13	0	265	316	436	752	171	312	23	5	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	151	132	19	2	0	3	11	66	5	5	1	144	236	227	464	83	250	44	7	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	151	127	29	5	0	2	16	40	5	5	1	228	338	315	653	87	314	26	11	300	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	556	507	122	20	9	13	34	173	11	25	6	241	303	393	695	152	335	31	6	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	A RAW	2 teams	—	556	488	141	25	10	14	53	130	11	25	6	289	371	467	839	178	365	23	10	370	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	554	507	110	22	10	11	35	153	6	29	7	217	276	365	640	148	284	28	6	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	554	492	124	28	11	13	49	118	6	29	7	252	327	433	760	181	303	21	9	333	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	INTL MLE	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	81	75	19	4	1	0	6	19	0	7	0	253	309	333	642	80	339	23	7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	INTL RAW	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	81	75	19	4	1	0	6	19	0	7	0	253	309	333	642	80	339	23	7	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	591	540	151	24	4	3	30	121	11	13	7	280	330	356	686	76	349	20	5	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA RAW	2 teams	—	591	526	154	28	5	3	44	97	11	13	7	293	360	382	742	89	348	16	7	331	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	514	469	118	16	6	11	25	120	8	14	1	252	301	382	682	130	313	23	5	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	514	457	126	18	6	15	35	106	8	14	1	276	337	440	776	164	326	21	7	337	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	151	134	19	2	0	3	11	66	5	5	1	142	236	224	460	82	238	44	7	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	556	506	122	20	9	13	34	173	11	25	6	241	303	393	696	152	329	31	6	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	554	508	110	22	10	11	35	153	6	29	7	217	276	364	640	148	280	28	6	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	591	545	151	24	4	3	30	121	11	13	7	277	330	352	683	75	337	20	5	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	514	476	118	16	6	11	25	120	8	14	1	248	301	376	677	128	307	23	5	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	591	545	151	24	4	3	30	121	11	13	7	277	330	352	683	75	337	20	5	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	514	476	118	16	6	11	25	120	8	14	1	248	301	376	677	128	307	23	5	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CIN	49%	606	562	141	20	6	11	30	124	9	28	6	251	300	367	667	116	301	20	5	297	87	-9	+3	+4	+6	+13	0.9
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	CIN	49%	122	113	28	4	1	2	6	25	2	6	1	253	302	374	675	121	302	20	5	301	87	-2	+1	+1	+1	+3	0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CIN	65%	598	553	141	20	6	13	32	121	8	27	5	254	305	381	685	127	302	20	5	305	92	-5	+3	+4	+6	+13	2.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	CIN	73%	623	575	147	21	6	15	34	127	9	28	6	255	307	388	696	133	301	20	5	309	95	-3	+3	+5	+7	+13	2.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	CIN	76%	623	573	147	22	6	15	36	127	9	28	6	255	309	392	700	137	301	20	6	311	97	-2	+3	+5	+7	+13	2.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	CIN	76%	618	569	144	22	5	15	36	128	8	27	6	254	308	390	699	136	300	21	6	310	96	-3	+3	+4	+7	+13	2.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	CIN	76%	610	560	141	21	5	15	37	128	8	24	5	252	307	387	694	135	299	21	6	308	95	-4	+3	+4	+7	+13	2.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	CIN	74%	598	549	138	21	5	14	36	127	8	20	4	250	304	381	685	131	298	21	6	305	93	-5	+2	+3	+6	+13	2.0
2034	30	MLB MLE	CIN	73%	586	540	134	20	5	13	34	126	7	16	4	247	301	374	675	127	297	22	6	301	90	-7	+2	+2	+6	+13	1.6
2035	31	MLB MLE	CIN	73%	571	526	128	19	4	12	33	125	7	11	3	243	296	365	661	122	294	22	6	295	86	-10	+1	+1	+6	+12	1.1
2036	32	MLB MLE	CIN	72%	552	510	122	18	4	11	31	124	6	6	2	238	290	353	643	115	291	22	6	287	81	-13	+0	+1	+6	+12	0.6
2037	33	MLB MLE	CIN	72%	522	482	112	16	4	9	29	120	6	2	2	232	283	339	622	107	287	23	6	279	75	-16	-0	-0	+6	+11	0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	CIN	65%	389	360	93	13	4	9	21	79	5	18	4	257	307	388	695	132	303	20	5	309	92	-3	+2	+3	+4	+8	1.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	CIN	73%	453	419	107	15	4	11	25	92	6	21	4	258	310	397	706	139	303	20	6	313	95	-3	+3	+3	+5	+10	1.8
2030	26	MLB CTX	CIN	76%	475	439	113	16	4	13	27	97	6	21	4	258	311	400	711	143	302	20	6	315	97	-2	+3	+3	+5	+10	2.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	CIN	76%	470	433	110	16	4	12	28	97	6	21	4	256	311	399	709	142	301	21	6	315	96	-2	+3	+3	+5	+10	1.9
2032	28	MLB CTX	CIN	76%	464	427	109	16	4	12	28	97	6	18	4	254	309	395	704	141	300	21	6	313	95	-3	+2	+3	+5	+10	1.7
2033	29	MLB CTX	CIN	74%	444	409	103	15	4	11	26	94	6	15	3	252	306	389	696	137	299	21	6	309	93	-4	+2	+2	+5	+10	1.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	CIN	73%	429	396	97	14	3	10	25	92	5	12	3	249	303	382	685	132	298	21	6	304	90	-5	+1	+2	+5	+9	1.2
2035	31	MLB CTX	CIN	73%	415	383	95	14	3	10	24	91	5	8	2	245	298	372	670	127	295	22	6	298	86	-7	+1	+1	+4	+9	0.8
2036	32	MLB CTX	CIN	72%	399	368	89	13	3	9	23	89	5	4	2	240	292	360	652	120	292	22	6	291	81	-9	+0	+0	+4	+9	0.4
2037	33	MLB CTX	CIN	72%	376	348	81	11	3	7	21	86	4	1	1	234	285	345	630	111	288	23	6	282	75	-11	-0	-0	+4	+8	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4474	4130	1030	147	37	104	254	952	57	140	32	249	302	378	680	129	299	21	6	303	86	-59	+15	+21	+52	+97	12.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	600	149	21	5	15	37	138	8	20	5	248	301	375	676	127	298	21	6	303	86	-9	+2	+3	+8	+14	1.9
Career	—	MLE		—	8598	7898	1951	296	82	178	492	1956	121	294	67	247	301	373	674	126	305	23	6	295	86	-82	+22	+30	+71	+137	18.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	597	146	22	6	13	37	148	9	22	5	245	299	367	665	122	302	23	6	295	86	-8	+2	+3	+7	+14	1.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tim Andersonlast yr '25 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,139 PA	6.2	4,139	98	122	276	307	407	+44	+48	21.6	22.0
/162	664	16	20	+7.0	+7.7	3.5	pk7: 22
#2Erick Aybarlast yr '17 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,588 PA	8.4	5,588	58	154	271	314	372	+58	+49	22.0	21.3
/162	664	7	18	+6.9	+5.8	2.6	pk7: 21
#3Orlando Cabrera'97-'11 * career totals — 14 seasons, 8,255 PA	12.4	8,255	123	216	262*	308*	381*	+84	+5	19.8	19.1
/162	664	10	17	+6.8	+0.4	1.6	pk7: 18
#4Alcides Escobarlast yr '22 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,178 PA	9.3	6,178	45	178	258	295	345	+66	+92	19.2	18.2
/162	664	5	19	+7.1	+9.9	2.1	pk7: 17
#5George Cutshaw'12-'23 * career totals — 12 seasons, 6,213 PA	9.4	6,213	25	271	255*	304*	400*	+22	+40	16.7	16.5
/162	664	3	29	+2.4	+4.3	1.8	pk7: 16
#6Bucky Harris'19-'31 * career totals — 9 seasons, 5,556 PA	8.4	5,556	9	167	242*	319*	362*	+20	+27	14.1	14.6
/162	664	1	20	+2.4	+3.3	1.7	pk7: 15
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	6.9	4,598	99	146	249	298	373	+49	+31	13.0	12.3
/162	664	14	21	+7.1	+4.5	1.9	pk7: 12

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Edwin Arroyo (OGILVIE)	23	49→51	45→48	55	45	249/297/364	115	301	5	12	20%	5%	87	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Alen Hanson 2016 · AAA	23	50→53	43→50	60	42	245/281/370	125	300	9	25	22%	5%	81	-0.1	247/283/374	127	300	11	28	21%	5%	83	+0.1	253/288/390	138	302	12	30	20%	4%	87	+0.3
✕Dalton Pompey 2016 · MLB	23	55→60	42→45	59→55	48	264/322/376	112	330	8	26	22%	8%	98	+1.2	245/303/341	96	316	8	21	23%	7%	84	+0.1	238/298/327	89	312	8	20	25%	7%	76	-0.2
✕Brayan Rocchio 2024 · MLB	23	51→56	43→45	51→50	48	246/307/368	123	297	10	16	20%	7%	92	+0.7	231/300/353	122	273	11	16	19%	8%	86	+0.3	225/297/350	125	260	12	16	18%	7%	85	+0.2
✕Ramon Santiago 2003 · MLB	23	49→52	45	52→50	46	238/304/366	128	281	12	16	20%	6%	91	+0.6	223/288/310	87	254	7	13	15%	6%	72	-0.7	256/332/354	98	297	10	3	16%	8%	98	+0.6
✕Ji Hwan Bae 2023 · MLB	24	52→55	42→45	58→60	46	250/307/366	116	317	8	27	23%	7%	91	+0.6	247/311/349	102	333	7	31	25%	8%	88	+0.4	246/318/343	97	336	6	39	26%	9%	87	+0.2
✕Ryan Kalish 2011 · MLB	23	51→53	48→50	57→55	49	254/316/397	143	308	15	23	22%	8%	101	+1.4	234/291/348	114	301	11	21	25%	7%	81	-0.1	217/264/312	94	293	8	20	27%	6%	59	-0.9
●Maikel Garcia 2023 · MLB	23	52→58	41→45	57→60	48	250/309/356	106	315	8	27	22%	8%	88	+0.5	254/311/364	110	310	8	26	19%	8%	92	+0.7	260/322/390	130	293	10	24	14%	8%	102	+1.4
✕Masyn Winn 2024 · MLB	22	47→53	46→50	59→55	46	231/290/362	131	284	12	21	23%	7%	84	+0.1	247/304/374	127	293	12	12	19%	7%	92	+0.7	248/309/365	117	296	11	11	19%	7%	93	+0.8
●Andrés Giménez 2022 · MLB	23	48→58	47→50	55	40	240/296/380	140	304	15	23	26%	5%	91	+0.6	261/321/406	145	308	15	24	20%	5%	106	+1.8	260/319/392	131	301	14	27	18%	5%	103	+1.6
✕José Rodríguez 2024 · AAA	23	47→54	47→50	56→55	40	240/272/375	134	290	15	28	23%	4%	80	-0.2	238/276/350	112	288	11	22	21%	5%	75	-0.5	255/293/345	89	297	7	25	16%	4%	78	-0.1
●Erick Aybar 2007 · MLB	23	55→63	42→45	57→60	45	263/300/378	115	289	8	35	13%	4%	91	+0.6	262/301/361	99	295	6	19	13%	4%	86	+0.3	276/312/401	125	300	8	21	11%	4%	101	+1.3
✕Arismendy Alcántara 2015 · MLB	23	47→51	49→55	57→55	40	237/279/392	156	310	15	23	28%	6%	86	+0.3	212/254/352	140	300	13	22	32%	5%	68	-1.0	211/258/373	162	290	17	14	32%	6%	72	-0.4
●Cristian Guzman 2001 · MLB	23	50→60	44→50	62→55	50	242/294/379	137	273	8	22	15%	7%	88	+0.5	269/305/404	135	303	9	20	14%	5%	98	+1.2	301/331/418	117	331	7	5	11%	4%	112	+1.6
✕Luis Rivas 2003 · MLB	23	53→55	42→50	54→55	48	255/304/371	116	291	8	21	16%	6%	91	+0.6	250/293/381	131	277	11	19	14%	5%	88	+0.5	247/288/374	127	271	11	19	13%	5%	86	+0.2
✕Roman Quinn 2016 · AA	23	53→57	42→45	59→65	44	253/307/356	103	328	9	34	25%	6%	88	+0.5	254/308/361	107	345	7	35	26%	7%	89	+0.5	258/314/371	113	353	6	42	27%	7%	91	+0.3
✕Orlando Arcia 2018 · MLB	23	51→59	45→50	51→55	43	253/291/377	124	298	12	17	20%	5%	87	+0.4	243/288/359	116	293	12	11	21%	6%	82	+0.0	243/304/399	156	273	20	3	19%	7%	98	+0.8
●Luis Rengifo 2019 · AAA	22	51→58	43→55	57→55	48	244/307/365	122	298	8	25	20%	7%	91	+0.6	238/306/364	126	292	11	14	21%	8%	90	+0.6	274/324/432	159	308	18	16	17%	6%	114	+1.8
●Scott Kingery 2018 · AAA	24	50→52	46→55	56→55	42	245/289/377	132	297	12	20	22%	5%	86	+0.3	237/285/387	150	305	15	15	26%	6%	88	+0.4	229/281/383	154	299	15	14	28%	6%	86	+0.2
✕Elliot Johnson 2007 · AA	23	50→57	46→50	54→60	40	243/284/376	133	319	12	21	28%	5%	84	+0.2	223/270/353	130	303	12	16	29%	5%	74	-0.5	249/292/381	132	322	13	22	26%	5%	85	+0.1
✕Manuel Margot 2018 · MLB	23	52→55	44→50	57→60	46	255/299/379	124	296	10	23	18%	6%	91	+0.6	246/299/384	138	289	12	20	19%	7%	92	+0.7	258/311/370	112	300	9	15	17%	7%	94	+0.6

Edwin Arroyo

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps