Cade Austin — OGILVIE

Cade Austin P Beloit Sky Carp

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 230 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION12 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.25

FIP5.25

K%18.2%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%5.7%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	26	1	46	189	50	14	7	4%	1.8	19.6%	8.7%	10.8%	4.9%	3.69	5.25	—
2024	22	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	26	1	46	189	50	14	7	4%	1.8	19.6%	8.7%	10.8%	4.9%	3.69	5.25	—
2024	22	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	26	1	46	189	50	14	7	4%	1.8	26.5%	7.4%	19.0%	3.7%	3.69	3.81	—
2025	23	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	37	1	53	227	57	24	5	3%	1.4	18.6%	12.5%	6.1%	3.4%	3.08	4.98	—
2025	23	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	37	1	53	227	57	24	5	3%	1.4	18.6%	12.5%	6.1%	3.4%	3.08	4.98	—
2025	23	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	37	1	53	227	57	24	5	3%	1.4	25.1%	10.6%	14.5%	2.2%	3.08	3.54	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	7	1	12	49	13	4	3	14%	1.7	—	—	—	—	3.09	—	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	7	1	12	49	13	4	3	14%	1.7	—	—	—	—	3.09	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	MIA	7	1	12	49	13	4	3	14%	1.7	26.5%	8.2%	18.4%	6.1%	3.09	5.25	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	MIA	5	0	6	24	4	3	1	0%	1.1	18.2%	12.5%	5.7%	3.1%	5.25	5.25	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	17	73	17	7	4	—	—	23.8%	9.6%	14.2%	5.1%	3.79	1.72	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	MIA	65	0	68	287	55	33	9	0%	1.0	19.1%	11.7%	7.4%	3.1%	5.09	5.05	-0.4
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIA	65	0	68	287	56	33	9	0%	1.0	19.6%	11.4%	8.2%	3.1%	5.00	4.97	-0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIA	64	0	67	283	56	32	9	0%	1.0	19.8%	11.4%	8.4%	3.1%	4.97	4.98	-0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIA	62	0	65	274	54	32	9	0%	1.0	19.8%	11.5%	8.3%	3.2%	5.01	5.05	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	MIA	28	0	29	122	23	14	4	0%	1.0	19.1%	11.7%	7.4%	3.1%	5.09	5.05	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIA	43	0	45	190	37	22	6	0%	1.0	19.6%	11.4%	8.2%	3.1%	5.00	4.97	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIA	50	0	52	220	43	25	7	0%	1.0	19.8%	11.4%	8.4%	3.1%	4.97	4.98	-0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIA	52	0	55	232	46	27	8	0%	1.1	19.8%	11.5%	8.3%	3.2%	5.01	5.05	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		172	0	181	764	150	88	24	0%	1.1	19.6%	11.5%	8.1%	3.2%	5.01	4.63	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	166	97	27	0%	1.1	19.6%	11.5%	8.1%	3.2%	5.01	4.63	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		70	3	111	465	92	49	20	4%	1.6	19.8%	10.5%	9.3%	4.3%	3.33	5.12	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		127	5	200	840	167	88	36	4%	1.6	19.8%	10.5%	9.3%	4.3%	3.33	5.12	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cade Austin (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.25	18.2%	12.5%	3.1%	—	5.00	19.5%	8.0%	203	-0.25	—	—	—
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	91
Matt Lollis R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	18.5%	12.2%	2.7%	.237	4.95	19.2%	4.7%	56	+0.39	4.56	120	91
David Trexler R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	17.7%	13.4%	2.4%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.18	4.44	100	90
Ryan Ledbetter R 2016 · 4.76 FIP	24	SU	4.76	18.5%	12.3%	3.0%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	4.76	124	89
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	89
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	89
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	88
Jack Sinclair R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	24	SU	4.89	19.2%	12.5%	3.3%	.258	3.77	21.0%	9.9%	181	-1.12	2.88	305	87
Matthew Gorst R 2019 · 4.66 FIP	24	SU	4.66	16.2%	11.3%	2.7%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	199	87
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	87
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	87
Hunter Dula R 2023 · 4.86 FIP	24	SU	4.86	20.1%	12.1%	3.5%	.301	4.06	19.8%	10.2%	37	-0.80	3.91	132	87
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	86
Justin Garcia R 2017 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	17.5%	12.2%	4.0%	.265	4.84	14.7%	0.1%	14	-0.54	4.06	164	86
Morgan McSweeney R 2022 · 5.16 FIP	24	SU	5.16	18.0%	13.9%	3.3%	.278	4.36	16.0%	6.0%	107	-0.80	3.20	213	86
Scott Oberg R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	17.0%	11.2%	3.4%	.273	2.92	22.8%	15.6%	188	-2.04	2.54	302	86
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	86
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	86
Reid Schaller R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	20.2%	13.1%	2.8%	.298	3.89	22.0%	11.4%	90	-0.71	3.61	186	86
Davison Palermo R 2023 · 4.32 FIP	23	SU	4.32	19.0%	12.4%	2.3%	.246	5.02	18.8%	6.8%	174	+0.70	4.32	218	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	19.3%	11.7%	1.22	5.06
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77