Hayden Durke — OGILVIE

Hayden Durke P Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 206 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION14 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 112

ERA5.03

FIP5.03

K%25.7%

BB%18.3%

K-BB%7.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5060

CMD3040

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Red	7	0	8	42	10	10	0	0%	1.2	23.8%	23.8%	0.0%	0.0%	9.72	4.11	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Red	7	0	8	42	10	10	0	0%	1.2	23.8%	23.8%	0.0%	0.0%	9.72	4.11	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs Red	7	0	8	42	10	10	0	0%	1.2	23.8%	23.8%	0.0%	0.0%	9.72	4.30	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	51	224	72	44	4	0%	1.3	26.1%	21.7%	4.4%	1.8%	3.18	4.64	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	51	224	72	44	4	0%	1.3	26.1%	21.7%	4.4%	1.8%	3.18	4.64	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	51	224	72	44	4	0%	1.3	32.1%	19.6%	12.5%	1.8%	3.18	3.88	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	0	49	212	74	33	1	0%	1.1	26.9%	16.8%	10.1%	0.7%	4.22	3.36	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	0	49	212	74	33	1	0%	1.1	26.9%	16.8%	10.1%	0.7%	4.22	3.36	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	45	0	49	212	74	33	1	0%	1.1	34.9%	15.6%	19.3%	0.5%	4.22	2.37	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	12	0	14	69	24	13	2	0%	1.2	28.2%	20.7%	7.4%	3.5%	7.71	5.26	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	12	0	14	69	24	13	2	0%	1.2	28.2%	20.7%	7.4%	3.5%	7.71	5.26	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	ARI	12	0	14	69	24	13	2	0%	1.2	34.8%	18.8%	15.9%	2.9%	7.71	4.14	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	ARI	6	0	6	25	6	5	1	0%	1.0	25.7%	18.3%	7.4%	2.6%	5.03	5.03	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	20	94	30	18	3	—	—	32.4%	18.7%	13.7%	2.8%	6.92	5.19	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	ARI	87	0	91	385	99	61	10	0%	1.0	25.8%	15.8%	10.0%	2.6%	4.82	4.73	-0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	ARI	87	0	91	385	99	58	10	0%	1.0	25.7%	15.1%	10.6%	2.6%	4.72	4.67	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	ARI	85	0	90	379	97	56	10	0%	1.1	25.5%	14.8%	10.7%	2.7%	4.69	4.69	-0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	ARI	83	0	87	367	93	54	10	0%	1.0	25.3%	14.8%	10.5%	2.8%	4.73	4.76	-0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	ARI	79	0	83	351	88	53	10	0%	1.1	25.0%	15.0%	10.0%	3.0%	4.83	4.89	-0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	ARI	74	0	78	330	88	48	10	0%	1.1	26.7%	14.5%	12.2%	3.2%	4.81	4.80	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	ARI	38	0	40	169	44	27	4	0%	1.1	25.8%	15.8%	10.0%	2.6%	4.82	4.73	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	ARI	58	0	61	258	66	39	7	0%	1.1	25.7%	15.1%	10.6%	2.6%	4.72	4.67	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	ARI	67	0	70	296	75	44	8	0%	1.0	25.5%	14.8%	10.7%	2.7%	4.69	4.69	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	ARI	70	0	73	308	78	46	9	0%	1.0	25.3%	14.8%	10.5%	2.8%	4.73	4.76	-0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	ARI	70	0	73	308	77	46	9	0%	1.0	25.0%	15.0%	10.0%	3.0%	4.83	4.89	-0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	ARI	67	0	70	296	79	43	9	0%	1.0	26.7%	14.5%	12.2%	3.2%	4.81	4.80	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		369	0	387	1634	419	244	46	0%	1.0	25.6%	15.0%	10.7%	2.8%	4.76	4.38	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	217	126	24	0%	1.0	25.6%	15.0%	10.7%	2.8%	4.76	4.38	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		103	0	122	547	145	108	8	0%	1.2	26.5%	19.8%	6.6%	1.5%	4.56	4.18	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		168	0	200	894	237	177	13	0%	1.2	26.5%	19.8%	6.6%	1.5%	4.56	4.18	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hayden Durke (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.03	25.7%	18.3%	2.6%	—	4.70	25.6%	10.4%	272	-0.33	—	—	—
Carlos Contreras R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	22.2%	15.6%	2.0%	.271	4.46	11.9%	2.4%	40	+0.17	4.29	107	84
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	84
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	83
Tommy Kahnle R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	23.8%	14.8%	2.1%	.284	2.58	30.9%	21.0%	165	-1.55	1.53	458	83
Andrew McInvale R 2021 · 4.92 FIP	24	SU	4.92	26.4%	16.3%	3.6%	.278	5.66	20.3%	5.0%	58	+0.74	4.92	103	82
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	81
Shane Broyles R 2016 · 4.03 FIP	24	SU	4.03	24.3%	15.3%	1.9%	.328	3.62	26.4%	17.1%	108	-0.41	3.34	218	81
Matt Keating R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	22	SU	4.34	23.3%	14.8%	2.4%	.346	4.63	23.2%	9.1%	157	+0.29	3.38	222	80
Jonathan Sprinkle R 2022 · 4.18 FIP	24	SU	4.18	24.8%	16.3%	2.0%	.331	6.20	17.4%	-5.5%	26	+2.02	3.81	109	80
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	80
Riley Ferrell R 2018 · 4.38 FIP	24	SU	4.38	24.1%	15.6%	2.5%	.333	4.21	23.1%	7.4%	55	-0.17	2.85	175	80
Jake Gilbert R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SU	4.14	22.1%	15.2%	1.8%	.314	4.65	18.2%	2.0%	53	+0.51	4.14	103	80
Aaron Kurcz R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	22.4%	13.6%	1.9%	.331	4.05	16.1%	8.0%	105	+0.07	3.31	213	80
Pat Light R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	20.9%	14.5%	2.1%	.270	4.37	16.4%	2.8%	110	+0.03	4.10	172	79
Tyler Vogel R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	22	SU	4.93	23.4%	14.3%	3.6%	.305	4.48	19.1%	6.1%	135	-0.45	3.84	200	79
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	79
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	79
Nelson L. Alvarez R 2022 · 4.20 FIP	24	SU	4.20	22.2%	16.4%	1.6%	.256	3.69	24.0%	12.8%	139	-0.51	2.58	233	79
Bryce McGowan R 2023 · 4.41 FIP	23	SU	4.41	23.4%	16.0%	2.3%	.327	4.33	19.2%	6.2%	99	-0.08	3.71	178	79
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	23.9%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	87	25.7%	15.5%	1.07	4.80
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Dinelson Lamet ('23)	1.8	61	30.0%	10.7%	1.29	4.66
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04