Jefferson Pena — OGILVIE

Jefferson PenaSS ACL D-backs

Age 23 R/R 5'8" / 160 lbs ROK HR -11% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 104 proj PA

wRC+†57

AVG/OBP/SLG.194 / .260 / .290

PA104

HR2

K%33

BB%7

ISO97

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	17	ROK	DSL D-backs 2	—	167	152	31	5	0	0	11	38	2	9	7	204	267	237	504	33	267	23	7	234	-13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	ACL D-backs Red	—	190	162	40	9	2	1	24	54	4	7	5	247	358	346	704	99	364	28	13	326	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	ACL D-backs Red	—	178	154	54	11	3	1	18	43	6	15	2	351	438	481	919	130	482	24	10	412	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	Visalia Rawhide	—	323	280	56	8	0	2	31	85	7	16	5	200	296	250	546	50	277	26	10	256	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK	ACL D-backs	—	102	87	17	3	0	0	13	37	1	7	0	195	307	230	537	34	340	36	13	258	-9	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs 2	—	167	155	20	3	0	0	8	45	2	9	7	129	182	148	330	19	170	27	5	149	-13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Red	—	190	171	29	6	1	1	15	78	4	7	5	170	253	234	487	64	306	41	8	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Red	—	178	161	41	8	2	1	11	62	6	15	2	255	326	348	674	93	392	35	6	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	323	288	48	7	0	1	23	115	7	16	5	167	245	201	447	35	259	36	7	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	102	92	10	2	0	0	8	56	1	7	0	109	188	130	319	22	272	55	8	155	-9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs 2	—	167	155	20	3	0	0	8	45	2	9	7	129	182	148	330	19	179	27	5	149	-13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs 2	—	167	152	31	5	0	0	11	38	2	9	7	204	267	237	504	33	267	23	7	234	-13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Red	—	190	171	29	6	1	1	15	78	4	7	5	170	253	234	487	64	304	41	8	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs Red	—	190	162	40	9	2	1	24	54	4	7	5	247	358	346	704	99	364	28	13	326	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Red	—	178	161	41	8	2	1	11	62	6	15	2	255	326	348	674	93	408	35	6	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs Red	—	178	154	54	11	3	1	18	43	6	15	2	351	438	481	919	130	482	24	10	412	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	323	288	48	7	0	1	23	115	7	16	5	167	245	201	447	35	270	36	7	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	—	323	280	56	8	0	2	31	85	7	16	5	200	296	250	546	50	277	26	10	256	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	102	92	10	2	0	0	8	56	1	7	0	109	188	130	319	22	278	55	8	155	-9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	—	102	87	17	3	0	0	13	37	1	7	0	195	307	230	537	34	340	36	13	258	-9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs 2	—	167	155	20	3	0	0	8	45	2	9	7	129	182	148	330	19	170	27	5	149	-13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Red	—	190	169	29	6	1	1	15	78	4	7	5	172	253	237	489	65	306	41	8	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Red	—	178	159	41	8	2	1	11	62	6	15	2	258	326	352	678	94	392	35	6	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	323	290	48	7	0	1	23	115	7	16	5	166	245	200	445	34	259	36	7	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	102	92	10	2	0	0	8	56	1	7	0	109	188	130	319	22	272	55	8	155	-9	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	20	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	323	290	48	7	0	1	23	115	7	16	5	166	245	200	445	34	259	36	7	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	102	92	10	2	0	0	8	56	1	7	0	109	188	130	319	22	272	55	8	155	-9	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	ARI	0%	274	250	48	9	1	4	19	90	3	7	2	195	262	292	555	97	283	33	7	253	57	-14	+1	+0	+3	+6	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	ARI	30%	151	137	28	5	1	3	11	49	2	4	1	201	268	309	577	108	285	32	7	261	63	-7	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	ARI	44%	257	233	47	9	1	5	19	82	3	7	2	205	273	321	593	116	286	32	7	268	67	-10	+1	+0	+3	+6	-0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	ARI	51%	331	299	62	11	2	7	25	103	4	9	2	207	276	329	605	122	286	31	8	273	71	-12	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	ARI	52%	372	337	70	13	2	8	28	115	4	10	3	208	277	331	608	122	286	31	8	274	72	-13	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	ARI	53%	396	359	76	14	2	9	30	122	4	10	3	209	277	330	607	122	285	31	8	274	71	-13	+1	-1	+4	+9	-0.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	ARI	53%	404	367	76	14	2	9	30	125	4	10	3	206	275	324	599	118	284	31	7	270	69	-15	+1	-1	+4	+9	-0.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	ARI	56%	406	369	75	14	2	8	30	127	4	10	3	204	271	317	588	113	283	31	7	266	66	-16	+1	-2	+4	+9	-0.5
2028	24	MLB CTX	ARI	30%	45	41	9	2	0	1	3	15	1	1	0	206	273	318	591	112	295	33	7	267	63	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	ARI	44%	113	103	21	4	1	2	8	36	1	3	1	210	277	329	607	119	296	32	7	273	67	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	ARI	51%	168	152	32	6	1	4	12	52	2	4	1	213	281	338	618	125	296	31	7	278	71	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	ARI	52%	195	176	38	8	1	4	15	60	2	5	1	214	282	339	621	125	296	31	8	279	72	-7	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	ARI	53%	211	191	40	8	1	4	16	65	2	5	1	214	282	339	621	125	295	31	8	279	71	-7	+1	-0	+2	+5	-0.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	ARI	53%	212	192	40	8	1	4	16	66	2	5	2	212	279	333	612	121	294	31	8	276	69	-8	+0	-1	+2	+5	-0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	ARI	56%	229	208	43	9	1	4	17	72	2	6	2	209	276	325	601	117	292	31	7	271	66	-9	+0	-1	+2	+5	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1173	1063	223	45	6	23	87	366	12	29	8	210	277	328	605	119	294	31	7	276	57	-43	+3	-2	+13	+25	-0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	124	25	3	13	48	203	7	16	4	211	278	329	607	119	295	31	7	276	57	-24	+1	-1	+7	+14	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	3381	3063	601	109	16	54	245	1113	46	117	37	196	266	295	561	99	286	33	7	252	57	-91	+5	-4	+26	+52	-1.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	589	115	21	3	10	47	214	9	22	7	195	265	292	557	97	285	33	7	252	57	-24	+1	-1	+7	+14	-0.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Garrett Hampsonlast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	29	65	234	296	352	+10	+10	3.9	3.9
/162	664	11	24	+3.6	+3.7	1.4	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	1.9	1,278	27	33	206	271	323	+14	+12	0.4	0.4
/162	664	14	17	+7.1	+6.2	0.2	pk7: 1
#5Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jefferson Pena (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	194/260/290	96	283	2	3	33%	7%	57	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Steven Baron 2014 · A	23	35	40→45	53→50	34	180/213/275	96	257	7	9	33%	4%	34	-3.5	216/263/300	84	296	5	9	27%	6%	59	-1.7	236/292/311	74	314	4	8	24%	7%	69	-0.4
✕E.J. Exposito 2024 · A	23	37→33	41→50	50→55	43	177/262/268	90	293	9	14	39%	9%	53	-2.1	189/246/321	132	265	16	17	34%	6%	59	-1.7	184/237/328	144	240	19	19	32%	6%	55	-1.5
✕Bryson Ware 2024 · A	23	39→32	44→45	50	40	196/260/308	112	283	12	11	34%	7%	61	-1.5	189/249/307	118	281	13	11	36%	6%	56	-1.9	182/242/307	125	267	15	11	36%	6%	51	-1.4
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	36	39→40	49→50	44	178/253/255	77	262	8	14	33%	8%	47	-2.6	205/278/293	88	286	6	12	28%	9%	64	-1.3	205/285/293	88	279	5	13	26%	9%	65	-0.6
✕Sammy Infante 2024 · A	23	37→26	42→45	50→55	37	183/252/282	99	292	10	15	39%	7%	52	-2.2	200/263/295	95	313	8	15	36%	7%	59	-1.7	164/228/246	82	264	6	18	38%	6%	32	-0.9
✕Kendall Simmons 2023 · A	23	36	47→50	49→50	38	188/250/319	131	265	15	10	34%	6%	60	-1.6	206/269/349	143	296	16	9	34%	6%	74	-0.6	201/265/348	147	289	17	7	35%	6%	70	-0.3
✕Taylor Snyder 2018 · A	23	36→33	43→50	47→50	32	184/226/296	112	275	11	13	37%	4%	45	-2.7	192/238/311	119	300	12	12	38%	5%	53	-2.1	186/235/335	149	266	18	12	36%	5%	56	-1.3
✕Jason Lopez 2022 · AA	24	39	42→50	54→45	41	194/257/295	101	291	10	12	35%	8%	56	-1.9	208/270/316	108	304	10	9	33%	8%	66	-1.1	167/227/257	90	235	8	0	31%	7%	34	-0.6
✕Sicnarf Loopstok 2017 · A	24	43→36	42→50	50	38	209/268/316	107	294	9	13	31%	5%	65	-1.2	211/280/359	148	299	17	9	34%	7%	80	-0.1	199/274/363	164	277	21	7	34%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Blake Hunt 2022 · AA	23	36	43→50	49→40	39	181/242/290	109	276	11	4	37%	7%	50	-2.3	203/259/322	119	277	12	4	30%	6%	63	-1.3	215/280/358	143	272	16	1	27%	7%	77	-0.1
✕Ben Cowles 2024 · A	24	41→40	43→45	52→50	39	198/267/307	109	311	11	16	37%	7%	63	-1.4	210/271/322	112	295	9	16	30%	6%	68	-1.0	206/265/314	109	283	9	17	29%	6%	61	-1.1
✕Johan Lopez 2023 · AA	23	39	43→45	51→55	40	194/269/303	109	291	11	13	35%	7%	63	-1.3	205/275/304	99	311	8	12	34%	8%	65	-1.2	176/264/251	75	285	3	11	36%	10%	48	-0.5
✕David Sheaffer 2019 · A	24	35	42→50	52→40	39	182/228/283	101	243	10	7	29%	5%	42	-2.9	209/254/329	120	292	12	5	31%	5%	63	-1.4	190/235/299	108	268	11	1	32%	5%	47	-0.8
✕Chase Strumpf 2021 · A	23	44→37	41→50	49→45	42	208/283/313	105	305	8	7	32%	7%	71	-0.8	199/294/337	138	307	14	5	37%	10%	81	-0.1	184/291/336	152	287	18	4	38%	11%	77	-0.2
✕Nick Quintana 2021 · A	23	39→40	39→45	49→45	36	186/240/271	86	298	6	9	38%	6%	44	-2.8	181/264/286	105	253	11	5	31%	9%	58	-1.7	163/255/263	100	223	10	3	30%	9%	47	-1.3
✕Grae Kessinger 2022 · AA	24	38→30	42→45	48→50	41	192/253/286	94	259	11	15	30%	6%	53	-2.1	198/271/310	112	262	13	14	28%	8%	66	-1.1	186/264/278	92	250	9	8	27%	8%	55	-0.8
✕Chris Roller 2019 · A	22	39	41→45	51→55	42	190/265/292	102	283	8	14	34%	8%	59	-1.6	204/267/311	107	290	7	12	30%	6%	63	-1.3	179/266/281	102	259	10	19	32%	8%	57	-1.0
✕Jack Brannigan 2023 · A	22	42	43→50	48→50	43	204/277/310	106	298	11	13	33%	8%	68	-1.0	202/279/357	155	294	19	17	36%	8%	80	-0.2	186/267/343	157	262	20	18	36%	8%	70	-0.5
✕Max George 2019 · A	23	36→39	44→45	53→55	44	182/265/298	116	243	11	20	29%	7%	62	-1.4	190/276/301	111	283	11	20	34%	8%	66	-1.1	149/258/287	138	249	17	20	43%	10%	55	-0.8
✕Raul Beracierta 2022 · A	23	42	44→45	50	37	203/257/328	125	309	11	8	36%	6%	64	-1.3	224/268/345	121	328	14	5	34%	5%	72	-0.7	230/268/353	123	329	17	1	34%	4%	70	-0.5

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps