Cody Adcock

P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 205 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	28	51	3.91	2.47	27.0%	11.3%	—	K 20.2% · BB 13.2% · FIP 3.36
2025	23	A+CIN	40	62	4.19	4.94	24.1%	14.3%	—	K 18.6% · BB 16.5% · FIP 5.75
2026	24	MIX2 levels	39	63	3.88	3.56	31.3%	14.9%	—	K 24.8% · BB 16.8% · FIP 4.57
2027PROJ	25	MLBCIN	67	70	5.60	5.60	22.2%	18.4%	-0.8
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBCIN	30	31	5.46	5.45	22.5%	17.4%	-0.3
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBCIN	42	44	5.39	5.40	22.6%	16.9%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control25Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsCaleb Simpson (age 25) · Nick Ernst (age 25) · Kevin Kopps (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140131vR 123

ERA5.60

FIP5.60

K%22.2%

BB%18.4%

K-BB%3.8%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL2525

CMD3535

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	10	43	11	8	2	0%	1.9	25.6%	18.6%	7.0%	4.7%	5.59	5.85	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	10	43	11	8	2	0%	1.9	25.6%	18.6%	7.0%	4.7%	5.59	6.00	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	51	222	60	25	1	0%	1.8	20.2%	13.2%	7.0%	0.5%	3.91	3.36	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	51	222	60	25	1	0%	1.8	20.2%	13.2%	7.0%	0.5%	3.91	3.36	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	51	222	60	25	1	0%	1.8	27.0%	11.3%	15.8%	0.5%	3.91	2.47	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	40	0	62	286	69	41	10	0%	1.6	18.6%	16.5%	2.1%	3.9%	4.19	5.75	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	40	0	62	286	69	41	10	0%	1.6	18.6%	16.5%	2.1%	3.9%	4.19	5.75	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	40	0	62	286	69	41	10	0%	1.6	24.1%	14.3%	9.8%	3.5%	4.19	4.94	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	63	275	86	41	6	0%	1.6	24.8%	16.8%	8.0%	2.6%	3.88	4.57	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	63	275	86	41	6	0%	1.6	24.8%	16.8%	8.0%	2.6%	3.88	4.57	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	63	275	86	41	6	0%	1.6	31.3%	14.9%	16.4%	2.2%	3.88	3.56	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CIN	67	0	70	296	66	54	9	0%	1.0	22.2%	18.4%	3.8%	3.0%	5.60	5.60	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CIN	67	0	70	296	66	51	9	0%	1.0	22.5%	17.4%	5.1%	3.0%	5.46	5.45	-0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	CIN	66	0	69	291	66	49	9	0%	1.0	22.6%	16.9%	5.7%	3.1%	5.39	5.40	-0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	CIN	64	0	67	282	63	47	9	0%	1.0	22.5%	16.6%	5.8%	3.2%	5.39	5.43	-0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	CIN	61	0	64	270	60	45	9	0%	1.0	22.3%	16.7%	5.6%	3.3%	5.47	5.54	-0.7
2028	26	MLB CTX	CIN	30	0	31	131	29	23	4	0%	1.0	22.5%	17.4%	5.1%	3.0%	5.46	5.45	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	CIN	42	0	44	186	42	31	6	0%	1.0	22.6%	16.9%	5.7%	3.1%	5.39	5.40	-0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	CIN	49	0	51	215	48	36	7	0%	1.0	22.5%	16.6%	5.8%	3.2%	5.39	5.43	-0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	CIN	50	0	52	220	49	37	7	0%	1.0	22.3%	16.7%	5.6%	3.3%	5.47	5.54	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		169	0	177	748	168	126	24	0%	1.0	22.4%	16.8%	5.6%	3.2%	5.43	5.08	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	142	27	0%	1.1	22.4%	16.8%	5.6%	3.2%	5.43	5.08	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		112	0	185	826	177	131	22	0%	1.7	21.5%	15.8%	5.6%	2.6%	4.08	4.72	-2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		121	0	200	891	191	141	23	0%	1.7	21.5%	15.8%	5.6%	2.6%	4.08	4.72	-2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cody Adcock (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.60	22.2%	18.4%	3.0%	—	5.43	22.5%	5.5%	206	-0.17	—	—	—
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	89
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	86
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	85
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	84
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	84
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	84
Kyle Wilcox R 2019 · 5.16 FIP	25	SU	5.16	25.1%	21.2%	2.7%	.310	5.57	25.1%	-1.5%	13	+0.41	2.78	310	84
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	84
Christopher Troye R 2024 · 5.46 FIP	25	SU	5.46	24.2%	17.0%	4.1%	.282	5.61	19.1%	-3.8%	30	+0.15	3.42	158	84
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	25	SU	4.61	20.9%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.12	24.4%	7.6%	107	-0.49	3.92	311	84
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	83
Jeff Ames R 2016 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	18.0%	16.1%	2.8%	.229	4.34	25.2%	11.2%	142	-0.83	3.85	272	83
Ryan Sublette R 2024 · 5.72 FIP	25	SU	5.72	19.9%	17.5%	3.8%	.214	4.47	18.6%	5.0%	53	-1.25	3.74	203	82
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	82
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	82
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	82
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	82
LJ McDonough R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	22.6%	16.7%	2.3%	.385	4.85	20.0%	2.8%	90	+0.31	4.16	127	81
Yunior Montero R 2017 · 5.21 FIP	24	SU	5.21	21.3%	17.6%	3.1%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	127	81
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	22.4%	17.2%	1.21	5.46
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Dave Jolly ('53-'57, -0 WAR*)	1.5	58	20.2%*	14.3%*	0.91*	4.33*