Jefferson Pena — OGILVIE

Jefferson PenaSS ACL D-backs

Age 22 R/R 5'8" / 160 lbs ROK HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 135 proj PA

wRC+†36

AVG/OBP/SLG.177 / .249 / .246

PA135

HR1

K%32

BB%8

ISO69

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE53

scouting grade only

SPEED59

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL D-backs 2	—	167	156	21	3	0	0	7	52	2	9	7	135	182	154	336	19	198	31	4	155	-23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK	DSL D-backs 2	—	167	152	31	5	0	0	11	38	2	9	7	204	267	237	504	33	267	23	7	234	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	ACL D-backs Red	—	190	171	29	6	1	1	15	78	4	7	5	170	253	234	487	64	304	41	8	220	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	ACL D-backs Red	—	190	162	40	9	2	1	24	54	4	7	5	247	358	346	704	99	364	28	13	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	ACL D-backs Red	—	178	161	40	8	2	1	11	61	6	15	2	248	320	342	662	93	394	34	6	280	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	ACL D-backs Red	—	178	154	54	11	3	1	18	43	6	15	2	351	438	481	919	130	482	24	10	412	173	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	Visalia Rawhide	—	323	288	47	7	0	1	23	112	7	16	5	163	242	198	440	35	260	35	7	203	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	Visalia Rawhide	—	323	280	56	8	0	2	31	85	7	16	5	200	296	250	546	50	277	26	10	256	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK	ACL D-backs	—	102	91	9	2	0	0	9	59	1	7	0	99	188	121	309	22	281	58	9	151	-26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK	ACL D-backs	—	102	87	17	3	0	0	13	37	1	7	0	195	307	230	537	34	340	36	13	258	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	MLB	ARI	—	135	122	22	4	1	1	10	44	2	3	1	180	254	254	508	74	265	33	7	232	36	-10	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	ARI	34%	200	180	35	7	1	3	15	62	3	4	1	194	268	294	562	100	269	31	8	248	48	-12	+0	+0	+2	+6	-0.4
2028	24	MLB	ARI	46%	307	276	54	11	1	5	24	93	4	7	2	196	270	297	567	101	272	30	8	259	56	-15	+1	+0	+3	+9	-0.3
2029	25	MLB	ARI	52%	373	335	68	13	2	7	30	111	5	9	2	203	278	316	595	113	274	30	8	265	61	-17	+1	+0	+4	+11	-0.1
2030	26	MLB	ARI	54%	415	374	76	15	2	8	33	123	5	10	2	203	277	318	595	115	274	30	8	267	63	-17	+1	+0	+4	+12	-0.0
2027	23	MLB	ARI	34%	69	63	11	2	0	1	5	21	1	2	0	175	246	254	500	79	271	30	7	241	42	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	24	MLB	ARI	46%	142	128	25	5	1	2	11	43	2	3	1	195	270	297	566	102	274	30	8	251	51	-8	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.2
2029	25	MLB	ARI	52%	193	174	36	7	1	4	15	57	2	4	1	207	277	328	605	121	276	30	8	257	55	-10	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.2
2030	26	MLB	ARI	54%	225	202	41	8	1	4	18	67	3	5	1	203	278	312	590	109	276	30	8	260	57	-11	+1	+0	+2	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	629	567	113	22	3	11	49	188	8	14	3	199	272	307	579	108	275	30	8	255	53	-33	+2	+0	+7	+18	-0.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	117	23	3	11	51	194	8	14	3	200	273	305	578	106	276	30	8	255	53	-34	+2	+0	+7	+18	-0.7
Career	—			—	2390	2154	401	76	10	27	177	795	39	87	27	186	260	268	529	82	278	33	7	238	40	-161	+7	+0	+26	+68	-6.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	109	21	3	7	48	216	11	24	7	186	260	268	528	82	279	33	7	238	40	-44	+2	+0	+7	+18	-1.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL D-backs 2	—	167	152	31	5	0	0	11	38	2	9	7	204	267	237	504	33	267	23	7	234	37	-12	-1	—	—	+5	-0.8
2022	18	ROK	ACL D-backs Red	—	190	162	40	9	2	1	24	54	4	7	5	247	358	346	704	99	364	28	13	326	107	+2	-1	—	—	+5	0.7
2023	19	ROK	ACL D-backs Red	—	178	154	54	11	3	1	18	43	6	15	2	351	438	481	919	130	482	24	10	412	173	+15	+2	—	—	+5	2.2
2024	20	A	Visalia Rawhide	—	323	280	56	8	0	2	31	85	7	16	5	200	296	250	546	50	277	26	10	256	54	-17	+1	—	—	+9	-0.6
2025	21	ROK	ACL D-backs	—	102	87	17	3	0	0	13	37	1	7	0	195	307	230	537	34	340	36	13	258	56	-5	+1	—	—	+3	-0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	763	12	17	196	267	295	+8	+9	-0.7	-0.4
	/162	664	10	15	196	267	295	+7.1	+7.8	-0.6	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jefferson Pena (OGILVIE)	22	20→25	30→35	54→59	53	177/249/246	69	265	1	3	32%	8%	36	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ismael Alcantara 2021 · A	22	44→28	38→45	57→50	41	201/270/281	80	317	5	16	36%	8%	53	-1.5	213/271/338	125	320	13	13	35%	6%	68	-0.5	202/261/313	111	301	12	16	35%	6%	53	-0.8
✕Nick Meyer 2021 · A	24	35	36→40	52→50	40	172/231/233	61	252	4	15	32%	6%	24	-3.6	212/280/299	87	278	9	14	25%	8%	62	-0.9	207/281/290	83	267	10	16	25%	8%	57	-0.6
✕Chris Roller 2018 · A	21	37	37→50	53→55	45	178/254/255	77	243	4	12	27%	8%	40	-2.4	208/276/322	114	297	8	11	31%	7%	66	-0.6	179/262/313	134	284	16	16	40%	8%	57	-0.7
✕Nelson Medina 2022 · A	21	39	38→45	53→50	47	187/270/270	84	274	5	15	31%	9%	51	-1.7	185/255/279	94	336	7	13	43%	8%	46	-2.0	134/194/209	75	291	5	16	52%	6%	-1	-1.8
✕Raul Siri 2018 · A	23	39	38→40	51→50	42	192/251/271	80	265	6	11	29%	7%	42	-2.3	199/264/283	84	349	5	9	41%	7%	51	-1.7	149/237/238	89	307	4	14	47%	8%	28	-0.6
✕Claudio Finol 2023 · AA	23	38	37→40	50→45	40	187/240/263	77	259	4	8	29%	5%	35	-2.8	204/263/296	92	292	8	10	31%	7%	53	-1.5	181/246/258	77	260	9	12	32%	7%	35	-0.7
✕Kenedy Corona 2022 · A	22	43→40	39→45	52→55	39	205/259/290	85	285	6	20	29%	5%	50	-1.8	206/268/333	127	294	13	23	33%	7%	66	-0.6	198/265/322	124	280	13	27	32%	7%	58	-0.9
✕Christian Cairo 2023 · A	22	39→46	38→40	53→60	49	182/289/262	80	287	6	16	35%	11%	58	-1.2	202/293/281	79	297	5	23	30%	10%	63	-0.8	214/304/283	68	303	4	34	27%	10%	66	-0.4
✕Mike Martin 2016 · A	23	40	35→30	52→55	42	183/275/240	57	297	3	13	36%	8%	46	-2.0	217/272/277	60	282	3	17	23%	6%	51	-1.7	231/276/282	51	286	2	23	19%	5%	51	-0.6
✕Jose Curpa 2022 · A	22	40	36→30	58→55	46	184/272/253	69	286	2	24	33%	10%	47	-1.9	206/292/291	85	310	6	17	32%	9%	65	-0.7	198/299/263	65	296	5	23	31%	10%	59	-0.3
✕Steven Baron 2014 · A	23	34	40→45	53→50	34	176/209/269	93	256	6	9	34%	4%	22	-3.7	215/263/298	83	301	5	9	28%	6%	53	-1.5	240/300/311	71	326	5	6	26%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Felix Cabrera 2011 · A	22	35	34→30	51→50	44	165/257/217	52	256	1	15	33%	8%	32	-3.0	196/250/265	69	281	4	13	29%	6%	39	-2.5	220/261/284	65	299	3	19	26%	5%	46	-0.5
✕Grolmann Gonzalez 2010 · A	21	40	38→40	52→55	42	193/255/277	85	272	4	9	29%	7%	45	-2.1	209/265/303	94	303	6	7	31%	6%	56	-1.3	218/266/319	101	307	7	4	30%	6%	58	-0.2
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	49→40	40	194/261/274	80	272	6	7	29%	6%	47	-1.9	217/294/301	84	283	8	4	25%	7%	69	-0.4	216/298/285	69	279	7	1	23%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Frankeny Fernandez 2017 · A	20	36	38→40	53→60	42	174/248/255	81	275	5	19	36%	8%	37	-2.6	193/258/268	75	281	5	10	31%	7%	44	-2.1	172/238/215	43	239	3	6	27%	7%	20	-1.1
✕Dalvy Rosario 2022 · A	22	41	38→40	54→55	42	197/258/274	77	271	6	14	29%	7%	45	-2.1	193/239/285	92	285	9	19	34%	5%	40	-2.4	182/224/268	86	273	9	22	35%	4%	27	-2.1
✕Victor Soto 2010 · A	21	39	37→45	56→60	40	188/240/265	77	263	3	22	29%	5%	35	-2.8	199/243/272	73	293	3	14	31%	5%	37	-2.6	187/218/237	50	279	0	18	32%	3%	15	-0.8
✕Nate Easley 2018 · A	22	42	39→45	52→50	43	203/263/292	90	285	6	13	30%	7%	52	-1.6	195/246/293	98	305	8	11	36%	6%	45	-2.1	199/245/313	114	286	9	10	33%	6%	46	-1.3
✕Jawuan Harris 2019 · A	22	40→24	40	51→55	42	188/270/283	95	293	7	14	35%	8%	54	-1.4	158/251/236	78	308	5	19	45%	9%	35	-2.8	116/220/180	64	246	5	26	49%	10%	6	-2.4
✕Logan Warmoth 2019 · A	23	45→40	36→45	54→55	41	208/271/276	68	305	3	10	31%	7%	51	-1.7	189/263/266	77	312	4	14	37%	8%	46	-2.0	195/273/297	102	277	11	24	31%	8%	57	-0.7