Hayden Durke
P
Amarillo Sod Poodles
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 206 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION14 act + 90 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133123vR 114
ERA5.04
FIP5.04
K%26.3%
BB%18.6%
K-BB%7.7%
ROS IP90
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 104 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL D-backs Red | 7 | 0 | 8 | 42 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.8% | 23.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.72 | 4.11 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL D-backs Red | 7 | 0 | 8 | 42 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.8% | 23.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.72 | 4.30 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 51 | 224 | 72 | 44 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 26.1% | 21.7% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 3.18 | 4.55 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 51 | 224 | 72 | 44 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 32.1% | 19.6% | 12.5% | 1.8% | 3.18 | 3.88 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 0 | 49 | 212 | 74 | 33 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.5% | 18.4% | 9.0% | 0.8% | 4.22 | 3.57 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 0 | 49 | 212 | 74 | 33 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 34.9% | 15.6% | 19.3% | 0.5% | 4.22 | 2.37 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 12 | 0 | 14 | 69 | 24 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.2% | 20.7% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 7.71 | 5.26 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ARI | 86 | 0 | 90 | 380 | 100 | 71 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.3% | 18.6% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 5.04 | 5.04 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ARI | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.3% | 18.6% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 5.04 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 104 | 449 | 124 | 84 | 12 | — | — | 27.6% | 18.6% | 9.0% | 2.6% | 5.40 | 5.07 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 26.3% | 18.6% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 5.04 | 4.66 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 87 | 0 | 91 | 385 | 101 | 62 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.3% | 16.0% | 10.2% | 2.6% | 4.82 | 4.73 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 87 | 0 | 91 | 385 | 101 | 59 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.2% | 15.4% | 10.8% | 2.6% | 4.71 | 4.67 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 85 | 0 | 90 | 379 | 98 | 57 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.9% | 15.1% | 10.9% | 2.7% | 4.69 | 4.69 | +0.5 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 44 | 27 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.3% | 16.0% | 10.2% | 2.6% | 4.82 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 67 | 40 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.2% | 15.4% | 10.8% | 2.6% | 4.71 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 77 | 45 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.9% | 15.1% | 10.9% | 2.7% | 4.69 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 164 | 0 | 172 | 727 | 190 | 112 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.1% | 15.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 4.73 | 4.31 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 221 | 130 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.1% | 15.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 4.73 | 4.31 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 103 | 0 | 122 | 547 | 146 | 112 | 8 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.7% | 20.5% | 6.2% | 1.4% | 4.56 | 4.22 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 168 | 0 | 200 | 894 | 239 | 183 | 13 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.7% | 20.5% | 6.2% | 1.4% | 4.56 | 4.22 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hayden Durke (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.04 | 26.3% | 18.6% | 2.6% | — | 4.70 | 26.1% | 10.6% | 272 | -0.34 | — | — | — |
| Caleb Simpson R 2027 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.35 | 23.7% | 17.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.98 | 23.5% | 5.1% | 71 | -1.37 | 3.28 | 197 | 84 |
| Carlos Contreras R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.30 | 22.2% | 15.6% | 2.0% | .271 | 4.65 | 11.9% | 2.4% | 40 | +0.35 | 4.30 | 107 | 83 |
| Craig Schlitter R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.76 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .298 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 4.2% | 171 | -0.32 | 4.07 | 222 | 82 |
| Andrew McInvale R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.90 | 26.4% | 16.3% | 3.6% | .278 | 5.86 | 20.3% | 5.0% | 58 | +0.96 | 4.90 | 103 | 82 |
| Tommy Kahnle R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.00 | 23.8% | 14.8% | 1.9% | .284 | 2.56 | 30.9% | 21.0% | 165 | -1.44 | 1.52 | 452 | 82 |
| Eduardo Herrera R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.32 | 25.5% | 15.7% | 2.5% | .284 | 4.44 | 16.7% | -5.0% | 31 | +0.12 | 4.32 | 127 | 81 |
| Dakota Mekkes R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 23.1% | 15.4% | 2.6% | .290 | 4.81 | 16.7% | 1.8% | 70 | +0.30 | 2.99 | 246 | 81 |
| Shane Broyles R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.95 | 24.3% | 15.3% | 1.8% | .328 | 3.42 | 26.4% | 17.1% | 108 | -0.53 | 3.10 | 218 | 81 |
| Jonathan Sprinkle R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.14 | 24.8% | 16.3% | 1.9% | .331 | 5.88 | 17.4% | -5.5% | 26 | +1.74 | 3.68 | 109 | 80 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.88 | 22.4% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .327 | 4.57 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 163 | -0.31 | 3.44 | 224 | 80 |
| Riley Ferrell R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 2.5% | .333 | 4.28 | 23.1% | 7.4% | 55 | -0.15 | 2.83 | 175 | 80 |
| Andre Granillo R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.34 | 24.9% | 15.4% | 2.5% | .228 | 4.07 | 22.6% | 12.7% | 104 | -0.27 | 3.18 | 306 | 80 |
| Wyatt Olds R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.59 | 24.7% | 16.1% | 2.8% | .284 | 4.92 | 24.4% | 9.4% | 110 | +0.33 | 2.39 | 372 | 80 |
| Zane Russell R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.19 | 22.7% | 18.3% | 3.1% | .314 | 5.10 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 71 | -0.09 | 4.28 | 108 | 80 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 22.4% | 13.6% | 2.4% | .331 | 4.29 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 105 | +0.06 | 3.44 | 213 | 79 |
| Magnus Ellerts R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.52 | 26.3% | 19.3% | 2.2% | .319 | 4.72 | 25.2% | 2.3% | 17 | +0.20 | 3.51 | 156 | 79 |
| Gabriel Ponce R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.73 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 3.1% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 161 | 79 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.18 | 22.1% | 15.2% | 1.9% | .314 | 4.59 | 18.2% | 2.0% | 53 | +0.41 | 4.18 | 103 | 79 |
| Logan VanWey R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.06 | 23.9% | 14.0% | 2.2% | .301 | 4.32 | 26.4% | 12.7% | 125 | +0.26 | 3.63 | 172 | 79 |
| Pat Light R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.34 | 20.9% | 14.5% | 2.1% | .270 | 4.39 | 16.4% | 2.8% | 110 | +0.05 | 4.11 | 172 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 90 | 26.2% | 16.3% | 1.02 | 4.81 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |