Hayden Durke

P Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 206 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #787

Scout OFP40ETA2028FG ETA2026MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	39	51	3.18	3.88	32.1%	19.6%	—	K 26.1% · BB 21.7% · FIP 4.64
2025	23	MIX3 levels	45	49	4.22	2.37	34.9%	15.6%	—	K 27.2% · BB 16.8% · FIP 3.33
2026	24	AAARI	12	14	7.71	4.31	34.8%	18.8%	—	K 28.2% · BB 20.7% · FIP 5.26
2027PROJ	25	MLBARI	57	60	5.03	5.03	27.3%	18.3%	-0.3
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBARI	25	26	4.95	4.94	27.2%	17.3%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBARI	35	37	4.92	4.93	26.9%	16.8%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff60Command40FB velo60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsCaleb Simpson (age 25) · CJ Weins (age 23) · Eduardo Herrera (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 112

ERA5.03

FIP5.03

K%27.3%

BB%18.3%

K-BB%9.1%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5060

CMD3040

K†6565

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Red	7	0	8	42	10	10	0	0%	1.2	23.8%	23.8%	0.0%	0.0%	9.72	4.11	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs Red	7	0	8	42	10	10	0	0%	1.2	23.8%	23.8%	0.0%	0.0%	9.72	4.30	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	51	224	72	44	4	0%	1.3	26.1%	21.7%	4.4%	1.8%	3.18	4.64	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	51	224	72	44	4	0%	1.3	26.1%	21.7%	4.4%	1.8%	3.18	4.64	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	51	224	72	44	4	0%	1.3	32.1%	19.6%	12.5%	1.8%	3.18	3.88	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	0	49	212	74	33	1	0%	1.1	27.2%	16.8%	10.4%	0.7%	4.22	3.33	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	0	49	212	74	33	1	0%	1.1	27.2%	16.8%	10.4%	0.7%	4.22	3.33	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	45	0	49	212	74	33	1	0%	1.1	34.9%	15.6%	19.3%	0.5%	4.22	2.37	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	12	0	14	69	24	13	2	0%	1.2	28.2%	20.7%	7.4%	3.5%	7.71	5.26	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	12	0	14	69	24	13	2	0%	1.2	28.2%	20.7%	7.4%	3.5%	7.71	5.26	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Amarillo Sod Poodles	12	0	14	69	24	13	2	0%	1.2	34.8%	18.8%	15.9%	2.9%	7.71	4.31	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	ARI	57	0	60	253	69	46	7	0%	1.1	27.3%	18.3%	9.1%	2.8%	5.03	5.03	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	ARI	57	0	60	251	68	44	7	0%	1.0	27.2%	17.3%	9.8%	2.8%	4.95	4.94	-0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	ARI	56	0	59	247	66	42	7	0%	1.0	26.9%	16.8%	10.1%	2.9%	4.92	4.93	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	ARI	25	0	26	110	30	19	3	0%	1.0	27.2%	17.3%	9.8%	2.8%	4.95	4.94	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	ARI	35	0	37	156	42	26	5	0%	1.1	26.9%	16.8%	10.1%	2.9%	4.92	4.93	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	267	72	45	8	0%	1.1	27.0%	17.0%	10.0%	2.9%	4.93	4.55	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	228	142	25	0%	1.1	27.0%	17.0%	10.0%	2.9%	4.93	4.55	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		103	0	122	547	146	108	8	0%	1.2	26.6%	19.8%	6.8%	1.5%	4.56	4.17	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		168	0	200	894	238	177	13	0%	1.2	26.6%	19.8%	6.8%	1.5%	4.56	4.17	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hayden Durke (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.03	27.3%	18.3%	2.8%	—	4.94	27.0%	9.9%	118	-0.09	—	—	—
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	87
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	85
Eduardo Herrera R 2024 · 4.13 FIP	24	SU	4.13	25.5%	15.7%	2.2%	.284	4.44	16.7%	-5.0%	31	+0.31	4.13	127	84
Kyle Wilcox R 2019 · 5.16 FIP	25	SU	5.16	25.1%	21.2%	2.7%	.310	5.57	25.1%	-1.5%	13	+0.41	2.78	310	84
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	83
Matt Blackham R 2018 · 3.93 FIP	25	SU	3.93	24.9%	15.7%	1.7%	.236	4.81	25.9%	12.0%	80	+0.88	2.08	187	83
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	83
Christopher Troye R 2024 · 5.46 FIP	25	SU	5.46	24.2%	17.0%	4.1%	.282	5.61	19.1%	-3.8%	30	+0.15	3.42	158	83
Conor Grammes R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	28.6%	16.8%	3.3%	.293	4.52	20.8%	1.1%	128	-0.12	4.11	171	83
Maikel Cleto R 2014 · 4.24 FIP	25	SU	4.24	23.2%	15.2%	2.1%	.256	3.45	25.4%	14.5%	106	-0.79	2.59	185	82
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	81
Tommy Kahnle R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	23.8%	14.8%	2.1%	.284	2.58	30.9%	21.0%	165	-1.55	1.53	527	81
Craig Brooks R 2018 · 3.95 FIP	25	SU	3.95	23.4%	15.1%	1.7%	.260	5.58	31.1%	15.9%	59	+1.63	3.23	229	80
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	80
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	80
Evan Johnson R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	23.6%	17.6%	2.4%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	80
Justin Yeager R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	29.6%	15.8%	3.6%	.230	3.38	19.6%	9.2%	108	-1.20	3.32	265	80
Carter Loewen R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	23.1%	15.0%	2.2%	.312	4.16	20.0%	11.9%	23	-0.10	2.67	145	80
Zac Ryan R 2019 · 3.85 FIP	25	SU	3.85	25.4%	15.3%	1.8%	.266	5.82	22.4%	6.6%	31	+1.97	3.83	184	79
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	27.1%	17.5%	1.10	4.97
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Ken Wright ('70-'74, -0 WAR*)	1.2	79	23.8%*	16.1%*	0.70*	5.24*