Christian McGowan

Christian McGowan P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 205 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 110

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%20.7%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%8.8%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	1	5	18	8	1	0	25%	1.2	44.4%	5.6%	38.9%	0.0%	0.00	0.05	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	1	5	18	8	1	0	25%	1.2	44.4%	5.6%	38.9%	0.0%	0.00	0.50	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	2	2	7	29	7	2	1	100%	3.7	24.1%	6.9%	17.2%	3.4%	4.91	3.83	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	2	2	7	29	7	2	1	100%	3.7	24.1%	6.9%	17.2%	3.4%	4.91	3.78	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	9	9	26	108	28	10	1	100%	2.9	20.1%	8.8%	11.3%	0.0%	3.86	2.52	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	9	9	26	108	28	10	1	100%	2.9	20.1%	8.8%	11.3%	0.0%	3.86	2.52	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	9	9	26	108	28	10	1	100%	2.9	25.9%	9.3%	16.7%	0.9%	3.86	2.59	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	11	40	189	47	23	6	79%	2.9	18.9%	13.8%	5.1%	3.8%	5.36	5.34	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	11	40	189	47	23	6	79%	2.9	18.9%	13.8%	5.1%	3.8%	5.36	5.34	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	11	40	189	47	23	6	79%	2.9	24.9%	12.2%	12.7%	3.2%	5.36	4.41	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	45	1	54	239	54	23	6	2%	1.2	18.7%	10.7%	8.0%	2.5%	3.48	4.23	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	45	1	54	239	54	23	6	2%	1.2	18.7%	10.7%	8.0%	2.5%	3.48	4.23	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	A RAW	PHI	6	0	8	34	7	3	2	0%	1.3	20.6%	8.8%	11.8%	5.9%	4.70	5.71	—
2026	26	A+ RAW	PHI	1	0	2	10	2	1	0	0%	2.0	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	13.50	2.68	—
2026	26	AA RAW	PHI	38	1	45	195	45	19	4	3%	1.2	23.1%	9.7%	13.3%	2.1%	2.82	3.51	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	PHI	50	0	52	221	46	26	7	0%	1.0	20.9%	11.7%	9.2%	3.1%	4.88	4.89	-0.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	PHI	48	0	51	214	45	25	7	0%	1.1	21.0%	11.7%	9.3%	3.2%	4.90	4.94	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	PHI	19	0	20	84	18	10	3	0%	1.1	20.9%	11.7%	9.2%	3.1%	4.88	4.89	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	PHI	29	0	30	127	27	15	4	0%	1.0	21.0%	11.7%	9.3%	3.2%	4.90	4.94	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		48	0	50	211	44	25	7	0%	1.0	21.0%	11.7%	9.3%	3.2%	4.89	4.54	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	100	28	0%	1.1	21.0%	11.7%	9.3%	3.2%	4.89	4.54	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		74	24	133	583	117	64	14	32%	1.8	20.1%	11.0%	9.1%	2.4%	4.07	4.12	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		112	36	200	879	177	97	21	32%	1.8	20.1%	11.0%	9.1%	2.4%	4.07	4.12	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian McGowan (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	20.7%	11.9%	3.1%	—	4.91	21.0%	9.3%	103	-0.01	—	—	—
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	87
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	82
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	81
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	81
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	81
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	81
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	81
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	81
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	80
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	80
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	80
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	80
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	80
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	79
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	79
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	79
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	79
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	79
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	79
Matt Wivinis R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	19.5%	12.2%	1.5%	.262	5.95	14.5%	6.2%	17	+2.11	1.61	124	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	40	20.9%	11.7%	1.21	4.89
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99